0CT 2 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
Dear President Trump: I do hope you have a soon & complete recover
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
TECH TURMOILS AFTER 'POSITIVE' POTUS, JOBS JOLTS, AND SOFTBANK SQUEEZE
See Chart
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA84E.jpg?itok=Y-E7zNrL
Small Caps exploded higher this week (pumped-up 6 of last 7 days) and best week in 2 months as Nasdaq lagged (but all were higher on the week)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-02_12-25-13.jpg?itok=AxYR7OuI
It's not the economy or fundamentals, it's the stimulus handouts, stupid!
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-02%20%282%29.png?itok=LJncvnxW
Because, COVID or not, Jobs or not, Fiscal stimulus or not, Biden or not, you gotta look on the bright side of life, right?
Of course today's market action was Trump Virus fears dueling with Pelosi's false hopes for fiscal help...(but look at that divergence between Nasdaq and Small Caps at the open)...ugly close today too
See Chart:
Trump Covid positive vs. Pelosi ‘hopeful’
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-02_13-00-19.jpg?itok=KyANiwHN
Nasdaq underperformed Russell 2000 by the most since May today as we suspect market-makers stomped on the throat of Softbank's gamma-squeezers...
See Chart:
Nasadq 100 / Russell 2000
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm336D.jpg?itok=Yri9eSRN
And we note that Nasdaq VIX spiked hardest at the open and was the most aggressively bid today...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmF345.jpg?itok=8feKyyoV
Notably, Nasdaq spec shorts collapsed by 40% but the index only managed marginally positive gains on the week (was Softbank trying to ignite a short-squeeze?)...
See Chart:
Nasdaq 100 mini Non Commercial net specs
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-02%20%281%29.png?itok=79-6j7BZ
"Most Shorted" Stocks are up 6 days in a row (squeezed)
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm31FC.jpg?itok=WGdYgvEB
Some spurious comments from Pelosi on Airlines bailouts sparked a bid in that sector, but it faded somewhat as details were missing...
See Chart:
S&P Airline sector
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm505C.jpg?itok=31o7NvCg
FANG Stocks were lower today but up on the week...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3CAD.jpg?itok=sLSbuTGl
Treasury yields ended the week higher, driven by two rather notable spikes, seemingly sparked by stimulus optimism (and refused to unwind on reality)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6B75.jpg?itok=SFRLNcKx
UST 10Y Yields spiked up to 70bps and stalled again...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmB44F.jpg?itok=13pcwSkZ
The B-Dollar Index erased about half of last week's gains this week...
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmEAFF.jpg?itok=feJwmzLx
10 Y Real yields fell this week, helping send gold higher..
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmCCA1_0.jpg?itok=rfVmLrVa
WTI was clubbed like a baby seal this week but Silver surged...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3EA0.jpg?itok=9PEN2loZ
WTI ended with a $36 handle on the week, erasing all of the recent rebound gains...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-02_12-10-10.jpg?itok=IiHBaQaP
Finally, the 1930s analog remains in place...
See Chart:
Dow Then and Now
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA267.jpg?itok=JW6uIL1J
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SOURCE: www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-trounced-trump-goes-viral-pelosi-promises-pump-airlines
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THE ELECTION IS NOT THE BIGGEST Q4 RISK: ACCORDING TO ONE BANK, IT'S THIS
Why are markets lacking their usual mojo lately? Because it's been hard for policy makers to keep up with the sheer quantum of support unleashed earlier in the crisis.
The shocking news overnight that Trump now has covid, which has thrown the political and market analysis calculus for a loop. Overnight, Bloomberg's John Authers had some notable thoughts on what Trump's covid infection means for markets:
This is almost certainly negative news for the economy, because the chances of a significant relaxation in lockdown provisions in the U.S. have just been sharply reduced.
The chances for a fiscal stimulus deal may well just have increased.
The chance of some deliberate geopolitical "surprise" to change the subject from Covid-19 may also just have risen.
For stock markets, we can assume that volatility will rise and that defensive stocks (these days meaning the FANGs) will outperform
Perhaps the most interesting market to watch is the dollar.
According to BofA's Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett, the biggest threat to the market in Q4 is neither Trump's covid infection nor the imminent contested election.
Hartnett then points out two recent records, on one hand the new all-time high in the Nikkei 500, the new economy index, although not to be confused with the legacy Nikkei 225 which is still 40% from Dec ’89...
See Chart:
Japanese equities at all-time high
... at the same time as we get a new all-time low in the Treasury volatility index - the ill-named MOVE - despite the record $4TN in Treasury issuance in 2020, 25% federal deficit/GDP, 100% federal debt/GDP, all of which to Hartnett is "unambiguous Fed success."
See Chart:
US Treasury Volatility at all-time low
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/treasury%20vol%20all%20time%20low.jpg?itok=G5YfJb1J
So going back to Q4 which is now 2 trading days in, Hartnett first lays out his views for what happens next all else equal:
· SPX to retest & fail highs in Q4…high cash, fiscal stimulus, vaccine, lower HY spreads, stronger EPS…final capitulation into risk.
· "Topping process"…floor in IG spreads, volatility, yields...Wall St credit & equity markets have begun topping process.
· Banks & energy rally…HY spreads down, global EPS up, bond yields drift higher; banks & energy to be boosted by M&A given distressed valuations
See Chart:
Banks and Energy likely to be boosted by M&A
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/banks%20energy.jpg?itok=PZBiPg6i
And while BofA does not really stand out in its list of potentially bullish Q4 catalyst.. and Higher global EPS, with China new orders & Korean exports at the highest level since 2018, and US orders/inventory ratio at 10-year high...
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/korean%20exports.jpg?itok=AaIxlAJr
The first - as expected - was the upcoming election, with Hartnett noting that the odds of a Dem sweep are increasing, and social demand for more-and-more government intervention in labor market, guarantees US & global fiscal stimulus here to stay. But as he adds, the now assured contested election that delayed phase IV US fiscal stimulus will pressure state & local government finances(watch MUB) and commercial real estate (watch CMBS); any imminent and aggressive Fed liquidity injections on contested election would favor tech over cyclicals.
See Charts:
But it was the second key Q4 bear catalyst that was most remarkable, i.e., the fact that after $8.3 trillion in monetary injection, 183 rate cuts YTD, the pace of central bank injections via QE fading ($3.8tn in Q2, $2.4tn in Q3, $1.1tn in Q4).
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/new%20crisis.jpg?itok=FTXc6vMn
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/election-not-biggest-q4-risk-according-bofa-its
In short, the fact that central banks are slowing down their interventions dramatically means that the only thing that could spark a fresh burst higher in risk assets is, paradoxically, another major crisis which forces the Fed to intervene even more aggressively.
Luckily, if there is one thing the world does not have a shortage of right now, it is potential crisis powder kegs and it's only a matter of time before one or more explode.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/election-not-biggest-q4-risk-according-bofa-its
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
TRUMP HEADS TO WALTER REED MILITARY HOSPITAL AS "PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE"
He will be staying in a special suite allowing him to work from the hospital
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“If the local governments don’t step up the compliance, they will actually be in violation of the law and they can be fined.”
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This is also why I’m worry about WW3 effects on US
Over the last few days, a swarm of almost 600 earthquakes has shaken southern California, and a lot of people are becoming extremely concerned about what will happen next...
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WILL THE PANDEMIC-PANIC CARD WIN IN 2020?
In the long run, people have more to fear from politicians than from viruses
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TRUMP IMPEACHMENT WITNESS JOINS UPENN AS VISITING FELLOW
Vindman was the driving force behind the impeachment proceedings
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DOES TRUMP'S ILLNESS "BOOSTS HIS ELECTION CHANCES"?
"A combination of voter sympathy, turnout and an asymptomatic or mild virus outcome boosts Trump’s election chances (e.g. vindicating his strategy of opening by example)"
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OPIUM DREAMS
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LAWMAKERS ADMIT MASKS ARE ALL "POLITICAL THEATER"
“I will as well, just, I’m waiting so that we can do a little political theater”
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He forgot to say: “with lethal effects” (case Trump)
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DEMOCRATIC
AD COMPARES 2020 AMERICA TO NAZI GERMANY 
The video, titled “Hate doesn’t stop itself, it must be stopped,” features a split screen with footage of Trump rallies, and by its side footage of nazi rallies from the 1930s...
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US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEXPECTEDLY PLUNGES BELOW 8% AS 661K JOBS ADDED
And there it is: heading into the US election, the all important US unemployment rate will be below 8%
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Sad News: WW3 at portas: worse than T virus, or perhaps bad news comes together
NUCLEAR DOOMSDAY PLANES TAKE FLIGHT AS TRUMP CONTRACTS COVID
"...Stratcom wants them to be seen. "
Fox News "while military planes generally turn off their transponders in order to avoid being tracked, the two E-6Bs in the air early Friday morning had left theirs on, with the assumption being that their crews want to be seen."
Tim Hogan, an American open-source intelligence analyst, tweeted:
There's an E-6B Mercury off the east coast near DC. I looked because I would expect them to pop up if he tests positive. It's a message to the small group of adversaries with SLBMs and ICBMs.
See MAP 1
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/E6B%20EAST.jpg?itok=AZFxtGMe
Hogan said:
Here's another E6-B that just popped up visible on MLAT on the west coast. IMO Stratcom wants them to be seen.
See MAP 2
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/E6B%20WEST.jpg?itok=u6mO_dXZ
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nuclear-doomsday-planes-launch-trump-contracts-covid
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MIGRANT CARAVAN "BLOWS THROUGH GUATEMALAN BORDER" TOWARDS US
Will the migrant caravan arrive at the US southern border by the Nov. 3 U.S. presidential elections?
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NORD STREAM 2 NEARS COMPLETION AFTER CLEARING ANOTHER HURDLE
Denmark cleared on Thursday the final hurdle to Nord Stream 2 potentially starting operations in Danish waters, while the U.S. continues its attempt to stop the Russia-led natural gas pipeline project...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Trump to Stay at Military Hospital for ‘Next Few Days’ After COVID-19 Diagnosis
-Tokyo Seeks Eighth Record-High Defense Budget for F-35, Hypersonic Tech
-Pompeo Says Confident Croatia, European Countries Will Keep China Away From 5G Networks
-North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un Sends Message of Sympathy to President Trump
-Breonna Taylor Case Released Amid Federal Probe
-Trump Camp Failed to Notify Biden Officials About Potential COVID-19 Exposure
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THE REST FOR TOMORROW
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