ND
AUG 12 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
With 'everyone' on vacation, geopolitical chaos drove risk-off today
Sending gold above stocks for the year...
See Chart:
And since Powell's "mid-cycle
adjustment", gold and bonds are the big winner...
And S&P the losers
See Chart:
Gold vs. S&P
And on the
day, investors dumped the broad market while piling into Bonds, Bullion, and
BYND as safe-havens...
See Chart:
Chinese stocks (after some brief
selling in the early afternoon session, STOCKS SOARED as HK tensions escalated)...
See Chart:
Yuan slid modestly weaker (after 8th
straight day of weaker fixes)
See Chart:
Hong Kong Dollar drifted back
towards the low-end of the USDollar peg band...
See Chart:
And US equities were all lower on
the day (led by Trannies)...
See Chart:
CNBC Anchor: "Equity
markets have picked up a bit, now down just 430 points"
Bagholder On CNBC: "...we don't want to sell, we are long term investors."
Seems like the Fib 61.8% retrace was
the hard limit for the short-squeeze dead-cat-bounce..
See Chart:
All the major US equities broke back
below key technical levels...
See Charts:
VIX topped 21 intraday, and judging
by 2s10s, has a long way to go...
See Chart:
Stocks and bonds remain decoupled
See Chart:
Nasdaq vs 10 Y Yield
Treasury yields reverted back to
collapsing today (led by the long-end)...
See Chart:
10Y Yields dropped to lowest since
Sept 2016...
See Chart:
And 30Y is within a tick of record
lows (2.09% on 7/8/16)...
See Chart:
The yield (2s10s) plunged to fresh
cycle lows...
See Chart:
And in case you wondered how bad it
could get, 5-year-forward 10Y yields plunged to a new record low...
See Chart:
As stock losses accelerated, gold
(and silver) spiked higher...
See Chart:
With bund yields hitting new lows,
gold will be pressured higher as having more yield than over $15 trillion of
global bonds...
See Chart:
Argentina was a bloodbath after
Macri's dismal showing in the primaries...
The peso crashed 25%
And bond prices collapsed...
See Chart:
Argentina “Century” Bond Price
And Chicago Corn crashed most since
2013 as official corn-planting estimates exceeded analyst expectations…
See Chart:
Corn Futures
Finally, as Gluskin-Sheff's David
Rosenberg noted: the reality is that the S&P 500 isn’t even 1% above where
it was on January 26th, 2018. More than a year-and-a-half of nothing … except
the dividend, that is."
See Chart:
S&P 500
And for now, the market-implied odds
of a trade deal saving the world are around 12%...
See Chart:
Market-Implied Probability of a China Trade Deal : almost Zero
And.. SO… [ The Titanic is sinking ]
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-12/stocks-slammed-traders-seek-safe-havens-geopolitical-chaos
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America
runaway spending shows no sign of slowing, even as spending on US federal
interest hits all time high.
See Chart:
Monthly Receipts, Outlays &
Budget deficit surplus of he US Gvt
See more interesting Charts at
….
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...financial conditions will
have to tighten significantly and the fastest way for that to
happen is equities and credit crash into September.
See Chart:
Primary Dealer: Treasury Security Net
REP Financing, $Mlls
See More charts at:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-12/why-fed-has-cut-100bps-will-only-do-so-after-market-crash
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El Titanic
se empieza hundir y dicen que aún no estamos en recesión.
by Tyler Durden
Mon, 08/12/2019
Time for
a "Markets
In Turmoil" special?
….
“Markets in
turmoil” es lo que viene, con
bunkruptcys al por mayor, with “good-Friday” or assaulting stores, with
hundreds of death inside & stores- burning. Is it
possible to avoid this? Es posible evitar esto? Si, con la maquinita de imprimir USD se alivia
temporalmente el lio.. pero se agrava la
deuda y la caída es más dolorosa .. pues each step up y
la escalera va perdiendo los peldaños pisados .. y la caída va a ser peor que el suicidio “convenido” de EPSTEIN. Este también es un suicidio Econ por
conveniencia: la conveniencia de los empresarios que lucran fabricando armas y
guerras fuera.. poniendo el peligro la sobrevivencia de la humanidad con el
WW3. .. A esto llamamos “neo-liberalismo”.. es el modelo Econ que finalmente llega
a su final… y de la manera más vergonzosa… Es el Titanic el que se está
hundiendo y no te van a dar bote para que puedas escapar.. la guerra te comerá
y nadie te dará “cristiana” sepultura. Serás víctima de los fuegos fatuos de
los Nukes que lloverán sobre America. Si realmente queremos salvarnos, no queda
otra que quitarles el control de las armas, hacer pacto con China-RU y sus
aliados y expropiar a los grandes magnates que lucraron
con las guerras fuera. Esto se llama REVOLUCION
y si creo que el momento ha llegado. Quizá tengamos 1ro que desarmar el circo
electoral que solo agravará los odios internos.. Pero si estamos seguros de
evitar el fraude de Reps & Dems: si los obligamos a
que introduzcan la 3ra opción en la distribución del nuevo poder, pues intentemos las elecciones, luego avanzaremos
al control del Estado con referéndums y con el pueblo armado. No permitas que
te las quiten hoy, y si vienen por ellas, tienes derecho a la auto-defensa. Es
tu vida y la de tu Nación la que está en peligro. Cuando hay una causa justa es
mejor morir de pie que de rodillas. La reconstrucción de la patria te necesita,
pero sin armas eres zero a la Izquierda.
----
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“Hard
assets and hard work are the only stores of value..."
“The history of government loans is really a history of government
defaults.”
–MAX WINKLER, author of “Foreign Bonds: An Autopsy”
–MAX WINKLER, author of “Foreign Bonds: An Autopsy”
SUMMARY
- The prevalence of negative yielding bonds, of sub-prime zero-down mortgages, of sub-prime auto loans, a deeply inverted yield curve, a collateralized loan obligations, US corporate junk bonds, and soaring interest costs on US federal debt are flashing economic warning signals. [[ Signals of What? Of recession, of course, either coming or in motion now ]]
- Underscoring just how out-of-control the DEBT PROLIFERATION SITUATION has become, in 2007 total global indebtedness was $112 trillion; today, that number stands at $250 trillion.
- The combined debt of the world’s four largest economies increased more than ten times as much as their economies grew last year.
- Instead of getting spending and debt growth under control while the economy is healthy, US federal government outlays surged 30% in the most recent fiscal year at the same time that revenues fell by 3%.
- As a result, the Treasury is issuing over $1 trillion of new debt annually to fund the deficit.
- And the corporate bond market doesn’t paint a prettier picture.
- BBB-rated debt has roughly doubled as a percentage of the size of the economy since 2007.
- Similarly, the outstanding amount of high-risk corporate bonds and loans has also blown past the peak seen before the 2008 meltdown.
- During this stealth MMT era, many investors have been lulled into thinking that staying concentrated in an S&P index fund is surest way to generate high returns.
- But as the debt bubble unwinds and the market cycle flips, gold and other hard assets might be the best protective options for investors.
….
DEBT-END
Another totally — as in, I get it,
so please allow me to take a crack at this exercise.
- There are now $15 trillion of negative yielding bonds around the world, up by a cool $9 trillion over the last year.
- Multiple junk bond issuers in Europe are getting paid to borrow money.
- 43% of bonds outside of the US are negative yielding (borrower paid to borrow) and in Germany government bond yields are subzero out to 30 years.
- There are $14 trillion in global quantitative easing (QE) funded assets sitting on central bank balance sheets (i.e., bonds and stocks bought by these entities, entirely with pseudo-money).
- After nearly destroying the world 10 years ago, sub-prime zero-down mortgages are performing an encore.
- Ditto the first part of the above: The equally evil twin of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), are all the rage.
- Sub-prime auto loans have gone postal.
- 75% of commercial real estate mortgage are interest only, the highest since 2006 (and you know what happened in 2008!)
- The size of the US corporate bond market rated just above junk has never been higher.
- The interest cost on US federal debt is almost certain to soon eclipse military spending, despite a surge in the latter and still miniscule interest rates.
- Japan and Europe are on the edge of recessions, if not over it, notwithstanding all-in monetary policies that give their central banks almost no room to ease.
- The world is in the midst of a trade war the likes of which hasn’t been seen since the 1930s and one that almost no one saw coming.
- Modern Monetary Theory (aka, government spending sans any restraint) is being widely discussed as a serious remedy to “secular stagnation” (i.e., a persistent inability to achieve former economic growth rates).
- Overall US corporate earnings have essentially flat-lined (according to the government’s Bureau of Economic Analysis) since 2011 but the S&P 500 has roughly tripled since then.
….
Of course, the collapse by global interest rates has made it
much easier to service that debt or, in the case of the above-mentioned surreal
situation, where greater debts produce greater cash flow to the borrower.
While this phenomenon has mostly been driven by the “rich”
countries, emerging nations have also participated in the debt bacchanal.
See Chart:
To inject one positive into what is a lengthy list of
negatives, the US consumer doesn’t appear to be highly vulnerable, unlike 12
years ago. Household leverage is back to 1980s levels relative to assets though
a major factor is the lofty level of stocks and real estate. Moreover, credit card and student loan debt is high but
consumer IOUs don’t look like they will be the flash point this time.
See Chart
US Household leverage is back to
1980 levels
Total US corporate debt compared to
the size of our economy isn’t as shocking, but it is nonetheless back up to
levels that preceded bear markets and recessions.
See Chart:
% US DEBT OUTSTANDING COMPARED to US
GDP
The Wall Street Journal ran this novel
chart looking at debt relative to revenues. Almost every visual on corporate
indebtedness looks at it versus profits, cash flow, or, as above, relative to
the size of the economy. As you can see, this looks
much more like the BBB-rated bond situation in terms of being way beyond the
2007 level or even 2008 when revenues plunged precipitously.
See Chart:
Perception Counts
Debt to Sales vs. Debt to Market value
A record amount of Debt is coming
due
See Chart:
Similarly, the outstanding amount of high-risk corporate bonds and loans has also blown past the peak seen
before the 2008 meltdown. Many of these are packaged into the
aforementioned Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs). These are now as popular
with institutional investors as the destined-to-be-radioactive CDOs were
pre-crash. Even former Fed chair Janet Yellen said not
long ago: “I am worried about the systemic risks associated with these loans”…
See Chart:
CLOs
vs. CDOs
Cumulative Change in GDP vs. Less Cumulative
Change in Fed Debt
See Chart;
The truly disturbing
aspect is that central banks like the Fed and the ECB are now conceding their
tool kit is basically exhausted.
While the
media frenzy over Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has subsided since last spring,
the shift toward it remains nearly inexorable. In fact, as brainy Ben Hunt has
noted in his provocative Epsilon Theory newsletter, “we’re all
MMT’ers now”, a phrase I coined back
in our April double edition on MMT.
If this surprises you, think about what’s been happening in America in recent
years. A cornerstone of MMT is that as the government spends far more than it
takes in, the Fed should buy the deficit-funding bonds. This is known as debt monetization and was once thought to be reserved for
hyper-inflationary banana republics.
Our July 26th Guest
EVA ran a summary of a 15-page essay by hedge fund titan Ray
Dalio. Even though I disagreed with his “beautiful deleveraging” thesis that he
espoused a few years back (he’s gone quiet on that for obvious reasons),
his “Paradigm
Shifts” is absolutely a must-read for all serious investors, in my
view. It’s on exactly the topic of what happens when there is simply too much
debt for an economy—or a lot of economies—to handle. Here’s a sample:
“As these forms of easing (i.e. interest rate cuts and QE) cease
to work well and the problem of their being too much debt and non-debt
liabilities (e.g., pension and healthcare liabilities) remains, the other forms
of easing (most obviously, currency depreciations and fiscal deficits that are monetized)
will become increasingly likely.” There you have it. And with most major countries trying
to force their currency down, or keep it there, it’s very hard to stimulate
playing that game. That pretty much leaves the nuclear stimulus option of
MMT.
As one EVA reader emailed me last week, quoting popular
financial author, Jim Rickards, one of the few to anticipate the last
crisis: “Hard assets and hard work are the only stores of value”. Frankly,
during this stealth MMT era most investors have been lulled into thinking all
you have to do to make high returns is buy an S&P index fund. That’s been
the case for most of the last ten years but, as Mr. Dalio emphatically conveys
in “Paradigm Shifts”, what works in one decade almost
never works in the next. In fact, whatever asset class or investment
vehicle has been the biggest winner of the past 10 years tends to get smoked in
the coming decade. You may have noticed this one ends in about five months.
….
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"...governments are all running
to devalue their country’s currency to try to stimulate economic
growth, they’re dealing with negative
interest rates, and that’s been driving gold..."
But its not just
analysts that are piling in. Large speculators' net positioning in gold is near record highs and silver
positioning is also soaring.
See Chart:
See more charts at:
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
President
Trump will love this.
After a handful of strong debate performances, coupled with
the doddering, gaffe-prone antics of de facto front-runner Joe Biden, Massachusetts
Senator Elizabeth Warren is for the first time leading
the massive pool of Democratic 2020 primary contenders in the online betting
market Prediction.
See Chart:
Who will win the 2020 Democratic
Presidential Nomination
Source: PredictIt
Warren has been the biggest gainer
following the first two Democratic debates, while other frontrunners
like Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have seen their numbers drop.
Polling aggregations from Real Clear
Politics show a similar trend.
See Chart:
Warren's biggest rival for the mantle of progressive leader,
Bernie Sanders, has seen his popularity slide. Of
course, with six months to go until the Iowa Caucus, the official start of
primary season, there's plenty of time to change.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08-12/elizabeth-warren-takes-lead-online-betting-markets
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Instead of
going wherever the evidence leads them, there already seems to be a tremendous effort to marginalize any
explanations for his death other than “suicide”.
====
"All these unresolved
mysteries give Americans a reason to want to arm themselves against a recklessly rogue
and sinister government..."
====
There’s a good reason the
presidential hopeful met with Assad, but the media doesn’t want to talk about it...
….
The potential Pres or VP is been followed at
minimum detail. Siria is of course one lesson that most Polit-of the world
takes seriously.. Tulsi too. Good luck!
====
Si quieren
evitar el probl de migrac de profesionales: eleven los salarios
There’s perhaps no
indicator more damning of a state’s failure to govern than the
flight of its residents to other states...People of every stripe are leaving Illinois. Old and young,
rich and poor.
See Chart:
Per capita income lost due to net
out-migration
See more charts at:
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Follows
separate threat that "smoke will rise from Tel Aviv" as Israel
mulls support to proposed joint maritime coalition in Persian Gulf.
….
ISR is a source of instability in
all the region.. Does we need them in the map? ----
====
There was a
run on iodine pills in the northern Russian region as radiation levels spiked.
====
It's time
to cry for them again...
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
US: Patriotismo by default Jorge Majfud
====
ALAI ORG
====
RT EN
ESPAÑOL
- Diez semanas de protestas masivas: ¿qué está pasando en Hong Kong y por qué este territorio puede perder su posición económica?
- "Hemos tenido un día muy malo", dice Macri tras el impacto de su derrota en los mercados (VIDEO)
- Zarif: "EE.UU. ha convertido la región del golfo Pérsico en un polvorín a punto de explotar"
- Constituyente de Venezuela allana la inmunidad de cuatro diputados opositores por traición a la patria
- El banco central de China debilita el yuan a un nuevo mínimo desde 2008
- Un convoy militar de China toma una ciudad fronteriza con Hong Kong
- El FBI allana la isla caribeña de Jeffrey Epstein poco después de su aparente suicidio en la cárcel
- El agujero negro en el centro de nuestra galaxia brilla mucho más de lo normal y no se sabe por qué
- Macrismo en crisis, ¿el fracaso que nadie anticipó? Cecilia González
- Turquía estudia sustituir a los cazas F-35 estadounidenses por los rusos Su-35
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INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
-U.S. has the best Congress and White House
that money can buy By
Philip Giraldi
- Ven and Iran in the Crosshairs of Murderers
Inc – Who is Next? By Peter Koenig
- Neoliberalism Has Met Its Match in China By Ellen Brown
- India and Pakistan Itching for Showdown on
Kashmir By Dr Mahboob A
Khawaja
- Epstein Docts Revealing Pedophile & Sex Trafficking
Operation By Eoin Higgins
----
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
John Feffer Trump:
Out of the Graveyard and Into the Pyre?
Eric Draitser Dear
Progressives for Warren: Your Class Is Showing
----
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Could
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Contribute to Resolving the Kashmir
Crisis? By
Andrew Korybko,
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
- Palestine warns US against backing Israeli annexation bid
- Hong Kong's leader asks protesters to ‘calm down’
- US budget deficit widens; spending up on health, military
- Trump weakens endangered species law
- French want to investigate Epstein’s activities
- Argentina pres. vows to claw back lost voters
- US team begins establishing op center in Turkey
- Prisoners in Saudi Arabia get temporary reprieve for Hajj
- ‘US foreign policy is One Big Hate Crime’
- PROGRAMS
- The Last Earth: A Palestinian story by Ramzy Baroud (20 Feb. 2018 )
- Battle for Idlib
- Epstein's mysterious death
- Hong Kong protests
- Kashmiri's fate intertwined with Palestinians
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