Nueva Democracia: 0CT 17 20 ND SIT EC y POL

0CT 17 20 ND SIT EC y POL

ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

...it ends when the state’s fiat currency is finally worthless. It is an evolving crisis, not just a climactic event...

Authored by Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com,

Definition: Hyperinflation is the condition whereby monetary authorities accelerate the expansion of the quantity of money to the point where it proves impossible for them to regain control.

It ends when the state’s fiat currency is finally worthless. It is an evolving crisis, not just a climactic event.

The difference between inflation and hyperinflation cannot be distinguished by degree either.

Have a look at US M1, the quantity of narrow money in the American economy, shown in Figure 1.

See Chart:

US M1 $ Billions

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Graphic_25.png?itok=PxRsWglS

The progression of annualised monetary inflation from under 6% before the Lehman crisis, to 9.6% subsequently until March this year, and 65% in the thirty weeks since is clear from the chart. If the monetary authorities have the knowledge, the mandate, the authority, the ability and the desire to stop inflating the currency, we would not describe it as hyperinflation, instead deeming it to be no more than a brief period of exceptional inflation before a return to sound money policies.

THE CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGES IN RELATIVE PREFERENCES

Nominal GDP is not just the other side of the monetary equation. It is also total production, and the other side of total production is the sum of consumption and deferred consumption. The correct way to regard money is not through the monetary equation and the supposed role of velocity, but to look at nominal GDP as both the total of everyone’s income and profits, and the sum of their expenditures and net savings. Only then can we consider the impact of changes in the money quantity on prices.

Money is merely a form of intermediation between the production and consumption of goods. People hold a degree of personal monetary liquidity, which when money is stable does not vary by much overall. This liquidity must not be confused with savings, which being consumption deferred, are not primarily held for their liquidity but for anticipated returns. Personal liquidity is held in reserve for personal consumption.

THE FORM OF TODAY’S MONETARY COLLAPSE

The first thing to consider is the current relationship of the quantity of money to the economy. US dollar M3 money supply, the broadest definition of money, has increased along with US GDP: M3 stood at $18.327 trillion last July, while second quarter GDP was estimated at $19.52 trillion. The closeness of the relationship between these two figures is explained by the nominal GDP total being inflated by increases in the money quantity. The match is never perfect, because there is always some consumer expenditure which is subject to estimates, future revisions, or simply not captured by GDP. To these we can add statistical error. Furthermore, at the beginning of the inflation there would have been a base level for GDP when money was sound from which subsequent inflations occurred.

The degree of the dollar’s loss of purchasing power is deliberately understated in official statistics. Originally, the policy was to reduce the cost to US and other governments of indexation introduced following the 1970s decade of price inflation.

Figure 2 compares the cumulative increase in the general level of prices measured by the CPI, and the Chapwood index — comprised of “the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation”. The Chapwood price inflation numbers used in the chart are the arithmetic average of the fifty cities, the last data points being end-June 2020. Additionally, the growth of M3 money supply is included.

See Chart:

Cumulative Price inflation : 2010 to 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Screen_Shot_2020-10-15_at_1.48.40_PM.png?itok=4vXFapiP

Figure 3 further illustrates the ineffectiveness of monetary policy by expressing GDP in 2010 prices adjusted by the CPI (the state’s version of real GDP), by the Chapwood index and finally by M3 money supply.

See Chart:

US GDP deflated by US City CPI and City average inflation

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Screen_Shot_2020-10-15_at_1.49.00_PM.png?itok=39Tq_XJY

Meanwhile, the Fed announced unlimited monetary inflation on 23 March. Shortly after, China began to accelerate sales of dollars in favour of stockpiling commodities, exhibiting the change in behaviour we can expect from the wider American public when it collectively realises it is money going down and not the prices of everything rising. Did 23 March, following which China is reported to have started dumping dollars at an increased pace for commodities, mark the beginning of the final flight into goods?

It is certainly possible, in which case hyperinflation of the dollar and of most other paper currencies will likely end in a final, unexpected collapse in purchasing power in a matter of only a few months.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hyperinflation-here

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STOCK OPTIONS TRADERS ARE BACK AT THE SPECULATION

...traders (especially small ones) are (once again) speculating on long calls and paying high premiums to do so...

In the last few weeks stock market sentiment as expressed in options has come full circle. Back in August we were noting a rather amazing level of outright speculation in stock options, mostly by small traders that were buying short-dated out of the money calls on the FAAMGs (i.e. lottery ticket type options that have a small chance of big payouts and a large chance of a 100% loss). We flagged this as being particularly problematic since the probability of stock market gains is not great when indicators of extreme speculation are flashing red. Then, in September the Nasdaq 100 sold off by 14% and the S&P 500 lost 9%.

To give the audience a sense for the positioning in the options market, the first chart we’ll show is the put/call ratio. It’s simply the number of put options bought for every call. The lower it is the more traders are positioned aggressively long. Currently, it’s right back to the August lows.

See Chart;

CBOE Equity put / call ratio

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/pic1-1%20%281%29.jpg?itok=uKIFm2ej

In the next chart we show the volume of small trader call buying. After backing off a tad in September, the small traders are once again pushing extremes that have not been seen since 1999-2000.

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/pic2-1%20%281%29.jpg?itok=bUezk54C

Next, we show the premium small traders are paying for put options relative to calls. When people get jittery they pay up for puts relative to calls, pushing this indicator higher. When they are optimistic, the opposite is true. In this indicator we are still at the same level of extreme we were at back in August.

See Chart:

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/pic3-1%20%281%29.jpg?itok=-V2U4uJc

But, even though traders aren’t paying up for puts relative to calls, that doesn’t mean options are cheap. In fact, one important component of option prices is implied volatility. This higher it is, the more expensive the option since a higher implied volatility suggests higher chances large for movements in the underlying. Currently, implied vol is much less than it was back in March when the options market was pricing in doomsday. But, implied vol is still well above “normal”, meaning that options are expensive relatively to history.

See Chart”

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/pic4-1%20%281%29.jpg?itok=S8lKtJ3i

So, when we out all this together, we come to the conclusion that traders (especially small ones) are speculating on long calls and paying high premiums to do so.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-options-traders-are-back-speculation

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

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Mocking on US hypocrisy

RUSSIAN TRADE MINISTER CELEBRATES COLLAPSING RUBLE AS "AWESOME"

In a world of endless lies and constant hypocrisy, hearing at least one financial official ‘admit the truth’ that it is "awesome" to see one's currency collapse, is delightfully refreshing.

….

Yo si guardo la esperanza de que algún día tengamos buenas relaciones con RU-CHI. The US problem es que siempre se crea un rival para satisfacer la estúpida vanidad de que estamos mejor que él y si ese rival está realmente mejor que nosotros, inventamos mentiras en su contra y buscamos como destruirlo (caso China). A este colmo hemos llegado con Tramp. Y si la Corte Suprema no lo sanciona por dividir la nación para satisfacer estúpidas vanidades personales, es porque faltan reales jueces en el US. Con esta confianza dijo Trump que él se va a ir del país, lo dijo ya. En Perú, cuando esto ocurre, cuando se sabe ya que las mayorías no quieren a un lider, unos se van del país, y se nacionalizan en otro como ocurrió con el novelista Vargas Llosa que perdió las elecciones (la vanidad se esfuma, ya no puede producir nada y mueren en silencio). Otros se suicidan caso Alan Garcia. Trump no es un novelista ni un luchador consecuente por su partido, debió suicidarse como Alan Garcia, pero para eso se necesitan cojones y Tramp no los tiene. Fue y es una simple porquería (jugador de loterías con plata ajena). Si lo elegimos fue porque él era el mal menor frente a la corrupta y pedófila Hillary. Y el mal menor (Trump) hizo lo que se esperaba de esa corrupta: enriquecerse con el poder político. Trump tiene cuentas pendientes que pagar en el US: su gobierno asesino negros y latinos (a sus niños lo puso en una cárcel y luego desaparecieron). Se le debiera incautar o expropiar sus riquezas mal habidas y para pagar la compensación a las familias de los asesinados por su Gbno. Ojala ocurra. Ojala la grave crisis que vivimos cree un buen Juez. Ojala!

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BROWN UNIVERSITY RESEARCHER SAYS TRUMP SIGNS, AMERICAN FLAGS TO "SCARE" & "TRAUMATIZE" BLACK PEOPLE

A postdoctoral researcher at Brown University took to social media to explain that Black AirBnB guests may be traumatized by Trump signs.

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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

OIL SHORTS ON NOTICE AFTER RUSSIA, SAUDIS AGREE TO "COOPERATE CLOSELY" TO KEEP ENERGY MARKET STABLE

Russia and Saudi Arabia have been very patient with the low price of oil in the post-covid world. Perhaps their patience has run out.

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OUR TITANIC IS SINKING

Read the subtitles + contents in this analogy & think if you can save this monster

THE "TITANIC" ANALOGY YOU HAVEN'T HEARD: PASSIVELY ACCEPTING OBLIVION

Whether we realize it or not,

we're responding with passive acceptance of oblivion...

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

You've undoubtedly heard rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic as an analogy for the futility of approving policy tweaks to address systemic crises.

But there's a powerful analogy you haven't heard before.

On April 14, 1912, the liner Titanic, considered unsinkable due to its watertight compartments, struck a glancing blow against a massive iceberg on that moonless, weirdly calm night

The initial complacency of the passengers and crew after the collision is another source of analogies

The class structure of the era was enforced by the authorities--the ship's officers.

Rudimentary calculations by the ship's designer, who was on board to oversee the maiden voyage, revealed the truth to the officers: the ship would sink and there was no way to stop it.

What if the officers had boldly accepted the inevitability of the ship sinking early on and devised a plan to minimize the loss of life?

Would this hurried effort to save everyone on board have succeeded?

Rather than devote resources to maintaining the pretense of safety and order, what if the ship's leaders had focused their response around answering a simple question: what was needed for people to survive a freezing night once the lifeboats were filled and the ship sank?

Whether we realize it or not, we're responding with passive acceptance of oblivion.

….

SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/titanic-analogy-you-havent-heard-passively-accepting-oblivion

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RECESSIONS ARE A GOOD THING, LET THEM HAPPEN

That is a Big lie: Recession only bring huge money to big Corp & billonaires.

Hugo Adan

10/17/2020

But we must read them to know how they create the big monster & how it works

This is the best art I read on the neoliberal system that is collapsing now

It is a defense of big Corp & Billionaires: an insult to the labor or working classes

Pero no hay nada mejor que conocer bien al enemigo de clase y saber dónde golpear