Nueva Democracia: 0CT 25 20 ND SIT EC y POL

0CT 25 20 ND SIT EC y POL

ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS

Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics

MORGAN STANLEY: THERE IS MORE DOWNSIDE THAN UPSIDE FROM CURRENT S&P500 LEVELS

From Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief US equity strategist

In short, we like our 3100-3550 range on the S&P 500 as a good guide for US equity risk-taking from both a technical and valuation perspective.

With just one week to go until the US elections, the outcome remains uncertain. It’s also holding up the next round of fiscal stimulus. This political uncertainty along with the arrival of the second wave of COVID-19 has pushed equity volatility higher and the S&P 500 hasn’t been able to make a new closing high in eight weeks, the longest period since the new bull market began in March.

From a technical perspective, I have been watching a key resistance area for the S&P 500 since early September that comes in around 3550.

See Chart:

Long-time Resistance holds again

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/LT%20resistance_0.jpg?itok=Nd7by7YY

Two weeks ago, the index failed to break through that level for the second time. This technical failure is not the end of the bull market, but it does suggest that this level of resistance is formidable and will be difficult to surmount in the near term. On the downside, I continue to like the 200-day moving average, which comes in around 3125. Bottom line, from a technical perspective I stick with our call from early September that the S&P 500 will be range-bound between 3100 and 3550 into November.

See Chart:

Close up Look at this resistance

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/200%20resistance%20MS_0.jpg?itok=EbqzimmC

From a valuation perspective, the S&P 500 is trading at an equity risk premium of 380bp. That’s a fair but full level based on the current realized equity volatility.

See Chart:

S&P 500 30 days realized volatility

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/second%20wave.jpg?itok=-hggUHnK

However, with so much uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US elections, the second wave of COVID-19, and the upward pressure on long-term interest rates and volatility, the equity risk premium should be about 10% higher, in my view. In short, we like our 3100-3550 range on the S&P 500 as a good guide for US equity risk-taking from both a technical and valuation perspective.

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READ THESE TITLES & CHOOSE

STIMULUS, NO STIMULUS - MARKET BOUNCES WITH HEADLINES

“risk happens fast,”

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THE MOTHER OF ALL STOCK MARKET BUBBLES

Never before in US equity market history was there as great a disconnect between economic reality and equity prices as now...

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US DOMESTIC POLITICS

Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

ODDS OF A "BLUE WAVE" TUMBLE, HAMMERING RISK

Is Wall Street's most "consensus" trade about to blow up?

Futures were hammered right off the start on Sunday evening amid what Bloomberg describes as "pessimism that a U.S. stimulus deal can be reached before the Nov. 3 election." Which is great in relation to asset prices.

See Chart:

Emini S&P Futures

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/odds-blue-wave-suddenly-tumble-hammering-risk

What has, however, changed is a dramatic shift in online polling sentiment regarding what until just days ago was a certainty that a "Blue Sweep" would take place.

As a reminder, it is a Blue Sweep - not just a Biden victory - that is instrumental for the reflation trade, or what BofA called the "Bullish Elevation" scenario, as only unified governance will enable the continued CARES Act-style economic support that can return the US economy to the levels achieved at the end of 2019 ("a step-change to 3%+ GDP & higher productivity requires major new investments in R&D, capex, and a broader base of household demand; such policy shifts "require bold leadership and a governing majority, not tepid incrementalism").

Well, for whatever reason - perhaps it just the latest newsflow, or that Trump gaining on Biden in key Battleground states to within a margin of error, various analyses from Marko Kolanovic, or just plain "optimism fatigue" – the Predictit odds of a Democratic Sweep have slumped from 62 cents two weeks ago to just 51 cents currently...

See Chart:

Blue sweep odds Predict it

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/blue%20sweep%20odds.jpg?itok=Xivea5oH

... and at one point in the past 24 hours, even dipping below 50, before recovering modestly, although a sweep is as of this moment a coin flip.

See Chart:

Intraday Odds of Blue sweep

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/intraday%20odds%20blue%20sweep.jpg?itok=8LgYEcYD

And since online odds still have a Biden victory as virtually assured, the reason for the slide in the chart above is the sudden surge in doubt that Democrats will wrest control of the Senate. Only without the Senate, the key anchor of the "stimulus" and "reflation" trades is gone.

See Chart:

Which Party will control the Senate: Dems or Reps?

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/senate%20control%2010.25.jpg?itok=BxMHlj_P

In fact, according to BofA the only scenario worse than a Trump presidency and a Democratic Congress (which results in Stagnation), is a Biden presidency and a GOP Senate, which would lead to Deflation. This is how the bank described this particular scenario:

President Biden + Republican Senate = Bearish Gridlock

If Republicans retains the Senate they are very likely to block further stimulus under a Democratic President, which BofA says would be bearish for economic growth, corporate profits and financial markets (but it would be bullish for more stimulus from the Fed). In any case, as BofA sarcastically puts it,"after $21tn of monetary & fiscal stimulus in 2020, $0 of follow-on support would be deflationary."

Indeed, political parties historically have used obstructionist tactics when out of power to thwart key legislation, most often through the “rediscovery” of commitments to “fiscal discipline”. As an example, BofA cites the budget austerity during 2012-2015 as a major reason for the slow economic recovery.

Such a scenario would mean a deflationary reset, as "investors should prepare for lower returns and higher volatility. Raise cash and buy Treasuries, munis,

See Chart:

Likely US election scenarios and Macro implications

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/deflation%20outcome.jpg?itok=9Yu_X6LZ

Meanwhile, as we discussed last week when we observed the latest record net short in 30Y futures across leveraged funds and speculators - which in the week ending Oct 20 turned even more record short - all that is needed for the mother of all bond short squeezes is a "deflationary" catalyst.

See Chart:

30Y TSY shorts: levered funds and specs

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/30y%20specs%2010.25.jpg?itok=pBeztJU8

Republicans holdings on to the Senate would be just that catalyst, and with online odds suddenly suggesting that there are even odds that Democrats can not take the Senate going long the 30Y here could not only be the best hedge to a "shock" outcome on Nov 3, but make some trader's career if on election night we learn that the GOP has held on to the senate.

Incidentally, the unwind of the consensus trade would "work" even if there is no clarity on the presidency for weeks, as the GOP has no chance of retaking the House, and so the real trigger that would crush consensus is not what happens to the presidency but the Senate, and by implication to the Blue Wave. As of right now, the odds of such a Wave happening are no better than a coin toss.

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SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/odds-blue-wave-suddenly-tumble-hammering-risk

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Electoral promises have relative value, though we hope rad-chang in Sec-Apart

TRUMP TO 'IMMEDIATELY FIRE' FBI, CIA DIRECTORS IF REELECTED

President Trump will 'immediately' move to fire FBI Director Christopher Christopher Wray and CIA Director Gina Haspel, along with Defense Secretary Mark Esper, according to Axios - which spoke to "people who've discussed these officials' fates with the president."

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Si el egoism extremo prima (greed vs Public need) we have to create a new Syst

WHY EQUALITY OF OUTCOME CAN NEVER, EVER WORK

A sharp, divisive cultural debate in the United States is that of equality of opportunity versus equality of outcome...

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1-Equality of opportunity did exist since the socialist Inca Empire (Check the book of Louis Baudin : A socialist Empire. The Incas of Peru) and it existed in other type of socialism before the arrival of capitalism. Socialism in current days (China case) don’t expect individual equality across the nation, it only expect that private interest coincide with the interest of the Nation & whole Humanity . SO, it is the public need that has to prevail to be called socialism, if the private greed prevails the system is immoral and need to be replaced.

2- Any system is a set of parts and individl elements that function as a whole to achieve a common purpose. A syst can’t achieve its purpose without key elements and elements by itself can’t replicate the syst functions. They work together & create synergies (the whole in action is greater than the sum of their part & elements). Parts & elements provide energy to the whole system and the system need to distribute energy to the parts according to different function they have. The syt has to maintain the unity such differences : that is called entropy. The equality of outcomes doesn’t exist in System theory.

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LIES & MISS-INTERPRETATION are typical in Trump: stupid RUSO PHOBIA

PUTIN DEFENDS BIDENS, BECOMES 'VISIBLY IRRITATED' WHEN ASKED ABOUT $3.5 MILLION MOSCOW PAYMENT TO HUNTER

And just like that, Vladimir became their hero.

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IN ELECTION TIME anything could happen.. like deprive voters not needed

CALIFORNIA BEGINS CUTTING POWER TO 361,000 CUSTOMERS AS FIRE RISK SURGES

"This event looks particularly dangerous due to a combination..."

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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)

Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

ITALIANS RISE UP AGAINST "HEALTH DICTATORSHIP" AS COUNTRY MOVES TOWARD NEW LOCKDOWN