ND OCT 19 19
SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO
HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
After years in which every idiot
trader made money regardless of how they were positioned, mean reversion is
finally coming... and it will be a bitch.
Back on September 8, just hours
before September's notorious "quant crash"
that sent "momentum" and "growth" stocks tumbling and
"value" and "most-shorted" names surging...
See Chart:
... alongside
a sharp spike in interest rates which crashed the "market-neutral"
momentum index...
See Chart:
... and which also crippled Long/Short hedge funds who had ridden the
growth vs momentum divergence
to unprecedented extremes only to suffer in the fallout of the trade's
reversal, sending Goldman's Hedge Fund
VIP basket tumbling as stock with a high hedge fund ownership concentration hit
a 1+ year low...
See Chart:
Goldman writes on Friday, after
being mostly negative YTD, macro surprises have turned positive for the first
time since April 2019, if only marginally, as Goldman's "global CAI Innovations index" has turned sharply higher in
recent weeks, even if it remains negative.
See Chart:
A less subjective
interpretation of incoming data, if one coming sentiment surveys, confirms that
an inflection point was recently reached, as the global manufacturing
depression appears to be finally bottoming out; to wit, after the longest slowdown in
global manufacturing PMIs on record, PMI prints have finally posted an increase
in the last 2 months.
See Chart:
More importantly, as the chart below - which
plots the 3-month correlation of popular rotation trades with real yields -
shows, the extreme negative correlation, or "asymmetry" between
real yields and "consensus trades" has never been greater!
See Chart:
In short, as Goldman concludes,
in the near-term it seems increasingly difficult for G3
central banks to surprise in a dovish direction without weaker growth first.
See Chart:
Well, not quite, because as
Goldman admits, whereas "good news" is the biggest near-term risk to
consensus trades, more bad news could end up being just as bad. Or, as Glissman
writes, "until a meaningful growth pick-up comes, markets remain vulnerable to negative
shocks, and as a result the range could get 'fatter.' With the fading search for yield, the correlation of the VIX with US 10-year
TIPS yields has turned sharply negative.
See Chart:
This is notable, because a similar extreme
correlation between the VIX and TIPS yields was observed during the Tech Bubble
Burst (2001/02), the GFC (2008), the Euro area crisis (2011) and the EM/Oil
crisis (2015/16).
Goldman points out that - at
least in theory, and in a world where central banks don't manipulate all
signals - "S&P 500 volatility tends to
increase with weaker US growth" yet since this is anything but a normal
world, as Goldman's US Current Activity Indicator has declined YTD, the VIX has
barely budged.
See Chart:
This will change, because as
Glissman writes next, "shocks from policy,
politics and geopolitics could quickly drive more volatility: there is a
growing gap between the VIX and global/US economic policy uncertainty indices
given increased concerns around geopolitical developments in the Middle East
and Hong Kong, as well as domestic politics in the US."
See Chart:
In
short, after years in which every idiot trader made money regardless of how
they were positioned, mean reversion is finally coming... and it will be a
bitch.
….
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"Such
risks, including in particular those related to money laundering, illicit finance, and consumer and investor
protection..."
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The earth is about to get much
cooler and so too is the earth’s
economy...
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
We are
living through a phantasmagoric psychodrama generated by the dishonest national
political press.
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"A line of inquiry based on accusations made by George
Papadopoulos..."
=====
"She’s
the epitome of everything wrong
with America and, in fact, the world and Tulsi Gabbard just stood
up and laughed at her for still
thinking she was the Emperor when in reality she’s The Joker..."
====
"It's
past time to give the American
people the real debate they deserved in 2016."
====
...if
California doesn't act soon, the state could become (further) living proof that creating a
liberal utopia by hiking taxes and adding regulation is nothing more than a pipe dream...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
What is
happening in Syria, following yet another Russia-brokered deal, is a massive geopolitical game-changer...
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State of emergency in
effect, helicopters & armored vehicles patrol the city amid
'metro protests' as masked student
rioters in running war with police...
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Beijing’s biggest support package ever for President Erdogan arrives at a critical
time...
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Oops, that wasn't supposed to happen!
====
Following a political backlash over details of its plans to make Iran effectively a client state
through various multi-layered oil and gas deals, China has switched its attention to Iran’s equally oil and gas-rich
neighbor, Iraq.
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"There is a global crisis. The
government needs to help out the industry. Everywhere people are helping
because they understand that there are difficulties now."
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN
ESPAÑOL
- Chile: Piñera suspende el aumento del pasaje del metro en Santiago
- Decretan el toque de queda en Santiago de Chile tras protestas masivas
- Boris Johnson pide formalmente a la UE prorrogar el Brexit en una carta sin firmar
- Una semana violenta en México pone en entredicho la capacidad del Estado: ¿cuál es la ruta de acción?
- De Nueva York a Sídney: aterriza con éxito el vuelo sin escalas más largo del mundo
- Piñera decreta el estado de emergencia en Valparaíso y Concepción
- Trump y López Obrador acuerdan una estrategia para detener el tráfico de armas a México
- Sexto día consecutivo de protestas en Cataluña Spain
- Entre la mentira y la soberbia: ¿los 'pecados capitales' de los candidatos presidenciales en Argentina? Cecilia González
- Occidente cree que el operativo turco en Siria socava el funcionamiento de la OTAN
- Keiser Report El fracaso de "los lloricas de Wall Street" a la hora de conseguir más dinero gratis de la Reserva Federal
- El Zoom Cataluña: Ira independentista
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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