ND
APR 7 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
WELCOME TO
THE THEATER OF THE ABSURD: THE MOST JAWBONED MARKET IN HISTORY
The lowest job claims in 49 years coupled with
the loosest financial conditions in 25 years, yet the Fed panic stopped all
rate hikes following a 20% market drop and for all intents and purposes has
ended its rate hike cycle.
$SPX rallying 23%
off the December lows and coming within 1.2% of all time highs on Friday and
the president of the United Stated calling for rate cuts and a recommencement
of QE.
$SPX Q1 earnings projected to come in negative yet markets ignoring all
bad economic surprise data presuming the slowdown to be over.
Markets
racing ever higher on negative fund flows, but supported by record buybacks, $270B in Q1 alone, over $1
trillion in just the past 5 quarters.
Daily jawbone efforts from the administration to signal an imminent China
deal strategically placed to coincide with market open, market close or futures
open ensuring gap ups with many never getting filled
So let’s
all just admit it and cut rates, go back to QE and blow the biggest stock market
bubble in history. After all the bull market has no expiration date. No really:
See picture
The business cycle
no longer exists, because, you know, central banks:
“We are all used to using the word ‘cycle’;
we’re all used to looking at historical charts and graphs and equations and
relationships. The reality is that maybe the word ‘cycle’ is no longer
even relevant, given that we have so much unconventional central-bank
involvement. This is not a normal cycle just left to itself to run. It is
continually fiddled with by these central-bank injections”.
Welcome to the
theater of the absurd.
It’s all good:
See Chart:
Economic
Growth Trends
Central bankers who have
failed for 10 years to reach their self stated inflation objectives and utterly
failed to even embark on a path to policy normalization will fix it all.
And so the world
economic structure remain entirely dependent on ever more expansion:
See Chart:
Total
World Debt
Let’s not
stop here, let’s continue on that path forever, consequence free:
Read this statement:
Welcome to the
theater of the absurd.
In last week’s brief I
mentioned: “Favoring bulls in
April is, generally speaking, positive seasonality especially in the early part
of the month”.
Markets, greatly
spurred on by overnight China deal rumors kept running from one open gap to the
next. 7 consecutive gap ups now, with 3 unfilled gaps since just March 29. This
coming week buybacks will be largely in their blackout window and all eyes will
be on earnings, starting with bank earnings later in the week. But fear not, there will also be at least 7 Fed speakers this
week. After all the ever dovish message must be reinforced over and over again.
…
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-07/welcome-theater-absurd-most-jawboned-market-history
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Banks will be transparent
went people Front rule the Econ: with Democ-Socialism
Just
imagine: a bank whereexecutive compensation, and not taxpayer
funds, is used for a bailout...
…
[[ The intention is to
give regional Corp Banks total control of decentralized US. This will create
the anarchist chaos of killing the Central FED to benefit some billionaires who
already control bank-corp in different
regions. It is much better to transfer the power to SOEs (State Own Enterprises
) ruled by Democ-Socialistist & productive investors. That creates a
balance between Capital & Labor. It will keep market competition among
productive Investors (not WS especulators) & give them political power in
the rule of State along with the power of working classes (50/50) .. that will
create the transition to Democratic Socialism and the balance of power between
Capital & Labor. Neoliberalism is already obsolete.. keep it will damage
USA & future of our people ]].
….
====
Los grandes
especuladores perdieron la brújula: no saben dónde están ni adonde van
"It’s
misguided to assume that the profits recession has magically ended, and I see
an increasing chance that it turns into an economic one if companies decide
they want to protect profits by cutting labor, capex and inventory."
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What is
concerning is the rather cavalier
attitude the mainstream media takes about bear markets... “Sure, a
correction will eventually come, but that is just part of the deal.”
Experience Is The
Only Cure
Last
week, we discussed the inversion of 50% of the 10-yield curves that we
track. To wit:
“This quad-panel chart below shows the 4-previous periods where 50% of
10-different yield curves were inverted. I have drawn a horizontal red dashed
line from the first point where 50% of the 10-yield curves we track inverted. I
have also denoted the point where you should have sold and the subsequent low.”
See Charts:
“As you can see, in every case, the market did rally a bit after the
initial reversion. However, had you reduced your equity-related risk, not only
did you bypass a lot of market volatility (which would have led to investor
mistakes anyway) but ended up better off than those trying to just ride it
out.”
But that was so last week.
The bulls
were quick to note that bond yields reversed their inversion this week, so the
yield curve was wrong.
Uhm…not so fast, as we noted for our RIA PRO subscribers
last week:
“The big move two weeks ago was in Bonds. If you have been following
our recommendations of adding bonds to portfolios over the last 13-months, this
portion of the portfolio has performed well in offsetting market volatility. As
noted previously, intermediate duration bonds remain on a buy signal after
increasing exposure last month. However, they are now extremely overbought, so
look for a pullback that holds 2.50% on the 10-year Treasury to increase
exposure.”
I have UNLOCKED our weekly Major Market Review where
I stated;
(If you haven’t
tried out RIA PRO you are missing a lot of great stuff – Try it FREE for 30-days.)
See
Charts:
- While resistance remains from $122 to $124, the breakout is bullish for bonds.
- However, bonds are now EXTREMELY overbought. Look for a pullback to previous resistance which holds to add to exposures.
- Strong support at the 720-dma (2-years) (green dashed line) which is currently $118.
- Short-Term Positioning: Bullish
- Last Week: Hold positions
- This Week: Trim 1/4 of position just to take profits.
- Stop-loss adjusted to $121
- Long-Term Positioning: Bullish
As noted, we
correctly predicted the pullback in rates this past week because of
the extreme overbought condition which existed previously.
However, a
TECHNICAL reversion is not the same thing as a statement on the economic
recovery. The rotation between bonds and equities this
past week does NOT represent a false signal by rates that economic growth is
set rebound. As with all things, the trend of the data
is far more important than a specific data point and currently the “trend” of yields is lower…not higher.
Furthermore,
while the 10-year yield did pick up, 50% of the yields tracked still remain
inverted as of Friday.
See Charts:
However, let’s review the important points which HAVE NOT changed:
- The Fed isn’t hiking rates, but they aren’t reducing them either. (In fact, two Fed officials came out this week stating the Fed is likely to hike rates at least once in 2019 and again in 2020.)
- The Fed isn’t reducing their balance sheet any more after September, but they aren’t increasing it either.
- Economic growth outside of China remains weak
- Employment growth is slowing.
- There is no massive disaster currently to spur a surge in government spending and reconstruction.
- There isn’t another stimulus package like tax cuts to fuel a boost in corporate earnings
- With the deficit already pushing $1 Trillion, there will only be an incremental boost from additional deficit spending this year.
- Unfortunately, it is also just a function of time until a recession occurs.
As my dad use to tell me growing up:
“The only permanent cure of ignorance, is
experience.”
There Is A Decent
Probability You Have Never Seen A Bear Market
There is a sizable contingent of investors, and advisors,
today who have never been through a real bear market. After a decade long
bull-market cycle, which only seems to go up, you can certainly understand why
mainstream analysis continues to believe the markets can only go higher.
What is concerning is the rather cavalier attitude the
mainstream media takes about bear markets.
“Sure, a correction will eventually come, but
that is just part of the deal.”
What gets lost during these bullish cycles, and is found in
the most brutal of fashions, is the devastation caused to financial wealth
during the inevitable decline.
Let’s look at the S&P 500 inflation-adjusted total return
index in a different manner. The first chart shows all of the measurement
lines for all the previous bull and bear markets with the number of years
required to get back to even.
See Chart:
Real S&P 500 Total Returns
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/SP-500-Real-Total-Return-010919_0.png?itok=K9r2nCW4
What you should notice is that in many cases bear markets
wiped out essentially a substantial portion, if not all, of the previous bull
market advance. This is shown more clearly when we look at a chart of bull and
bear markets in terms of points.
See Chart:
Cumulative
Bulls & Bear Markets Points
Whether or
not the current distribution phase is complete, there are many signs suggesting
the current Wyckoff cycle may be entering its final stage of completion.
Let me remind you of
something Ben Graham said back in 1959:
“‘The more it changes, the more it’s the same
thing.’ I have always thought this motto applied to the stock market better
than anywhere else. Now the really important part of the proverb is the phrase,
‘the more it changes.’
The economic world has changed radically and
will change even more. Most people think now that the essential nature of the
stock market has been undergoing a corresponding change. But if my
cliché is sound, then the stock market will continue to be
essentially what it always was in the past, a
place where a big bull market is inevitably followed by a big bear market.
In other words, a place where today’s
free lunches are paid for doubly tomorrow. In the light of recent experience, I think the present level of the stock market is an extremely
dangerous one.”
He is right, of
course, things are little different now than they were then.
For every “bull market” there MUST
be a “bear market.”
The sell-off last
year, which amazingly enough has already been forgotten, should have been a
wake-up call to just how quickly things can change and how damaging they can
be.
There is
no difference between a 100% gain and a 50% loss.
(For the mathematically challenged: If the
market rises from 1000 to 2000 it is a 100% gain. A fall from 2000 to 1000 is a
50% loss. Net return is 0%)
Understanding
that investment returns are driven by actual dollar losses, and not
percentages, is important in the comprehension of how devastating
corrections can be on your financial outcome. So, before sticking your head in the sand and ignoring market risk
based on an article touting “long-term investing always
wins,” there is a huge difference between just making money and
actually reaching your financial goals.
But
experience will cure all of that.
…
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"In
the late 1990s, it was the carrot. In this cycle, it’s been the stick.
Different paths, but each has led to similarly precarious portfolio bets."
Ever since tumbling into a bear market in the fourth quarter
of 2018, the Nasdaq has exploded higher, surging more than 30% since Christmas,
trading just shy of all time highs and nobody on Wall
Street can explain why...
See Chart: Nasdaq Composite
Looking at the above, one might expect tech companies to
report blockbuster result in Q1. They will do the opposite - in fact, software
and electronics makers are expected to report an 8.7%
plunge in Q1 profit, which would
mark the worst income decline since 2009.
See Chart: Blinded by Love
Instead of stopping investors, investors are rushing back to
an industry that was the market’s favorite as recently as last summer. At 4.4x
sales according to Bloomberg, tech stocks trade at a multiple that is twice as
high as the rest of the market. That’s close to the highest premium since 2000.
See Chart: Relative value
Or perhaps not: analysts don’t see any quick rebound in tech
profits, projecting essentially flat sales through the third quarter of 2019.
Reflecting the bleak outlook, price
targets for tech stocks point to just 2% gain over the next 12 to 18 months: "that rate of expected returns trails all other S&P
500 industries except for utilities."
See Chart: Limited upside
However, that may be a two-edged sword because once
companies start rolling out their financial reports, investors will focus on
whether all the positive developments translate into gains for individual
businesses.
Doug Ramsey, the firm’s chief investment officer said:
“In the late 1990s, it was the carrot. In this cycle, it’s been the
stick,” Ramsey said. “Different paths, but each has led to similarly precarious
portfolio bets.”
If he is right, the recent 30% surge in the Nasdaq may prove
to be the biggest bear trap in recent history:
"it’s misguided to assume that the profits recession has magically ended,
and I see an increasing chance that it turns into an economic one if companies
decide they want to protect profits by cutting labor, capex and inventory.
Perhaps the Fed understands this better than investors, who may be merely
experiencing a serious bout of FOMO."
…
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
"Parts of the culture areborderline
insane..."
====
Top-Down REV is OK to trump.. don’t kill him.. just jell it
in case need it 4 years later
Trump needs to recognize he is a modern version of Shakespeare’s King
Henry IV, a monarch who can never afford to rest...The Deep State
will really go after him now that it's supposed Soft Coup plot has failed...
====
We waste money: anything intelligent will be better than
parasite-cucus we have today
“The power to decide over life
and death should never be taken out of human hands and given to
machines,”
====
"Nor
should they."
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Inspiration sets in...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"...They are so worried, they arewilling to experiment with monetary policy again in order to
prevent the crash that could make them
this generation’s Herbert Hoover.”
====
The last time China resumed its
gold purchases, was just three months before China's August 2015 yuan
devaluation, which also unleashed a period of dramatic yuan volatility and
Chinese economic weakness.
====
Assassination business will dump our leadership worldwide..
our embassies will pay
“We need a change of course at
the Bank of Italy if we think about what happened in the last
years...The gold belongs to the
Italians, not to the bankers...”
====
"That
would basically signal to me that, again, we are at the end of the world rather
than things are getting better."
====
Top-Down REV is OK to T.. don’t him, jus jail him.. we may
need him in 2024 in Deep-St
Trump needs to recognize he is a modern version of Shakespeare’s King
Henry IV, a monarch who can never afford to rest...The Deep State
will really go after him now that it's supposed Soft Coup plot has failed...
====
USD is been dumped worldwide.. Get ready for new SDR -backed
by gold- & new IMF
"The
US economy, along with the rest of the world, enters a slowdown; the Fed and
other policy makers attempt to reflate the global economy by easing monetary
policies." [[ This failed
too ]]
See graph:
[[ USD
failed because it promotes neoliberal terrorism, backed by US military. More
than ever we socialism based on SOEs & Peoples Front rule: Dem-Socialis]]
Daya believes the global economic cycle suggests "one should consider a general weakening bias when dealing
with EM currencies."
The above framework is also useful in explaining the market
"alligator jaws" which have gaped wide open and prompted Goldman's
client to freak out (as we discussed
last week)..…
See Chart:
S&P 500 vs 10Y Yield
The chart above, which shows a sharp drop in 10Y TSY yields
coupled with a surge in the S&P, confirms Nedbank's thesis that the USD has
gotten stronger in recent weeks as the global economic outlook continues to
deteriorate, and that stocks are only rising on expectations that said
deterioration will be so bad it will eventually force the Fed to either cut
rates, or as even president Trump now demands, launch QE4 something the bond
market is also increasingly banking on with the added kicker that deflation is
making a comeback.
And while bonds don't buy it, the worst possible outcome for
stocks would be if the dollar moves from point c to point b on the
"smile", because while that would telegraph a return in global
economic strength, it would also suggest that the US (and/or global) economy is
strong enough and that the Fed will no longer be needed to ease in the coming
months, forcing a sharp repricing in the
"jaws" shown above, as stocks slide and yields jump. Which
incidentally may be the best way to play the
"dollar smile": by doing the reverse of what risk-parity funds -
which just had their best quarter in years...
See Chart:
... are doing, and shorting bond bonds and stocks, expecting
a convergence in the trades above, especially since as Bank of America
noted last week, "history suggests such strong simultaneous
performance across asset classes cannot be sustained in the coming
quarter." In fact, in 8 out of 9 past periods
since 1972 of strong risk parity performance, "subsequent performance was
at or below median levels with an even stronger tendency to mean-revert post
the global financial crisis."
….
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Bring
troops home.. no queda otra que retirar nuestras tropas worldwide
"The
security realities on the ground in Libya are growing increasingly complex and unpredictable."
====
Make no mistake, citing the Monroe Doctrine is little more than a plausible excuse to get rid of the Venezuelan
government, which is legitimate, like it or not...
Because there is a presidential election coming up next
year, the DonaldTrump
Administration appears to be looking for a country that it can attack and
destroy in order to prove its toughness and willingness to go all
the way in support of alleged American interests.
But there are a couple of problems with that thinking.
The first is that an
opponent who can resist will sometimes balk and create a continuing problem for
the United States, which has a demonstrated inability to start and end wars in
any coherent fashion.
The second problem is
that there are only a few actual casus belli situations under
international law that permit a country to attack another preemptively, and
they are usually limited to actual imminent threats.
The Monroe Doctrine
of 1823 and the Roosevelt Corollary of 1904 de facto established the
United States as the hegemon-presumptive for the entire
Western Hemisphere, stretching from the Arctic Circle in the north to Patagonia
in the south.
John Bolton has been
the leader in promoting
the Monroe Doctrine as justification for
Washington’s interference in Venezuela’s politics, apparently only dimly aware that the Doctrine, which opposed any attempts by
European powers to establish new colonies in the Western Hemisphere, was
only in effect for twenty-two years when the United States itself annexed Texas
and then went to war with Mexico in the following year.
…
Read full
article at:
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IN CASE YOU MISSED:
...turning it into a true global currency
would yield several benefits for the global economy and the international
monetary system.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
====
SHOWS RT
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
VIENTO SUR
Adonde
va el capital español? Experiencias para dibujar otro
mundo Maria y Lorena
N Zelanda: El retorno de las huelgas
Ross Webb
===
RT EN
ESPAÑOL
- Las cinco grandes derrotas d intereses financieros USA en el extranjero
- RU: tropas US cooperan con terroristas en la zona de Al-Tanf en Siria
- 'Década del Atlántico': Boliv busca salida al mar tras fallo desfav de La Haya
- Renuncia la secretaria de Seguridad Nacional de USA
- 230.000 dólares pagara exagente de la CIA que espiaba para China
- "Lamentarán esta acción idiota": Irán vs. USA que su Ejército com terrorista
- "Como en Crimea": El canal alemán ZDF reporta 'invasión' de Estonia por RU
- US: Podría tomar hasta 2 años identificar a niños migr separad de sus padres
- "Tengo la conciencia tranquila, nada encontraron para incriminarme": Lula
- Irán insta a Irak a expulsar "lo antes posible" a las tropas de EE.UU.
- Keiser Report Un viaje por el universo de las inversiones
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described by Iranian observers..
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