0CT 31 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
FINANCIAL CRISIS VS. COVID-19: THE IMPACT ON COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE & CMBS
Submitted by Trepp CMBS Research
With the devastating impact and lessons learned from the 2007-2009 economic downturn still fresh on the minds of Wall Street, the current COVID market crisis has drawn a fair amount of comparisons to the Great Financial Crisis.
In this report, Trepp examines how the commercial real estate (CRE) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) sectors were impacted by the GFC in terms of delinquencies, spreads, losses, cumulative appraisal reduction amounts (ARA), and new structural and regulatory enhancements, and how market conditions at the time compare to the current crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
THE GREAT FINANCIAL CRISIS
Apart from retail, overall delinquencies for each of the major five property sectors were elevated in the double-digits until early 2013. Since the economy was still churning despite a slowdown in activity, borrowers held onto troubled properties for much longer before finally coming to the decision to give up ownership. On the same token, the eventual economic rebound and job recovery process that followed similarly took years to unfold.
See Charts:
Historical CMBS delinquency rates
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/CMBS%20rates%201.jpg?itok=3c0idbte
THE STATE OF THE MARKETS AMID COVID
After a thorough review of thousands of special servicer commentary and supplementary loan materials, Trepp estimates that more than $31.2 billion across 800 loans have been granted forbearances thus far based on September remittance data, which represents about 5.5% of the non-agency CMBS universe. Roughly 64% of that forbearance tally is backed by lodging and another 28% is comprised by retail loans. This has helped to reduce overall delinquency rates starting in July as new 30+ day delinquencies have been leveling off thanks to a gradual reopening of parts of the economy and borrowers becoming authorized to tap into reserves to meet debt service needs.
ISSUANCE AND SPREADS
In the case of the primary issuance segment, issuers resumed bringing new deals to the market by May in hopes of clearing out their loan inventories ahead of an uncertain November election outcome.
This stood in stark contrast to the primary market rebound following the GFC as the segment was essentially frozen with nil issuance for 21 months between 2008 and 2010.
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/CMBS%20private%20label.jpg?itok=rIwKc0ie
OTHER INDICATORS FOR CRE PERFORMANCE
Since the start of the pandemic, appraisal reduction amounts (ARA) have already been climbing up steadily as current levels only mark the beginning of this increase. ARAs are expected to continue to rise over the next several months as servicers work out loans for borrowers that cannot meet debt service payments after forbearance periods come to an end.
See Charts:
Cumulative ARAs Time series during COVID Market crisis
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/cumulative%20ARAs.jpg?itok=bkkR8oqm
See also this table:
Private-Label CMBS loses by vintage
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/cmbs%20losses%20vintage.jpg?itok=e4hLWTRS
Conclusion
From a glass half full perspective, the CMBS industry has come a long way since the GFC and banks today are both more disciplined and better equipped to handle financial stressors through new regulatory mandates requiring greatly enhanced capital positions and the passing of annual stress tests to ensure bank robustness. The US Federal Reserve has also moved swiftly and proactively over the past few months to stabilize the US economy via means of injecting liquidity, keeping interest rates low, and other government-sponsored quantitative easing and bond buyback programs, a likely response to its experience dealing with the previous recession.
While the road to recovery is expected to be a long one, the hope is that the economy will bounce back more quickly this time around with strong Central Bank support, financial systems in better footing, and markets more prepared to shoulder another economic crisis.
….
----
----
10 "BIG" THINGS FOR STOCKS IN THE COMING DECADE
by Tyler Durden
1) Big top, 2) Big not, 3) Big contrarian, 4) Big tells, 5) Big levels, 6) Big events, 7) Big inflation themes, 8) Big deflation theme, 9) Big dilemma, 10) Big change.
Bank of America CIO Michael Hartnett writes that according to the latest EPFR data, investors allocated $6.7Bn into bonds, and $0.1Bn into gold, while pulling $2.1Bn out of equities, and $1.5Bn out of cash.
Of note, Hartnett points out that HY bond outflows accelerated to $3.4bn, while tech inflows were a strong $1.0Bn heading into EPS (oops)...
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/inflows%20into%20HY.jpg?itok=eo2MzE8c
Yet while the weekly flows are informative, we can now definitively conclude that they are nothing more than noise, as the so-called "smart money" idiots merely chase momentum. How do we know this? Because 4 weeks after the Nasdaq 100 mini futures saw a near record number of shorts, those same "valiant" bears promptly covered their positions and even went long the NQ... just in the time for the biggest Nasdaq rout since March. In short: while flows may have had some signal value in the past, it's now nothing more than noise.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/nasdaq%20100%20mini.jpg?itok=q6H7RHAI
With that said, we do want to point out something else in Harnett's latest note, namely his list of ten "Big" things every investor should be aware of heading into the election, and hopefully crawling out of in the next few weeks, as they decide how to allocated capital. And so, without further ado, here are 10 big things to watch for:
- Big top: IPOs (Ant $35bn largest ever, IPO ETF +163% since Mar), M&A (Oct’20 acquisition premium 142% vs 23% LTA), record $3.2tn funds raised in IG/HY/bank loans/equity/SPACs), US house prices up 15%, narrow equity leadership (top 5 SPX stocks = 24% of index), greedy IG & tech inflows, technical “double-top”, bearish narratives flipping to bullish (e.g. “blue wave”)…all classic “toppy” signs.
- Big not: strongest case against “top” is Fed not tightening (as it was ‘80, ‘87, ‘94, ‘98, ‘00, ‘08, ‘18); and most stocks not in bull market…annualized gain in global stocks since 2007 is <1% (Chart 2); 1984 of 3042 in MSCI ACWI index in bear market, i.e. are >20% below their all-time highs.
See Chart:
MSCI ACWI Equal weighted index.. as just !% annualized sinc 2007
CONTINUE READING and see more interesting charts at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/10-big-things-stocks-coming-decade
----
----
US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
FROM MIDTOWN TO PORTLAND, BUSINESSES ARE BOARDING UP IN ANTICIPATION OF ELECTION NIGHT CHAOS
"Our windows at Macy's Herald Square were previously scheduled to be dark next week in set-up for our annual holiday displays."
====
IS THIS A PRO-TRUMP POLL? I don’t think so.
HERE IS THE RESULT IF THE POLLS ARE AS WRONG IN 2020 AS THEY WERE IN 2016
Trump wins with 279 of the 538 electoral votes, while Biden would get 259
A Trump victory has a roughly 39% probability according to this data, which is up slightly from 37.1% a week ago. The national polls – compiled by Real Clear Politics - suggest a similar tilt in the race with Biden having a 51.3%-43.5% lead against Trump.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/rcp%20polls.jpg?itok=vxZgiFwY
Digging into the state polling in competitive states, Biden currently leads in all the battleground, or "toss up" states except for Ohio, Arizona and Texas. This would give him a comfortable Electoral College (EC) victory of 346-192...
See MAP:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/toss%20ups.jpg?itok=bFlheTlj
... even though RCP's average polls of Top Battleground states (FL, PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ), is now just +3.1 in Biden's favor and down from 5% to weeks ago, with Arizona just flipping to Trump in the past 24 hours.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/battelground%202.jpg?itok=NCNx3v1i
That said, polls are imperfect as 2016 demonstrated – indeed, if we apply the polling miss from 2016 as Bank of America did last week, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Iowa and and Maine would flip. For this exercise we have used the latest RCP polling average data as of Oct 31:
Arizona: Trump +0.6- Florida: Biden +1.2
- Michigan: Biden +6.5
- North Carolina: Biden +1.2
- Pennsylvania: Biden +3.7
- Wisconsin: Biden +6.4
- Georgia: Biden +0.8
- Iowa: Biden +1.2
- Maine 2: Biden +2.7
- Minnesota: Biden +4.7
- Nebraska-2: Biden +7.8
- Nevada: Biden +4.0
- Ohio: Tie
- Texas: Trump +2.3
These numbers are then adjusted by applying the same error rates as were observed during the 2016 polling, and the results are shown in the table below
See Table:
Remarkably, if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Trump would win with 279 of the 538 electoral votes, while Biden would get 259.
Still, the margin of victory would be within 0.5 percentage points in Wisconsin (for Biden) and Georgia (for Trump), which would trigger an automatic recount and delay results. In addition, the margin in Pennsylvania and Florida would be less than 1.0%, likely resulting in a bitter post-election night fight and contested outcomes.
In short, no matter what happens on Nov 3, expect recounts and extensive delays before we have a clear winner.
In short, it matter what happens on Nov 3, expect recounts and extensive delays before we have a clear winner.
Putting this together, Bloomberg said it best: "All of that means a Trump win on Tuesday would represent a historically staggering failure by public opinion polls, eclipsing even the 2016 miss. While the president’s chances of being re-elected aren’t zero, pollsters say it’s a long shot."
“If Donald Trump wins, in 2020, anything close to a decisive Electoral College win knowable on election night, that would have repercussions for the research profession that would ripple forever -- and deservedly so,” said Jay Leve, chief executive officer of SurveyUSA, a polling firm.
As Bloomberg notes, Level and other pollsters say the election outcomes range from a blowout Biden win to a closely fought contest that could hinge on recounts and court rulings that either candidate could win. They don’t consider a clear, quick and decisive Trump victory among the possibilities.
“It would be astonishing,” Leve said.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-result-if-polls-are-wrong-2020-they-were-2016
----
----
Wikipedia is the only free press we have. If you have diff-opin just publish yours
QUANTIFYING THE LEFT WING BIAS OF WIKIPEDIA
Is Wikipedia’s neutral point of view truly dead? ...analysis shows thateditors favoring right-leaning views were six times more likely to be sanctioned than those favoring left-leaning views...
….
Quantify first your intolerance and pro-fascist views
====
BLM is not only an-anti racist MOV, it is a PEOPLE FRONT FOR HUMAN RIGHTS
NEARLY 50% OF BLM PROTESTERS ARRESTED IN SEATTLE WERE WHITE, FROM OTHER CITIES
"He definitely doesn’t seem to have an issue vandalizing and breaking into businesses and destroying other people’s property."
….
Vandalization –since G Floyd- is excuse for fascistic terrorism- The Police who kill in the name of order are criminals that has to be put in jail. If we don’t want vandalism we have to create the social environment to prevent it, not the explosive inequality that fosters it. The police who kill disarmed people is accomplice of inequality & deserve capital-penalty. Every -one has the right to protect their own property & the right to do it with arms. We don’t need the fascistic-racist terrorism from policemen. We can create our own police.
====
IF we start WW3 with Iran-RU-CH many cities in US will be ghost-town like San Fco.
"A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE LEAVING": COVID SHUTDOWNS HAVE TURNED SAN FRANCISCO INTO A GHOST TOWN
“The spark of living in the city just kind of burned out a bit with everything being closed. We kind of didn’t see when it would come back to normal.”
….
IF one nuke-missile cross their borders they will respond immediately via satellite already set. The recent agreement to dismantle nuclear missiles among PENTA-NATO Nations & RU-CH ++ is a Siren-Chant. We continue manufacturing those weapons, & RU is doing the same thing.
====
WATCH: CONVOY OF TRUMP TRUCKS 'ESCORTS' BIDEN CAMPAIGN BUS OUT OF TEXAS
"THIS IS VIOLENCE, hitting people with cars is violence."
====
Another make-up to the alive ghost USD. The USD is dim to fall, silver won’t save it
RICKARDS: SILVER COULD EXPLODE WITHIN WEEKS
In fact, in an extreme crisis, silver may be more practical than gold as a medium of exchange. A gold coin is too valuable to exchange for a basket of groceries, but a silver coin or two is just about right.
…..
A path to gold currency start with gold coins + silver c= huge positive step.
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
WE have to defeat XENOPHOBIA : China is not our enemy, just a competitor
IS CHINA AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO AMERICA?
This is a crucial time in the history of our republic...
UN Secretary‑General Antonio Guterres, speaking to the General Assembly on September 22, said the world must do everything to prevent a new Cold War."We are headed in a very dangerous direction," he said.
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Maduro Claims Trump Copies Chavez While Dancing During Campaign Rallies
-Turkey's 'Imperial Inclinat Not a Good Thing' for Regional Stability, Macron Says
-Two Reported Dead and Five Wounded After Stabbing Attack in Quebec
-Offices, Cafes Boarding Up in Washington DC Ahead of Election Day
-Gunmen Attack Convoy of Deputy Head of Afghanistan's Reconciliation Council
-Police Report Clash Betw Trump Supporters and Counterprotest in Beverly Hills
-Police Pepper Spray Demonstrators in North Carolina
-Obama, Biden Slam Presi Trump at Their First Joint Campaign Event in Michigan
-N York Governor Announces New Quarantine Policy for Those Entering State
====
====
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario