0CT 27 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
OUR BIZARRE ECONOMY 2.0 IS A SPENDING BASED ILLUSION
One lesson we have learned this year is we should not expect things to revert to normal anytime soon...
Every trillion dollars the Federal Reserve and American Government injects into the economy adds a massive $3,333 per man woman and child in America. Recently aid packages from Washington alone have put about three times that into the mix. The whopping ten thousand dollar bang dished out for each of us was bound to move the economic needle. Adding to this distortion is how it has enabled countries throughout the world to enact similar stimulus packages without lowering the value of their currencies in relation to the dollar.
Trade is another area where we have masked our pain, for years we have had a rocketing trade deficit and seen jobs off-shored in an effort to lower corporate cost. While this has kept inflation in check by reducing the cost of many consumer goods, it has also resulted in much of America's wealth being squandered while strengthening our rivals. This dovetails with the growth of "crony capitalism" an economic system in which businesses thrive not as a result of risk, but rather as a return on money amassed through a nexus between a business class and the political class.
See Chart:
The chart to the right recently appeared in a piece by David Stockman in which he states, the Opportunity Insights Economic Tracker shows that nearly 25% of small businesses in operation last January have still not re-opened and there has been little improvement in the trend since July 4th.
This all means that how strong the economy appears is often based on how you value its different facets. It is hard to deny that traditional book value makes sense in an economy composed of factories, farms, and shopping malls. What we must question is the value of things like intangibles like patents, licensing agreements, proprietary data, brand value, and network effects. We have seen the total value of corporate intangibles has risen to over $20 trillion from just 17% in 1975, these assets now represent a record 84% of all S&P assets.
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/intangible%20assets_0.jpg?itok=ax8-0pK8
It is easy to argue the Federal Reserve is now caught in a "LIQUIDITY TRAP." If interest rates do not remain low debt can not continue to grow but will implode as defaults soar causing the economy to stall out. One of the most striking aspects of our current situation is the Central Banks’ only remaining policy tool is more liquidity and claiming there is little risk of inflation. This is evident as day after day countries step up to the plate and reveal new stimulus plans. The problem is, cheap money tends to increase speculation and leverage as people discount risk, this also has the effect of elevating prices. This does not mean we have reached the end of this madness but it cannot go on without consequences.
A big issue is the CBO’s prediction long-term economic growth is set to fall below 2%. This compares to an inflation-adjusted economic linear growth trend of 3.2% from 1947 to 2008. Following the 2008 recession, the growth rate dropped to roughly 2.2%. This is problematic because instead of reducing outstanding debt problems, the Federal Reserve is providing policies that foster even greater levels of unproductive debt and leverage. These policies are also widening the wealth gap, increasing dependency of individuals on the government, and moving society towards socialism.
Many seasoned investors see we have entered the area of “peak insanity” and are in the kind of market that only emerges during credit bubbles. Thinking economic strength will flow from giving more money to small businesses that might otherwise lay-off redundant employees is just ridiculous and does little to keep these companies strong. We should not assume that “moral hazard” is simply an old fashioned theory that has outlived its usefulness. The potential to enter a self-fueling doom loop still exists. Confusing the economic stimulus and humanitarian social safety nets aimed at helping needy workers is not the same thing and as bailing out reckless companies and allowing them to muddle along. One lesson we have learned this year is we should not expect things to revert to normal anytime soon.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/our-bizarre-economy-20-spending-based-illusion
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HOW SYSTEMS COLLAPSE: REAPING WHAT WE'VE SHOWN
By Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, MUST READ!
The fuel tanks are almost empty and we're still 1,000 miles from land
See the Chart and read the comments in the source below:
See Chart
HOW SYSTEMS COLLAPSE
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/buffer-collapse5-18%20%281%29_2.png?itok=_CfredAr
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-systems-collapse-reaping-what-weve-sown
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BITCOIN OUTPERFORMS NASDAQ OVER LAST 12 MONTHS, BONDS BID AS DOLLAR SKIDS
Mixed bag in stocks today (mega-tech bid, rest of market offered) but Bitcoin grabbed the headlines as it overtook Nasdaq's performance in the last 12 months...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-27%20%281%29.png?itok=tJQhkDtv
Nasdaq outperformed and the machines tried desperately to get the S&P green on the day. Small Caps and The Dow lagged...(NOTE, everything slid into the close after Trump said “Your 401(k)s, down the tubes. Look how great our stock market - - had a little blip yesterday because Nancy Pelosi will not approve stimulus, that’s all,”)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-27_12-59-51.jpg?itok=nPCFCrM-
As we noted earlier, we have seen persistent "large lot" selling and "small lot" dip-buying...
See Chart:
ES Imbalance for lot sizes (100-500) as of 4pm
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image004%20%281%29_0.jpg?itok=yWEH_ntA
Will everyone follow each other's tracks down too?
Europe was ugly again today as lockdown threats escalated (no bounce)...
See Chart: https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6BB8.jpg?itok=kybBUo2s
YTD, CHINA (SHCOMP) still leads the US (Nasdaq is outperforming but S&P seems more appropriate) as Europe (DAX) dumps...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3AAA.jpg?itok=1GOtLebG
Nasdaq surged relative to Small Caps once again...
See Chart:
Nasdaq 100 vs Russell 2000
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-gold-jump-stocks-bond-yields-dollar-dump
Bank stocks sank again today...
See Chart:
S&P Bank Sector
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm9952.jpg?itok=MSiDwVvM
FANG stocks erased yesterday's losses...
See Chart:
Fang Stocks
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm2EAA.jpg?itok=n03HeMx4
VIX was higher on the day, signaling more pain to come for stocks...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm2C53.jpg?itok=F0_Dafkz
Bond yields fell for the 3rd day in a row with the curve flattening significantly (2Y -0.5bps, 30Y -11bps)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmCD4C.jpg?itok=0cWSmOFW
With UST 10Y Yield back to 76bps intraday..
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-gold-jump-stocks-bond-yields-dollar-dump
Real Yields tumbled back in line with gold today...
See Chart:
Spot Gold vs 10Y yield
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmE08F.jpg?itok=1ijevfsg
The B-dollar Index leaked lower today...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm35B7.jpg?itok=5Eg2-UJn
Oil prices rebounded from yesterday's weakness but WTI failed to get back to $40 ahead of tonight's API inventory data...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-27_11-53-02.jpg?itok=YftnxLm0
Finally, we note that implied correlation is on the rise suggesting investors are piling into protective macro overlays ahead of the election (as opposed to individual stock hedging), expecting a systemic re-rating of stocks...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6A49.jpg?itok=ZUVmib7H
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-gold-jump-stocks-bond-yields-dollar-dump
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
JPMORGAN ASKS "WHAT IF TRUMP WINS?"
"What would happen to markets if the US election surprises the consensus like in 2016 and Trump wins again?"
On Monday, we were amused to note that amid a relentless barrage of Wall Street "analysis" predicting a Blue Wave on Nov 3, or at least a Joe Biden landslide victory, none other than the largest US Bank came out with a jarring counter-narrative when JPMorgan head of global equity strategy Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, said that not only is a Blue Sweep not the best possible outcome - instead it "is expected to be mostly neutral in the short term as it would likely be accompanied by some immediate positive catalysts (i.e. larger fiscal stimulus / infrastructure) but also negative catalysts (i.e. rising corporate taxes)" - but that "an orderly Trump victory as the most favorable outcome for equities (upside to ~3,900)."
But why is the largest US bank suddenly uproot the meticulously crafted narrative that Trump, and the GOP, have has a snowball's chance in hell of winning any of the three major races on Nov 3?
Well, as Panigirtzoglou explains, "polls and betting odds are still pointing to a high probability of a Biden win or a Democratic sweep in next week’s US presidential election." Of course, this is similar if not identical to the backdrop four years ago when the probability of a Trump win was perceived to be rather low, in fact even lower than Trump's odds now.
See Chart:
Betting odds for Trump in 2020 vs 2016
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/predictit%20now%20vs%20then.jpg?itok=zhUMBNa0
Then there is the latest RealClearPolitics battleground polling average, which shows that Trump's average approval just hit its highest yet, with the president reportedly turning the critical Florida state in his favor, and is rapidly catching up in other "must win" states such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona.
See Chart:
Top Battlegrounds : Trump vs Biden
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/predictit%20battleground.jpg?itok=QAq__XDD
So, JPMorgan continues, what would happen to markets if the US election surprises the consensus like in 2016 and Trump wins again?
According to the JPM strategist, a simple way of answering this question is by looking at the pre-and post-2016 election pattern across asset classes, and consider where pledges from the candidates differ from 2016. This is shown in Figure 6 to Figure 23 across equities, rates, currencies and commodities.
Here are the main findings by looking at these charts:
For US and global equities, the market reaction favored US over non-US global equities. Given the betting odds and polls suggest that a Trump win would again be a surprise, there seems little reason not to expect a similar favoring of US vs. non-US equities. Among equity market sectors, the sectors that saw disproportionate gains relative to the rest of the index include financials and industrials, for both US and non-US equities. For the financials in the US, the reduced prospects for regulatory tightening could again see the sector gain in the event of a surprise Trump win. By contrast, those that lagged the broader index include consumer staples as well as tech.
For US and global equities, the market reaction favored US over non-US global equities. Given the betting odds and polls suggest that a Trump win would again be a surprise, there seems little reason not to expect a similar favoring of US vs. non-US equities. Among equity market sectors, the sectors that saw disproportionate gains relative to the rest of the index include financials and industrials, for both US and non-US equities. For the financials in the US, the reduced prospects for regulatory tightening could again see the sector gain in the event of a surprise Trump win. By contrast, those that lagged the broader index include consumer staples as well as tech.
See ChARTs :
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/JPM%20charts%201.jpg?itok=yJw1ODC2
Regionally, among global equities and FX Asian assets are likely to be sensitive to a continued Trump Presidency as it would likely mean further US/China conflict on trade, technology and investments. Figure 15 and Figure 16 show the performance of the Bloomberg JPM Asian Dollar Index (ADXY) as well as the relative performance of the MSCI Asia Free float index vs. the MSCI AC World. The 2016 election result saw a depreciation on the ADXY in the month after the election and an underperformance in Asian equities relative to the MSCI AC World index. A depreciation/ underperformance of a similar order of magnitude would not be unreasonable as markets price in a continued escalation in the US-China conflict
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/JPM%20rates%20trump.jpg?itok=ZDLI9kiB
What about rate markets? Here, it is less clear-cut how different market pricing ought to be under a Biden or Trump Presidency under a split Congress than under a ‘Democratic Sweep’ scenario given the prospect of a more modest further fiscal support package. A clear victory by either candidate could reduce uncertainty, by dispelling fears of a contested outcome, and hence term premia priced in longer-maturity yields.
As a result, while under a Trump victory there could be some pressure for further steepening and rise in 10y yields, it is less likely to be of a similar order of magnitude as in 2016 when markets began to price in prospects of significant deficit-financed tax cuts (Figure 17and Figure 18).
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/JPM%20rates%20trump.jpg?itok=ZDLI9kiB
What about Gold?
This time around, the prospect for a similar decline in gold prices appears to be more limited for similar reasons to why we see more limited upside for yields and the curve compared to 2016.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/JPM%20gold%20trump.jpg?itok=oJkaChbK
What about the dollar?
As the global recovery began to take hold after the sharp contraction in 1H20, the trade-weighted dollar gradually gave back its March gains and is currently close to its levels at the start of the year. The move in the trade weighted dollar in 2016 was mirrored by declines in both the euro and the yen vs. the dollar as well, and a market reaction to price in further US exceptionalism and trade conflicts could gain see a similar initial reaction.
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/JPM%20trade%20weighted.jpg?itok=YjTZO6_V
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-asks-what-if-trump-wins
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Post election violence is for sure.. not only in Texas
Soldiers expected on streets of Dallas,
Houston, Fort Worth, Austin & San Antonio...
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Why violence in Texas?
PROJECT VERITAS INFILTRATES TEXAS 'BALLOT CHASING' RING TARGETING SENIOR CITIZENS
"I can honestly say I'm bringing at least at least 7,000 votes to the polls."
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THE "WOKENESS" WARS COMING TO YOUR TOWN
Authored by Philip Giraldi, MUST READ!
America’s wealthiest county surrenders to Critical Race Theory twaddle
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THEY'RE GOING ALL-OUT TO STOP TRUMP DECLARING VICTORY
By Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,
Can you think of any other time in the history of the United States when measures have been taken in advance to try to prevent a presidential candidate from declaring victory on the night of the election?
“ILLEGITIMATE” said the mainstream media. MUST READ!
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Trump’ zombie-delusion: he got the socks over his shoes. Who finance this clown?
BIDEN 'ZOMBIE' CLIP GOES VIRAL AS TRUMP CAMPAIGN GAMBLES ON UNCONVENTIONAL ADS INTO ELECTION
Watch them while you still can...
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The circus election is bored: the clowns are stupid. ABSTENCION: best choice
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REP. ILHAN OMAR EXPECTS BIDEN TO PACK CABINET WITH 'PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS'
Some people controlled some presidents...
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Former Biden insider Tony Bobulinski - a registered Democrat who's donated to Democrats - just gave a smoking gun interview to Fox News' Tucker Carlson on Tuesday, where he described his dealings with the Biden family in their bid to do business with China.
Bobulinski says that "Joe Biden and his family is compromised," after describing dealings that included purchasing a portion of a Russian state-owned energy company.
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AS POMPEO & ESPER PUSH ANTI-CHINA MESSAGE IN INDIA, PLA VOWS "DEFEAT OF ATTEMPTS TO SEPARATE TAIWAN"
China blasts approved missile sales to Taiwan as a greater provocation than in the past...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Survey of American Voters Reveals Widespread DISTRUST in Elected Officials
-REP. ILHAN OMAR EXPECTS BIDEN TO PACK CABINET WITH 'PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATS'
- Azerbaijan Reports Armenian Shelling of Terter Region
- India to Witness Negative or Zero Percent Economic Growth This Year
- Anti-Police Riots Erupt in Brooklyn Over Shooting of Black Man by Officers in Philadelphia
- Police Report Widespread Looting Taking Place Amid Philadelphia Riots
- S. Korea Plans to Send Presidential Special Envoy to Moscow
- Trump 2020 Website Hacked, Campaign Now Working With Law Enforcement
- Tear Gas Deployed by Washington, DC, Police Amid Black Lives Matter Protests
- Michigan Judge Blocks State Direct Prohibiting Open Carry of Firearms at Polls
- Protesters Return to Streets in Phily Following Shooting of Black Man by Police
- Trump Pulls Some Florida Ads as Campaign Enters Final Week
- 'Not Above the Law': US Lawmakers Demand Probe Into DHS Agency’s Use of Warrantless Surveillance
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