ND APR 1 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce
Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO
HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Economic
situation: worldwide-US
China's
manufacturing PMI surged overnight back above 50, "proving" that all
that stimulus hype has finally fixed the Chinese economy - sparking stock and
commodity buying worldwide as a reflation-fest sent bond yields reeling higher.
There's just
one thing... we've seen
these PMI 'green shoots' a few times before in the last decade...
SEE chart:
But never mind
that - US stocks soared (despite a big disappointment in US retail sales) mean
'everything is awesome' again...
Chinese stocks surged on the 'green shoot' - with ChiNext up
4%!!
See Chart:
US equity
futures show the opening panic bid drifted
through the EU session then the algos stepped into lift
it across the US day session...
See Chart:
Trannies were the day's big winner - up a shocking 2.5%...
See Chart:
Remember The Dow has not fallen in April
since 2005, and April seasonality for US
Equities is a powerful phenomenon: April
has posted the best avg monthly return for the S&P over the past 30 years (+1.64%)
and actually posts the second-highest % hit-rate of “positive return
instances” of any month over the past 90 years
There's just one thing - VIX wasn't playing along at all!!
See Chart:
So much for 20x oversubscribed! LYFT crashed back below its
IP Price...
See Chart:
OPEN vs. IPO
Today was the biggest
10Y yield spike since Jan 4th's big rebound from the Dec lows...
See Chart:
UST 10Y Yield
NOTE - the pattern of yields pikes at the
start of each month.
The 3m10Y curve has surged back from inversion...
See Chart:
The market's expectations of Fed dovishness have hawkishly
surged in the last three days...
See Chart:
The dollar ended the day unchanged, finding support overnight
at around 97.00 figure once again...
See Chart
DXY Dollar Index
Copper and Crude jumped as China's data hit but copper did
not follow through at all...
See Chart:
Gold futures
managed to scramble back above $1300 early on but then
someone decided to puke over a billion notional paper gold into the market...
See Chart:
But if China is so awesome for the global economy, why didn't
copper rally?
See Chart:
And if oil is such a great signal of global growth, why
aren't inflation expectations following through?
See Chart:
Finally, we
note that the last 24 hours have seen Aussie PMI plunged, Japan's Tankan
disappointed, South Korean exports disappointed (-8.2% YoY), German
manufacturing massacre, French PMI miss, Italian new car registrations
collapsed, EU inflation weak, US retail sales
unexpectedly tumbled... but fuck yeah - we will focus on China's PMI!
…
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In the latest
harbinger of pain for the corporate bond market, Q1 saw the most ratings
downgrades for US corporations relative to upgrades since the beginning of
2016.
by Tyler Durden Mon, 04/01/2019
Here's another paradox for traders to digest.
In a quarter
in which virtually every asset class posted positive returns, the lowest,
BBB-rated investment-grade bonds shruged off well-publicized
fears of a "fallen angel" tsunami, i.e., a
wave of downgrades to junk, and
soared to the best first quarter performance since 1995.
According to Bloomberg debt rated BBB returned 5.8% in
the first three months, compared to a drop of 2.1% in the first quarter of
2018.
See Chart: BBB boom
But it's not
junk bonds we are concerned about at least in the context of this post, but
rather the BBB IG space: as a reminder, BBB
debt now accounts for nearly 60% of the entire $6.4 trillion US
investment grade space, with a similar portion for Europe. This is why
virtually every fixed income luminary has warned that
the next recession may be catalyzed by massive downgrades which would blow up the
junk bond space, which at last check was roughly one-third the size of the
entire BBB-rated bond universe.
See Chart
BBB as % of total IG
And yet,
despite the blistering return of the lowest-rated IG debt, concerns of massive
downgrades are starting to be realized: according to the
latest S&P data compiled by Bloomberg, the first quarter saw the most credit ratings downgrades for U.S.
companies relative to upgrades since the beginning of 2016.
See Chart:
Ratio of S&Ps credit upgrades
to downgrades
The Q1 downgrade wave was sprearheaded by
several prominent names as major companies including utility PG&E,
retailer J.C. Penney and entertainment giant Walt Disney all had
their ratings cut "in a quarter that saw nearly
two downgrades for every upgrade."
Worse, the ratio
dipped for both investment grade and high yield bonds, with downgrades
outpacing upgrades for higher quality issuers for only the fourth time in the
last twelve quarters.
So is the bond downgrade frenzy merely a
delayed reaction to the sharp price drops observed in the fourth quarter and
the start of Q1, or are the rating agencies ahead of the curve for once? If so, and if the downgrade cascade accelerates from here and
engulfs the BBB space in coming months and quarters, the stellar bond market
performance observed in the first quarter may end up being the biggest bull
trap since 2007.
….
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... if such deterioration persists, our rules-based approach to
identifying cycle phases could very well call a switch from expansion to
downturn as early as next month.
The probability the US cycle indicator
switching from expansion to downturn is the most elevated it's been since
2005/2006, suggesting an imminent cycle peak. In
fact, a backtest shows that the probability of a downturn is now higher
than it was either right before the global financial crisis or just before the
dot com bust.
See Chart:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-01/morgan-stanley-sees-70-chance-downturn-early-next-month
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ
duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
Fascit alert: PEOPLE
WILL NEVER, EVER REBEL AS LONG AS THEY'RE SUCCESSFULLY PROPAGANDIZED Prison cell vs. freedom
"The difficulty of our times is not that we are locked up; we
aren’t. The difficulty is that far
too many of us are manipulated into choosing a prison cell over freedom..."
====
Another fascit alert: THE
LATEST SCHEME TO TURN GUN OWNERS INTO CRIMINALS
Gun-owners, they are coming...
[[ Fascis: gun = criminals = you agree with US Constit: you’re criminal ]]
====
Meaning of Fascist “freedom”: THE
SCAPEGOATING CONTINUES: PROGRAMMER WHO BUILT "FLASH CRASH TRADER"
SOFTWARE GOES ON TRIAL
He's being charged
with conspiracy to
manipulate markets despite never
having executed a single trade...
====
Concern is rising because the coming snow melt
coincides with unusually active
seismic activity around the Yellowstone Caldera, one of the world’s
super-volcanos...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo
Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global
depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
The world’s central banks
are counting on the power of gold to help them through bad economic
times...
====
One Mi-35M2 combat
helicopter can deliver special
forces to an area, providing fire support if necessary and
evacuating the team after the mission is fulfilled.
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n
GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion
via wars & danger of WW3
US main
business.. selling weapons to accelerate WW3
====
SHOWS RT
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search
f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI ORG
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- ¿Cómo está Caracas después de tres apagones?
- Buque de guerra chino con cañón electromagnético zarpa rumbo al Pacífico
- Ni Apple, ni Microsoft: Esta empresa la más rentable del mundo
- Maduro designa nuevo ministro de Energía tras ataques al sistema eléctrico
- 'Destripadores de Chicago': final de culto satánico que mató mujeres en US.
- 80 anivers de la Guerra Civil española: Un país a la sombra de su pasado
- US se quedará sin aguacates si Trump cierra la frontera con México
- Maduro anuncia inicio de 30 días del racionamiento eléctrico en Venezuela
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US
political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-Reuters Confirms That Bolton Torpedoed the
Hanoi Summit By Mike Whitney
- No Reds Under Our Beds After All By Eric Margolis
- Trump prefers mocking asylum seekers over
finding solutions By Maria Cardona
- Only the Struggle Matters By Chris Hedges
- God and U.S. Foreign Policy By Lawrence Davidson
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US
Politics & Geopolitics
- Marcelo Suárez Et al America’s
Dirty War on Immigrant Children
- Robert Fisk Why
Does the US Continue to Grovel to Israel?
- Dean Baker A Winnable Battle Our Side Doesn’t Want to
Fight
- Thomas Knapp Big
Govnt and Big Tech Versus the Internet and Everyone
- Elizabeth Keyes As
a Dead Canary in the Twitter Coal Mine
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics
& Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy
Goodman’ team
- “Our
Will of Life Is Stronger Than Despair”: Palestinian Ahmed Abu Artema on Israeli
Attacks on Gaza
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PRESS TV
Resume of
Global News described by Iranian observers..
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