domingo, 25 de agosto de 2019

ND AUG 25 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  AUG 25   19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics


Interesting that this week - as central planners gather in Jackson Hole - saw The Fed's Treasury bond holdings rise for the first time since QE ended way back in late 2014...

Summary
  • Federal Reserve holdings of Treasury's has risen for the first time since QE ended in 2014.
  • Quantitative Tightening is over, but is outright QE back???
  • Ongoing "direct monetization" continues, with un-matched declines in Excess Reserves versus Fed held Treasury's and MBS.

Interesting that this week, for the first time since QE ended way back in late 2014, Federal Reserve holdings of Treasury bonds rose (yellow columns, below).  The $8 billion increase is the first seen since QE ended almost 5 years ago and comes after QT (quantitative tightening) had been decelerating since mid 2019.  However, the outright increase in Treasury holdings is still a bit of shocker.  Can't say if this was a one off... but this deserves a bit more attention.
See Chart:


So what exactly was the Fed buying?  Seven to ten year Treasury's!  The chart below shows the Fed's mid duration holdings (red line) and the weekly change in those holdings (blue columns).  The purchasing this week was only bested by a single week in 2011...when the Fed was feverishly running its QE program?!?
See Chart:


After a long period of selling/rolling off mid duration Treasury's (red line below), late 2018 and early 2019 saw an end to the selling...and now a sudden burst of Federal Reserve purchasing coinciding with a sharp decline in the 10 year yield (shaded blue area).
See Chart:


And the Feds long duration holdings versus the 30 year Treasury yield.  The current move down in the long yield is exactly what was seen, in anticipation prior to QE1, QE2, and QE3.  Hmmm.
See Chart:


 For those curious what the correlation of Federal Reserve Treasury buying to equity valuations has been...chart below is Fed Treasury holdings versus the Wilshire 5000 (representing all publicly traded US equities).  When the Fed buys, stocks go up...when the Fed holds or sells, stocks struggle (except for 2017, but that's another story). 
See Chart:
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EASY TO UNDERTAND US ECON ISSUES
LA ECON USA ES FACIL DE ENTENDERSE
Con paciencia y saliva un elefante de comió una hormiga. Aqui es al revés.
Si te quieres comer el  elefante Econ-US, don’t worry about the 1st chart.
Interesting truth at the end…&  beautiful lessons at all
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"...now, because the outcomes are already bad, they’re wanting to drive interest rates even lower to deal with the bad outcomes that these low interest rates have already caused..."
 OPEN:
AT:  https://nd-hugoadan.blogspot.com/
 
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More QEs & bailouts to the mafias of Wall Street?  More food to rats won’t solve Ntg We all know that Trump’ stupid diplomacy with China will have world effects. We have it now… 

A GLOBAL RECESSION, IS HIGH AND RISING, said Morgan Stanley.

This past week, media reports have indicated that China, Germany and the US could be considering new fiscal stimulus measures. Don't hold your breath.
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The only solution is to design a post-neoliberal plan with no WS specul in it
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While some fiscal stimulus is under way this year, we expect limited further expansion next year (the cyclically adjusted G4 fiscal deficit will rise to 1.5% of GDP in 2019 on our forecasts, from 1.2% in 2018, and will rise marginally to 1.6% in 2020).
See Chart:
Cyclically Adjusted Primary Gov’t Budget Banalance (% of GDP)


A SLOWDOWN IS SET IN MOTION

Lingering trade-related uncertainty has put the wheels of a global slowdown in motion. We expect global growth to slow further, to 2.8%Y in 4Q19, and remain below 3%Y for the first half of 2020, as the slowdown is broadening out to the non-manufacturing sector, labour markets and consumption. Continued trade tensions, combined with reactive monetary and fiscal policy, mean that the risk of non-linear tightening in financial conditions, triggering A GLOBAL RECESSION, IS HIGH AND RISING.
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio


“I have second thoughts about everything.”
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What about bringing home the guns you sent to Taiwan and what about retracting from sanctions & blockage to Iran & Ven…+ given nukes to RU neighbors .. IF the US don’t dismantle these policies ..the conflict with China-RU & allies will continue & the war  at Econ-Geo-Pol level .. aggravated. IF peace is an honest Trump’ intention, do it now and lead the agenda fo dismantle nukes world-wide. Otherwise the Econ-crash will hit the Nation before elections: bankruptcies will multiply, assault to stores too  & the violent chaos you create will have victims.. you won’t be re-elected .. the Nation in streets  will force you to resign or be deposed. Is this part of  your 2nd thought?  It must be, but I  believe you’re unable to think .. you will respond with more violence and that will be your end: You may be the 1st Potus in jail.
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Serious signs of internal division:
...the Pentagon keeps an ace up its sleeve in case any state politicians get uppity. The Pentagon will simply threaten to remove millions of dollars worth of spending from any state which refuses to immediately comply.
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo


The Sunday session already had a flash crashy feel to it, when the first casualty as said "feel" became reality was the Turkish Lira, which suddenly snapped, plunging as much as 15%
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Time to get out from Syria and/or help to take out ISR too (the bad example)
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Si todo lo que hace en VEN lo hiciera aquí en el US.. el bufón Guaido ya estaría muerto.. Pero es el US quien fabrica fuera del país estos sirvientes cretinos

As with most things about US foreign policy today, the irony of this situation is just too much to bear...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3


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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

RT EN ESPAÑOL

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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