ND APR 21 19
SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y
propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over.
Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
...fantastical
narratives are emerging to justify the valuations and the price momentum
as folks cannot square reality
with non stop levitation in equity prices...
Things are so awesome when we are experiencing some of the loosest financial conditions
in history:
See Chart:
Chicago FED National Financial
Conditions Index
And global liquidity keeps
running at record levels:
See Chart:
Global Money Supply
No wonder stocks are
celebrating and flirting with record highs, indeed record highs are already
seen printed on tech and consumer discretionary:
See Chart:
No wonder investors are chasing
after money losing IPOs like it’s 1999:
See Chart:
Percentage of IPOS with
EPS<0
And are piling in their cash
after a 24% rally off the lows:
See Chart:
Jumping In: SPY sees largest
inflow of the year [[Does the graphic fit this message?]
After all Q1 GDP is flying higher to
unforeseen levels.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP
forecasting model, always having an adventurous relationship with reality, is
now forecasting a 2.8% GDP print for Q1, following a 0.4% projection just 6
weeks ago:
See Chart:
Evolution of Atlanta FED GDP
now real estimates for 2019: Q1
Source: GDPNow
This is how awesome things are and
setting up for the Combustion case I outlined,
or the melt-up case as Larry Fink has suggested.
Yes, things are
truly awesome except that they are not, but rather there’s a big mismatch in everything. Amongst all
this awesomeness the Fed has halted all rate hikes and doesn’t forecast one
until sometime in 2020.
Here with unemployment at 3.8%
and unemployment claims at 50 year lows:
See Chart: FRED
Blue: Initial claims vs.
Read: Effective FED Funds Rate
Another big mismatch of course are markets themselves. If debt, yield curves and inflation don’t
matter then one would think all ships would benefit from the rising tide in
everything. But this does not appear to be the case:
See Chart:
NorthmamTrader.com
Small caps are below their February highs
and the banking sector is below its March highs. I suppose the financial sector
and small caps no longer matter either. But unless these sectors can play
catch up in a hurry this may all end up prove to be a fallacy.
And while consumer discretionary stocks
are flying to new all time highs they can’t help hide the reality that nearly
half of all Americans are financially (what’s the technical term?) totally screwed:
“About 42 percent of Americans have less than
$10,000 saved for when they retire, according to a study by GoBankingRates”.
This
is how awesome things are:
See Chart:
What aren’t Americans Saving
for Retirement
They
either don’t make enough money, are struggling to pay bills, their jobs don’t
offer retirement plans or they blew their savings due to an emergency.
Good thing inflation is dead. Yes, that’s sarcasm.
…
[[ For discussion of the
technical please see this video below:
NT Missmach Northman.trader. Navigating
Changing Markets ]]
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-21/mismatch-people-are-embracing-bubble-happens-every-bubble
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Here an optimistic –pro Trump- view of US
current Econo. Read my Comment at d end
“Be fearful
when others are greedy.”
I have updated my charts to show a couple
of important points.
As noted, the overbought condition
(top panel) is now back to where was the last time we were registering “all-time highs.” Currently, that signal has flattened out to the point where
it is dangerously close to crossing lower. Any additional weakness this coming
week will likely trigger that sell signal.
See Chart: look read lines & bolts
Secondly, as noted by
StockTrader’s Almanac on Friday (shown above):
“As of the today’s close, the slower moving MACD ‘Sell’ indicator
applied to S&P 500 has turned negative. However, DJIA’s MACD ‘Sell’
indicator is still positive. Because DJIA’s indicator remains positive, the
criteria to issue our Seasonal MACD Sell Alert has not been satisfied.
Currently, a single-day DJIA decline in excess of 1.08% would be needed to turn
DJIA’s MACD indicator negative. A single day gain of 0.50% or more by S&P
500 would turn S&P 500’s MACD indicator positive.
Continue to hold long
positions associated with DJIA’s and S&P 500’s ‘Best Six Months.’ We will
issue our Seasonal MACD Sell signal when corresponding MACD Sell indicators
applied to DJIA and S&P 500 both crossover and issue a new sell signal.”
That advice corresponds well with our
current positioning as well. We
remain long-biased equities currently but are still maintaining some hedges and
an overweight position in cash.
As we wrote last week for our RIA PRO
subscribers (Try
it FREE for 30-days and get access to daily trading ideas on the
markets, sectors, portfolio positions and long-short idea list):
See Chart:
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF NYSE
1-
SPY is extremely
overbought, so a test and failure at the highs will not be surprising.
2- Note the “buy” signal in the lower panel is at a level which has always denoted
at least short-term market tops. So currently risk outweighs further reward.
As my friend Gerry notified me of on
Friday, Tom Bowley pointed our similar issues:
“In this chart note these things:
- The SPX is facing major overhead resistance which at 2905 as of 18-April is just shy of the “all-time high of 2940.91” (the red line) set early last October,
- The current negative divergence between the declining PPO and the rising SPX and
- The relatively high value for the RSI at 67.”
See Chart:
S&P 500 8 Months Chart:
The
extremely extended “buy signal,” lower panel, is NOT sustainable. It will
revert, and the likelihood is it will revert sooner rather than later.
I am not suggesting the market is about
to crash, BUT a retest
of the 50-dma is highly likely. A
break of the 50-dma will quickly test the 200-dma and below that things become
much more concerning.
This
is only due to the fact that the bar for Q1 earnings has been set so low. The problem for
stocks, however, will not be the “beat of earnings” but
the “forward guidance.”
With
the “trade war” still in progress, a stronger dollar, higher
oil prices and rates, there will likely be concerns about forward quarters. Substantial
downward revisions to guidance could take some of
the “wind out of the market’s sails.”
The chart below is the S&P
500/USD ratio. You will notice that when there are
sharp accelerations over a couple of quarters it begins to impact asset prices.
One concern of a conclusion of a “trade deal” will be a
sharp acceleration in the dollar which will make any “resolution” more like
a “sell the news event.”
See Chart:
$SPX:
$USD S&P 500 LARGEST CUP INDEX/USD vs. Quarterly Index
Lastly, market “complacency” is
back to levels which have denoted short-term corrections in the market
previously with near record levels of short-volatility positioning.
See Chart:
VIX- Non- Commercial-
NETPositioning
Yes,
since investors did sell the December lows, they are now buying the
February-March highs. But to Doug’s point, investors are still heavily weighted towards
equity.
See Chart:
The investor Syndrome: Sell
Low/Buy high
Fink’s
comments: The comfort of ever popular ETFs
(hawked by BlackRock) may have
some very good reasons to be wary of equities at this point in time.
The world is clearly upside down. Importantly, global interest rates (with $11 trillion of sovereign debt at
negative returns ) are delivering a message of
disappointing aggregate economic growth. So,
low rates, in and of themselves is not, as Fink suggests, a reason to run to equities.
With growing political turmoil, the risks of a policy mistake, the lack of coordination
between G-8 powers, untenable levels of debt (in both the private and
public sectors), evidence that high frequency global
economic statistics and the corporate profit outlook are eroding, and with central banks believing in a smooth
monetization of debt – the outlook is not necessarily
getting better as the price of financial assets continue to climb.
Indeed, despite Fink’s protestations, investor optimism has actually materially risen – I base this statement on
a near three multiple (year to
date) expansion in the S&P’s price earnings ratio.
Coincident with this has been a reversal, from net short to a near 12
month high in speculative long S&P exposure – as well as an explosion in
IPO offerings (many of them experiencing a “profitless
prosperity.”)
…
My Comment:
Apparently some Investors get
out from the syndrome “Sell Low/Buy high”
.. not all of them, but the big ones who are really buying .. It is showed by the “Fear
& Greed” thermometer : greed is in green, not extreme green, but green, said Trump. A question remain: are
the big investors investing their own money or the money given by QEs?.. the
thermometer won’t say nothing about the fake economy (the collusion between big
speculators and FED bankers). One of
them: Warren Buffett suggested that nothing is certain, there is not
sustainable growth, the fear is still there, inside the big ones too: they
borrow money, and they may be forced to pay later on, as happen during the time
of FDR. In Warren Buffett words: “Be
fearful when others are also greedy.” Greed is their nature and is feeding the real
collapse of US & World neoliberal economy .
READ THIS: Stock crush 2019:
Like Unsuspecting Lambs, Americans Are Being Led To
The Stock Market Slaughterhouse… https://pro.banyanhill.com/p/CRASH/PSCEU627/?h=true
…
SOURCE: of THE
FEAR OF MISSING OUT :
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete;
it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"We
even had entire training courses" — Mike Pompeo
unplugged.
====
"We are
fast approaching the stage of the ultimate inversion: the stage where
the government is free to do anything
it pleases, while the citizens may act
only by permission..."
====
Washington
is once again openly violating
international law and the rest of the world has nothing to say?
====
With residents
fed up by the homelessness crisis, city leaders and their allies
coordinate a PR campaign to convince
them that everything is fine...
====
Whole
Foods and Keurig Dr. Pepper were found to have toxic levels
of arsenic in their bottled water.
====
“It’s hard to look at this as anything other than completely damning... the
Department of Education is asleep at
the switch..."
====
One
current technician at the plant recently found chewing gum holding together a door’s trim.
====
The bug in
Mueller’s report released on Thursday is that he accepts that the Russian government interfered in the election.
Trump should challenge that,
says VIPS...
====
With a crowded field of 17, presidential candidates raised big numbers for the
first quarter of 2019...
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran
search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
The Made-by-FBI indictment of
Julian Assange does look like a dead man walking. No evidence. No documents. No surefire testimony. Just a crossfire
of conditionals...But never underestimate
the legalese contortionism of US government functionaries.
====
"...a
great hope has presented itself as the Titanic that is the City of
London and Wall Street continues to
sink ever faster into the icy waters of history."
====
Does Warsaw
really believe Russia is about to launch an invasion of Europe? For what
purpose?
====
Criminal violence and imperial debacle:
1-
Over 10,000 deaths in just the past 5 months.
2-
At
least 8 coordinated bombing attacks, over 200 dead and 450 wounded.
====
CIA remote
viewers obviously saw this coming...
====
Argentina has been
“printing money for the people” MMT-style for many years... the main reason why a country with an
excellent education, human capital, and high economic potential has third-world inflation rates.
====
China
will “take the foot off the accelerator” mildly but not to “step hard on the
brake” because of the risk of a double dip in the economy and market,
especially because of the 70th year anniversary of the founding of the PRC
====
The state
of our world is shifting beneath our feet - economics alone no longer equate to satisfaction, let alone happiness...
See Map
….
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
VIENTO SUR
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Zelenski gana las presidenciales de Ucrania con 73,16 % de los votos
- López Obrador rompe su silencio y promete justicia para las víctimas de la matanza de Minatitlán
- Ricardo Patiño a RT: "Lenín Moreno es un impostor profesional; todo lo que hace fue programado con la CIA"
- Experto en derecho internacional señala un posible pretexto para una intervención militar en Venezuela
- Científicos aseguran que los abortos selectivos evitaron el nacimiento de más de 23 millones de niñas
- Cuba tildó de agresión la medida de EE.UU. sobre bienes nacionalizados
- Especial Black Lives: Ilusión (Episodio 6)
- Keiser Report ¿Volverán a subir algún día las tasas de interés?
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that
leads to more business-wars from US-NATO
allies
- ECOL “The
End of Ice” and Other Threats to the Planet By M Welch and D J
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by
Iranian observers..
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