Nueva Democracia: 0CT 1 20 ND SIT EC y POL

0CT 1 20 ND SIT EC y POL

ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

STIMULUS?

COPPER, CRUDE, CRYPTO, & CREDIT CLOBBERED AS STIMULUS HOPES FADE

"Stimulus On, Stimulus Off"...

That was the tale of the tape today as markets shrugged off various disappointing economic data and the algos just pumped and dumped on whatever keyword was selected from Pelosi, Meadows, or Mnuchin...From yesterday afternoon's stimulus optimism highs, The Dow is down and Nasdaq managing to hold some gains...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-01_12-48-57_0.jpg?itok=_BPqUA4A

Personal Incomes unexpectedly tumbled, Manufacturing surveys disappointed, and over 830,000 Americans filed for first time jobless claims last week, and Challenger job cuts screamed higher - probably nothing!

See Chart:

“Layoff” Story Count

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmEEA0_0.jpg?itok=gC6pcFxu

So layoffs... and stocks... are soaring?

But copper, crude, cryptos, and credit all suffered...

Extreme positioning and growth fears combined to crush Dr.Copper's economics PhD forecast...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-01_12-02-13.jpg?itok=7_e6nGUC

We suspect more than one of these extreme specs got a tap on the shoulder today...

See Chart:

Copper net non-commercial specs

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-01%20%283%29_0.png?itok=_WbzL2Q3

Crude oil was clubbed like a baby seal, back below $40...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-01_12-01-27.jpg?itok=4DLFylgS

And as goes oil, so goes energy stocks - dumping to fresh six-month lows today...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-01_12-22-52.jpg?itok=J88TMVRs

Credit markets refused to play along with equity's exuberance...

See Chart:

S&P vs HYG

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmD856.jpg?itok=uUCxO2Q3

Bonds were bid today, erasing overnight weakness...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm37F2.jpg?itok=-w2wSIaJ

The B-dollar index limped lower for the 4th straight day...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm5E94.jpg?itok=SwF4AXhC

While crude and copper were clobbered, PMs rallied...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA096.jpg?itok=nFjfD84_

Gold futures back above $1900...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-01_12-45-56.jpg?itok=XBOG18j4

Finally, there's this - Nasdaq bounced back up to the level of global central bank liquidity...

See Chart:

Nasdaq vs Global Central Bank Balance sheet

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm81E7.jpg?itok=ryVcSdD_

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/copper-crude-crypto-credit-all-crumble-stimulus-hopes-fade

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"DE-DOLLARISATION THEME IS INTACT": LATEST IMF RESERVE DATA SHOWS CONTINUED FLIGHT FROM DOLLAR, INTO GOLD

No currency stood out as having benefited from the process so far. Instead, many central banks had turned to Gold.

On Wednesday, the IMF released the latest Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) report for Q2 2020. It showed that while the Dollar share of global reserves had increased in Q1 2020, likely on a combination of valuation effects and safe-haven demand, trend reversed abruptly in Q2 as shown in the Goldman chart below.

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/dollar%20depreciation.jpg?itok=uhrRCec2

The contraction in dollar reserves is hardly new: prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, the Dollar share of allocated reserves had been trending lower over the past two years (chart below, left), but that trend was interrupted in Q1 2020. However, the market recovery in Q2 helped to reverse most of the increase in the Dollar’s share from earlier this year. At the same time, the share of Euro reserves rebounded somewhat in Q2.

See Charts:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/share%20of%20dollar%20reserves%20GS%201.jpg?itok=GKR-G8sA

Additionally, the share of Yen reserves declined both on a headline basis and after adjusting for FX valuation changes. Meanwhile, the share of CNY reserves continues to steadily but slowly increase in what may be the most ominous trend in global reserve flows.

See Charts:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/share%20of%20CNY.jpg?itok=hh0v-Cus

From the perspective of reserve holders, BofA calculates that total FX reserves rose to over $12 trillion as global central banks aggressively intervened in FX markets, with more than half of all allocated reserves in US currency. Indeed, most major countries experienced a rise in FX reserves through Q2, with the exception of Turkey which continues to bleed reserves in order to stabilize its currency

See Charts:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bofa%20fx%20reserves.jpg?itok=gaTYqzbG

Echoing the Goldman observations above, BofA also writes that "the de-dollarisation theme appears intact", adding that the share of US holdings has declined to 61.3%, slightly more than expected based on FX, bond and equity valuation changes. The next two charts show the divergence vs USD performance, and the theoretical evolution of USD share based on valuation changes since 2014.

See Charts:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/USD%20TWI.jpg?itok=3ptp_WcE

This divergence between the level of USD reserves and that of USD TWI is expected to persist, as the world is decoupling from the USD as the notional reference peg.

Curiously, according to the BofA FX strategists, a deep dive into reserve flows highlights that there was no currency stood out as having benefited from the process so far. Instead, many central banks had turned to Gold. However, it now also appears that the pace of Gold purchases was levellng off.

See Chart:

USD vs FIAT vs USD vs Gold

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-01_0.jpg?itok=J8chGnOk

So, against the backdrop of global yields heading towards zero, the question of what assets/currency central banks would buy next remained open. Some of BofA's observations:

· The outlook was becoming more balanced in terms of CB demand for EUR bonds. The yield differential vs USTs had reduced, and new supportive factors were emerging - notably the political stability provided by the EU recovery fund and the growth in EUR-denominated Green bonds, but

· The synchronized shift towards QE and further unconventional policy measures would likely focus reserve managers' attention on a wider spectrum of assets, and, in the absence of a viable alternative to the USD, we might be entering into a multi-polar reserve currency world, with currency dominance det

The IMF's Q2 COFER breakdown supports both theories:

· The build-up of reserves in Q2 was most significant in EUR, at c. $23bn. This has allowed a slight increase in the EUR share of FX reserves, even as valuation adjustments would have projected a stable share (Chart 7). But, this increase is still extremely marginal. As BofA puts it, "the evidence so far suggests that reserve managers do not currently see any of the above as ready-made single alternative to the USD (instead, what was observed is a small build-up in each currency, except the JPY)."

See Charts:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/5-7.jpg?itok=c8WsSt7f

The "other currencies" component has risen markedly. Q2 saw the largest build-up of reserves in RMB and "other currencies" since 2Q18 (Chart 6, and Chart 8). The IMF does not provide a breakdown of "other currencies" but as with CAD and AUD in 2012, it may not be long before another currency is individually reported.

It is likely that this will be an emerging market currency.

See Charts:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/6-8_0.jpg?itok=eYjaoSlV

One final point: while the accumulation of the Chinese yuan continues, it remains at a very muted pace and hardly a threat to the dollar's reserve status any time soon. Indeed, as BofA noted above, "the evidence so far suggests that reserve managers do not currently see any of the above as ready-made single alternative to the USD."

As shown in the chart below, foreign investors now account for 9.2% of outstanding Chinese government bonds. China will be included into the WGBI next October 2021, after China was awarded a maximum score of 2 for "bond market accessibility" (which is hilarious and is why foreign investors are in for a shock once the next default cycle hits China).

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/fx%20holdings.jpg?itok=mb2zO5W6

….

SOURCE https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/de-dollarisation-theme-intact-latest-imf-reserve-data-shows-continued-flight-dollar-gold

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AMERICANS BURN THROUGH A STAGGERING $724BN IN ANNUALIZED SAVINGS IN AUGUST AS STIMULUS FADES

At this rate - absent a new fiscal stimulus deal - personal savings will be back to pre-covid levels in 2-3 month at the most.

Here lies the problem: lower income coupled higher spending in a time when the vast majority of Americans were looking forward to more stimulus meant that US consumer rapidly burned through savings. According to the BEA, in August, the amount of annualized savings tumbled by $723 billion to $2.435 trillion, the lowest since March and far below the $6.4 trillion peak in annualized personal savings hit in April.

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/monthly%20change%20savings.jpg?itok=hFh_EEbv

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/americans-burn-through-staggering-724bn-annualized-savings-august-stimulus-fades

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STOCKS & BOND YIELDS SUDDENLY PLUNGE ON HOUSE STIMULUS HEADLINES

Confirming "no deal" today, headlines stating that a House vote on Democrats' stimulus deal is expected today, US equities and bond yields tumbled

The Dow is red while Nasdaq holds some gains for now...

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-01_11-03-24.jpg?itok=xlXGBmbi

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bond-yields-suddenly-plunge-house-stimulus-headlines

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

JIM QUINN: THE ONLY THING 'SYSTEMATIC' IS THE DESTRUCTION OF AMERICA, PART 2

"...the truth is, there is something terribly wrong with this country...Cruelty and injustice... intolerance and oppression... where once you had the freedom to object... you now have censors and systems of surveillance, coercing your conformity..."

The employees laid off by small businesses will be forced to beg for jobs at the mega-corps. This coordinated destruction of small businesses is a major step in our digression into a corporate fascist dystopian hellscape. This blatant war on the little guy has been lost with barely a whimper from the fearful masses.

This transfer of wealth from small business owners to the likes of Bezos and other mega-corps is small potatoes compared to the pillaging of the little guy by the Federal Reserve over the last century, and particularly over the last six months. The $3 trillion of debt created out of thin air since March and the ongoing $1 trillion per year have not benefited you or anyone you know.

See Chart:

Fed Balance Sheet

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/macrobond-1100x490.png?itok=Yvu3sd60

These trillions have been funneled directly to the vampire squid – Goldman Sachs and the rest of the Wall Street criminal cabal, along with billionaire hedge fund managers, and various connected Davos elite.

The Fed and the Davos elite depend upon the indoctrinated ignorance conveyed by government schooling to implement their relentless plundering of the people’s wealth.

Anyone living in the real world, not the fantasy model world of the Fed and Davos elite, knows they are being hammered by rising prices on everything they need to survive.

The massive inflation in stock prices since April has benefited the top .1%, while the unemployed and senior citizens have seen inflation in food, fuel, housing, medical care and used cars. These are the rates of inflation for a few things you might need since May, according to CNN:

Corn – 12%
Soybeans – 12%
Beef – 16%
Coffee – 27%
Sugar – 22%
Cocoa – 12%
Cotton – 12%
Unleaded Gas – 68%
Natural gas – 36%

Gasoline was priced low when we weren’t allowed to drive. As soon as people were allowed to go back to work, prices soared. With the poor struggling to get by, used car prices have soared by double digits since May. Home prices have continued their relentless increase, up 64% since 2012, pricing young families out of the market.

The Big Lie is the BLS reported inflation in medical care of less than 1%. Everyone knows that’s a lie. Medical premiums, co-pays, and deductibles have been rising at double digits for the last decade. We are being systematically destroyed by evil sociopaths in suits, pretending to be looking out for our best interests.

….

SOURCE:

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/jim-quinn-only-thing-systematic-destruction-america-part-2

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THE EMPIRE OF UNCERTAINTY

There are no roads out of the the Empire of Uncertainty nor are there any safe havens of absolute certainty within its shifting borders...

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

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INCREASING NUMBER OF AMERICANS BELIEVE VIOLENCE IS JUSTIFIED IF 'OTHER SIDE' WINS

"The events of this summer are especially worrying..."

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GALLUP FINDS MAJORITY OF AMERICANS BELIEVE TRUMP WILL WIN RE-ELECTION

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

· Trump's job approval is up from 42% earlier in September

· Except for approval on economy, issue approvals are below 50%

· 56% expect Trump will win the election; 40% think Biden will

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PETER SCHIFF WARNS OF "FOURTH QUARTER FIREWORKS"

"... the dollar is going to go down regardless of who the next president isand which party controls Congress. I mean, that should be abundantly clear based on the debate..."

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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

POPE REFUSES POMPEO MEETING, SUGGESTS PLOT TO DRAG VATICAN INTO US ELECTION

Pompeo blasts Vatican's record of 'compromise' with Chinese Communist government in letting Beijing select bishops

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TRUMP SLASHES CAP FOR REFUGEE ADMISSIONS TO 'RECORD LOW' 15,000

Trump suspended processing of refugees between March and July, and the pace hasn't exactly rebounded.

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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS

GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

-Trump Confirms His Top Adviser Hope Hicks Tests Positive for COVID-19