jueves, 11 de abril de 2019

ND APR 10 19 SIT EC y POL



ND APR 10 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco


ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

Current US Econ Situation: Remain Calm!  All is well!

As US economic data plunges to almost two year lows, the message from The Fed's Minutes was clear.
While The Dow trod water today (not helped by BA and HD), Small Caps soared...
See Chart:

Today's rebound was brought to you by yet another short-squeeze, erasing all the short's gains on the week...
See Chart:
“Most Shorter”  Stocks

Today was the biggest short-squeeze since Feb 27th.
Bank stocks bounced as Dems led the Congressional circus...
See Chart:

Treasury yields were notably lower on the day (3bps across the curve), despite equity gains...
See Chart:

With 10Y back well below 2.50%...
See Chart:

The dollar index popped briefly after the Fed Minutes, but faded back to the day's lows as the afternoon rolled on for the 3rd down day in a row...
See Chart:

WTI rebounded as a big gasoline draw trumped a big crude build...
See Chart:

Finally, US Macro data plunged to its weakest since July 2017 and US earnings expectations remain dismally weak as stocks reach back towards record highs...
See Chart:

USA, USA, USA... is the number 1 worst economic data of the majors...
See Chart:
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"not dovish enough"...
See Chart:
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Markets are supposed to be efficient...

Markets failed to be efficient at the time of the dot.com bubble. And, it appears, they are back at the same game:
See Chart:
% of IPOS with Negative earning

As the chart above shows, share of IPOs issued at negative earnings (companies losing money) is now at the levels last seen during the height of the dot.com bubble.
What can possibly go wrong?
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Gurdgiev's view on the future of economic development is outlined briefly in the TEDx talk I gave on Human Capital and the Age of Change.
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"The first thing you have to do is make up what you lost. And it takes years. And then you have to make up what you didn’t earn on what you didn’t have. It’s a pretty steep climb."

Municipalities, states and pension managers the nation over have been - in ponzi like fashion - consistently trying to bet on the stock market to help solve their pension liability woes. "Don't worry, stocks will go up enough!" and "Don't worry, we can take on debt to solve the problem as an investment carry trade!" have been two popular lines of recent thinking. 

For instance, Chicago recently proposed trying to raise billions in debt to help shore up its pension liabilities, ultimately betting that the market would provide returns in excess of what servicing its debt will require. But even in the midst of a bull market over the last decade, investment gains simply haven’t been enough to offset pension liabilities. Maine is a great example. Its public pension fund earned double-digit returns in six of the past nine years but it is still $2.9 billion short of what it needs to afford all future benefits, according to the Wall Street Journal.

This leads retirees, like Daniel Tourtelotte, to ask a simple question: "If the market is doing better, where’s the money?" 

Assets in pensions traditionally rose quicker than liabilities in the five decades starting in the 1950s because the government was expanding and because the number of retirees was smaller. In the 80s and 90s, double digit stock market returns convinced governments that they could afford benefit increases. But shortly thereafter, their assets begin to fall in the aftermath of the dot com bubble, which was shortly followed by the 2008 financial crisis.

See Chart:
Ten-years return on core pensions fund investments

Sandy Matheson, executive director of the Maine Public Employees Retirement System said: “The first thing you have to do is make up what you lost. And it takes years. And then you have to make up what you didn’t earn on what you didn’t have. It’s a pretty steep climb.”

See Chart:
Liabilities and assets for major US Public Pensions

Cities and states then set out to increase their yearly contributions to public pension funds to try and make up for their investment losses. But some simply can’t afford it, as lower tax revenue and increased demand for government services after 2008 resulted in budget crunches. New Jersey, for instance, made less than 15% of its recommended pension payments from 2009 to 2012. Now it has only a little more than 33% of the cash it needs to pay future benefits.

New Jersey State Treasurer Elizabeth Maher Muoio said the state is currently: "...on the long road to addressing our unfunded liability after years of neglect."
See Chart:

Continue reading & see the last chart:

While some funds have benefited from the ten year long bull market, many are still lowering the predictions of what they can earn in the future. And there doesn’t seem to be any relief on the horizon.

See Chart:
Average In vestment return assumption fo major public plans

The state of Maine’s pension fund, which in the 1980s assumed a long-term investment return of 10%, now assumes a rate of 6.75%. If that were just 1% higher, the shortfall of $2.9 billion would drop by more than half to $1.1 billion. Still, assuming a "guaranteed" 6.75% return per year, for no reason at all, is certainly optimistic. 

The decision to lower the rate was based on discussions with the fund's actuary and investment consultant as a result of trying to keep costs predictable. "There’s also an element of better safe than sorry," the system's executive director said. 

Is it any wonder that central banks continue to base monetary policy on the stock market, knowing that if these annual benchmarks aren't hit, pressure on state and local governments will continue? Yet again, the Fed is trying to solve a problem that it created, by simply creating more problems. And it's all tied in ponzi like fashion to how the stock market performs.

It makes you wonder who the perpetual line of market dip buyers really are...
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"Our incentive structures are now so distorted I don’t see any way out. A much bigger crisis is coming and it’s going to hurt. You can either deny it or prepare for it. I know which I’m doing..."
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"The price was a bit inflated as there was a lot of excitement and even hubris around this issue and I would imagine that some of the buyers may have flipped it in the market today."

While the bonds did rise modestly in early trading, Aramco’s longest-dated tranche, the $3 billion bond due in 2049, eventually faded and was last trading at 99.3 cents on the dollar, just barely above the break price of 98.553.

See Chart:
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

Alternative title: "FOMC Minutes show market is now in charge"
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Misleading tactics are often used as a tool for those that need tojustify something that makes little to no sense and violates moral code...
See Graphic:

U.S. government and the Fed are engaged in misreading the optics of a series of measures in the economy to justify their actions as evidenced by the following:
  1. Fed policy is influenced by the constituents of the Central Bank which includes the federal government, major global banking institutions, and the wealthiest 1%
  2. U.S. interest rates, the global benchmark for the price of money, are manipulated by Fed policy
  3. Stock market valuations are heavily influenced by manipulated interest rates and currencies
  4. Stock market prices are manipulated higher by share buybacks facilitated by low-interest rates
  5. The federal government, through advocacy of the Securities Exchange Commission’s (SEC) share buyback Rule 10b-18, endorses stock price manipulation policies
“We tend to fight the next war in the same way we fought the last one. We are prisoners of our own experience. It was a kind of oversimplification of the problem combined with our overconfidence that caused us, I think, to be arrogant. And it’s very, very difficult to dispel ignorance if you retain arrogance.” – Lieutenant General Sam Wilson, Army

Federal Reserve actions and the Vietnam War are worlds apart, but the thinking in the mind of the bureaucrat is very similar. Misleading tactics are often used as a tool for those that need to justify something that makes little to no sense and violates moral code.
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Really? One woman "was separated from her breastfeeding baby daughter, who was less than two months old" 
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"Bash a banker day" has finally arrived on Capitol Hill.
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...RACIST?
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It would be long overdue...
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...pay attention to when the 'outrage' of the onlookers begins...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

"There are two kinds of people who argue that the dollar cannot be dethroned: those with an agenda who seek to keep the masses oblivious to the threat, and the useful idiots who have attached their egos to fiat like it is some kind of national flag."
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Émile Coué was a French psychologist and pharmacist who introduced a popular method of psychotherapy and self-improvement based on optimistic autosuggestion, known as La Méthode Coué (The Coué Method).
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They tell us that we are “free”, but it is just a lie. 
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It last held the title for two months beginning in April 2015...
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It looks like the EU and UK split the difference between a short extension and a long one.
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After a nearly two year hiatus, North Korea may soon be launching test nukes across the Pacific again, much to the chagrin of Japan which tends to be right below the flight path, and this time Kim Jong Un may have the backing of both Xi and Putin.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION

ECON     La batalla por la alimentación del futuro  Alejandro Nadal 
                Precaried capitalista y el temor a una nueva recesión  E Camín
                De la contracción a la recesión?  Eduardo Lucita
USA       INAGUANTABLE   David Brooks 
ARG       Miedos y rencores de la derecha  Gabriel Cocimano 
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ALAI ORG

UE         Problemas de integración real y Brexit  Oscar Y Arnando
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RT EN ESPAÑOL

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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

- Yet Another Senator from Israel  By Philip Giraldi
- America Is No Longer A Nation  By Paul Craig Roberts
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’  team

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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..

Programs   A study of an Irony  Pol Rights vs. Civil Liberties
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