0CT 16 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
Notice that many words has been adulterated by US fascism. Why? Election time
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
FOREIGNERS DUMP US TREASURYS IN AUGUST, CHINA'S HOLDINGS DROP TO ALMOST 4 YEAR LOW
That the Fed is buying every newly issued US government bond, the reality is that the US no longer needs foreign creditors: after all it has an activist Fed which monetized the deficit, and buys ever dollar in debt issued by the Treasury.
The Treasury’s latest TIC data report, published after the close and detailing August international capital flow activity, showed total foreign ownership of US Treasurys dropped by $13.8 billion From July's record $7.097 trillion to $7.083 trillion - the first month of selling since April - with Japan, China, UK, and Hong Kong, the biggest sellers.
See Chart:
Total Foreign Holding of TSYs
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/TSY%20holdings%20total.jpg?itok=WPsmLdHE
Before we get into the weeds, a big picture snapshot showed that in August, the most notable flows were as follows:
- Foreign selling of Long-Term treasuries: $33.1BN
- Foreign buying of Agency debt: $37.7BN
- Foreign buying of Corporate debt: $2.3BN
- Foreign buying of Equities: $26.6BN
As shown in the summary chart below, the $33.1BN TSY outflow was the biggest monthly selling of long-term Treasuries since the $36.7BN sold in May. The rest of the flows were generally in line historical trends.
See Chart:
Consolidated foreign transactions in Long Term US Assets
Taking a closer look at Treasuries, reveals that while private and other non-official holders sold $37.2BN, or the most since May's $46.7BN, foreign official institutions such as central banks, reserve managers and so on, actually bought US paper to the tune of $4.2BN, which is notable for an investor group that has bought US Treasurys in just 6 months since Jan 2017.
See Chart:
Monthly Change in TSY holding of foreign official institutions
Drilling further down, we find that China sold another $5.4BN (or merely remarked lower as a result of the higher rates in August), bringing its total to $1.068 trillion, the lowest since March 2017.
See Chart:
China Holding of US Treasuries
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/China%20holdings.jpg?itok=alHoE_tZ
A similar trend was observed in the Treasury holdings of the largest US foreign creditor Japan, which surpassed China as the biggest offshore holders of US paper in mid-2019, whose holdings of US paper also dropped from last month's record of $1.293 trillion by $14.6BN, the biggest drop since Sept 2019.
See Chart:
Japan Holding of US Treasuries
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Japan%20holdings%20Oct%202020.jpg?itok=fYftLRkf
That said, not everyone was selling, and among the more notable buyers we have Ireland (adding $4.5BN), Luxembourg (adding $4.1BN), and Saudi Arabia, which grew its TSY holdings by $5.4BN.
See Chart:
Saudi holding of US Treasuries
Yet while once upon a time analysts would look at such selling by foreigners with caution, now that the Fed is buying every newly issued US government bond, the reality is that the US no longer needs foreign creditors: after all it has an activist Fed which monetized the deficit, and buys ever dollar in debt issued by the Treasury.
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VIX & STOCKS RISE ON WEEK; BANKS PUKE AHEAD OF BLACK MONDAY ANNIVERSARY
Nothing to worry about... Monday will be the 33rd anniversary of the 1987 Black Monday collapse in stocks...
See Chart:
S&P 500 1987 and Now
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmF123_0.jpg?itok=nDuIhVjq
Now that would be an 'October Surprise'.
Excerpted from Art Cashin's reminisces of that day in 1987 (rings a lot of bells for 2020)
-The first two-thirds of 1987 on Wall Street was nothing short of spectacular... Fear seemed to disappear, and junior traders laughed at their cautious elders. The brash youngsters told each other to “buy strength” rather than sell it, as each buying wave was soon followed by another.
-On Wednesday, Oct. 14, there were widely discussed rumors of a new punitive tax on takeover profits.
[ZH: Worries over Biden's tax plan?]
Friday the 16th was an option expiration day... selling intensfied into the close.
[ZH: Today is op-ex day.. and selling intensified into the close]
The weekend was a rumormonger's delight.
[ZH: We will wait and see]
Retail Sales beat but Industrial Production plunged, Sentiment was mixed, and any stimulus deal was pronounced - for all intent and purpose - dead before the election. Guess which one of these 'facts' the market decided to 'act' on today (until the last hour - was that the op-ex unwind?)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-16_13-00-29.jpg?itok=eUz1WNbu
And don't forget that we had margin increases across most of the major retail brokerages today.
While most major indices rallied this week, all in the green thanks to today's op-ex rally, the late-day weakness left Small Caps red...
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-16_12-59-52.jpg?itok=4c3MPxPz
What is unusual is the coincident rise in VIX also...
See Chart:
S&P vs VIX
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm1BAB.jpg?itok=zsZ9B4Kk
Two big squeezes this week got us "back to even" but that couldn't hold this afternoon...
See Chart:
“Most Shorted” Stocks
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm93F2.jpg?itok=DqwEEQAJ
Big-tech names managed gains (NOTE that buying panic on Monday driven the Nasdaq Whale reappearing and buying calls with both hands and feet)...
See Chart:
S&P Tech Sector
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmBA4A.jpg?itok=-8EuDKjD
Banks were a bloodbath...
See Chart:
S&P Bank Sector
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmCE8A.jpg?itok=dAj-5aDJ
With Wells Fargo by far the worst and Morgan Stanley the best...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm2AA6.jpg?itok=H25LX5v5
Momo outperformed but again mostly thanks to Tuesday's opening panic...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA00C.jpg?itok=SnF-nOvQ
Despite stock market gains, bonds were also bid, led by the long-end...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6E59.jpg?itok=mWqTHW0K
UST 10Y yields found support at 70bps and bounced, but ended lower on the shortened week...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmCB4B.jpg?itok=qNBmCtCp
The B-dollar index ended higher on the week but stalled at last week's highs...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm9C89.jpg?itok=oQq_GSw6
Despite the dollar gains, oil prices managed to eke out a gain but PMs were weaker led by silver...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm9065.jpg?itok=rJWyfXjc
Gold managed to hold above $1900
WTI managed to surge back to $41 after a decent intraweek plunge
Finally, here's what the 'experts' are worrying about - cases are starting to accelerate (just don't tell anyone that deaths are stable, suggesting mortality rates are plunging)...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm4082.jpg?itok=HWyJHcT7
Time to panic? Well Monday is the 19th of October!
SOURCE:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/vix-stocks-rise-week-banks-puke-ahead-black-monday-anniversary
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IF CONGRESS CAN'T PASS MORE STIMULUS, HERE IS WHAT ELSE THE FED CAN DO
"Increasing the average duration or pace of asset purchases is the most likely option, but not a particularly effective one."
Now that nothing short of a miracle is needed to pass a new fiscal stimulus deal before the election - with Democrats and Republicans unable to reach a compromise deal even as Trump appears to have broken away from Senate Democrats and is siding with Nancy Pelosi in demanding a "big number" - attention is turning to life after the election, where bulls point to a Blue Sweep as unleashing as much as $7 trillion in fiscal spending over the next few years, an amount which Goldman believes will be more than enough to offset the adverse impact on stocks from higher corporate and capital gains taxes.
But what if there is no "blue wave", and we get 4 years gridlock instead which can happen with either with another 4 years of president Trump and a Democratic Congress, or with a Biden presidency where GOP keeps the Senate, the two adverse cases recently modeled by Bank of America, which termed these the "Stagnation" and "Deflation" scenarios, respectively?
See Chart:
Likely US elections scenarios and macro implications
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/scenario%20outcomes_1.jpg?itok=NzAZMadf
That said, even a Blue Wave scenario means that a new fiscal deal won't be signed until at least early 2021, which is a major risk for the US economy, where the recent rise in covid cases could translate to a double-dip in the economy as we enter the winter - especially oncetemperatures drop below 40 and outdoor dining shutters, hitting GDP...
See Chart:
Cold weather during the pandemic has had no lineal negative effect on dining …
Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius posed overnight in a research report in which he explains that Fed officials have recently discussed three possible options.
- First, the FOMC could adjust the composition or pace of asset purchases. Several Fed officials have expressed at least lukewarm support for this option, while a couple have been skeptical.
- Second, the FOMC could extend or adjust its new credit market facilities. Goldman expects Fed and Treasury officials to extend the facilities even if the economy performs well, but Hatzius sees little room for doing more with them.
- Third, the Fed and Treasury could ease terms on the Main Street Lending Program to aid small businesses. While some Fed officials are sympathetic to this, but Treasury support appears doubtful.
To justify these scenarios, Goldman first lays out several recent quotes from Fed officials in which they explicitly discuss the option of increasing either the pace or duration of QE:
See Table:
Asses Purchases
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/fed%20officials%2010.16.jpg?itok=EWRDChKz
Next, here are several quotes showing that Fed officials are also amenable to extending credit facilities, although easing terms further would require Treasury approval:
See Chart:
We expect credit facilities to be extended but easy theirs terms depd on Threas Approv
Finally, on the third option - easing the terms on the Main Street Lending Program to specifically target support to small and medium-sized businesses - Goldman notes that Presidents Kaplan and Barkin have expressed sympathy for giving the Main Street program a larger role if the economy weakens, though President Bullard is more reluctant. But the key challenge here too is that this would require Treasury support, "and press reports noted some disagreement between Fed and Treasury officials on the parameters of the program at the time it was unveiled." This suggests that even if Fed officials wanted to ease terms on the Main Street program in the future, they might not be able to.
See Chart:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-congress-cant-pass-more-stimulus-here-what-else-fed-can-do
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
FALL ENROLLMENT SLIDES AS CORONAVIRUS THREATENS HIGHER-EDUCATION BUBBLE
"Empty seats are inflicting financial damage on colleges..."
For the last six years we have sounded louder and louder concerns that the higher-education bubble would eventually deflate. However, no one at the time anticipated that a virus-pandemic would be the pin that pops it all.
Take, for example, the 2020 fall semester, the number of first-year undergraduate students are in freefall across the country, down 16%, when compared to 2019 fall semester, according to a new report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (NSCRC). Overall undergraduate enrollment slid 4% from this time last year, mostly because of the 13.7% drop in international students.
See Chart:
Freshman enrollment , % change from previous fall
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-15_1.jpg?itok=jy8QShiu
Regional Enrollment Percentage Change From Previous Fall Semester
See Maps:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-15_15-11-30.png?itok=D1uP4Fbc
In September, Moody's Investors Service downgraded the credit outlook for colleges and universities to negative. Disruptions in enrollment, declining international students, and a decline in research grants and contracts were some reasons Moody's outlined for the downgrade. They noted international students account for about 5% of total college and university enrollment.
Growth Of Chinese Undergraduate Students In US Set To Reverse
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-15_15-10-27.png?itok=BmVifN1D
To sum up, the great college bull market is over. At the start of the year, we cited Mauldin Economics, who said:
"20% of colleges and universities will shut down or merge in the next ten years."
... and maybe the virus pandemic has accelerated the collapse of higher education.
One last thing: What happens to metro areas that were built primarily around colleges? Does the higher education bust trigger a domino effect in the economy?
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THE CATCH-22 OF WOKE RACISM... AND OTHER ABSURDITIES
So, just to be clear, if you confront someone else for being racist, then you’re racist. But if you don’t confront them, then you’re also racist...
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RELATED:
JPMorgan Chase Funding $30B To Fix "Systemic Racism" In Banking
See Video at:
https://nv.vi-serve.com/vis-media/101/1558/FlABDHUBkrtvorUWuNEs_720p.mp4
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La olla le dice al sartén “no me toques que me tiznas”
IN STUNNING REVERSAL, TWITTER NO LONGER BLOCKING NY POST BIDEN ARTICLE
Not that it matters: by now - thanks to Twitter - everyone knows about Hunter Biden's notebook.
….
Lo cierto es que Biden y Trump son cerdos del mismo chiquero. ABSTENTION is THE SOLUTION. La merda de esos cerdos es muy difícil de limpiarla. Imposible comer esos cerdos. A PENTA’lab los contaminó con CV para enviarlos a China. Si no tienes un buen ‘inmune syst’ y comes cerdo en el US: 90% contaminado. Mi inmune syst es a prueba de balas, pero no me atrevo a comer cerdo.
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BLATANT CENSORSHIP: THE GREAT YOUTUBE PURGE ACCELERATES
Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,
“Censorship is to society what cancer is to the body.”
“When you tear out a man’s tongue, you are not proving him a liar, you’re only telling the world that you fear what he might say.” – George R.R. Martin.
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FAUCI TELLS AMERICANS TO "BITE THE BULLET AND SACRIFICE" THANKSGIVING
...has he ever said anything even slightly optimistic?
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
PUTIN WANTS "CLEAR ANSWER" FROM US ON NUCLEAR ARMS TREATY, OFFERS EXTENSION
At the start of this week it was widely reported that President Trump is seeking a last minute pre-election nuclear deal with Russia given the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) is set to expire by this upcoming February.
On Friday Putin informed the Russian Security Council of plans to push for an extension of at least one year without any preconditions.
"It would be extremely tragic if the treaty ceases to exist without being replaced with another," Putin said.
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US pro-war policy on China based on nasty XENOPHOBIA
TAIWAN MUST PREPARE TO DETER CHINESE AMPHIBIOUS LANDING: NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR O'BRIEN
"They're bullying Taiwan, they've taken over Hong Kong lock, stock, and barrel... they've asserted rights to the South China Sea like it's Lake Tahoe or something."
….
There is not such ‘amphibious landing’. I do follow Chinese news
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NEW HARVARD STUDY FINDS "ELEVATED RADIATION" LEVELS NEAR FRACKING SITES
“The increases are not extremely dangerous, but could raise certain health risks to people living nearby.”
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PENTAGON SCHOOL TO FOCUS HALF ITS CURRICULUM ON CHINA, ESPER ANNOUNCES
“Our strategic competitors China and Russia are attempting to erode our hard-earned gains,” he said.
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The venerated Santa DEA –master in drug trafficking- accusing their congregation of DT
MEXICO'S FORMER DEFENSE MINISTER ARRESTED ON DRUG TRAFFICKING CHARGES BY DEA
Gen. Cienfuegos is the highest ranking military official ever arrested on drug-related corruption...
….
How much their charge their silence? Do they want to change 100 by 99 fuegos OR maybe DEA don’t want to have competitors. In Peru DEA plane full of drugs was shot down. When US senator accuse of crime, they publish video nUS quiet
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Germany Registers Another Daily Record With 7,830 New COVID-19 Cases
-'High Stress And Mediocre Pay' To Blame For Fall In US Police Officers
-Pelosi Says Would Speak to Trump Depending on 'What the Purpose Is'
-Trump Approves Disaster Declaration for California, Reversing FEMA Decision
-RU Emb to US Demand Explanat From State Dept Over RT Journalist Questioning
-US Supreme Court to Hear Trump Bid to Exclude Illegal Migrants From Census App
-Biden Campaign Wheels Out Obama in Bid to Win Back Key Swing State of Penn
-Apple iPhone Manufacturer FoxConn Targets Electric Cars Market
-Intuitive Machines Company Wins Order to Search for Ice at Moon's South Pole
-Trump Says US Now Has Hypersonic Missiles
-UK Supports Efforts to Extend New START Between US, Russia
-NYT’s Crocodile Tears Over Iran Sanctions Disguise Role in Justifying Them
-US Negotiator Accuses Russia of 'Backtracking' on Nuclear Agreement
-Biden Earned More Views Than Trump in Town Hall Showdown
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