Nueva Democracia: septiembre 2014

lunes, 29 de septiembre de 2014

NUEVA RECESSION MUNDIAL ACECHA

New Global Crisis Imminent Due To “Poisonous Combination Of Record Debt And Slowing Growth", CEPR Report Warns

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2014 - 07:52

"Deleveraging? What Deleveraging?"

No, that's not the title of a Zero Hedge article from 2011, 2012, 2013 and so on (because we have written on the concept of global "deleveraging" simply because there has been none).

It is, however, the title of the 16th Geneva Report on the world economy, released this morning by the Center for Economic Policy Research, which merely confirms, once again, everything we have said, namely that while the Fed's liquidity injections have boosted the stock market, everyone else has been levering up as much as possible, with corporations once again in debt to record levels using easy debt proceeds to buy-back their own stock (and push their equity-linked exec comp into the stratosphere), while consumers have loaded up on term debt, mostly in the form of student loans, to pay for their increasingly unaffordable lifestyle (and certainly not for tuition or textbooks), while defaulting, not deleveraging, on mortgages. That's what we call it.

The Geneva Report has far harsher words.

Here is an excerpt via the FT:

A “poisonous combination” of record debt and slowing growth suggest the global economy could be heading for another crisis, a hard-hitting report will warn on Monday. It warns of a “poisonous combination of high and rising global debt and slowing nominal GDP [gross domestic product], driven by both slowing real growth and falling inflation”.

The total burden of world debt, private and public, has risen from 160 per cent of national income in 2001 to almost 200 per cent after the crisis struck in 2009 and 215 per cent in 2013.

“Contrary to widely held beliefs, the world has not yet begun to delever and the global debt to GDP ratio is still growing, breaking new highs,” the report said.

Luigi Buttiglione, one of the report’s authors and head of global strategy at hedge fund Brevan Howard, said:

“Over my career I have seen many so-called miracle economies – Italy in the 1960s, Japan, the Asian tigers, Ireland, Spain and now perhaps China – and they all ended after a build-up of debt.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-29/new-global-crisis-imminent-due-%E2%80%9Cpoisonous-combination-record-debt-and-slowing-growth

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/28/2014

"I should be clear that market peaks often go through several months of top formation, so the near-term remains uncertain. Still, it has become urgent for investors to carefully examine all risk exposures. When extreme valuations on historically reliable measures, lopsided bullishness, and compressed risk premiums are joined by deteriorating market internals, widening credit spreads, and a breakdown in trend uniformity, it’s advisable to make certain that the long position you have is the long position you want over the remainder of the market cycle. As conditions stand, we currently observe the ingredients of a market crash."

By John Hussman. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-28/ingredients-market-crash-john-hussman-explains-why-take-concerns-permabear-seriously

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US INEQUALITY: LESS CASH EVERY HOUR, EXCEPT FOR THE RICH

THE US IS NOW 50% MORE UNEQUAL THAN ANCIENT ROME (And That Includes Slaves)

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2014

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-29/us-now-50-more-unequal-ancient-rome-and-includes-slaves

INTRODUCTION by Tyler Durden

As we previously noted, only the highest income earners have seen any gains in compensation since the crisis began around 2007 to the current 'recovery' tops. It is perhaps not entirely surprising then that, the total income controlled by the Top 1% is drastically above that of the slave-included times of Ancient Rome and as high as the peak in the roaring 20s. "The greatest irony is that the President is railing against inequality as one of the most important problems of the day, despite the fact that his policies are squeezing the middle class and causing the Fed – with the President’s encouragement – to engage in the radical monetary policy, which is exacerbating inequality. This simple truth cannot be repeated often enough."

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Current inequality is almost 50% worse than in Ancient Rome and as large as the end of the roaring 20s...

See IMAGE INCOME CONTROLLED BY THE TOP 1%

Source: @ConradHackett

Which is hardly surprising given that since 2007, incomes have only risen for highest wage-earners...

We leave it to the following 139 words by Elliott's Paul Singer to conclude - which in two short paragraphs explains everything one needs to know about America's record class inequality, including precisely who is the man responsible:

Inequality in the U.S. today is near its historical highs, largely because the Federal Reserve’s policies have succeeded in achieving their aim: namely, higher asset prices (especially the prices of stocks, bonds and high-end real estate), which are generally owned by taxpayers in the upper-income brackets. The Fed is doing all the work, because the President’s policies are growth-suppressive. In the absence of the Fed’s moneyprinting and ZIRP, the economy would either be softer or actually in a new recession.

The greatest irony is that the President is railing against inequality as one of the most important problems of the day, despite the fact that his policies are squeezing the middle class and causing the Fed – with the President’s encouragement – to engage in the radical monetary policy, which is exacerbating inequality. This simple truth cannot be repeated often enough.

Source:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-29/us-now-50-more-unequal-ancient-rome-and-includes-slaves

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