ND
NOV 3 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
"During
this cold stretch, temperatures may average 10-20 degree F below normal for
most of the Northeast, including the major cities."
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ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
The Fed cut rates, the ECB officially launched QE, and a parade of
administration officials touted progress on the ever elusive China trade deal
for the 100th time and voila: Markets breaking out to new highs. But is the breakout a fake out?
Let’s explore some uncomfortable facts, charts and
perspectives.
Firstly, and don’t laugh too much, let’s at least mention
fundamentals.
GDP growth keeps slowing:
Earlier
this week, the Commerce Department released Q3 GDP figures, which showed a
marked slowdown year over year compared to Q3 2018. Real GDP growth has slowed
this year from 2.9% to 1.9%. Personal consumption has slowed from 3.5% to 2.9%.
Services have slowed from 3.4% to 1.7%. And gross private investment slowed
from 13.7% to negative 1.5%.
On Friday,
the same day markets broke to new highs the Atlanta Fed pegged Q4 GDP at 1.1%
while the New York Fed Nowcast dropped their Q4 GDP growth projection to 0.8%.
Now show me some history where markets sustained new all
time highs with 1% GDP growth in Q4. Best of luck.
On Thursday the Chicago PMI missed
expectations hard coming in at 43.2 versus 47 expected:
See Chart:
Chicago purchasing Manager Index
And on Friday ISM manufacturing also shows continued
contraction at 48.3% albeit a slight improvement over September which came in
at 47.8%.
The cheers on Friday? Supposedly the employment report as it
beat lowered expectations, but nevertheless jobs growth remains in a steady
trend of slowing growth.
Most notable private employment
growth has been sinking all year:
See Chart:
But none of this matters to this stock market at this stage,
never mind that the jobs market is a lagging indicator.
Why doesn’t anything fundamental matter? The US Federal
Reserve. As S&P companies are now reporting their 3rd quarterly decline in
earnings the multiple expansion machine of 2019 continues unabated and is the
primary rationale for the bull case: Synchronized global monetary easing will
continue to float markets to new highs according to JP Morgan strategists.
This may well be the case or it may not.
Let there be no mistake: The Fed
under Jay Powell, is the prime price discovery mechanism of this market. Who
are you going to believe? Me or your own lying eyes?
See Chart:
In January Powell propelled markets
higher to the tune of over 3.5% in one day on his “flexible” speech. And
every single corrective activity this year has found a sudden end in the warm
arms of uncle Fed. The March pullback ended on the
heels of Jay Powell’s 60 Minute interview. The May
correction ended when Jay Powell signaled readiness to act at the
beginning of June. And act he did. He cut in July, but
it didn’t quite work as planned. Markets sold off. But fear not. On August 23rd, amid great market uncertainty, Jay Powell
signaled more rate cuts to come and markets rallied. And in September he delivered with a second rate
cut, but again markets sold off. What a disappointment.
More firepower was needed as suddenly overnight rates spiked
and repo activities were launched in the middle of September. But it wasn’t enough. Markets sold off into the beginning of
October.
What did Powell do? He launched $60B
per month in “not QE” at the beginning of
October. Markets haven’t had a single down
week since. And this week they cut cut rates again.
Look at the balance sheet since
September. Fed gone wild:
Sve Heinrich:
Fed balance sheet now north of $4
trillion again increasing by over $261 billion in just 2 months. That's $1.566 trillion on an annualized
basis.
But remember it's not QE because the Fed said so.
But remember it's not QE because the Fed said so.
See Chart:
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That’s
great for today’s asset owners, especially those close to retirement. It is
much less good for anyone trying to save, invest or manage well into the
future, who face an increasingly barren return landscape.
See Chart:
Portafolio Return (Ann.)
If we put this in terms of portfolio
theory, our long-run return
assumptions suggest an unusually low ‘efficient frontier’ for portfolio
construction.
An important caveat here is that expected returns for the market have looked low
before, only to be bailed out, so to speak, as central banks eased policy and
pushed prices up ever higher. But it’s important to remember that these higher prices are simply
pulling forward ever more future return to the present.
Indeed, we think that there remains an underappreciation of
the costs of easy policy and its pull-forward of returns; it is not a free
lunch:
- First, by pressuring insurance and pension solvency, low rates, ironically, may drive less ability to take risk through traditional higher-beta assets, such as equities.
- Second, for investors who are able to move out the risk curve, low return in public equity and bond markets drives more money into illiquid corners of the market.
- Third, by confronting individual investors with low returns, it increases the pressure to save more to hit a given level of retirement savings, potentially one reason why the savings rate in developed markets remains stubbornly high.
Do any markets offer a better long-run story? We’d
highlight two: UK EQUITIES, which trade at a historically large discount to
global markets, show little sign of over-earning or margin extension versus
history and enjoy a high dividend yield, and EMERGING
MARKET HARD CURRENCY DEBT, which
offers higher expected long-run returns than other bond assets of similar
volatility, on our framework.
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Freight railroads, along with Class 8
trucking, have long
been used as a gauge of the country's economic health...
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Someone is not telling the truth...
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
I’ve noticed some distortion & sabotage in naming the
graphics. See source at the end
...given the ongoing growth of
government taxation, spending, and regulation, it should be abundantly
clear that we are hardly living in an age of "market fundamentalism,"
laissez-faire libertarianism, or policymakers who "worship" the
market.
Federal spending and
federal taxation in the United States set new records in 2019. And the
federal budget
deficit swelled to more than a trillion dollars. Europe is in the middle
of an
enormous spending binge. But apparently hard-core laissez-faire libertarian
purists have taken over the world's governments.
The neoliberal takeover is so complete, in fact, that we're
told neoliberals are the
ones really running the Labour Party. Meanwhile,
sociologist Lawrence Busch informs us of a
"neoliberal takeover" of higher education. "Free-market
fundamentalists," Busch contends, have transformed
America's colleges and universities into swamps of capitalist obeisance.
By What Metric?
By what measure are governments getting smaller, weaker, and
less involved in the daily lives of human beings?
In this country, at least, this case certainly can't be made
by consulting the data on government taxation and spending.
From 1960 to 2018, federal tax
receipts per capita increased from $3,523 to $5,973, an
increase of 70 percent.
See Chart:
Combined FED, State & local Tax Receipts Per Capita , 2018 $
Combining state and local taxation with federal taxes, the increase is even larger. Taxation per
capita at all levels combined grew 118 percent from $5,247 in 1960 to
$11,461 in 2018.
The size and scope of government
isn't just growing to reflect population changes. After all, the US
population only grew 81 percent from 1960 to 2018. And the federal government,
embroiled in a global cold war amidst a rising tide of social programs, wasn't exactly vanishingly small in 1960.
See Chart:
FED Net Outlays Per Capita , 2018
Fueled by huge deficits, federal
spending has outpaced tax collections. Per capita federal spending increased by
191 percent from 1960 to 2018, climbing from $4,300 to $12,545.
See Chart;
So, given that spending and taxation are at or are near
all-time highs right now, where exactly is this takeover by laissez-faire
libertarians we keep hearing about?
It's certainly not in the regulatory side of the government.
The number of pages published in the Code of Federal
Regulations increased
710 percent from 1960 to 2018, and 37 percent over the past twenty years.
Every additional page represents new regulations, new rules, new punishments,
and new fees. These are costs employers must contend with, and consumers must
ultimately pay for. Protectionists who think that
manufacturers would flock to the United States were it not not low tariffs
might consider the regulatory burden placed on employers by our own domestic
policies.
See Chart:
Codes of FED Regulations: Total
pages & Volumes
Both staffing and budgets for federal regulatory agencies
continue to balloon. The combined budgets for federal regulatory agencies have
more than tripled over the past 40 years, rising from under 20 billion in 1978
to 65 billion today.
Part of this has been to pay
salaries for the ever growing army of federal employees. Employees at regulatory agencies doubled over
the past forty years, rising from 140,000 full-time equivalent positions
in 1978 to 280,000 today.
See Chart:
Staffing at Regulatory Agencies
The US
population increased by 47 percent during that time.
But given the
ongoing growth of government taxation, spending, and regulation, it should be abundantly clear that we are hardly living in an
age of "market fundamentalism," laissez-faire libertarianism, or
policymakers who "worship" the market. If anything, trends
appear to be moving in exactly the opposite direction.
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It’s all a Ponzi scheme, in other words. And like every
Ponzi scheme, it will eventually run out of new victims to exploit, causing it
to catastrophically implode...
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The Military Intelligence Complex has been redefined as career bureaucrats 'just' doing their patriotic
duty...
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"He’s
there to do the dirty work of
the deep state..."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
"QE,
the way it has been restructured resembles an antibiotic that has stopped
working because the bacteria have grown adapted to it."
Astonishingly, central bankers always wait until after they
quit their job to drop truth bombs about how their
destructive policies are leading to the next financial crash.
See Chart;
WORLD GDP
And it's not just one ex-central
banker who is sounding the alarm about monetary policy's inability to save the
world from the next financial crisis, Greece's former finance head Yanis
Varoufakis told CNBC last
week that the European Central Bank's (ECB) bond-buying
program is no longer enough to save the Eurozone from a collapse.
"QE, the way it has been
restructured resembles an antibiotic that has stopped working because the
bacteria have grown adapted to it," Varoufakis
said.
The ECB first unveiled its bond-buying program in 2015,
which led to a partial recovery through mid-2018. But with too much debt and no
innovation in monetary policy, the ECB, along with
other central bankers and their respected countries across the world, have
entered a period where toolkits might not be able to ward off the next crisis
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Another US’ story-tell on Al-Baghdadi. He is not death..
where they have it? Is a Key Q
A car
bomb exploded in northern Syria killing 13 and wounding 20. The blast on
Saturday ripped through a crowded market in Tal Abyad, a town recently occupied
by Turkish-backed militant proxies.
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Now US + allies can continue
terrorism in Syria in the name od Al-Baghdadi
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Same game playing with same ball: Turkish’ ball (manufactured by NATO)
IF Turkey say the truth later on, they will be expelled from
NATO. That is a terrorist Thr
American
troops traveling toward Iraq attacked by Turkish forces on Sunday...
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I’m not saying that RU attacked US forces in defense of
Syria. In my opinion Syria have enough to defend their Nation-sovereignty. The
key Qt is: Does oil stalled by US in
Syria help to pay the price of US soldiers killed & about to be killed over there? It is clear that US don’t care for ethics during
war-time. The principal “business is business” always prevail. If US soldiers
die, we’ve heroes. SO, all we will have for future memory: RIP USA, the nation of ‘heroes’ who die in defense of PENTA, NATO & billonaries who profited from our wars
abroad.
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Our ‘hero” pilots of US B-52 Bomber didn’t know that
“Turkish attacked “ US soldiers
Russian
military news source admitted airbase "caught off guard" by B-52
bomber...
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O es que el Imperio USA no se traga ni sus propias mentiras. Si fueron
los turkos lo que atacaron soldados USA en Syria, por que no enviaron el bombardero B-52 al
territorio turko?. Los RU fueron más sinceros: no estuvimos preparados para
este posible ataque nuclear. Gracias por el aviso. De ahora en adelante
estaremos bien alertas.
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Washington’s basic purpose in
deploying the US forces in oil and natural gas fields of Deir al-Zor
governorate is to deny the valuable
source of income to its other main rival in the region, Damascus.
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China no
necesita del US, le basta el Pacto Shanghái, Por que resucitaria este muerto?
Some of the
proposed venues: Iowa, Alaska, Hawaii... although the Doral would surely be perfect.
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Ni siquiera
en territorio neutral.. que arrogancia estúpida. Yo sugiero que sea en “El Tunal” de MX.. entonces podrían cantar juntos “me he de comer esa tuna
aunque me espine la mano”. Pero tomando en serio la cosa, no creo que China debe resucitar este muerto.
El “LAZARO LEVANTATE” no funcionaria con Trump. Lazaro tenia solo 3 dias de
muerto y este ya tiene 30 ( Lea mis informes de la Econ Americana escrita por
Americanos sobre el mes de Octubre).
Este cadáver esta recontra podrido por dentro, se parece a los “huevos hueros”:
blancos por fuera y podridos por dentro.
Hueros? Por que les dicen hueros a
usanos como Trump? Solo
Jesús lo sabe y no creo que le gustaria resucitarlo.
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If we put ourselves in the shoes of the Chinese negotiators, we realize
there's no need to sign a deal at
all...
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SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n
GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion
via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Trump dice que el acuerdo comercial con China será firmado en algún lugar de EE.UU.
- Rusia: "Combatientes proturcos" abren fuego contra un convoy estadounidense que se dirigía a Irak
- "Es como un póster gigante de reclutamiento para el EI": Biden critica la decisión de Trump de "proteger" los campos petroleros de Siria
- Arabia Saudita anuncia la salida a bolsa de su petrolera Saudi Aramco
- Cuba: "La OEA se consolida como instrumento de presión política de EE.UU."
- 23 muertos y 1.300 heridos: durante las protestas en Chile
- VEN: expulsa diplomát salvadoreños "en apego al principio de reciprocidad"
- Perú: El Tribunal Constituc rechazó cancelar las elecci parlament anticipadas
- Keiser Report La política chilena: "Llevar al país a la quiebra, sangrar a la clase media y recompensa a la cleptocracia"
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EL RESTO
PARA MAÑANA
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