0CT 7 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
SEE VP DEBATE PENCE-HARRIS in SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS at the end
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HURRICANE DELTA TO STRIKE GULF COAST FRIDAY
"Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast"
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
GOLDMAN FINDS THE PANDEMIC RECESSION WAS ACTUALLY NOT THAT BAD
"Long-term scarring effects on businesses and the labor force have proved much more limited than feared."
Ludicrous? Insane? Hilarious? Perhaps all three, yet here are some of the data Goldman used to reach its arguably offensive to tens of millions of Americans conclusion:
The left side of Exhibit 1 shows that total commercial bankruptcy filings reported have actually run below the pre-pandemic trend. While a recent San Francisco Fed report noted with alarm that Chapter 11 bankruptcies are running at the fastest pace since 2013, this largely reflects recent changes to the bankruptcy code and it has been more than offset by declines in other commercial bankruptcy filings.
The right side of Exhibit 1 shows that Bloomberg’s count of bankruptcies at large companies did briefly spike to a level that approached the financial crisis peak. But as our credit strategists have shown, the majority of these were firms already on a path to default before the pandemic, not otherwise healthy businesses needlessly sunk by an unprecedented shock.
See Charts:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/business%20sector%20GS.jpg?itok=HDpXQ1yM
What about Goldman's optimistic take on the labor market?
Here the economists argue that the silver lining of the employment collapse was the very high share of temporary layoffs shown in Exhibit 3, historically something which they say is "a reliable signal of rapid recovery" even as those permanently laid off is an dangerously high number, the highest since 2013, Goldman's spin notwithstanding.
See Chart:
PERMANENT Job Loses
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/permanent%20job%20losses.jpg?itok=nDqc8l9b
To elucidate their point, Goldman next claims that just five months later, the number of newly unemployed workers since the virus shock has indeed declined dramatically, and about half still report that they are on temporary layoff. While not all of these workers will return to their old positions, this nevertheless points to further outsized job gains in coming months.
See Chart:
Half of the newly unemployed are Still on temporary layoff
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/half%20newly%20unemployed.jpg?itok=gXcj0rfF
Here Bank of America disagrees, and lays out three cyclical forces today that spell out far greater pain for the labor force than GOldman is willing to admit, to wit:
. History repeats: skill mismatch yet again. Given the lack of demand for services-travel, entertainment, etc.-there will likely end up being discouraged workers in this sector.
. Disengagement from the labor force due to health or childcare: the threat of the virus has left many people with extremely difficult decisions to make.
. Reengagment in the labor force because of the "telepresence revolution": over the medium-term, the shift toward greater virtual / remote working could be a positive for the LFPR.
While Goldman acknowledges this, saying that "not all workers who lost jobs in virus-sensitive industries will return to them when a vaccine becomes available, and many layoffs are likely to prove permanent" but then adds that "workers who have to switch jobs or even occupations already face much better prospects for re-employment than after previous recessions."
This, they conclude, "bodes well for the economy’s medium-term recovery prospects and is one more reason for Goldman's above-consensus 2021 growth forecast." What about the withdrawal of fiscal support which has forced Americans to draw down drastically on their savings which were boosted by the massive fiscal stimulus...
See Chart:
Personal Saving Rate
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-10-01%20%281%29_2.png?itok=xY2baDB6
... and to resume paying down credit card debt for the first time in months?
See Chart:
Revolving Consumer Credit
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/revolving%20oct%202020_0.jpg?itok=esl0prjh
To this all one can say is wow: and while we certainly would urge the Goldman economists to read something like "A devastating experience:' Temporary layoffs just became permanent for millions of American workers, and "Ex-Bankruptcy Judge Says Worse Is Yet To Come", we have two questions: just why did Goldman publish such a puff piece - what does it stand to gain by gutting its reputation for at least pretend-objective analysis - and question number two: has anyone on the Goldman economics team actually stepped one foot outside their academic tri-state ivory tower in the past year?
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-finds-pandemic-recession-was-actually-not-bad
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"IT’S A CIVIL WAR": DECADE OF COVENANT-LITE DEALS LEADS TO LEVERAGED LOAN "PANIC"
The chickens from the covenant-lite euphoria of the past decade have come home... for the slaughter.
It was a little over two years ago that we last looked at the "covenant lite" insanity sweeping the loan market for the past decade, where as a result of a buying frenzy among yield-starved investors, corporations had managed to get away with selling "secured" debt that was anything but secured, and offered only the slimmest - if any - protections to investors. In fact, by early 2018, the amount of covenant-lite loans hit an unprecedented 75%...
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/cov%20lite%20loans%202_3.jpg?itok=uSzEWxM1
It also means that the entire $1.2 trillion universe of secured loans - because by definition first and second-lien bank debt is secured by company assets and has first dibs on them in case of default - is effectively no longer secured.
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/1.2%20trilion%20market.jpg?itok=CQwaQVoJ
Continue reading at:
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TOP FED ECONOMIST SAYS ANOTHER $3.5 TRILLION IN QE NEEDED
Which, of course, is hardly news now that the Fed due to helicopter money is stuck monetizing debt in perpetuity.
See Chart:
Fed Balance sheet
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Fed%20BS%20.jpg?itok=SZKYC6hT
But what is scariest is not that the Fed will continue monetizing every single dollar of US debt issuance for the foreseeable future, and perhaps indefinitely which considering the CBO's latest forecast means a long, long time...
See Chart:
Federal Debt held by the Public 1900 to 2050
... but rather that the Fed no longer even pretends to know what it is doing: as the Fed economist admitted, his findings are based on models developed prior to the Covid-19 outbreak that "may fail to capture how pandemic shocks affect investment and other decisions." In other words, as even Bloomberg concedes, "economists don’t really know how or whether the pandemic might disrupt the impact they expect from bond purchases on real economic activity."
The only thing that Fed does have is doing more of the same debt-buying can-kicking which guarantees with absolute certainty, that the entire financial and socioeconomic system collapses and not because of China, or Russia, or terrorist, but because of a group of clueless hack in the Federal Reserve.
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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/top-fed-economist-says-another-35-trillion-qe-needed
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"IT’S A CIVIL WAR": DECADE OF COVENANT-LITE DEALS LEADS TO LEVERAGED LOAN "PANIC"
The chickens from the covenant-lite euphoria of the past decade have come home... for the slaughter.
It was a little over two years ago that we last looked at the "covenant lite" insanity sweeping the loan market for the past decade, where as a result of a buying frenzy among yield-starved investors, corporations had managed to get away with selling "secured" debt that was anything but secured, and offered only the slimmest - if any - protections to investors. In fact, by early 2018, the amount of covenant-lite loans hit an unprecedented 75%...
See Chart:
Yet another record for US Covenant –lite Loan Isuance
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/cov%20lite%20loans%202_3.jpg?itok=uSzEWxM1
... which meant that Moody's Loan Covenant Quality Indicator (LCQI) dropped to its record-worst level in the first quarter of 2018.
"While the rate of deterioration in covenant quality has slowed, protections remain distressingly weak on average," said Derek Gluckman, Moody's VP-Senior Covenant Officer. "Investors should remain wary given the risks presented by most loan documents and the likelihood that any steadying of covenant protections is temporary."
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VP DEBATE POST-MORTEM: PENCE TROUNCES "GAFFE MACHINE" HARRIS
“Senator, your party has spent the last three and a half years trying to overturn the results of the last election...”
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THE CONSTITUTIONAL RECKONING OF STATE LOCKDOWN ORDERS
COVID-19 will come and go as all pandemics do. However, if we do not resolve the fundamental questions regarding our liberties and the power of government, they will haunt this republic till its final days...
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Lost of basic logic… sign of collapse soon
REGENERON SHARES JUMP AFTER TRUMP CALLS COVID TREATMENT "A CURE"
"...they called them therapeutic, but to me it wasn't therapeutic, it just made me better. I call that a cure.”
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The cure for our society is HIS DEFEAT IN ELECTIONS
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KISSINGER WARNS: CHINA-US MUST AGREE TO "LIMITS" ON MAKING THREATS OR RISK WAR
Ironically on same day Chinese state media threats 'war preparations' should Taiwan resume formal diplomatic relations with US...
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DESPITE "CRAVING FOR NORMALCY", HERE ARE NINE REASONS WHY TRUMP MAY STILL WIN
In the so-called Red Scare of 1919-20, the country had been swept by strikes, protests and race riots. A severe recession had begun in January 1920. By November, what most Americans craved was indeed normalcy...
NINE REASONS WHY THE POLLS MIGHT BE EVEN MORE WRONG THAN LAST TIME.
First, a striking 11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls, while 10.5% of independents also fall into the “shy voter” category.
Second, the law-and-order issue really matters to those shy voters. (It also gave Trump his best debate moments.) Polls give us a sample of voters’ stated preferences. Revealed preferences are in many ways more reliable. According to Small Arms Analytics, gun sales in August 2020 were 58% higher than in August 2019, continuing a surge of purchases (especially of handguns) since the spring. In 2016, gun ownership was very closely correlated with voting for Trump.
Third, the resumption of the so-called culture wars this summer was a godsend for Trump. Judging by Tucker Carlson’s ratings — not only on cable but also on YouTube — there are at least five million Americans who share his skepticism about the Black Lives Matter movement, to say nothing of “critical race theory.”
Fourth, check out whose Facebook posts have been getting shared the most this year. On the day of the first presidential debate, five of the top 10 posts were by conservative firebrand Ben Shapiro, not an unusual occurrence this year.
Fifth, the third vacancy on the Supreme Court in as many years was another stroke of luck for Trump. Conservative voters care more about the makeup of the court than liberals, so Amy Coney Barrett was a near-perfect pick to boost Republican turnout.
Sixth, Hispanic voters seem unenthused about Biden and indeed about voting generally. That matters in Florida, obviously, but there are 11 other states where Hispanics are more than 10% of eligible voters, including Arizona and Texas.
Seventh, Republicans are winning the voter-registration game in key states, notably Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Eighth, as a significant percentage of mail-in ballots tend to be rejected because of errors, Trump should benefit from the higher proportion of Democratic voters intending to vote that way.
Finally, don’t underrate the economy. A third-quarter bounce as big as the one projected by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow would give Trump a second term if you simply plug the number into the wonderfully parsimonious model devised many years ago by Yale’s Ray Fair to predict U.S. elections with economic variables.
Usually, if you can think of nine reasons why a hypothesis might be wrong, it’s probably wrong.
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WHITE HOUSE SECURITY OFFICIAL REPORTEDLY CAUGHT COVID-19 WEEKS AGO, IS 'GRAVELY ILL'
Bloomberg just published a scoop that could upend the discussion around the White House outbreak, with barely an hour left before the Wednesday's VP debate.
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
POMPEO SEEKS 'ASIAN NATO' TO COUNTER CHINA IN TALKS WITH JAPAN, INDIA & AUSTRALIA
“As partners in this Quad...we collaborate to protect our people and partners from the CCP’s exploitation, corruption and coercion.”
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BRAZIL BECOMES 3RD COUNTRY TO PASS 5 MILLION CONFIRMED CASES OF COVID-19: LIVE UPDATES
More European cities are imposing "localized" closures...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Trump Says All US Troops in Afghanistan Will Be 'Home By Christmas' Ver para creer
-Key Points From Pence-Harris Debate
-True Star of VP Debate: Mike Pence's Fly Trends Wordwide
-Stoltenberg’s Visit to Ankara: Have Turkey’s Expectations Been Met?
-Highlight of Debate Night: 'Campaign Fly' on Pence's Head Steals the Show, Gets Weaponized by Biden
-OSCE to Deliver Accurate Assessment of US Election Despite COVID-19 Limits
-‘Dangerously Incompetent’: US Medical Journal Castigates Trump Administration Over COVID-19 Response
-Harris-Pence Vice Presidential Debates Take Place in Salt Lake City, Utah - Video
-‘Assassinat is America's Modus Operandi’ – Assad About Trump’s Old Plan to Kill Him
-Twitter Buzzes With Excitement in Anticipation of Harris-Pence VP Debate
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THE REST FOR TOMORROW
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