jueves, 18 de abril de 2019

ND APR 17 19 SIT EC y POL



ND APR 17 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

Read my reaction to:
 
Trump idiotic policy of fostering production of weapons & war abroad is putting at risk the life of American Nation & the life of the whole humanity. WW3 is his aim. We must depose him.. doesn’t matter top-down or bottom-up Rev. Forget election: that is a real trap for “continuity”. What matter is Peace & dismantle of nukes and genocidal wars. Is the time to take streets & force his impeachment & Peace. QUE SE VAYAN TODOS! All his Gvt team must be ended
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A nice elaboration of this thought  is here:
At:
               

ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

[  Trump’ team can say: Mission Accomplished ]]

The US economic data : dumping near two-year lows...
See Chart:

Bonds & Commodities seem in agreement on the state of play...
See Chart:

But stocks disagree...
See Chart:
S&P vs. UST 10Y Yield

And Nasdaq 100 hits a new record high as earnings tumble...
See Chart:
Nasdaq 100  vs.  Nasdaq 100 Forward EPS Consensus

Mission Accomplished indeed.
While Trannies were best, Small Caps stumbled today as The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq traded in an extremely narrow range...
See Chart:

Healthcare stocks were hammered for the second day - the biggest 2-day drop since mid-December's crash began - erasing the YTD gains...
See Chart:
S&P 500 Healthcare

FANG Stocks were weaker today
See Chart:

VIX Flash-crashed before the cash market open and pushed above 13.00 intraday...
See Chart:

Treasury yields were practically unchanged on the day, despite some intraday swings...
See Chart:

30Y Yields briefly pushed above 3.00% but could not hold it...
See Chart:

97.00 remains the magic number for DXY Dollar Index...
See Chart:

WTI rolled over today but copper gained as PMs limped lower...
See Chart:

Despite a crude draw and production cut, WTI fell back below $64...
See Chart:

Finally, don't forget, that WHICH CAN'T LAST FOREVER, WON'T!
See Chart:
S&P Net Dept Per Share  vs.  US Credit Risk (OAS)

Because it's not different this time...
See Chart:
UST 2s10s (Inv)

"You have meddled with the primary forces of nature, Mr Beale, and I won't have it! Is that clear?"
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'worst economic data in the world'

Despite all the talk of a great US economy ready for rebirth now that The Fed has taken its foot off the neck of expansion, US macro-economic data has collapsed (absolutely and relative to expectations) in recent weeks to its lowest since July 2017 - taking on the ugly title of 'worst economic data in the world'...

See these charts:
1-'worst economic data in the world'
2- US Empire State Survey: Manufacturing Business Conditions
3- US Empire State Survey: Six Months outlook business Condit
4- Industrial Production: 1 Month and 1 Year %change
5- Manufacturing Production: 1 Month and 1 Year %change
6- Capacity Utilization
7- Bloomberg Industrial Surprise Index US
8- Even as stocks near record highs.
OPEN SOURCE:
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The outlook among Beige Book contacts in reporting Districts is for "slight-to-modest" growth in the months ahead, suggesting that this time it is the top end of the range that has come down from its traditional "modest-to-moderate" baseline.
See Chart:


In line with this observation, a Reuters diffusion index courtesy of Jeoff Hall, found that the root of the word "strong" appeared 54 times in today's Beige Book, up from 37 in the March 6 version but down from 58 in the January 16 version. Incidence of "weak" was unchanged at 34 in both versions.

See Charts:
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"They are long assets that outperform when growth and rates fall, like cash, EM and utilities, while short assets that require higher growth and rates, such as equities, the Eurozone and banks" 

According to the latest monthly Fund Manager Survey conducted by Bank of America which polled 239 investing professionals with an AUM of $664 billion in the April 5-11 period, investors are now positioned for "secular stagnation" - even as they dipped their toe into risky assets - "They are long assets that outperform when growth and rates fall, like cash, EM and utilities, while short assets that require higher growth and rates, such as equities, the Eurozone and banks" said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist and organizer of the monthly Fund Manager Survey. 

See Chart:
FMS Investors positioned for Low growth and Low Rate: April 19 Global FMS


Here are the notable highlights from the April edition of the FMS:
No recession now: 70% of investors surveyed expect a global recession to start in the second half of 2020 or later...
See Chart:


... but somewhat paradoxically, a whopping 86% believe yield curve inversion does not signal an impending recession, which begs the question: if everyone is discounting the yield curve as a signaling mechanism, why is everyone so convinced that a recession is coming... and tied to that, why is everyone so certain that a yield curve inversion does not indicate a recession?

See Chart:
Does the inversion of the US Yield Curve signal a global recession in 2019?


No growth... and yes to secular stagnation: 66% expect "low growth, low inflation" backdrop, the highest level since Oct'16; allocation to global bank stocks falls to lowest level since Sep'16.

See Chart:
How do you see the global economy trend in the next 12 months?
See more charts at
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio



"This is of great concern to producers out here facing another year of tariffs." 
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With China reporting blowout economic data, many expected the S&P500, just shy of its September highs, to rise above its all time record some time today. It did not, and traders can blame the creeping threat of socialism for today's market action.
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"to advance their own agenda..."
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“The classified appendix raises significant issues associated with the FBI’s failure to review certain highly classified information in support of its Midyear investigation,”
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Such hell-holes is not because of socialists, as assumed by the stupid idiot that wrote this article. On reverse: the socialists have the solution to rebuild these beautiful States: the mixing of capital and labor. The proposal is to create autonomous power from the current centralized neoliberal FED, a power based on the alliance of workers and productive financier capital (excluding the billonaries who don’t care for our nation). The billionaires  plan is to expand their vicious gluttony over RU and China via WW3; that is a stupid dream.. we will be hit by nuke missiles.. even their bunkers inside & abroad will be destroyed.. the MAD (mutual assured destruction)  will prevail. There wont be winners, only destruction at world level. There is not future with the profiteers of neoliberal imperialism. Trump’s team is lying to our nation with his policy of massive production of weapons and wars abroad. His sickness is irresponsible and lethal to our nation & the world. Instead of the fake economy based on USD created from the thin air, and instead of the voracious speculators for Wall Street we can rebuilt our nation with NEW Deals like FDR used to overcome the recession of 1929-35. We are already starting a new recession with our fake economy. With socialism the workers will have the political power together with the productive investors now asphyxiated by big monopolies and transnational corporations. Socialism is that we need now, socialism is the  proposal  that most of the nation need it now, with the exception of the billionaires that enjoy creating a phobia against socialists. We will win, a new FED will emerge after cleaning the swamp.. either by bottom up REV or Top-Down Rev. The military will come with us, starting with the Veteran for Peace who already are allies to our National demand. We will win.. we will start by taking streets demanding Tramp impeachment and PEACE for democratic socialist rule with labor and productive capital at the top. 
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo



The U.S. is in effect at war with Iran.
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"Now that the sugar rush, caused by the threatened tariffs on Chinese goods, has passed..." 
Weekly spot rates for 40' containers for China to the U.S. West Coast plummeted 51% from its October 2018 high of 2852 to 1,267 by the end of March. In the last 14 days, the spot rate has rebounded to 1,586.

See Chart:


Drewry noted that the timing of the spot rate decline "could not have occurred at a more inopportune moment," given that shippers are in the process of trying to secure rate increases on annual contract renewals that begin on May 1.

"Earlier in the year, it seemed the carriers might be able to secure some modest increase in revenue from their BCO [beneficial cargo owner] contracts, but those hopes now seem dashed," suggested Drewry.

"The only discussion point that remains is to what extent the shipping lines can secure some agreement to a floating BAF [bunker adjustment factor] arrangement within those contracts, so that when, towards the end of 2019, the carriers start having to pay a premium for low-sulfur fuel oil, they can rely on some mechanism to kick in to automatically recover some of those additional costs," it added.

The "tariff hangover" comes at a time when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week cut its global economic growth forecasts for 2019.

"This is a delicate moment for the global economy," IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said in a recent news conference.

More or less, the synchronized global slowdown has put developed and emerging economies into its most vulnerable spot since the financial crisis.
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 Another sabotage?

"Everyone in the market knows that Turkey doesn’t have enough foreign currency reserves to mount a sustained and credible defence of the lira."
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“Unfortunately, the US sees 5G technology as a strategic weapon.”
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The dancer: a heavy-ugly-obese man full of money stolen abroad

                ….
                ….
....


SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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SHOWS RT:
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

               Dónde está: Evaporada en el aire…   Carolina Vásquez
Españ      Las cloacas del periodismo  Pascual Serrano
ECOL     Alimentarnos sin petróleo?    Javier Guzmán
               China y sus inversiones en los países del Sur  Daud Khan
               Recordar Girón y Vietnam: buen remedio para Trump  Patricio M
Perú        Vizcarra toca fondo  César Zelada  Perú no es país qu se arrodilla
               Operación Cóndor: cuándo comenzó  Juan del Sur
Vid-R     Bienestar de Europa bebe de fuente  africana  Sani Ladan 
Mex       México ya pagó el muro miles de veces  Marcos Dávila 
Mund     Educación para los rohinyás en Bangladesh  Tharanga Y 
               Memoria obrera y libertad  Lluis Rabell 
               Cinco lecciones de movilizaciones antifascistas  Iñaki Gil
Ecua        La otra cara del empleo en Ecuador  Jonathan Báez
Cuba       Ley Helms-Burton: Una historia silenciada (II)  Rdo Alarcón
                 
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ALAI ORAG

-Perú Murió Alan García   Isaac Bigio  [ Asesinó Presos Polit ]
           Cancelo via inter-oceanica pa unirBRA-Pe-Bol-Chi-Par
           Fue un traidor a la Constit de Haya de la Torre d 1979
           Adopto la Constit de Fujimori de 1993: otro asesino.
           Fue servil al imperio USA en toda su polit anti-latina
           Muchos socialistas tuvimos que huir de su Gob fascist
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

-American Empire Is Very Much Over Already  The Saker inter Dmitry Orlov
-Julian Assange’s Victory By Andre Vltchek  10 Years .. 10 Mill Docts 
-VIPS Criticize Mueller Refusal To Interv Assange By Vet Intell  Profes for San-VIPS
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..


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