ND
APR 16 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
US Economic situation today:
US equity markets
are within an algo's angry inch of record highs - which must mean everything is
awesome, right?
There's just one thing... US Economic Data surprises are at their weakest
since July 2017 and are currently at the worst of all the world's majors...
See Chart:
We've seen
this before...
See Chart:
And one
more thing... earnings expectations aren't buying the bounce either..
See Chart:
And one
more thing - Volume is notably (negatively) diverging from price action in this
latest surge for the highs...
See Chart:
And
finally, one last thing - Dr.Lumber (Dr.Copper's much more knowledgable big
brother) is not buying it... again!
See Chart:
So WHAT'S
LIFTING STOCKS? SIMPLE - THE CENTRAL BANKS..
See Chart:
Because in
this fragile world - as an increasing number of non-elites realize the curtain
has been pulled back and the level of stocks is all that matters...
US markets
were less exuberant that Europe and China but managed gains again. AAPL's weakness dragged the market briefly red
in the last 30 mins, but as always it bounced... Nasdaq
best on the day, S&P managed very modest gains...
See Chart:
AAPL
dipped into the red, then the machines bid it back to $200...but that did not
hold and dragged the broader markets lower...
See Chart:
As Bloomberg
notes, Walmart’s $4b bond offering appeared to
weigh on Treasuries after it was announced, while Wednesday’s
scheduled deluge of Chinese economic data was an incentive to hedge.
As Bloomberg
notes, Walmart’s $4b bond offering appeared to weigh on Treasuries after
it was announced, while Wednesday’s scheduled deluge of Chinese economic
data was an incentive to hedge.
With 30Y
testing up towards 3.00% (notably decoupling from the S&P though on the day)...
See Chart:
And while
US rates have been rising, all eyes are on China's yield spike, which has
driven it back to a critical level against USTs...
See Chart:
The Dollar
Index rallied for a 2nd day but stalled at recent resistance...
See Chart:
Finally,
while we started with a smorgasbord of more macro charts, we leave you with the
biggest of big pictures...
See Chart:
Does this
chart belongs to this year?
….
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IBM is back
to its revenue declining, non-GAAP-EPS-beating-through-low-tax-gimmick ways.
Or rather, it never left.
This means that not long after IBM reported three
consecutive quarters of top-line growth - which followed 22 consecutive
quarters of declines - IBM's Q1 revenue once again dropped after a similar
decline in Q3, and Q4, sliding by 4.7% Y/Y and reminding
investors that for all its non-GAAP and tax fudges, IBM remains a melting ice
cube.
See Chart:
….
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API
reported a surprise crude draw of
3.096mm barrels and gasoline continued to draw too (9th weekly draw
in a row)...
Bloomberg notes, stockpiles, already at the highest since 2017, are set to
rise for a fourth week, according to a Bloomberg survey ahead of government
data due Wednesday.
See Chart:
WTI hovered just above $64 ahead of
the API print and kneejerked higher after the surprise crude draw
See Chart:
‘‘The market has taken a little bit of a breather,’’ said Kyle Cooper, a
consultant at Ion Energy Group in Houston. ‘‘Inventory trends have overall been
very bullish. So unless the overall economies collapse,
and given the risk for lower production out of Venezuela and still lackluster
supply outside of the U.S., I think it’s an uptrend.’’
…
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"More people feel confident that it’s imminent."
What recession.. ask Trump. Everything is awesome. To whom? Ask the Nat
What is ONLINE LENDING?
See Chart:
If a downturn hits, lenders with the weakest balance sheets
will fail first.
"All these different platforms say they can
underwrite in unique ways,"said Robert Wildhack, an analyst
at Autonomous Research. "This will be the first chance we have to see who is right and
who might have been taking shortcuts."
In February, LendingClub guided lower for the year, due to a
sign of growing caution in the industry. The company
doesn't provide loans directly to consumers but earns fees by connecting
borrowers and lenders on its online platform.
See Chart:
Losing Confidence
….
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A very dangerous fallacy has taken the world of economics by storm over the last several years:the idea that there is very
little inflation in the U.S. economy...
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation
indicator is the core personal consumption expenditure price index (excluding
volatile food and energy), which tracks the prices of U.S. consumer goods and
services. The Fed has an official target of 2% annual
inflation, but inflation has been running cooler than that since the Great
Recession according to the core PCE index.
See Chart:
The inflation index most commonly referenced in the
financial media is the core Consumer Price Index or CPI (excluding volatile
food and energy). The core PCI tells a similar message
as the core PCE index: consumer price inflation has been tepid since the Great
Recession.
See Chart:
Wage growth has also been quite low
since the Great Recession:
See Chart:
The chart below shows (which I’ve recreated from a chart made
by Goldman Sachs a couple years ago), assets such as global
stocks and bonds have risen at a much higher rate than global real economy
prices since the current bull market began in March 2009.
See Chart:
Asset Prices vs. Real Economic
Prices
As discussed earlier, the U.S. is currently experiencing a
massive asset bubble due to the Fed’s aggressive, unconventional monetary
policies during and after the Great Recession. The
first of these policies is known as zero interest rate
policy or ZIRP. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate (the Fed Funds
rate) to virtually zero and held rates at record low levels for a record length
of time. Asset and credit bubbles often form when
central banks cut interest rates to artificially low levels because it becomes
much cheaper to borrow, low rates discourage saving and encourage speculation
in riskier assets & endeavors, and because they encourage higher
rates of inflation, to name a few examples. The dot-com
and U.S. housing bubbles formed during relatively low interest rate periods as
well.
See Chart:
In addition to ZIRP, the Fed utilized an unconventional
monetary policy known as quantitative easing or QE, which pumped $3.5 trillion
dollars worth of liquidity into the U.S. financial system from 2008 to 2014.
When conducting QE, the Fed creates new money digitally for the purpose of
buying bonds and other assets, which helps to boost the financial markets. The chart below shows the growth of the Fed’s balance sheet
since QE started in 2008:
See Chart:
As a result of the Fed’s aggressive inflation of the stock
market in the past decade, the S&P 500 rose much
faster than earnings and is now at 1929-like valuations, which means that a
painful correction is inevitable one way or another:
See Chart:
In addition to the fact that U.S. consumer price inflation
has been low since the Great Recession because inflation has been concentrated
in asset prices, there are many reasons to believe that consumer price
inflation is actually running a lot hotter than mainstream economists think it
is (or want you to think it is). According to John Williams,
the proprietor of Shadow Government Statistics, the U.S. CPI formula has been changed
over the years for the purpose of understating inflation.
For example, if we use the same CPI
formula as we did in 1980 (blue line), it shows that inflation has been running
at a nearly 10% annual rate for the past decade rather than the roughly 2% annual
rate that today’s CPI (red line) indicates:
See Chart 1:
Consumer Inflation: Official vs
Shadow Stats (1980 Based)
and Chart 2: 1990 Based:
The chart below from the American
Enterprise Institute shows the dichotomy between high-tech consumer products,
which have been falling in price, and big ticket necessities that have surged
in price and are becoming increasingly out of reach for many Americans:
See Chart:
Price Changes : Jan 1990 to Dec 2018
To summarize, America has a very real inflation
problem, but it’s not where everyone is looking. The
pervasive, but wrong belief that interest rates should remain at ultra-low
levels will only serve to further inflate the asset bubbles that the mainstream
economics world is ignoring or in denial of. Unfortunately,
these bubbles are eventually going to burst and will cause an economic
depression.
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"We’d describe (the MOUs) as anagreement to conspire and coordinate their efforts to attack and
investigate POTUS..."
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One of the
many scandals surrounding President Richard Nixon was his Oval Office recording
system. We know from those recordings that Nixon privately pressured then-Fed Chair Arthur Burns to cut interest
rates before the 1972 election...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
US-based
training program will escalate standoff with Beijing...
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Moments
ago, president Trump just issued the second veto of his presidency, rejecting a
Congressional resolution to end US military support for the Saudi-led war in
Yemen.
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"...all options are
on the table..."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
Trump idiotic policy of fostering
production of weapons & war abroad is putting at risk the life of American
Nation & the life of the whole humanity. WW3
is his aim. We must depose him.. doesn’t matter top-down
or bottom-up Rev. Forget election: that is a real trap for “continuity”. What
matter is Peace & dismantle of nukes and genocidal wars. Is the time to take
streets & force his impeachment & Peace. QUE SE VAYAN TODOS! All his Gvt team must be ended
….
- The US Is Making Concess in Trade Talks with
China by send weapons to
Taiwan
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
Admiro a J Petras pero fue grave error decir
eso el 2002. El
Tema combin Capit-Soc fue valido
con la NEP de Lenin y otros
Españ Cuántos tipos de voto hay? Santiago Alba Rico
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ALAI ORG
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RT EN
ESPAÑOL
- ¿Qué es el CSIS y por qué organizó una reunión secreta para el uso de la fuerza militar en Venezuela?
- El personal diplomático de Venezuela abandona la Embajada en Costa Rica tras la orden de expulsión
- Por qué el incendio en la catedral de Notre Dame es una catástrofe para toda la humanidad
- "Busco alguna pista que me lleve a mi hijo": La lucha de las madres de desaparecidos en México
- Ecuatorianos marchan en Quito contra gobierno de Lenín Moreno
- Llega a Venezuela el primer avión con ayuda humanitaria de la Cruz Roja
- Bolsonaro confirma el abandono de la Unasur
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
- Israeli voters have chosen brutality with
Bibi By Robert Fisk
- Trump Dances to Israel's Tune By Philip Giraldi
- Trump Warns ICC Against Followup on Americ-
Israeli War Crimes By IMEMC
News
- Julian Assange: Political Prisoner By Ron Paul
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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