ND
AUG 30 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
The roadmap
that has been in place for the US economy for the last year is almost certainly
going to continue. That means a recessionary or stagflationary state is coming.
Back after some time on the beach and while the data
deterioration/stagflation theme was neither solidified nor nullified while I
was gone, there were two major events that transpired:
- Powell’s Jackson Hole folly
- Further escalation in China/US trade wars
Regarding #1, Powell gave the nod to significant
geopolitical risks abroad but his error came in continuing
his intellectually dishonest comments about the “strength” of the US economy. His
entire thesis hinges on
1- A strong labor
market – Yes, the Unemployment Rate remains
at historic lows (lagging indicator) but job growth has undeniably already
slowed. Note the NFP chart does not include the enormous 500k of downward
revisions that are coming soon…
See Charts:
2-issing Wages.- certainly not a disaster but the uptrend has been broken…
See Chart:
Powell’s folly forced a frustrated Trump to further increase
tariffs (with some China retaliation). In effect, POTUS
is working to slow the economy to force the Fed to cut but at the same time
tweeting positive headlines to keep equity markets up.
Focus on this analysis from Axios that was not picked up by
financial media:
“U.S. intelligence officials are worried about Hong Kong further
deteriorating, and about the risk of the Chinese military overreaching in Hong
Kong — and perhaps even in Taiwan.
Lots of members of Congress care about the U.S. protecting Taiwan from
Chinese aggression, and Trump has enraged Beijing by
increasing military sales to the Taiwanese from the Obama era.
And national security adviser John Bolton is a strong advocate for
Taiwan.
Some left those meetings
with the impression that the U.S. was serious about confronting China
militarily.”
That all means the likelihood of a trade deal with China in
the next, let’s say, 6 months is highly improbable.
Therefore, the roadmap that has been in place for the US
economy for the last year is almost certainly going to continue. That means a
recessionary or stagflationary state.
The
anatomy of a US slowdown…
See Graph:
See more charts at:
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RECESSION ESCALATED QUICKLY
Well that was quite a month...
High(Low)lights...
- China's Renminbi suffered its biggest monthly loss since 1994
- EM FX tumbled to a record low, worst month in a year
- US Treasury yields plunged in August by most since Sept 2011 (to record low yields at the long-end)
- US Yield Curve flattened most in August since Jan 2016 (to its flattest since 2007)
- Bund yields tumbled 26bps to record lows - the biggest monthly drop since June 2016 (Brexit vote)
- Treasury 'VIX' spiked most in August since May 2009
- Iron Ore Futures (Singapore) suffered their worst month ever...
- Gold has the best August dollar gains since Feb 2016
- Silver had best August percentage gain since June 2016 (Brexit vote)
STOCKS
US and Chinese stocks are
surprisingly aligned YTD (both up around 16/17%) with Europe lagging (+13%)...
See Chart:
Buybacks saved stocks numerous times
this month...
See Chart:
S&P BuyBack Index
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmD2C5.jpg?itok=XSq6jPn9
And while short-squeezes were used
to keep stocks afloat, their surges were weaker and weaker..
See Chart:
BONDS
Treasury yields utterly collapsed in
August (30Y was down over 60bps at its lowest)...
The biggest monthly drop in the long-bond's yields since Sept 2011
See Chart:
30Y ended
the week below 2.00% for the first time ever...
See Chart:
And the
yield curve collapsed (3m10Y) holding its inversion for
See Chart:
And before we leave
bondland, we note that 30% of global IG corporate debt
is now trading at a negative yield!!
See Chart:
The broad trade-weighted dollar is
at an all-time record high...
See Chart:
Emerging Market FX tumbled to record
lows...
See Chart:
COMMODITIES
Gold ended the week unchanged but
well up from Trump's tantrum...
See Chart:
Gold continues to track the surge in
negative-yielding debt volumes almost perfectly...
See Chart:
Gold: MRKET VALUE OF GLOBAL
NEGATIVE- YIELDING DEBT
Finally, bonds and stocks had a very
different month, you decide which you trust more...
See Chart:
Dow vs 30Y Yield
….
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...equities are in a world of total dependency.
Here’s a rough idea
– some numbers behind the “Fed put”.
Over the past month, here’s the
performance of the S&P over 3 different time slices (avg annualized
returns, 10-min windows).
- When the September FOMC is priced for 25bps or less (1 cut or less): the S&P avgs a -0.62% annlzd return.
- When the September FOMC is priced for more than 31bps cuts (at least 1 cut & chance of more): the S&P avgs a +0.92% annlzd return.
- When there is something in between: the S&P is essentially unchd.
See Figure:
….
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There are more signs the US economy is rapidly
deteriorating. This time it's coming from the energy sector.
See Chart:
….
See More chart at:
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“Lenin said that capitalists would sell the Communists the rope to hang
them. But as matters turned out,capitalists
let China sell them the labor that served to hang American capitalism.” Michael Hudson
====
US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Olor a pedo
hediondo?: Los olores de muertos podridos persiguen a Trump. Por que?
"oops" indeed...
….
Indeed..What? Yo no creo que el cantico: “Pedor unidos jamás
serán vencidos”
Puede ni debe aplicarse a Saint Trump, mi Potus, a quien siempre lo
respetare, como el respeta a la nación venezolana e Iran y Siria. Unidos en la PAZ: Hugo A
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Trump's advisors would be wise to heed the lessons of history...
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Only 10% of full- and part-time U.S. workers belong to a union. This
marks the second year in a row of
the lowest level of union membership in over 15 years...
====
Considering that the central bank can make or break economies, select presidents, and destroy the value of
money, the Federal Reserve is really the most formidable force in the world. Be afraid. Be very afraid...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
“You break it,
you own it.” POTTERY RULE
President
Trump’s trade war looks more like the Iraq fiasco every day. Some of the China-related
problems are real. The US is right to demand changes. But
Trump’s tariff strategy is…
- not solving the China problems; and
- possibly making them even worse.
When you
can’t possibly win, the wisest choice is to disengage and try again later. Beijing appears to be doing exactly that.
Conversely, Trump is breaking
valuable merchandise and still not achieving any of his trade goals.
Zero Profit
Growth
Lost amid the
late-July news torrent was a big revision to the Commerce Department’s
“national accounts” data. That’s where we get Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Previously, the data
showed a big jump in pretax corporate profits beginning in 4Q 2016 (coincident
with Trump’s elections). The revisions now show pretax profits were essentially
flat since then.
See
Charts:
Why is
profit growth down to practically zero? Many reasons, but the trade war is a
big one.
The trade
war is harming the economy and delivering no benefits in
return. None, zero, zip.
Consequences For
All
In sum,
the US will keep fighting a trade war we already lost.
The worst
part is that businesses
are paralyzed, unable to make growth decisions because they have no idea
what government policy will be next week, let alone a year from now.
This has
consequences for everyone, most immediately the workers who will lose their
jobs when
recession strikes. But investors will lose, too.
US public companies are $12 trillion more valuable than they
were when Trump was elected. They are not $12 trillion
more profitable. Share prices are up because investors are paying higher
prices (P/E ratios) for the same “goods,” i.e. earnings.
Will the one who broke it, own it, as the Pottery Barn rule requires?
[[ Yes they brake it , they pay.
If they do not have money , time
to confiscate its means of production
and transferring to coops of org labor ]]
….
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Like the Cold War between the US and USSR, the new rivalry between
China and the West is a contest between fundamentally
incompatible political systems... the idea that freedom and democracy will prevail can no longer be taken
for granted.
====
"It
was an act of complicity with the Macri administration. It was humankind’s most
expensive reelection campaign, and they gave money to a compulsive
spender."
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-opium dreams: Trump
Claims 13 Percent of Companies May Leave China ‘in the Fairly Near Future’ Amid
New US Tariffs
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI
ORG
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- El "extremadamente peligroso" huracán Dorian gana fuerza y alcanza la categoría 4
- Fuerzas Armadas de Colombia: "Los disidentes de las FARC pueden ser bombardeados"
- EE.UU. sanciona al petrolero iraní Adrian Darya 1 liberado por Gibraltar y a su capitán
- Gobierno argentino aumenta el salario mínimo 35 % en tres cuotas
- Apagar la destrucción o incinerarnos: ¿qué hacemos con la Amazonía?
- El Ejército sirio acuerda un alto el fuego en la zona de distensión de Idlib
- Se avecina un cambio de nombre para la FARC
- Descubren un nuevo tipo de cáncer de pulmón más mortal y mal pronosticado que no está relacionado con el consumo de tabaco
- Promo
- 'Conversando con Correa'. Tercera temporada
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El resto para maniana
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