ND
OCT 20 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
THE
VERDICT IS IN: "NEGATIVE RATES ARE A HUGE NEGATIVE FOR SAVERS, LOW-INCOME
PEOPLE, AND INVESTORS"
"Being
very unconventional, I think we have to be very careful of the possible
negative effects of negative rates. I would be very, very careful in going
further in this direction." -
Italy Central Bank chief, Ignazio Visco
With the IMF's annual meeting now concluded, few topics
discussed during the past week which saw the IMF
downgrade its outlook for the global economy to the lowest GDP since the global
financial crisis..
See Chart:
IMF Global Economic Growth Outlokk
Below we summarize
some of the key quotes from last week's IMF conference on the topic of negative
rates, courtesy of Reuters:
MORGAN STANLEY’S CEO
JAMES GORMAN:
“What Europe is experiencing
with negative rates, obviously is really bad. Not just for the financial sector, but for
the broader economy. Do I worry about them being too low? Listen, the Fed’s job
is to manage the excesses and to prop up the weaknesses in any economic cycle.
There’s no rulebook that Jay Powell’s got on his shelf behind saying at this
point, with this information, you should do X. There’s a judgment call. I personally
would be more cautious bringing rates down because you are using up one of the
tools that you have... At this point, I
would probably price one more cut for the rest of the year, and then I would
really sit back, watch and wait.”
JPMORGAN CEO JAMIE
DIMON ON LESSONS FROM THE CASE IN EUROPE:
“I think this is a lesson. I think they did it early on to save Europe
basically from coming apart with the monetary union. We don’t know. I think
they’ll be writing books about this in 50 to 75 years.
“[Negative rates] has huge negatives for savers and
low-income people, for investors and for the capital markets. I, personally, would not buy debt below zero…
There’s something irrational about it…I’m not sure the monetary rules are the
same for a negative rate as they are for a positive one.”
TOBIAS ADRIAN,
FINANCIAL COUNSELLOR AND DIRECTOR OF THE IMF’S MONETARY AND CAPITAL MARKETS
DEPARTMENT:
“Remarkably, the amount of
government and corporate bonds with negative yields has increased to about $15
trillion. Moreover,
markets expect about one-fifth of government bonds will have negative yields
for at least three years. With rates staying lower for longer, financial
conditions have eased, helping contain downside risks and support global growth
for now. But
loose financial conditions have encouraged investors to take more risks in a
quest to achieve their return targets.”
DANIEL PINTO
CO-PRESIDENT AND CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER OF JP MORGAN, SPEAKING AT THE
INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCE:
“I think one of the problems with negative (interest) rates is that it
tends to have less effect today than a few years ago. Before this current
interest rate environment, if rates were going to be so low for so long, we
would have started to get worried about the future. But today, as the
population gets older and their priorities change, the distribution of rate
changes don’t affect the economy as much. For our business, we prefer high
interest rates more than low interest rates, but in general, it doesn’t make
much of a difference.”
“In the insurance business and pension
business, it makes more of a difference because they have certain liabilities
that become more difficult to manage as rates go lower and lower.”
RAY DALIO, FOUNDER
OF BRIDGEWATER ASSOCIATES:
Dalio said he was worried perpetually low or negative interest rates
was creating a “crazy or odd” reality in which debtors barely had to service
their debt.
“Interest rates become negative or near
negative so the debt service payments for the interest rate are down a lot. And
it’s almost a situation where there’s guaranteed debt rollover.”
Continue reading at
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"Only
four times has the average marginal cost of production been below the commodity
index price: in 2001 it was -5%
below, 2008 it was -7% below, 2015 it was -12% below, and now it’s -2%."
Read this:
“When
commodity prices fall below production costs, you kind of have an embedded put
because producers cut supply, and demand draws down excess inventories. Longer-term, producers usually need roughly a 20% margin to
continue capex and production.”
“From 1970-2009 the return for the commodity index (SPGSCI)
and the S&P 500 both annualized at roughly +10%” said the same CEO. In the
1970s the S&P 500 annualized at +6.7% in nominal terms while the SPGSCI
annualized at +21.2%. In the 1980s, the S&P annualized at +12.0% (SPGSCI
+10.7%). In the 1990s the S&P 500 annualized at +14.1% (SPGSCI +3.9%). In
2000-2009 the S&P 500 annualized at +10.1% (SPGSCI +5.1%).
“Then QE kicked in. And from 2010-2018 the S&P 500
annualized at +11.7% while the commodity index annualized at -7.7%. So now commodity prices are -23%
below where they were in the depths of the worst financial crisis since the
Great Depression.”
“Why are people so uninvested in commodities?” asked the
CEO, repeating my question. The Middle East is at war, yet oil trades 5% below
the worldwide average marginal cost of production according to his estimates.
While gold and silver trade roughly 50% above production costs, wheat and cotton trade 30% below their marginal cost to grow. And when you average out 21 major
commodities, they’re about as cheap as they ever get relative to their marginal
production costs.
“If I’ve learned one thing in all these years, it’s that people rarely look for value in commodities, they buy when
things start going up,” he said.
….
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As JPMorgan
admits, the ECB’s net QE purchases alone would have been insufficient to offset
the impact of the BoJ’s ongoing QE tapering due to its effort to steepen
its domestic curve. That's why the
Fed had to s
See Chart:
Extreme liquidity policies keep us
bullish
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"If they crash the
economy, they are going to crash those New York banks. That’s the only
restraint on the elites. That’s their ultimate nuke...They will wipe us out in order to get rid of Trump."
====
He must be
dangerously close to 'Russian asset' status...
====
This is only a partial list of what we've lost to globalism, cheap credit and the Tyranny of
Price which generates the Landfill Economy...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
State media is describing it only as "a fire in a
canal carrying waste from Iran’s Abadan oil refinery."
====
Incoming ECB Head Christine Lagarde Says Trump Should Stop Criticizing
Powell With Tweets
====
Fragile ceasefire already in question as both sides accuse the other of
repeat violations.
….
La misma estupidez le dijo
Trump a AMLO y ya son muchas las cabezas de USAnos que se han cortado en Mx..se teme que fueron los
narcos y
se les está ofreciendo pacto sobre el tráfico de armas. Por supuesto
esta oferta es ridicul
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" There is a problem of diagnosis... Even the most optimistic assumptions are unlikely
to change the trend of weak global growth."
….
Not WIN-WIN SITUATION, and we already know that the US will to be the loser
====
Despite
Trump arguing it's “time to bring our soldiers back home” – they'll simply jump from one war zone to
another.
…..
IRAQ? Were we committed brutal
genocide? IF so, now is time of tit-for-
tat
====
As US exits Syria, Pompeo in Israel describes "fundamental right"
and "obligation" of Tel Aviv to act militarily...
….
For Pompe is easy to promote war. Does ISR want his county be wiped out of
the map?
====
What is happening in Syria, following yet another Russia-brokered deal,
is a massive geopolitical
game-changer...
====
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-US
Forces Evacuating Wives of Daesh Militants From Syria's Northeastern Al-Hawl
Camp US-ISIS alianza pegada con mocos de mujeres: es parte
final del terror aliado
-NATO
Created Working Group for Monitoring Turkish Operation in Syria La vanguar de NATO en el Middle-East ha sido
derrotada. ERDO solo gano una C por su trabajo en Siria, la C de
CERDO y a Cerdogan lo único que le queda es retirarse. Si se queda: pone en
peligro a su país; hacia allí apuntan los misiles de Siria y aliados. El otro perdedor de esta
aventura fue Israel… adiós al soñado petróleo de Siria.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- El Gobierno británico activa un plan de emergencia por si el país abandona la UE sin acuerdo
- Pompeo afirma que Israel tiene "el derecho fundamental" de actuar en Siria tras la retirada de EE.UU.
- 'Escudo de oro': Rusia asegura que puede soportar una fuerte caída de los precios del petróleo
- Piñera suspende el aumento del pasaje del metro en Santiago de Chile
- La Cámara de Diputados de Chile aprueba el proyecto de ley que anula la subida del pasaje del metro de Santiago
- De Nueva York a Sídney: aterriza con éxito el vuelo sin escalas más largo del mundo
- Una bola de fuego que sobrevoló Japón en 2017 es un fragmento de un asteroide "potencialmente peligroso"
- Cierran los centros de votación para las elecciones generales de Bolivia
- "Era patriótico y creía en este país": Deportarán a El Salvador a un veterano de guerra del Ejército de EE.UU.
- Ecuador recupera la calma luego de las violentas protestas
- Una delegación del US pactó con Turquía el cese del fuego en el norte de Siria
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