ND AUG 26
19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO
HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
KEEP IT SILENCE!
NOTE - LOOK AT THE CLOSE!!!
Some
serious Gamma sparked chaos at the close as VIX puked back below 20...
See Chart:
ES, 1 Min vs. $VIX..X.X 1min
But
remain well down from Thursday's close...
See Chart:
Futures
show the real action as algos lifted markets overnight then snapped higher when
Trump talked of "talks"... BUT The Dow could not break above its
61.8% retracement of the Friday plunge...
See Chart:
The Dow
bounced off its 200DMA...again
See Chart:
But the
yield curve collapsed (2s10s closed at its most inverted since May 2007)... 3rd
day of closing inversion in a row...
See Chart:
UST 2s 10s Spread
ut it's
the 3m10Y spread that matters most and that has also collapsed to new cycle
lows...
See Chart:
UST
3m10Y Spread
The
Dollar surged back today, erasing Fib 61.8% of the Friday plunge...
WTI
tumbled to a $52 handle briefly overnight, before algos ripped it up to erase
Friday's loss, before it dumped all the way back down (reportedly in possible
US-Iran tension easing)...
See Chart:
Finally, as Bloomberg's Vincent
Cignarella notes, the "McCulley Indicator" is rolling over. In markets speak, that means that the Capital
Goods New Orders Non-defense Ex Aircraft & Parts series has been falling
since November 2017 and is currently at 0.3%. (The
measure is named for former PIMCO managing director Paul McCulley, who viewed IT AS A RECESSION INDICATOR.)
See Chart:
“Mc
Culley” indicator
Confirmed:
Over the last 20 years, when the data print has
crossed below zero on a three-month Y/Y basis, a recession has followed.
….
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Is this the beginning of the end?
"Something is going on, and that’s causing I think a total rethink of central banking and all our cherished
notions about what we think we’re doing," Bullard
admitted. "We just have to stop thinking that next year things are going
to be normal... They’ve priced in that there’s going to be
uncertainty, there are going to be tweets, there are going to be threats and
counter-threats,” said the St Louis Fed president. "And that’s the way
it’s going to be."
When he said that "past instances of very low rates
have tended to coincide with high risk events such as wars, financial crises,
and breaks in the monetary regime" -
incidentally, the same low rates
that for years central bankers said would save the world and now we learn have doomed it instead, below are 20 blunt questions (with a few implied
answers in the questions themselves) for Central Bankers, courtesy of DB's Alan
Ruskin, as they prepare to be swept away by the tsunami of history:
- If the Philips curve is so flat, and there is no serious alternative model to explain/forecast inflation, is inflation targeting even feasible? What are the intermediate targets to hit the end inflation target?
- If goods Inflation drivers are dominated by global variables like international growth/capacity, how can a Central Bank that influences country specific variables pretend to target inflation?
CONTINUE READING AT:
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...and
trying to undo the damage through never-ending
monetary and fiscal stimulus will not be an option...
There are three negative supply shocks that could
trigger a global
recession by 2020. All of them reflect political factors affecting
international relations, two involve China, and the United States is at the
center of each. Moreover, none of them is amenable to the traditional tools of
countercyclical macroeconomic policy.
The first potential shock stems from the Sino-American trade
and currency war, which escalated earlier
this month when US President Donald Trump’s administration threatened
additional tariffs on Chinese exports, and formally labeled China a currency
manipulator.
The second concerns the slow-brewing cold war between the US and China
over technology. In a rivalry
that has all the hallmarks of a “Thucydides
Trap,” China and America are vying for dominance over the industries of the
future: artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, 5G, and so forth. The US has
placed the Chinese telecom giant Huawei on an “entity list” reserved for
foreign companies deemed to pose a national-security threat. And although
Huawei has received temporary exemptions allowing it to continue using US
components, the Trump administration this week announced that it was adding an additional 46 Huawei affiliates to the
list.
The third major risk concerns oil supplies. Although oil prices have fallen in
recent weeks, and a recession triggered by a trade, currency,
and tech war would depress energy demand and drive prices lower,
America’s confrontation with Iran could have the opposite effect. Should that conflict escalate into a military conflict,
global oil prices could spike and bring on a recession, as happened during
previous Middle East conflagrations in 1973, 1979, and 1990.
All three of these
potential shocks would have a stagflationary effect, increasing the price of
imported consumer goods, intermediate inputs, technological components, and
energy, while reducing output by disrupting global supply chains. Worse, the Sino-American conflict is already
fueling a broader process of deglobalization, because
countries and firms can no longer count on the long-term stability of these
integrated value chains. As trade in goods, services,
capital, labor, information, data, and technology becomes increasingly
balkanized, global production costs will rise across all industries.
See Chart:
Moreover, the trade and currency war and the competition over technology
will amplify one another.
It is easy to imagine how today’s situation could
lead to a full-scale implosion of the open global trading system. The question, then, is whether monetary and
fiscal policymakers are prepared for a sustained – or
even permanent – negative supply shock.
Following the stagflationary
shocks of the 1970s, monetary policymakers responded by tightening monetary
policy. Today, however,
major central banks such as the US Federal Reserve are already pursuing
monetary-policy easing, because inflation and inflation expectations remain
low.
In fact, with firms in the US, Europe, China, and
other parts of Asia having reined in capital expenditures, the global tech,
manufacturing, and industrial sector is already in a recession.
Such shocks cannot be
reversed through monetary or fiscal policymaking.
Finally, there is an important difference between
the 2008 global financial crisis and the negative supply shocks that could hit
the global economy today. Because the former was mostly a
large negative aggregate demand shock that depressed growth and inflation, it
was appropriately met with monetary and fiscal stimulus. But this time, the
world would be confronting sustained negative supply shocks that would require
a very different kind of policy response over the medium term. Trying to undo the damage through
never-ending monetary and fiscal stimulus will not be a sensible option.
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
As
the welfare-warfare-fiat money
system collapses, we will see increased violence...and an increase in
police state power. The only way to avoid this fate is for good people to unite and replace the extremist ideologies of
the mainstream...
====
Sus acciones y su bla-bla delatan a Trump..
estamos frente a la típica “circulación de las elites” ..y frente a la ALTERNANCIA de
los LEONES POR LAS ZORRAS.. de las que hablo Pareto. Unos se imponen por la fuerza bruta de su
militarismo y los otros por su ASTUCIA y creatividad. Los 1ros son conservadores y
defienden el status quo, con sus billonarios
y su GREED
y los zorros defienden el CAMBIO radical hacia el bien común, que es lo que necesita la Nation. Es el NEED vs el GREED
lo que está en debate y la alternancia lo que viene. Así fue en la
historia y así será hoy. El Publi-NEED es lo
que defiende Elizabeth Warren y su victoria ya esta anunciada, a
menos que el fraude del trumpismo cree REVOLUCION
popular en un contexto de autonomías Estado-región, la ultima estocada de
grandes banqueros y big corp, es lo que a E-Warren le preocupa.La astucia y
creatividad se impondrán y los banqueros y Billonarios serán expropiados.
…
La distorsión de los Trumpist es lo que viene abajo:
...Trump is the greatest stock promoter of our
generation and Warren is openly hostile to the stock market. When
polls show them sort of close, what do you think the market will do?
…..
Si detona el crash es por culpa de Trump.. por su
incompetencia (ni un mínimo de diplomacia
con China), por su corrupción (avala
billonarios que se comen dineros de la Nacion (QEs-Bailout) generando
así una desigualdad explosiva) y p-su anarquía estatal
(violencia armada como efecto del contexto que reflejan las guerras que creamos fuera para vender
armas letales y crear terr-genocida)
….
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"past instances of very low rates have tended to coincide with high risk
events such as wars, financial crises, and breaks in the monetary regime."
While the report engages in the
type of tortured, goalseeked analysis that we have grown to "love"
from central banks for the past decade, the same central banks who did not
anticipate that their disastrous bubble-blowing policies would result in the
financial crisis of 2008 (which last we checked, has not been blamed on Putin
just yet), and presents the following chart to confirm
that, indeed, if only the Fed had cut rates to -0.75%, the recovery would have
magically been far stronger...
See Chart:
Actual,
median alternative projections for FED funds rates
As we concluded then "In short, NIRP would have made the recession shorter
and less acute according to the San Francisco Fed, and since it is impossible
to argue the counterfactual, we
now have "research" that sets the framework for what happens next."
As for the San Fran Fed, that
absurd joke of a "research institution" which couldn't see the housing bubble in 2006/2007
despite being smack in the middle of it when it was headed by one Janet Yellen, finally figuring out what we first said ten
years ago - when we were broadly mocked as conspiracy
theorists - all we can say is "who gives a shit."
….
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"This
is a tremendous moment in human history. For
the first time, Western imperialism is being not only defeated, but fully
unveiled and humiliated. Many are now laughing at it,
openly..."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Is a rein coming? Thousands of missiles from diff direction por
allies of IRAN
Hezbollah's Nasrallah has vowed to shoot down any Israeli aircraft violating
Lebanese airspace...
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Attacking IRAN will have immediate automatic response, said
RU before
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"This is a pilot project. We see
it as the first stage of
launching the Russian OS on Huawei devices..."
====
The threshold to an armed conflict
around the Persian Gulf just got even smaller.
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
ARG: Se termina el
neoliberalismo? Marcelo Colussi
US: Presentes para construir Álvaro
Guzmán
BRA: Quién salvará el Amazonas
(y cómo)? Stephen Walt
====
ALAI ORG
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Brasil rechazará los 20 millones de dólares propuestos por el G7 para combatir los incendios en la Amazonía
- EE.UU. acusa a China de "tácticas de 'bullying'" y "esfuerzos para violar el orden basado en reglas" en el Indo-Pacífico
- Presidente del Líbano: "Los ataques aéreos de Israel parecen una declaración de guerra"
- Aparecen dos nuevos cárteles en México y se promocionan con videos en redes sociales
- Irán reducirá sus compromisos del acuerdo nuclear y no negociará con EE.UU.
- Decretan el estado de emergencia en Pto Rico ante el paso del ciclón Dorian
- Apple lanza actualización para evitar vulnerabilidad en su sistema operativo
- Multan con 572 mill-USD a Johnson & Johnson por causar opiáceos en Oklah
- Plan Nestlé de bombear 4 mill de lit de agua de reserv nat causa op en Florid
- Méxi-US evaluarán los resultados de su acuerdo migratorio
- Irán despliega un destructor para garantizar la seguridad de sus naves
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-US “I LOVE WAE” Trump Creates Insecurity By Finian Cunningham
-
Hong Kong and the Audacity of the United
States By Peter Koenig
-
The rise and fall of Nicaragua’s ‘human
rights’ organizations By John Perry
-
The Rise of Global Authoritarianism By Mario Candeias
-
Can the American Economy Be Resurrected? By Paul Craig Roberts
-
Punishing the World With Sanctions By Philip Giraldi
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COUNTER
PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics &
Geopolitics
David
Macaray The
Death of Political Satire
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GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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PRESS
TV
Resume of Global News described
by Iranian observers..
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