jueves, 1 de agosto de 2019

ND AUG 1 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  AUG 1  19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


Carnage born: THE TITANIC IS SINKING

Is President Trump calling Fed Chair Powell's bluff over an "extended easing cycle." Trump quickly realized after yesterday's Powell performance that he just needs to destabilize China for The Fed to keep cutting (or cut rate quicker).
Trump's action sent September rate-cut expectations to 95% (from 61%)...

See Chart:
Sept ember Rate Cut Odds

And the market's expectation has shifted dramatically dovish from 1.5 rate-cuts in 2019 to 2 rate-cuts..
See Chart:

Dismal ISM and Construction Spending data sparked a rally in bonds and stocks this morning (because bad news is good news as it forces Powell's hand to tilt more dovish), but then Trump surprised with new broad tariffs on China imports and that sent stocks, yuan, oil prices, and bond yields crashing.

US equities are all down hard... Trannies are the weakest with the rest of the majors down around 2% post-Powell and Trump...
See Chart:

Dow futures swung 600 points from high to low...
See Chart:

As expected, cyclical stocks were hammered on the trade headlines...
See Chart:

VIX surged intraday to 19.00 - its highest since the start of June...
See Chart: 

Credit markets shit the bed today...

Bond bears were battered (short-end outperformed the long-end - 2Y down 17bps, 30Y down 10bps).
SEE Chart:

The yield curve (3m10Y) collapsed...
See Chart:

The dollar dumped on dismal data (more easing) and then again on Trump tariffs...
See Chart:
DXY Dollar Index

WTI plunged and gold surged as Trump's tariff headlines hit...
See Chart:

Oil prices utterly collapsed - with WTI crashing 8% - the biggest drop since Feb 2015...
See Chart:

Finally, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott noted earlier...
"I wonder how many times the Fed knew they were embarking on a massive easing cycle when they made their first cut. My guess is not many."
Not many indeed.
And as a reminder, Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg reminds us that:
"Only one other time has the market declined the day of the first rate cut -- in October 1987. Thanks for the walk-back, Jay!"
See Chart:
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"... on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country "

Just as investors thought it was safe to buy-the f**king-dip after Powell's plunge, President Trump steals the jam out of their donut by announcing new China tariffs...

And just like that - gains were gone...
See Chart:

And 10Y Treasury yields crash to 1.89% - the lowest since 2016..
See Chart:

And the jaws of death widen...
See Chart:

As 10Y yields have now dropped below Trump Election lows..
See Chart:

Two Y Yield are free Falling
See Chart:

And yuan plunged
Erasing all the trade-truce gains...
See Chart:
On the bright side - we are sure this will give Powell more room to cut more.
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While there are many in the media touting “the strongest economy ever” since Trump took office, a quick look at a chart should quickly put that claim to rest...

See Chart:
Average Economic  growth by Cycle

Economic growth is more than just a reported number. The economy has been “in motion” following the last recession due to massive liquidity injections, zero interest rates, and a contraction in the labor force. Much like a “snowball rolling downhill,” the continuation of economic momentum should have been of little surprise.

As an example, we can look at full-time employment (as a percentage of 16-54  which removes the “retiring baby boomer” argument) by President. The rise in full-time employment has been on a steady trend higher following the financial crisis as the economic and financial systems repaired themselves.
See Chart:
See more interesting charts at
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With apologies to Sheryl Crow and none to the Fed, what a mess! The Fed will be dragged into a full-blown rate-cutting cycle - once it’s too late to prevent a US recession in 2020.
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"We suspect it would likely require steady growth numbers, a sizeable move up in inflation to a level close to target, and a significant reduction in trade tensions."
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio



"Whoever controls the narrative controls the world. Whoever disrupts that narrative control is doing the real work..."
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Even the ones which are proven correct?
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"He’s claimed some of Mr. Wallace’s specific phrases as his own - most notably the call for 'law and order..."
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“The media are not here to provide information... so that you can make intelligent decisions. No, that’s not what the media are. The media are corporate tools..”
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"There is one person that would crush Trump - and she hasn’t announced yet. And her last name rhymes with Obama. In fact, it is Obama - Michelle Obama..."
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Michelle no tiene vela en este entierro.. haria lo mismo que hizo Hillary :  forrarse de dinero, con corrupción al por mayor + alianza con el terror Saudi. Obama fue un arquitecto del neoliberalismo actual, ese pasado fue y es una condena para el US y lo sería peor hoy. Regresar a ese pasado es solo ficción

A mi ver, las parejas electorales ya están formadas
1-E-Warren  y Tulsi Gabbard, una aporta experiencia  y razón y Tulsi la espada militar capaz de partir en dos a los REPs.  
2- La pareja J-Biden y K-Harris, son harina del mismo costal y si no se soplan el polvo entre ellos, son pareja de gran fuerza Elect.  Si Michelle-OB entra al ruedo, entraría también  

AOC y con ella nacería la 3ra pareja -quien compensaría con su juventud lo que necesita Sanders para ser real fórmula electoral. 

Michelle-OB  no tiene pareja, a menos que crea que Democracia y Monarquia son los mismo  pues son los millonarios los que si eligen al Presid Entonces se  justificaría su idea de hacer pareja electoral con su príncipe OB ya sepultado y podrido pero posible de  ser resucitado gracias al poder divino como se creía en el siglo XIV y XV. Solo entonces Michelle y OB serian 4ta Opc
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“All told, we are barreling toward a future where every ritual of public life carries implicit consent to be surveilled,”
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IRONI TIME:

Have we finally hit peak Trump Derangement Syndrome?
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Trump se va a cagar de risa.. This form of killing him is 100% Saudi terrorism
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


SIGNS OF PSYCHOPATHIC PARANOIA IN OUR GVT

"...this could be the start of those countries’ attack on the dollar..
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Fears growing that the mainland's Orwellian surveillance system and facial recognition software is being used in crackdown. 
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US pierde tiempo dando juguetes electrónicos de los rebeldes de Hong Kong. Si China decide invadir Hong Kong eso acabaría con la rebeldía en un dia.
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Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has formalized Japan's decision to remove South Korea from its "white list" of 27 countries with preferential trade status, a move that further fuels bilateral tensions.
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US considering a quarantine or blockade of Venezuela...
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VEN need also the support of RU missiles in case US attempt to bombed
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Trump= ZERO diplomacy = inefficient President

Trump ruled out giving Beijing advance notice of his intent to slap a new 10% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese goods in an Oval Office meeting before he announced the duties.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

Cultur: Isabelle Garo   Comunismo y estrategia último Libro
Politica:  Existe el Estado profundo?   Miguel Ángel Ramos
Pto Rico : Sueños de una madrugada de verano  Wilkins Román
ARG:  La justicia y los elefantes  José Natanson
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ALAI ORG

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RT EN ESPAÑOL 

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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics


J.P. Linstroth  Celebrating Terrorism?
Wim Laven  We Fall, Divided
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies


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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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