jueves, 17 de octubre de 2019

ND OCT 17 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  OCT 17 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


The IMF is increasingly concerned that such conditions have “encouraged investors to take more risks in a quest to achieve their return targets”, with “valuations stretched” in some important markets and economies
----
----


... each dollar of global debt generated only $0.42 of GDP growth in the major economic sectors, which was down 11.1% from ten years ago.
See Chart:

World Dollar Liquidity
The Fed’s balance sheet constriction reduced world dollar liquidity, which is defined as the monetary base plus foreign central bank holdings of U.S. Treasuries at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. This quantity effect also served to underpin strength in the U.S. dollar, which has had the result of draining foreign central bank holdings of U.S. Treasuries impacting foreign financial markets.

World Trade Volume
See Chart:

The more restrictive monetary conditions spread worldwide as the velocity of money fell sharply in all their countries to levels far below the United States. Not surprisingly, global economic growth moderated in concert with U.S. economic moderation. World trade volume, which has fallen over the past year, clearly points to the universal nature of current global downturn and the result has been a disinflationary pricing of goods.

Debt Overhang
See Chart:

Despite the evidence that monetary policy works with long lags, the Fed appears to be waiting for a downturn in the coincident economic indicators before attempting to “get ahead” of where the market has priced interest rates. The lags between initial inversion and recession have been variable but the market is presently within the historical lagged periods. The current overrestraint of Fed policy is why 5, 10, and 20-year Treasury security yields have not set new record lows, but it is only a matter of time.

Slumping Marginal Revenue Product of Debt
See Chart:

For the current three-year period, using the partially available data for 2019, each dollar of global debt generated only $0.42 of GDP growth in the major economic sectors, which was down 11.1% from ten years ago. This deterioration was greater in all the major foreign economies than in the United States.

The largest percentage decrease in debt productivity, of more than 38%, was registered in China over the past ten years. The decline in the marginal revenue product of debt in Japan, the United Kingdom (U.K.) and Europe were all more than two and one-half times greater than in the United States. Over the current three-year period, the debt productivity in the U.S. was $0.40, versus $0.38, $0.36 and $0.34 in the Euro currency zone, the U.K. and China, respectively.

Outlook
The global over-indebtedness has clearly restrained growth, and therefore has had a profound disinflationary impact on every major economic sector of the world. This fact, coupled with an overzealous U.S. Central Bank have created the conditions for an economic contraction in the U.S. and abroad. This has also created a worldwide decline in inflation and inflationary expectations.
A quick and dramatic shift toward greater accommodation by the Fed could begin to shift momentum from contraction toward expansion. However, policy lags are long and slow to developtherefore despite the remarkable decline in long term yields this year, we are maintaining our long duration holdings. A shift towards shorter duration portfolios would be appropriate when the forward-looking indicators of expansion, in the U.S. and abroad, begin to appear.
….
----
----


Surprise!! After Q3's "use it or lose it" spending spree sent US macro data soaring unilaterally, October has begun with a collapse...
See Chart:


US equities were mixed with Trannies and Small Caps best (squeezed) while S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq were all scrambling to hold gains...
See Chart:


The VIX term structure has steepened dramatically in the last week...
See Chart:


The Dollar tumbled for the 3rd straight day (down 6 of last 7 days)...
See Chart:


Dollar weakness supported commodities across the board with Silver and Crude best on the day (but only PMs are higher on the week)...
See Chart:


And finally, the most recent surge in stocks since the start of October has been a major short-squeeze...
See Chart:


Which has plummeted overall short-interest to a critical level that has, in the past, led to crashes in stocks...
See Chart:

….
----
----


"billionaires should not exist" ... and probably won't in America if Sanders is elected.
See Chart:
----
----


The problem today is not that people are not “saving more money,” they are just spending less as weak wage growth, an inability to access additional leverage, and a need to maintain debt service restricts spending...
See  Chart:
….
----
----


What’s different now is the effects of the trade war are starting to creep into the U.S. macro picture -- and optimism over a deal may not be able to offset economic headwinds.
See Chart:
….
See more interesting charts at:
----
----


US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio



"Mr. Trump could even be present for the entire spectacle." 
====


Chicago teachers are striking for the third time in seven years. Over 25,000 teachers and 7,000 support staff will be on strike while 300,000 students will be left in the lurch. 
====


There is a growing national consensus that that U.S. economy is heading for big trouble, and this is causing a lot of people to cut back on spending...
====


"Most people were in denial [in 2008]... just like they are today..."
====


"Truth is always the enemy of power. Exposure of power’s motivations, depredations, and corruption never serves power’s ends... What if, instead of suppressing the truth, a regime could render it irrelevant and not have to worry about it?"
====


Big Brother has been rifling through your personal info – never mind the Fourth Amendment!
====


...the U.S. shale boom is slowing and businesses are preparing for a bad-case scenario where the slowdown extends.
====


The Affordable Care Act continues to be anything but affordable...
====


It "may be the best thing that ever happened to the Kurds." 
====


US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo



Washington doesn’t understand that our intervention only makes matters worse. The best way to help the Kurds and everyone else in the region is to just come home...
====


“Erdogan is resorting to weapons that are globally banned such as phosphorus and napalm,” an official statement said.
====


"A pause in military operations for 120 hours" - or 5 days - while the US facilitates an "orderly withdrawal" of its forces and the SDF from a 'safe zone' 20 miles deep.
====


These are not conspiracy theories. These are not even secrets. These are facts. But because they are inconvenient facts, they get labeled “Kremlin talking points” by those whose job it is to defend the status quo.
====


Critics fear Caracas will use the position to "thwart investigations into its own alleged abuses"..
====


Syrian military sources believe the US will continue to block the Assad government from accessing eastern Syria's largest oil fields
====


Iran has claimed that it has footage of last week’s attack on its oil tanker while off the Saudi Arabian Jeddah port, and it proves that the attacks were carried out by Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States...
====


SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

----
----


NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
----
----
ALAI ORG

====

RT EN ESPAÑOL

----
----


COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

----
----


GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

----
----


DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

----
----
PRESS TV   BLOCKED
----
====

No hay comentarios:

Publicar un comentario