ND AUG 7
19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
A manic day in stocks and bonds
today with an early collapse panic-bid back to unchanged as precious metals soar
and commodities crash.
The extreme vol prompted a
warning from Guy Haselmann, chief executive officer of FETI Group LLC and
Scotia-bank’s former head of capital market strategy, who
said global markets are moving
closer to a Minsky moment,
or a sudden collapse of asset prices. FETI is a Summit, New Jersey-based company that
works with portfolio managers.
“An extended period
of low volatility like we have seen in recent
years significantly increases leverage and risk-seeking
behavior,” he said in an interview.
“When volatility turns like it has, people often need to sell
assets to meet margin calls. That’s what makes this so combustible”
"Just one more waffer-thin quantitative easing...?" What
could go wrong?
A
weaker than expected (though fractionally stronger than 7) Fix by the PBOC
unleashed hell globally once again overnight...
See Chart:
CNY Fix
vs. Offshore Yuan
But,
thanks to rate-cuts from New
Zealand, Thailand, and India combined with Chicago Fed President Evans comments
suggesting more easing and QE4EVA prompted some
PPT-sponsored panic-bids in US equities.
"...you
could take the view that the risks now have gone up, and as we think we’re
going to get closer to the zero lower bound with higher probability, that would
also call for more accommodation."
Nevertheless, investor sentiment has
collapsed from euphoric greed just a month ago to "extreme fear" ...
See Chart:
FED and
Greed Index
What
emotion is driving the market now? [The market doesn’t exist, we’ve
speculat +]
In the
US, markets were mixed with Nasdaq best as desperate panic bids appeared to
lift stocks back to unch (and to top the farce off a super-spike at the close)...
See Chart:
VIX was
smashed back to a 19 handle...
See Chart:
Stocks
and bonds decoupled overnight, with stocks tumbling back to bonds reality, but
then the US cash open sparked stock-buying, bond-selling all day...
See Chart:
Nasdaq
Futs vs. 10Y Yield
Treasury
yields tumbled again overnight but ramped back higher after Europe
closed...ending the day practically unchanged
See Chart:
30Y
Yield plunged to near record lows...
See Chart:
The
Dollar roundtripped like everything else to end unch...
Gold
surged to new six-year highs...
See Chart:
Oil prices collapsed, crude
build sent WTI prices back to a $51 handle...BUT then late in the day, Saudis
takes to halt oil price drop back above $52..
See Chart:
Finally,
with $15 trillion (and rising tonight) in negative-vielding debt, bullion and
bitcoin appear the preferred safe haven against policy-maker panic...
See Chart:
Still,
global bonds and stocks remain massively decoupled...
See Chart:
So can
you guess who will be right in the end?
….
SOURCE:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-07/bonds-gold-surge-stocks-purge-fear-reaches-2019-extremes
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Even speculators wants to avoid
the funeral of US Econ..But rethorically
Financial markets are raising risks
of recession. Equities continue to slide and volatility has spiked, but the
alarm bell is loudest in rates markets, where the yield curve inverted the most
since just before the start of the financial crisis.
Financial
markets are raising risks of recession. Equities continue to slide and
volatility has spiked, but the alarm bell is loudest in rates markets, where
the yield curve inverted the most since just before the start of the financial
crisis.
Not all
indicators are as bearish as the yield curve, however. While equities
have sold off rapidly since last week, the sell-off late last year was much
larger only to recover just as rapidly.
Within the economic data, the
near-term indicators are even less downbeat than the lower
frequency signals coming from the low unemployment rate and recent decline in
the profit margin.
Bottom
line, we stick with our macro
indicators and see the odds of US (and global) recession in the coming 12
months closer to 40% (the average of our near-term and medium-term
indicators).
See
Chart:
Probability of US recession
over next 12 months
At the same time, we continue
to flag downside risk to our modal growth outlook as the latest data and likely
hit to sentiment from the recent trade war escalation and financial market
moves suggest global growth running below our forecast
of 2.5% in 2H19.
….
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More and more Americans are getting themselves into so much
debt that it becomes impossible to
pay back their loans. In the month of July,
there was a 5% increase in the
number of bankruptcies filed in the United States.
In a “booming” economy, this is
worrisome. Far too many Americans are spending way too much more than they make. There
were 452,797 filings in the first seven months of 2019, up from 450,568 during
the same period last year. There were roughly 1,000
more consumer bankruptcies at this point this year, compared to the same point
last year, the organization added. This rise in bankruptcies is coming
off a ten year low.
Southern states seem to be affected the most as well, according
to Market Watch. Alabama had the highest per capita rate, with
5.61 filings per 1,000 people, followed by Tennessee (5.39) and Georgia (4.31),
Mississippi (4.25) and Nevada (3.79).
Samuel Gerdano, ABI’s executive
director, said:
According to a
new survey
from Bankrate of about 3,000 Americans, 23% of people who were
adults when the recession started in December 2007 say they are now financially worse off than
they were before the recession hit. That
percentage amounts to just under 50 million Americans. Another 25% say they are
doing the “same.” In all, just over half believe their “overall finances” are
better than before.
“Americans were and continue to be in a degree
of denial of the financial crisis and Great Recession,” said Mark Hamrick, Bankrate’s senior
economic analyst according
to a report by Yahoo Finance. “One of the constant themes
that presents itself
in the data is that Americans are still digging out in many ways from that
experience.”
“While some have
managed to prosper in the decade since, there are still tens of millions who are struggling to
even get back to where they were before the economy took a turn for the worse,”
added Hamrick. Could that mean that the economy is not all that robust? We
certainly think so. But speaking
the truth is a revolutionary act in times of deceit.
Not only are 25% of Americans worse off than they
were before the Great Recession, but many others are also using credit to
buy essentials,
such as food. Millions more
people are buying essential goods and services on credit. Consumers had $14
trillion in household debt (and rising) in the first quarter of
2019, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York data. That is up from
approximately $13 trillion in debt consumers held back in 2008.
….
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"If the US escalates the tariff fight further (i.e. 25% tariffs on
the remaining $300bn of Chinese imports) or takes other additional measures
against China, it would not be inconceivable for USD-CNY to rise to 7.50
or 7.70."
The French bank's EM strategist
Jason Daw, is correct there is much more pain to come for the emergers, and
especially the yuan, which after sliding below 7.00 for the first time ever
this week, is now expected to plummet as low as 7.70, a level which would
certainly prompt currency war retaliation from the Trump administration.
As Daw writes overnight, the US
and China are increasingly engaged in an entrenched tit-for-tat escalation
phase, and as he correctly predicts "one of the two sides probably need to reach their pain limit before there
is a chance of a de-escalation phase."
Meanwhile, "the Chinese
authorities can deploy their formidable defenses to stop or slow the
depreciation", as they may want to see the impact
on capital flows before permitting another leg higher. However, as the
SocGen strategist cautions, the upside risks to USD-CNY have intensified and he
now forecasts USD-CNY modestly higher than our previous forecasts (to 7.10, 7.15, 7.20, 7.25) over the next four
quarters.
Worse, if the US escalates the
tariff fight further (i.e.
25% tariffs on the remaining $300bn of Chinese imports) or takes
other additional measures against China, "it would not be inconceivable for USD-CNY to
rise to 7.50 or 7.70."
If Daw is right, the trade is
simple: buy either the USDCNH or the USDCNH +12 month forward outright, which
as of today is pricing in that the Offshore Yuan will
only drop to just 7.1335 in 12 months time.
See Chart
CNH 12
Months forward Outright
That said, even the bearish FX
strategist concedes that it is important to remember that the Chinese authorities have strong policy tools and it is
likely that CNY will only weaken as much and as quickly as they want it
to. In other words, if China really wants
to devalue its currency, it can, and will do so with relish. The
question is what Trump will do to provoke such a devaluation.
….
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Government is preparing for a farm
crisis; this
time, it could be worse than the 1980s.
President Trump on Tuesday
morning hinted at
what appears to be yet another farm bailout (the third one must be the charm), as farm bankruptcies soar
and agricultural debt loads become unbearable.
A farm crisis on par to what
was observed in the early 1980s could be coming, especially since the US Senate
passed a bill late last week that makes it more accessible for farmers with larger debt loads to file for bankruptcy
protection, reported
Reuters.
See Chart:
% of
Commercial Agricultural Loans more than 30 days past due
Republicans
and the Trump administration are preparing for Farmageddon with
new interventionist measures that will hopefully cushion farmers from
retaliatory tariffs by China.
See Chart:
Shrinking
Soy
Reuters
notes that not everyone is excited about the change. The American
Bankers Association told lawmakers to oppose the bill and warned "credit
terms would tighten considerably for many family farms, with a disproportionate
impact on the most distressed farms most in need of credit," according to
a memo sent to House lawmakers on July 25.
A Reuters investigation of the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation showed that major
Wall Street banks are now winding down risky lending to farmers as farm incomes
decline and delinquency rates soar.
Government is preparing for a farm crisis; this time, it could be worse
than the 1980s.
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Why not? It’s not yours.
….
Are Banks free to do
whatever they want? IF so, take out your
USD now. Put it in safer inside your house or family house. Or by gold coins or kriptos
====
The
significance of the spike is difficult to overstate...
There are moments of inflection in the market when the phrase 'prices
have changed more than the facts' becomes particularly apropos and today's
Treasury rally ostensibly qualifies. We'll caution here
however that the devolving macro narrative is very consistent with with
such a repricing.
The overnight round of Asian central bank cuts combined with the weakest
yearly change in German industrial production since 2009 are symptoms of
changing expectations rather than the root cause of the move. Nonetheless,
10-year German yields dipped as low as -0.613% to a fresh record low. The selloff in domestic equities offers echoes of Q4 2018,
with the primary difference being the Fed just cut rates versus the December
hike-too-far.
Our primary concern linked to the sharp selloff in
stocks is a spike in equity vol that tightens financial conditions to rapidly
price in the Fed's series of three quarter-point-eases…
See Chart:
Financial conditions vs. Market- implied Fed rate
change
An inter-meeting ease isn't on our radar; although
the futures market shows the August contract trading with an implied rate of
2.115% -- 1.5 bp of easing (or a 6% chance of a quarter-point emergency move).
What is even more compelling are the odds of a 50 bp cut in September
jumped >50% -- 54% depending on how one slices it or 38.5 bp net easing. To say the Fed's fine tuning ambitions just became a lot more
complicated would be an understatement.
See Chart:
Sept Rate- Cut Odds
We've included a chart of the absolute 5-day change in 30-year yields
dating back to 1990 to illustrate just how dramatic the
recent 40 bp rally in the long bond has been. Every time the market
moved in a comparable fashion, 'something has changed'
was invariably the takeaway.
See Chart:
If there was ever any question whether or not there
is a significant shift in investor expectations afoot, the performance of the
long bond should make it abundantly clear -- particularly in light of the proximity to the August refunding
auctions.
Remember when supply events warranted a concession? So pre-crisis.
In keeping with our efforts to demonstrate the
relevance of the magnitude of the recent move, we offer a chart of 3-month 30-year swapt implied volatility -- in both percentage and basis point terms.
See Chart:
3 months 30 years swaption implied volatility
The significance of the spike is difficult to
overstate.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-07/why-today-echoes-great-recession-euro-crisis-2016-election
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The ruling
is just one element of the infighting that has gripped former Gov. Rosselló's
New Progressive Party...
====
... present voters are willing to steal from
future generations, many of whom do not yet get to vote, or are poorly
informed or involved in the political process.
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Is it true that the US is arming
both sides? Or only Paks?
PM Khan
said he would take "all
possible options" in support of Kashmir's Muslim-majority
population.
====
For
the first time since March 2008,
PBOC fixed the yuan weaker than 7 per USD.
See Chart:
But, as Nomura notes, it could be set to get worse. [ To whom?
China plays Chess ]
If it turns out that actual economic momentum in China has flagged to
the extent suggested by the deterioration in Chinese equity sentiment, past patterns suggest that there is still scope for RMB to weaken further.
See Charts
[ What variables include his sample? Fixing values
to an index is not real research.. I guess Nomura is becoming too
sentimental, or subjectivist. So: lack
of objectivism ]
The possibility remains that the yuan could depreciate even more
against JPY and EUR than against USD, judging by the relative shift lower in
the RMB Basket versus USDCNH, it seems that pressure is
starting.
See Chart:
The PBOC decision comes as trend-following CTAs are chasing downside in
Hang Seng futures and H-share futures at an increasing pace. They have restored their existing net short
positions in Hang Seng futures to 48% of the YTD peak (June), and to 67% for
H-share futures, which suggests room to build these positions further.
[
The fact is that Nomura & US pressure doesn’t affect China, but to US
mainly. Check the recent moves in US Economy. US got desperate &
incoherent: Zombie Empire? ]
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-07/china-fixes-yuan-weaker-7-first-time-over-11-years
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Venezuela denuncia retención de barco con 25.000 toneladas de soja en el Canal de Panamá por bloqueo de EE.UU.
- ¿Otro conflicto por energía? Las posibles consecuencias de las nuevas sanciones de EE.UU. contra Venezuela
- Los vaivenes del comercio entre México y China
- Gob VEN no asistirá a reuniones de diálogo con la oposi en Barbados
- Maduro acusa a Trump de promov racismo blanco tras masacres en US
- Puerto Rico: La secretaria de Justicia Wanda Vázquez se juramenta como gobernadora de la isla
- Arrestan a 680 inmigrant en plantas procesadoras de alimentos en Misisipi
- Pakistán reducirá relaci diplomát y suspendel comercio con la India
- Analista político: "Trump ha buscado los caminos inciertos en Venezuela"
- Keiser Report llego el "fin de neoliber y globalización y el inicio de la desdolarización"
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-
Mass Shootings and Political Misuse of Them
Have Unintended Consequences
By Paul Craig Roberts
By Paul Craig Roberts
-
Feeding the Israel Lobby: Congress Gives the
Jewish State Whatever it Wants
By Philip Giraldi
By Philip Giraldi
-
Inside the Submissive Void: Propaganda,
Censorship, Power and Control
By Greg Maybury
By Greg Maybury
-
An Open Invitation to Tyranny By Paul Craig Roberts
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COUNTER
PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics &
Geopolitics
John G.
Russell The
“Feel Better” Presid: Making Racism Fashionable Again
J W.
Whitehead The
Rise of the American Gestapo
Nia
Harris et.al: the
Stubborn Truth About Employment and the Defense Industry
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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PRESS
TV
Resume of Global News described
by Iranian observers..
- A tale of two Dominics
- India, Pakistan ‘clash in Kashmir’ at delicate moment
- Abbas to congressmen: Palestine won’t take US ‘dictates’
- Caracas cancels talks with opp. to protest US asset freeze
- Pentagon chief in Mongolia to up pressure on Russia, China
- Tehran-Ankara train resumes after 4 years
- China urges US to stop bullying other countries
- Israeli forces use tear gas to kill Palestinians
- Maduro supporters rally against US blockade
- PROGRAMS
- The African Free Trade Zone: Winners and Losers
- Women’s no go zone
- Zarif slams UK roll in US economic terrorism
- Turkey's dubious role in Syria
- Israel pollution
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