ND
APR 30 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
“Never gonna let you down?”
BTW - it's not just US markets that
entirely decoupled from fun-durr-mentals...
See Chart:
US Stocks lumped into the EU close
(after Mulvaney spooked stocks with China trade deal headlines) and then ripped
back, extending gains after Trump raised the idea of The Fed slashing rates and
QE... S&P was glued to unchanged all afternoon...
See Chart:
GOOGL spooked Nasdaq futures (as did
weak China PMI and Mulvaney)...
See Chart:
With investors having hugged their margin clerks for months,
hoping to chase outsized returns during what many have dubbed a melt up, today
they are hugging the toilet bowel instead as the year’s hottest trade in stocks is suffering a huge market-value loss over the
previously noted Google ad revenue meltdown.
See Chart:
Led by an
earnings-driven sell-off at Alphabet, FAANGs are on
track to lose more than $100 billion in combined capitalization, and are set to suffer their second-biggest market cap drop of
this year.
See Chart:
The culprit of course was Alphabet, which dropped 8.3% after
its its ad revenue growth posted a sharp slowdown, resulting in a $68.3 billion
market cap loss. The rest of the drop was due to Apple, whose 2.1% drop
resulted in nearly $20 billion wiped out, and came just ahead of Apple’s own
results, due after the market closes. When the FAANGs last saw $100 billion
erased from their valuations, it was after Apple cut its outlook in January, which wiped almost
$70 billion from the iPhone maker’s valuation.
See Chart:
VIX and Stocks continue to decouple
- Call-buying or protection bid?
See Chart:
Treasuries were bid, erasing
yesterday's losses...
See Chart:
10Y Yield roundtripped 5bps
intraday, fading back to 2.50% by the close...
See Chart:
The Dollar Index slipped for the 4th
day in a row ahead of the FOMC meeting..
See Chart:
DXY Dollar Index
Green Shoots, shot?
See Chart:
China Macro Surprise Index
Finally, the S&P 500 is up 17.4%
in 2019, making it the fourth best
start to a year in history.
See Table:
….
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WTI slipped
back below $64 after API reported a much bigger than expected 6.81mm barrel
crude inventory build in the last week (the 5th in the last 6 weeks)...
Oil prices rallied on the day amid a sliding dollar and
increased protests in Venezuela adding to concerns about supply (despite a
slowdown in China PMI potentially questioning demand).
“The market is currently witnessing the
largest number of barrels subject to potential outage in many years, between
Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria, Algeria and Libya,” said Leo
Mariani, a KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. analyst.
After a surprise crude build last week, expectations were
for another small stock rise and yet another gasoline drawdown and API did not
disappoint with a large 6.8mm crude build... This is the 11th weekly draw in gasoline (and 7th weekly draw in
distillates) in a row...
See Chart:
“We have to keep in
mind that with more than 12 million barrels being produced, until we ramp back
those refineries up, we will probably see crude stocks build,” Gene
McGillian, manager of market research at Tradition Energy, says
WTI hovered around $64 ahead of the
API print and knee jerked lower after
See Chart:
….
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"The
problem for the Fed, is that if growth continues at anything like this pace,
the labor market will tighten much further this year, and the question of rate
hikes will be back on the agenda.”
Tomorrow, at 2pm, the FOMC will leave its rates unchanged.
FEDERAL
FUNDS RATE: Money markets
have assigned a 97.5% probability that the FOMC will keep rates at 2.25-2.50%
this week; there is no chance of a hike, and a very small (but not negligible)
probability of a rate cut.
GROWTH: “The problem for the Fed,” Pantheon says, “is that
if growth continues at anything like this pace, the labour market will tighten
much further this year, and the question of rate hikes will be back on the
agenda.”
INFLATION:
PCE data – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – this
week fell to 1.6% Y/Y in March (exp. 1.7%)…
“On a 12-month basis, overall inflation has declined, largely as a
result of lower energy prices; inflation for items other than food and energy
remains near 2 percent.
IOER:
Analysts note that the premium of the Effective Federal
Funds Rate (EFFR) over the Interest On Excess Reserves (IOER) has widened to a
record 4bps recently. Goldman Sachs observes that volume in Fed Funds trading
has slipped by as much as USD 20bln over the last fortnight, with the bank
suggesting it is likely a result of
Federal Home Loan Banks shifting some of its lending into repo markets. .. Goldman therefore assigns a one-in-three chance that
the Fed could cut the IOER rate from the current 2.40% if the EFFR remains at
2.44%, with the bank stating that the probability might increase if the rate
remained elevated into the FOMC meeting.
FINANCIAL
CONDITIONS:
USD is near its all-time highs. UBS says this 1) it
highlights that this cycle is different than 2008, 2001; 2) the USD strength
has a domestic effect, as it offsets the lower rates guidance for 2019; and if this is becoming an increasing
discussion within the Fed, it would most likely appear in the press conference,
and buzzword would be any focus on financial conditions.
ON THE HORIZON.
BofAML think the Fed will soon indicate that it is
comfortable with core PCE inflation in the 1.5-2.5% range. “This would allow a late-cycle overshoot, which is necessary
for inflation to average 2% in the long run. We think the Fed is also being
patient in order to assess downside risks to global growth and determine how
last year’s confidence shock and financial tightening will impact growth.”
PROPOSED MAY FOMC
STATEMENT READLINE, via Goldman Sachs
Information received since the
Federal Open Market Committee met in January March indicates that the labor market remains
strong but and that growth
of economic activity slowed
from its has been rising
at a solid rate in
the fourth quarter . Payroll
employment was little changed in February, but j Job gains have been solid, on
average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Recent
indicators point to slower growth
of suggest that household spending has picked up, while and business
fixed investment grew more
slowly in the first quarter. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation has declined, largely as a result of lower energy prices; and inflation for items
other than food and energy remains
near have
declined and are running somewhat below 2 percent. On balance, market-based measures of inflation
compensation have remained low in recent months, and survey-based measures of
longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-30/fomc-preview-goldilocks-sets-stage-rate-hikes-or-cuts
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Advertising fraud online is being called the second largest organized crime scheme globally...
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...attempting to destroy this with redistribution schemes will ultimately be harmful to the 99%.
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Bring him home. It’s time...
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Think tanks
backed by NATO and Saudi Arabia eligible to "investigate" on
behalf of US...
[[ Gatotes en la despensa ]]
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“A mediocre coup d'etat attempt has failed,” declared Venezuela's defense
minister Vladimir Padrino.
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"DirecTV,
Net Uno, Intercable, and Telefónica all received orders from Venezuela's
government regulator Conatel to block
CNN."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- 'Greed
of Foreign Investors': JILL STEIN Slams Bolton, Trump for Seeking Regime Change
in Venezuela
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
Áfric Caos permanen de Libia.
Indifer e inercia Robert Charvin
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ALAI ORG
VEN Detalles d “Calle Sin Retorno” d fuerzas
terroristas JM
US reconoce autoría en intento de golpe de Est a Maduro LL
US reconoce autoría en intento de golpe de Est a Maduro LL
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Un militar venezolano cuenta cómo fue engañado para participar en la intentona golpista
- Rusia: "Si Washington dejara de interferir en los asuntos de Ven, mejoraria la situación"
- ¿Qué países apoyan el golpe de Estado de Venezuela y cuáles se oponen?
- US prohíbe a pilotos d aviones USA volar a menos de 8 kilómetros de altura sobre espacio aéreo venezolano
- Trump amenaza con imponer "un embargo total" y sanciones a Cuba por el apoyo militar a Maduro
- Cómo luce Bs As durante la huelga contra el modelo económico de Macri
- Keiser Report " Implementar la tecnología 5G de Huawei se globalizará y a EE.UU. le gustaría dominar ese mundo"
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
-Venezuela: Military Uprising in Caracas By Venezuelanalysis
- Fanatic Running Trump’s Foreign Policy By Daniel Larison
- Clinton Foundn and ISIS were funded from the
same source By J P n J A
- Blame Palestinians for Gaza By Philip Giraldi
- The New Silk Roads reach the next level By Pepe Escobar
- Why Australians Should Fight To Bring Assange
Home By Caitlin Johnstone
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars
from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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