viernes, 5 de abril de 2019

ND APR 5 19 SIT EC y POL



ND APR 5 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

US Economy today:  HERE Your “Everything is awesome” Plan
Remember Sunday... when a single Chinese 'soft' data survey beat prompted panic-buying around the world? Well, by the end of the week, Global macro data had extended its decline (but that never stopped stocks)...
See Chart:

Because only one thing matters... "a trade deal"
See Chart:
Trade Deal Story Counts vs. Vix

Never mind though, the market is not the economy and so "It's not the economy, everything is awesome, stupid!"
China was closed last night but the last five days have been insane in Chinese stocks leaving ChiNext up over 9%... (SHCOMP's 2nd best week since March 2016 to its highest since March 2018)
See Chart:

China is leading the world with another leg higher, crushing Europe and US... BUT
We can still send more weapons to Taiwan.. Enjoy!
See Chart:

Odd day for The Dow, rallied after the close on Xi comments, ripped on the jobs data, dumped at cash open, dumped after Europe close, then pumped and dumped into the close...
See Chart:

And the jaws between bonds and stocks remain the widest...
See Chart:

And the 10Y Yield remained below 2.50% (and 30Y below 3.00%)...
See Chart:

Inflation Breakevens were up on the week but flatlined the last few days even as Oil exploded...

The Dollar ended the week unchanged (despite all the excitement over a trade deal) despite some volatility intraweek...
See Chart:

Cryptos had their best week of the year with Bloomberg's Galaxy Crypto Index up 21.5%... led by Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin.
See Chart:

As an aside, Copper/Gold and the UST 10Y yield have recoupled (just like Jeff Gundlach said)...

Finally, it's different this time... for now...
See Chart:

And while 'risk-on' is in full swing, positioning in 'risk-off' assets is not playing along with the theme at all!!
See Chart:
S&P  vs. Complacency Index
And remember, Q1 was hedge funds' worst start to a year since 2012 (presumably since they follow some rational investment thesis that simply does not compute with the new normal equity market)...
….
----
----
"I personally think the Fed should drop rates, I think they really slowed us down, there's no inflation, in terms of quantitative tightening, it should really be quantitative easing..."
TRUMP SAYS FED SHOULD DROP RATES, STOP QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING
...Trump's comments show that he won't let up the pressure on Jerome Powell after reportedly trying to replace him with Kevin Warsh, and declaring Powell one of the worst hires of his administration.
"I personally think the Fed should drop rates, I think they really slowed us down, there's no inflation, in terms of quantitative tightening, it should really be quantitative easing...you would see a rocket ship. Despite that, we're doing very well."
On the subject of the US-China trade negotiations, Trump said he didn't want to predict that a deal would happen, and defended his decision to tweet a video mocking Joe Biden's history of inappropriately touching women, saying he didn't see Biden as a threat. He also said he wouldn't be attending the White House Correspondents dinner because it's "too negative" and that he would be holding a rally instead.
Trump's rate-cut comments were echoed by Larry Kudlow, one of his top economic advisors, who said during an interview Friday morning that the US economy "could do with a rate cut."
Trump's comments provoked and immediate response in yields and the dollar.
See Chart:
Payrolls vs. Trump QE

The administration's calls for a rate cut come after the yield curve briefly inverted last month, which economists worry could portend a recession in the indeterminate future.
Of course, Trump didn't always feel this way about the virtues of loose monetary policy.
Trump: The Fed's reckless policies of low interest and flooding the market with dollars needs to be stopped or we will face record inflation.
Now that the president has officially started the conversation about QE4, how long until mainstream economists follow suit?
[[ Trump: in the road of Erdogan in Turrkey .. continue blackmailing people n you out. The going down of Capital reproduction doesn’t depend on a Minist of Econ.. it is the neoliberal system that became obsolete.. you can print more USD.. it won’t solve not]]
----
----
Whether they want to or not, Americans continue to drown even deeper in debt, and enjoying every minute of it.
As shown in the chart below, there has been a decisive slowdown in total monthly consumer credit creation, which has shrunk notably from $26 billion last July to just over $15 billion in February.
See Chart:
Sequential change in revolving & non revolving Credit (SMM)

Revolving credit increased by $3.0 billion, an increase from January's $2.6 billion, rising to $1.061 trillion, a new all time high in total credit card debt outstanding.
See Chart:

There was a small decline in the monthly increase in non-revolving credit, i.e. student and auto loans, which jumped by $12.2 billion, down from the $15.1 billion increase in January, and bringing the nonrevolving total also to a new all time high of $2.984 trillion.
See Chart:

And while February's continued rebound in credit card use may assuage some concerns about the sharp slowdown in spending in the end of 2018 and start of 2019, and the subsequent plunge in retail sales, as the household savings rate surged by the most in years, one place where there were no surprises, was in the total amount of student and auto loans: here as expected, both numbers hit fresh all time highs, with a record $1.569 trillion in student loans outstanding, an impressive increase of $10.3 billion in the quarter, while auto debt also hit a new all time high of $1.154 trillion, an increase of $8.4 billion in the quarter.
See Chart:
Student vs. car loans
In short, whether they want to or not, Americans continue to drown even deeper in debt, and enjoying every minute of it.
----
----
"To be clear, the failures of the American worker are not failures of capitalism. They’re failures of America’s brand of a centrally planned economy. "
A Growing Gap
The first quarter of 2019 is over and done.  But before we say good riddance.  Some reflection is in order.  To this we offer two discrete metrics.  Gross domestic product and government debt.
See Chart:
US GDP (nominal)  US Federal Dept (total public debt)

US nominal GDP vs total federal debt (in millions of USD) – government debt has exceeded  total economic output for the first time in Q4 2012 and since then its relative growth trajectory has increased – and it seems the gap is set to widen further. [PT]
GDP for the quarter, as estimated by the March 29 update to the New York Fed’s GDP Nowcast, grew at an annualized rate of 1.3 percent.  For perspective, annualized GDP growth of 1.3 percent is akin to getting a 1.3 percent annual raise.  Ask any working stiff, and they’ll tell you… a 1.3 percent raise is effectively nothing.
By comparison, the U.S. budget deficit for fiscal year 2019 is estimated to hit roughly $1.1 trillion.  This amounts to an approximate 5 percent increase of the current $22.2 trillion national debt.  In other words, government debt is increasing about 3.85 times faster than nominal GDP, which is about $21 trillion.
These two metrics offer a rough perspective on the state of the economy.  Deficit spending is grossly outpacing economic growth.  Heavy treatments of fiscal stimulus are being applied.  Yet the economy’s practically running in place.  In short, the state of the economy is not well.
----
----

US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

... the people who are after [Assange] are the very same people who have been after you for 3 years, and who will double their efforts after suffering a huge loss due to Robert Mueller’s No Collusion report...
====
"Hey, I’m under audit.
====

US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

Just say 'no'...
See Chart:
====
Yeah, that sounds about right...
====

SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

----
----

NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

ALAI ORG
                La minga descubre otro fracaso del estado de derecho MHRD 
                México Trump afloja para tensar más  Edo Ibarra
                La crisis llegó a las grandes empresas  CEPA   
====
RT EN ESPAÑOL
----
----

COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

Mike Miller   Complicity
----
----

GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

----
----

DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

----
----

PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

----
===

No hay comentarios:

Publicar un comentario