miércoles, 30 de octubre de 2019

ND OCT 30 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  OCT  30 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

 ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

All over the country, economic activity is slowing down, and this is hitting many small businesses particularly hard...
There should no longer be any doubt that the U.S. economy is slowing down, but most Americans still don’t realize what is happening because the major news networks are completely focused on the endless impeachment drama that is currently playing out in Washington.  And without a doubt that is important, because it threatens to literally rip our entire nation in two.

Not since the last recession have we seen numbers this bad.  The “mini-boom” that we witnessed for several years has now turned into a “bust”, and very tough times are ahead.
The following are 14 signs that the U.S. economy is steadily weakening…
#1 U.S. business hiring has fallen to a 7 year low.
#2 Consumer confidence in the United States has now declined for 3 months in a row.
#3 Defaults on “subprime” auto loans are happening at the fastest pace that we have seen since 2008.
#4 The percentage of “subprime” auto loans that are at least 60 days delinquent is now higher than it was at any point during the last recession.
#5 Vacancies at U.S. shopping malls have hit the highest level since the last recession.
#6 Destination Maternity has announced that they will be closing 183 stores as the worst year for store closings in U.S. history just continues to get worse.
#7 The Cass Freight Index has now fallen for 10 months in a row.
#8 U.S. rail carload volumes have plunged to the lowest level in 3 years.
#9 In September, orders for class 8 heavy duty trucks were down 71 percent.
#10 Tesla’s U.S. sales were down a whopping 39 percent during the third quarter of 2019.
#11 The bad news just keeps rolling in for the real estate industry.  Last month, existing home sales in the United States declined by another 2.2 percent.
#12 New home prices have fallen to the lowest level in almost 3 years.
#13 According to one recent report44 percent of all Americans don’t make enough money to cover their monthly expenses.
#14 A recent survey found that more than two-thirds of all U.S. households “are preparing for a possible recession”.
All over the country, economic activity is slowing down, and this is hitting many small businesses particularly hard.
Continue reading at:
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After Fed Chair Powell commented that "serious" inflation is required to push them to raise rates, bonds and stocks rallied along with gold as the dollar dumped...
See Chart:

Basically promising that "everything is awesome" and it it's not, we'll cut/ease and make it awesome again
The yield curve flattened significantly, somewhat signaling a policy error...
See Chart:

Trannies were ugly on the day (and Small Caps opened weak), but The Fed rescued most majors from red on the week...
See Chart:

The odds of a trade deal slipped lower...
See Chart:

Bank stocks started to outperform on the goldilocks comments, catching down to the yield curve...
See Chart:

Treasury yields were lower on the day (and all back lower on the week)...
See Chart:

With the long-end notably outperforming...
See Chart:
UST 30Y Spread

The dollar down or reversed on Powell's inflation comments...
See Chart:

Finally, we note that December is now pricing in just a 23% chance of a rate-cut, and 76% odds of no change...
See Chart:
Odds of Dec rate Cut

Which arguably leaves stocks pricing in far more easing that Fed Funds...
See Chart:
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EL FINAL DE LA BANKA AMERICANA: estafas + estafas
"...nothing will change even if the Supplemental Leverage Ratio (SLR) does get changed..."
See Chart:
JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon has been running around Washington claiming that mid-September’s repo rumble was the result of the post-crisis regulatory environment. He now says that his bank had the spare cash and was willing to cash in on double digit repo rates but it was government rules which prevented that from happening. It’s unclear (but we can, and I will, guess) why he didn’t make the same claim and warn everyone on Friday, September 13, before the seasonal low point in liquidity that everyone knew was there.
You probably won’t be surprised to learn that this isn’t the first time Wall Street has complained about these very same regulations. They’ve been against them from the very beginning. What’s different now is that they have a very public event about which nobody has any real answers to rally support. It all sounds pretty plausible (it always sounds plausible, yet never explains most of the facts).

Suddenly, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin seems to be siding with the banks. Having spoken directly with Mr. Dimon recently, Secretary Mnuchin today says:
The banks have raised an issue around intra-day liquidity, and that is something that makes sense for regulators to look at.

That issue they’ve raised is something called the Supplemental Leverage Ratio, or SLR. It was created and applied to Global Systemically Important Bank organizations, or G-SIB. The FDIC, in particular, had pushed for the SLR because quite rightly the agency wasn’t very thrilled about the prospects for having to absorb potential deposit liabilities of huge banks sporting enormous leverage getting shut out of wholesale funding markets.
The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 demonstrated conclusively this wasn’t a trivial possibility.
To sum up: Wall Street has hated almost every single post-crisis regulation that has been implemented, though in some cases they’ve been right to do so. However, there is absolutely no reason to believe that the e-SLR or G-SIB rules had anything to do with the repo market outbreak in September 2019.
There was no opportunity, therefore, to pin the regulation on something bad.
The only thing that changed, in its aftermath, was that the public for once had no choice but to look at the repo market and the funding environment. With attention now fixed and no plausible answers being offered, all of a sudden it’s now evidence against a regulation banks have been actively opposing for years.

Shocking, I know.
See Chart:

As is the fact that May 29, 2018, had more to do with these repo market woes than anything about the SLR and the like. If that particular constraint was such a major issue in September, why wasn’t it in May 29 the prior year when the Treasury market began to embarrass Mr. Dimon and his prediction of 4% and even 5% 10-year UST yields? Repo rates were elevated at that time, too.
Dimon opposed the SLR (and LCR) when he fully believed things were really good, and he opposes the SLR now that he’s not so sure and he has something bad with which to blame. And he will oppose the SLR tomorrow if things really do turn around, and especially if they don’t.
See Chart:
Money Marked Equivalents

So, is it that Dimon had no idea what was really going on during 2018 at his own bank, and has therefore come around to thinking some version of the SLR is to blame for getting 2019 all wrong? Or, is it because he had and has no real idea of the liquidity system that after being caught totally off-guard by pretty much everything he is cynically seeking to settle a longstanding score about the one thing he does know well?
See Chart:
FED Reserve Balance Sheet

When I came up with the zoo analogy to try to describe what’s going on, I didn’t realize just how well it would fit the times. What’s worse, the financial media will now be filled with stories about how it must be that Dimon is right! A REAL ZOO.
See Chart:
The real GDP Problem

Therefore, NOTHING WILL CHANGE EVEN IF THE SLR DOES GET CHANGED.
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

Legalities don’t count.. POLITICS  DO: once the nation read all accusations: bye bye Tramp’ re-election .  Trump’ know it, that is why he is preparing WW3
"I have never in my life seen anything like what happened..."
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The last song of zombie Bolton. Who want to lose time listening a failed warmonger ?
"I am not part of whatever drug deal Sondland and Mulvaney are cooking up..."
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"...Vindman isn't some kind of whistle-blowing hero. He's just another mindless cog in the wheel of Empire talking his own book and thereby abetting the political mob that is now threatening the very constitution he was sworn to uphold."
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

RU said: everything is ready.. we will respond  US attack.. if they start of WW3
 For the first time ever, a seaborne Bulava ballistic missile was test-fired from the latest Project Borei-A strategic missile-carrying submarine Knyaz Vladimir...”
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Perhaps RU submarines are surrounding US and key points of NATO.  US did it with RU. IF SO: MAD will prevail.. the whole humanity will pay the costs of WW3.  US secession will be inevitable.. Different State-regions will break apart. Top speculative  investors  wanted so. Trump is going to the trash of history.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

-Trump Dodges Accountability in Iraq, Suggests Region Owes US ‘Billions’  Inhumane kill of millions in Iraq  and Trump said they owe Billions. Is ‘our’ POTUS talking? Ugly smell
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
Fracasó el neoliberalismo, crisis política, violencia y el despertar popular. Hernán Torreblanca Contreras. -La rebelión estudiantil y el quiebre de los consensos
QT:  Cuando fracasara el fascismo US  que corta dia a dia fuentes Alt de INFO
REBELION BLOCKED
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

-Syria:  An Imperfect Bit of Statecraft  By Philip Giraldi
-Baghdadi Story Reveals Divided — and Broken  By Matt Taibbi  B-suicide?
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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