0CT 24 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
How the public, social and economic response to covid in 2021 will be different
Covid resurgence risks are flashing, as new infection cases rose 4% W/W, to a record ~350k per day (vs. 228k/254k/283k in Jul/Aug/Sep) largely due to record test numbers, yet this is more than offset by a diminished and stubbornly low mortality rate (2.8% vs. peak: 7.2%), which may be due to better treatment as well as a younger population catching the virus, further mitigated by vaccine/treatment progress...
See Charts:
... while hospitalizations due to covid remain very much under control...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/hospitalizations%20us.jpg?itok=qpBhgcJQ
Public Health Strategy: 2020 will not be 2021
Looking ahead, JPMorgan suggests dour things in next year’s public health strategy:
1. First, testing should be free or largely subsidized by government to encourage large-scale testing of susceptible groups.
2. Second, potential drug candidates should be fully included under public/private insurance coverage.
3. and put more people at risk. Indicatively, at this stage, China has fully removed treatment expenses for COVID-19.
4. Third, the current infection control strategy of temporarily closing hospitals, workplaces and schools following infection reporting should be amended in a way that does not involve closing. Thus, the current manual on infection control could lead to large economic/social burden if the infection curve repeats in 2021 with more random outbreaks, as current testing needs two to three days to generate results. Furthermore, as even JPMorgan admits, by far, the overall mortality risk of the working population and young age group looks reasonably low, and it is hard to identify all asymptomatic cases.
5. Fourth, large-scale antibody testing (~1-5% of the total population) would allow a better understanding of a community’s immunity status.
That said, the shape of the global infection curve could be milder and smaller after this winter due to developments in treatment (faster recovery), smaller susceptibility under rising public awareness, and faster public responses on secondary infection rate (R0) control.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/covid%20waves.jpg?itok=LfeDv9vA
Mortality: 2.8% (vs. peak: 7.2%)
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/weekly%20excess%20deaths.jpg?itok=98y_SDQD
Curve control
If the average recovery period were to shorten from about two weeks currently to less than one week, this would open a new window for curve control, the economy and the public stress level on social distancing.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/covid%2010%20possible%20curves.jpg?itok=9cd7uPN-
To summarize, this is how JPM pictures Covid in 2021:
Infections: expect a series of waves rippling globally/in Asia. The infection curve could be milder and smaller after winter passes,
.factoring in a faster recovery, smaller susceptibility and a faster public response.
- Mortality: The bank expects a mortality rate (= death/infections) decline below 2% by end-1H21 (vs. current: 2.8%).
- Curve control: JPM does not foresee lockdowns as a key public health strategy beyond 2020. Managing R0 ≤1, rather than full suppression, could become a primary focus.
- Testing: Schools and offices are expected to remain open in 2021. Regular testing is likely to be widely implemented as test results become available faster (link).
· Border control: While borders will gradually re-opening, quarantines (7-14 days) and daily flight quota controls at airports will continue in 2021.
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/covid-scenarios-2021
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HOUSING MARKET GOES NUTS, EVERYONE SEES IT, BUT IT CAN'T LAST
There’s a housing shortage until there’s suddenly a housing glut: see San Francisco et al...
Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,
Another batch of crazy housing data yesterday. Crazy in the sense that the housing market, or rather part of it, namely the higher end of it, has gone totally crazy and that by now everyone knows that this isn’t “sustainable,” that “there’s no way it can last forever,” as Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman told CNBC. And he pointed out what everyone has already been pointing out, that “part of what is fueling this boom is that the economy has just split into two, and rich people are able to access capital almost for free, so, of course, they’re going to use that money to buy homes.”
But “there’s just another group of Americans who are still struggling, who can’t access the credit because we’ve raised credit standards, and you have high unemployment. I just think those two trends, at some point, have to collide.”
It’s the now well-established phenomenon of the “K-shaped recovery,” where one part is doing well, and the other part is getting crushed.
But this craziness in the housing market is not sustainable. The National Association of Realtors reported yesterday that sales of existing homes – single-family houses, condos, and co-ops – surged in September by 9.4% from August and by 20.9% from a year ago to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million homes, the highest since 2006 (data via YCharts):
SEE CHART:
Existing Home Sales Spike
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/US-Existing-home-sales-2020-10-23.png?itok=DBTvVS_c
Seasonally, home sales normally decline in late summer and fall. But not this year. And the seasonal adjustments of the above numbers are designed for normal seasons. The NAR also releases raw(-er) sales numbers that are neither “seasonally adjusted” nor “annualized.”
The median price of existing homes in September jumped 14.8% year-over-year to $311,800. The median price is skewed by a shift in the mix, and the price increase could also partially a result of red-hot demand for higher-priced homes (data via YCharts):
See Chart:
Median sold price of existing homes
Total housing inventory of homes for sale at the end of September fell 1.9% from August and 19.2% from September, to 1.47 million homes, according to the NAR. Given the sales rate in September, this represented 2.7 months of supply, the lowest ratio in the data going back to 1999. Granted, with today’s technologies of advertising, selling, financing, and closing the sale of a home, sales take a lot less time than the did in 1999, but still (data via YCharts):
See Chart:
Existing homes months of supply
The inventory of homes for sale spiked from “shortage” to “glut” in a matter of months. As of the week ended October 11, there were a record 2,476 homes listed for sale, up by 72% from the same week last year, with condos accounting for the lion’s share. Note how the glut has blown all seasonality out of the water (chart via Redfin):
See Chart:
Active Listing in San Francisco County, CA
In addition, there is lots of supply waiting in the wings, including: A portion of the homes whose mortgages are in forbearance and delinquent will have to be sold to cure the delinquent mortgage; homes whose owners moved into their recently-bought new home will end up on the market; and homes owned by investors for vacation rentals will end up on the market if vacation rentals continue to be a drag in those cities. This surge in supply can happen suddenly, as it has happened in San Francisco.
Which makes me wonder: Will the Fed, after the election (it never changes policy shortly before an election), start muttering musings in the same direction concerning its MBS purchases? It too is seeing this housing insanity, and after having already quietly mothballed its corporate bond-buying program, its repos, and its dollar liquidity swaps, it would be an unsurprising next step.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/housing-market-goes-nuts-everyone-sees-it-it-cant-last
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WHAT 'THE GREAT RESET' ARCHITECTS DON'T WANT YOU TO UNDERSTAND ABOUT ECONOMICS
...while COVID may be the catalyzer for the oncoming financial blowout, it is the height of stupidity to believe that it is the cause, as the seeds of the crisis goes deeper and originated much earlier than most people are prepared to admit.
Authored by Matthew Ehret via The Saker blog,
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Vice President of the World Bank Carmen Reinhardt recently warned on October 15 that a new financial disaster looms ominously over the horizon with a vast sovereign default and a corporate debt default. Just in the past 6 months of bailouts unleashed by the blowout of the system induced by the Coronavirus lockdown, Reinhardt noted that the U.S. Federal Reserve created $3.4 Trillion out of thin air while it took 40 years to create $14 Trillion.
Meanwhile panicking economists are screaming in tandem that banks across Trans Atlantic must unleash ever more hyperinflationary quantitative easing which threatens to turn our money into toilet paper while at the same time acquiescing to infinite lockdowns in response to a disease which has the fatality levels of a common flu.
Continue reading at:
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
DOUG CASEY ON WHY THE 2020S WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST TURBULENT DECADE IN 250 YEARS
The next decade promises all sorts of upheaval, the greatest of which may be political... the US is not going back to things as they once were.
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THE TRILLION-DOLLAR F-35 FIGHTER PROGRAM DOES NOT MAKE AMERICANS SAFER
The president’s military spending increase is based on the false premise that more spending equals more security. More spending may even make America less safe by spending us into bankruptcy...
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La RU-phobia es ridícula estupidez aimed to prepare WW3. IT FAIL
THE DAMAGE RUSSIAGATE HAS DONE
All anybody (if they’re a Democrat) has to do to escape accountability and justice for very serious crimes is to shout “Russia!”
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LATINO BUSINESS OWNER: THIS ELECTION IS NOT ABOUT DONALD TRUMP
The way forward out of these extraordinarily challenging times is not by taking the path of Big Government but rather to expand individual opportunity...
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NEW DATA REVEALS JUST HOW MANY AMERICANS TEMPORARILY MOVED TO ESCAPE PANDEMIC
"Over the past several months, we've seen an influx of renters in the Hamptons..."
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BLM PROTESTERS CALL FOR DEFUNDING SAN BERNARDINO POLICE AFTER OFFICER KILLS ARMED BLACK SUSPECT
We can't help but wonder how they would have reacted if it was an armed white man who was shot by police?
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POLICIES OVER POLITICS. WHOEVER WINS, WE ALL LOSE
There is no “will” to fix the problems plaguing the economy and welfare system before they break. Such is why whoever wins the Presidency, we all still wind up losing...
See Chart:
TOTAL DEBT vs. GDP
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Total-Debt-GDP-Rates-101320.png?itok=jgx136bq
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/policies-over-politics-whoever-wins-we-all-lose
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
ITALY PLANS RETURN TO PARTIAL LOCKDOWN AS CASES HIT FRESH RECORD: LIVE UPDATES
The US smashed its previous daily record on Friday when it reported 83,304 new cases, exceeding its prior July 29 peak with just 2 weeks to go before election day...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Watch New Yorkers Stand in Hours-Long Queues to Cast Early Votes in Presidential Election
-Sky News Reporters Released by Belarusian Police - Association of Journalists
-Death Toll From Kabul Suicide Attack Rises to 30, 70 Injured
-US Vice President Mike Pence's Chief of Staff Marc Short Tests Positive for COVID-19
-Afghan Security Forces Announce Killing of 'Al-Qaeda Key Member' Abu Muhsin al-Masri
-Trump Campaign Files Lawsuit in Nevada, Asks Court to Stop Officials From Counting Early Votes
-France Recalls Its Ambassador to Turkey as Erdogan Claims Macron Needs 'Mental Checks'
-Two Blasts Occur on Russian Tanker in Azov Sea As Vessel Catches Fire –
-Demonstrators Protest Outside Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Residence in Jerusalem
-Trump Casts Ballot as Final Week of US Election Campaign Nears
-Texas AG Office ‘Turbulence’ May Delay Multistate Ad Suit Against Google, US Media Says
-US Respects Belarus' Sovereignty, Aims to Develop Bilateral Ties, Pompeo Reportedly Tells Lukashenko
-US Senate Debates Amy Coney Barrett’s Nomination for SCOTUS Role
-Moscow Sends 10 More Armoured Vehicles to Central African Republic
-'Security Prevails' in Iran Amid Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Near Country’s Borders
Yemen’s Houthis Have Targeted Two Airports in Saudi Arabia
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