Nueva Democracia: 0CT 30 20 ND SIT EC y POL

0CT 30 20 ND SIT EC y POL

ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/9MIli.jpg?itok=Da1_xwQA

Source:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-accelerates-vaccine-trials-us-reports-nearly-90k-new-covid-19-cases-latest-record

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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

SHOCKTOBER: STOCKS SUFFER WORST PRE-ELECTION PLUNGE IN HISTORY

The Hunt for a Red October is over... must be the Russians...

Global stocks suffered their worst week since March as it appears the constant liquidity pukage is losing its impact...

See Chart:

Global Liquidity proxy vs MSCI world stocks

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA7D8.jpg?itok=Y2yy_OhR

And US stocks (down 6-7% across the board) also saw their biggest weekly drawdowns in 7 months...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-30_13-00-05.jpg?itok=IS8pzdsB

In fact, as Bloomberg notes, the second half of October - essentially since earnings reports began to flood in - the S&P 500 is down 5%. That is the worst performance for the final two weeks of the month of October since 1987's 10.9% plunge - a year that certainly had other extenuating circumstances to account for such a disastrous performance in the back-half of the month. While it bears little resemblance to this year’s market context, know that in 1987 equities did not bounce back by the end of that year.

See Chart:

S&P 1987 & Now

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA381.jpg?itok=qnlFzg-M

Additionally, the S&P just suffered its biggest-ever loss in the week before a US presidential election...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-30_10-04-33.jpg?itok=CubYUjje

But we note that the S&P was down 9 straight days into 2016 election... will the pattern repeat this time?

See Chart:

S&P

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6C57_0.jpg?itok=KgNBoiLC

This was also the worst week for any balanced portfolio as aggregate stock and bond returns were the worst since March...

See Chart:

Stock + Bond weekly return (%)

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmCFEB.jpg?itok=2ikj_vg1

Stocks were also down for the 2nd straight month (Dow was the laggard with it's worst month since March) leaving the S&P barely holding green YTD. Small Caps bucked the trend with a modest 1.5% gain on the month...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-30_11-53-03.jpg?itok=sKcO_fiI

The Dow and the Nasdaq are both in correction, down 10% or more from their recent highs.

All the US majors are at critical technical levels (Dow at 200DMA, S&P and Nasdaq < 100DMA, Russell ~100DMA)

See Charts:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-30_12-40-19.jpg?itok=p4PrwGYr

Russell 2000 dramatically outperformed Nasdaq for the second straight month...

See Chart:

Russell 2000 vs Nasdaq 100

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm7CC1.jpg?itok=hWs3lAeI

FANG Stocks ended down for the second month in a row...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm55E3.jpg?itok=8IU6RIX0

AAPL has slumped into a bear market from its early September highs...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6BB1.jpg?itok=FVZ7Fq6x

Bank stocks ended unch on the month...

See Chart:

S&P Banks sector

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm9BE3.jpg?itok=EqUuQWrl

VIX jumped almost 6 vols on the week - its biggest rise in vol since March...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-30_12-09-43.jpg?itok=vCg0MjDj

And the VIX curve is now in full backwardation (with the forward curve similar to how it was a month ago but the spike in front-month vol must have crushed any vol carry traders)...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm7665.jpg?itok=Pa-k-GOG

Despite gains this week, the Dollar was lower on the month (after September's big surge) for the 6th month lower in the last 7...

See Chart:

Bloomberg Dollar Index

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm80DF.jpg?itok=F1dA2DqP

Finally, just on thing to think... "mother's milk" appears to have left the building

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm39C2.jpg?itok=-XVOGRMR

This could never happen again, right?

See Chart:

Dow 1930 and NOW

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmEAB2.jpg?itok=uO7rvYdC

Oh, and don't panic!! The "Casedemic" will be over soon...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3877.jpg?itok=pNQPWe1H

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shocktober-stocks-suffer-worst-pre-election-plunge-history

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"CAPITALISM" IS NO LONGER ATTRACTIVE TO CAPITALISTS

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

This "capitalism" is only attractive to parasites, predators, kleptocrats, legalized looters, embezzlers, fraudsters and all those insiders whose palms get greased along the way...

Back of the envelope definition of classical capitalism:

1. Transparency in markets, including pricing, information on quality and reliability of products, sellers and buyers, and of rules of conduct and rights governing all participants;

2. Risk is tightly bound to reward, i.e. everyone has skin in the game, those who lose are forced to absorb the entire loss.

3. Open competition, i.e. no monopolies or cartels limiting supply or setting prices;

4. Free flow of capital and labor;

5. Everyone pays the same rates of taxes, duties and fees on every transaction.

Needless to say, what is presented as "capitalism" in America today is not actually capitalism; it is monopoly-state-socialism for the wealthy…

In this, the winner take most, and like in casino , anything goes, the weaker players are ruthlessly stripmined and exploited and those enterprises without political protection are cannibalized by rapacious, predatory monopolies and cartels.

Transparency is an illusion. Quality has gone downhill across the board every day.

In American "capitalism," the name of the game is scale up with cheap debt supplied by the Federal Reserve, use the "Fed free money" to buy up any potential competitors and then start buying back your own shares, jacking your share price even as sales and profits stagnate. (Charts of Apple below).

See Chart 1:

Apple (AAPL): Price-to-sales ratio vs 3 years revenue growth

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/AAPL-price-sales10-20a.jpg?itok=LZ442Ir_

See Chart 2:

AAPL Shares Outstanding

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/AAPL-shares8-20a.jpg?itok=eFB3wrXF

Once you're too big to fail or jail, then you can gamble to your heart's content because all the winnings will be yours to keep and if you lose big, the Fed or the Treasury will step in and transfer the losses to the debt-serfs and tax donkeys.

Paraphrasing the late Immanuel Wallerstein, "Capitalism" is no longer attractive to capitalists. This "capitalism" is only attractive to parasites, predators, kleptocrats, legalized looters, embezzlers, fraudsters and all those insiders whose palms get greased along the way.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/capitalism-no-longer-attractive-capitalists

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WALL STREET BRACES FOR "TERRIFYING RISK" AND A 20% PLUNGE IN JUST A FEW DAYS

"Markets may be in for a very choppy ride on Nov. 4 and possibly for much longer if it becomes clear that the election will be contested."

As we first discussed over a month ago, with a likely unprecedented volume of mail-in ballots, prospects for volatility enduring post-election day have rarely been higher, and is in fact higher today than a month ago when concerns about post-election vol initially spiked.

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-30_0.jpg?itok=eWzPnYt_

To be sure, back in July we reported that according to Goldman's David Kostin, the biggest concerns expressed by its clients is that a contested election could drag on, resulting in little clarity for weeks if not months, in a rerun of the contested 2000 election between Al Gore and George W. Bush, when it took a Supreme Court challenge and 34 days for the winner to be decided.

This is what Goldman said then:

Health concerns and social distancing protocols suggest that more voters than ever will decide not to cast ballots at traditional polling stations on Election Day and instead vote by mail. In the case of a close election, it will take time to count – and invariably re-count – all the absentee and mail-in ballots. The deadline for each state to certify its result and finalize electors is December 8th (35 days after the election) or six days before the Electoral College convenes on December 14th (first Monday after the second Wednesday in December).

Echoing this, in early September, Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte wrote that the pricing of VIX futures with November and December expiries are likely too sanguine that there will be a quick and clear outcome of the elections. In fact, if indeed the election won't be resolved until mid-December (at the earliest), the kink needs to move by at least 2 months, presenting a major arbitrage opportunity. In retrospect, he was right.

According to Daniel Ahn, BNP Paribas chief U.S. economist, there is a "terrifying risk" that an unresolved election could put investors in "completely uncharted territory." Speaking to Bloomberg, Ahn said that "if there is a constitutional crisis, we believe that the loss of political credibility and standing of the United States as a stable country could threaten its status as a safe haven with unfathomable consequences for the economy and for markets."

So what kind of a drop are we talking? According to a Thursday note from Bank of America's Michelle Meyer and Savita Subramanian, stocks could slide as much as 20% if there’s a contested election. This means that as soon as Wednesday once it emerges if the election will not have a clear winner, we could see a bear market.

"A landslide victory for either Trump or Biden and rapid election conclusion would likely be welcomed by markets while a severely contested election could see risk-off and drive 10-year rates materially lower"...

See Chart:

US equity implications of elections scenarios

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/20%20drop%20crisis.jpg?itok=X1MuHz9-

.. and even though probability of a contested election has subsided (or perhaps, acceptance of a contested election has increased) VIX futures still remain elevated, clearly discounting risks of a contested election.

See Charts:

Left:The threat of a contested outcome has kept Nov VIX futures & Dec S&P vols bid

Right: Fear of a contested election have subsided (..) buy remains elevated

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Bofa%20contested.jpg?itok=SQneBWol

The flipside, of course, is that "if markets sell off violently and the economic data deteriorate, we could see Washington facilitate the passage of stimulus even in a highly contentious environment."

Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo chimed in too, warning that "markets may be in for a very choppy ride on Nov. 4 and possibly for much longer if it becomes clear that the election will be contested" adding that a disputed election could hurt bank stocks more than others, based on the three weeks after the disputed 2000 election, when banks shed 10% versus the broader market’s 5% drop, Mayo said.

Frederick Cannon, global director of research at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said in recent interview -phone interview-. “A loss of trust is good for gold and crypto,” Cannon said, although it we indeed have a bear market in a few days, the wholesale liquidation that follows will likely mean that everything is sold, as babies are thrown out not only with the bathwater but the bathtub itself.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-street-braces-terrifying-risk-and-20-plunge-just-few-days

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

TRUMP'S (64-DAY) POST-ELECTION ENDGAME (OR, CAN A CRIMINAL BE INAUGURATED PRESIDENT?)

The outrage of America’s awakening public is rising daily, with at least sixty-four plus days to go...

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BIDEN ADVISERS SOUND RED ALERT OVER BLACK, LATINO TURNOUT

Maybe they found out about that 'racial jungle' thing?

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Despite record early-vote turnout around the country, there are warning signs for Biden. In Arizona, two-thirds of Latino registered voters have not yet cast a ballot. In Florida, half of Latino and Black registered voters have not yet voted but more than half of White voters have cast ballots, according to data from Catalist, a Democratic data firm. In Pennsylvania, nearly 75% of registered Black voters have not yet voted, the data shows. -Bloomberg

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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

US & CHINA HOLD MILITARY TALKS TO DEESCALATE RATCHETING WAR RHETORIC

US sought to defuse rumors of an

impending drone attack on Chinese-claimed islands...

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US TRY to assure world press loyalty in case the attack on RU-CH-Iran starts

DID 'THE ECONOMIST' AID A CHINESE COMMUNIST INFLUENCE OPERATION?

It appears the CCP managed to influence The Economist’s purveyors of influence and did so not in one or two instances but for eight critical years..

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CENTRAL BANKS SELL GOLD FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 10 YEARS DUE TO JUST TWO COUNTRIES