ND
NOV 28 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
What is ‘real corporate profit? Not the one obtained via speculation in WS
If one
looks at true corporate profits stripped of all adjustments, revisions and
addbacks, a very ugly picture emerges: one where US corporate profitability is
the worst since the financial crisis.
…..
Real Corporate profits must come
from real productive activities & from
associated investors (coops) that do
consider PUBLIC NEED (at least health, education & house
for all) not
only the PRIVATE GREED (even if pay taxes).
See Chart:
…
See more interesting chart at:
….
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Without real top or bottom line growth the last half decade, corporate strength has been vastly
overestimated...
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has revised its
preliminary estimate of GDP. That can only mean one thing: time to look at
corporate profits again. Included along with the recalculated headline output
estimate is the BEA’s first run of profit figures. If you are Jay Powell, you aren’t going to like
what you find.
First, real GDP in the third quarter
was practically unchanged. Revised from around 1.90% (continuously compounded
annual rate of change) to a touch above 2.10%, either of those estimates are
pretty much equivalent to the unrevised 1.99% growth believed to have taken
place in Q2.
See Chart:
Eurodollar Disruption ; picks and
troughs
Still the slowdown from 2017-18. But what everyone wants to
know is, what does this downshift really mean? Did the US economy simply revert
to its (already
too low) mean potential after a minor reflation high last year?
Jay Powell and the official position says it is the former.
Buoyed by tax reform and slightly more favorable global conditions (he says),
2018 was equivalent to a very small sugar rush. Taking on some unknown but
“transitory” cross currents late in the year, as 2019 wears on the
unflinchingly strong labor market will more and more support the economy
keeping it around average at worst.
In order for that to happen, though,
the labor market has to actually be strong. Not just the unemployment rate,
either.
See Chart:
Profits Revisions
That’s where corporate profits come in. As much as anything,
the general willingness of businesses in the US (as anywhere else) to add more
labor is related to both the top and bottom lines of their income statements.
Revenue growth driving profit growth means a lot more net hiring.
No revenue growth and therefore profit problems, a lot less.
I’m not really going out on a limb here, illustrating nothing more than the
basics you already know quite well.
As economic profits accelerated in the past, the rate of
payroll expansions did, too. This isn’t rocket science.
See Chart:
Labor Market Growth Rates by the
calendar Year
What the
BEA’s income accounts have been suggesting is that they aren’t accelerating,
having reached a peak rate all the way back in 2014 (which
wasn’t all that high, even though it added up to the “best jobs market in
decades”). Since, profit growth has been at best stagnant (depending upon the
BEA series) and at worst declining.
See Chart:
Unsurprisingly, as you can see above, that near exactly
matches what the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been consistently
reporting for years as far as its Establishment Survey has been concerned. The
only difference is that this has gone unreported by the mainstream media which
continuously described the situation as “robust” no matter how much it wasn’t.
See Chart:
The labor
market is already materially weaker this year than it was in reality last year.
And I mean the actual payroll gains which won’t be revealed until this upcoming
February. As the FOMC even
admitted at its last policy meeting, 2018 wasn’t nearly as good as
advertised as far as the labor market was concerned, and 2019 is in all
likelihood to be materially weaker still.
What the Federal Reserve Chairman does influence instead is
stock market valuations.
At the NYSE, the legend of the “maestro” refuses to die. Partly because of how corporate boardrooms react to his
schtick as well as the temporary effects of “tax reform”, buying back shares as
fast as possible, in macro terms economic earnings don’t ever rise while share
prices absolutely do.
See Chart:
Profits & Valuations
Of course,
the more reasonable interpretation is that given now four downturns meaning three
false dawns the likelihood of any actual recovery and acceleration is
exceedingly small. If it was going to, it would have long before
now. One false dawn (Euro$ #2) may be random, two starts to look like a pattern
(Euro$ #3), so three (Euro$ #4) cannot be an overly strong labor market which
will finally deliver the macro goods in a timely fashion.
That boom
will (somehow) create the earnings.
The lack of macro growth and therefore profits, though, has
left Corporate America in a precarious position. Top heavy. Without real top or bottom line
growth the last half decade, corporate strength has been vastly overestimated. That is why this year and
last the
sudden mainstream recognition of “zombie”
companies who wouldn’t exist if
there had been actual growth
derived from an actual boom.
Where that becomes a much thornier issue is if or when these zombie-like businesses are
forced to confront the reality of their true bottom-line situations –
especially if the BEA is right about where those are heading. Recession is a
surefire way for that to happen, but it needn’t go that far.
The zombie
stock bubble? Perhaps the most fitting description.
….
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... in the process of explaining national debt, St.Louis Fed's Wolla
and Frerking stumble into an ugly truth -Federal Reserve money printing can destroy a country’s economy.
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Thanksgiving was the 1st massacre of native
Americans by pilgrims corroded by nasty habits brought from Europe. Native gave
them a turkey to welcome to America..
"I'm truly humbled that you've blessed me with the Trump presidency, the patriarchy, the laws of
economics, and biological facts to rage against..."
….
We celebrate that welcome, the human spirit of the natives. We are
shame from the killing the pilgrims perpetrate on natives.
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“Thanksgiving is, foundationally speaking, a celebration of the ongoing genocide against native peoples and cultures across
the globe,”
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The real decolonization of thanksgiving is to compensate their native
welcome to America to foreigners by
offering natives families a National Fund to assure basic needs starting with free education and health for all of them. We should extend also this
compensation to native americans living in the shore of the Amazon & other
big revers in South America. They need institutional laws to assure basic
Health Centers for all of them plus free
education at all levels. I was volunteer in ALFIN (alfabetizacion integral) in the jungle of Peru
and I was amazed by the humanity of the Ashanincas tribe. The welcome they gave
to me was far beyond the turkey given by the natives to pilgrims in North America.
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The rise of zombie developers across Manhattan is inevitable...
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"The fact that pork
from one of the nation's largest retailers contains bacteria
resistant to antibiotics critically important to human health is particularly alarming and should raise
concerns."
….
We ‘re weak to any bacteria –not just Walmart pork, because eating
wrong food to the point of obesity.
Obesity is the home depot of many diseases. Fortunately we create our own anti-bacteria
if our heath system is changed with the
help of Personal doctors & internet support like Mayo Clinic. Since we
create our own alcohol in our body a half glass of red wine in the evening
helps a lot, especially if it is merlot. More than a halve is not healthy.
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
WE are also stunned
by the IMF role in helping to recycled a
USD made of thing air
Why stop there? Just give the ECB responsibility for determining which
companies have done enough in terms of gender and transgender diversity, social
inclusiveness, and which support the European dream most
enthusiastically…"
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"Wednesday’s bill signing by Mr. Trump came and went
without any real action."
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Historic
first to involve 'massive joint drills' next month in the Indian Ocean.
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... you might be surprised to know that Americans consume far less energy on Thanksgiving than on just any old
Thursday - despite the fact that turkeys take nearly all night in
the oven to cook.
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“Whoever loses the fight
would suffer a fatal blow, unless the two reach a settlement. this will also be a setback
for automakers.”
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Talk don’t help much, action do: BRING OUR TROOPS HOME!
TRUMP
MAKES SURPRISE THANKSGIVING VISIT TO US TROOPS IN AFGHANISTAN, SAYS TALIBAN
TALKS HAVE RESUMED
"The Taliban wants to make a
deal and we’re meeting with them and we’re saying it has to be a cease-fire,
and they didn’t want to do a cease-fire and now they want to do a cease-fire -
I believe it’ll probably work out that way,"
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
- Almost Half of EU States Give No-Go to New
Rule Requiring Tech Giants to Reveal Real Incomes & Taxes
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
COL: ¡Nos quitaron hasta el
miedo! Violeta Guetnamova
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ALAI NET ORG
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RT EN ESPAÑOL
- Gobierno de facto de
Bolivia abroga decreto que eximía a las Fuerzas Armadas de responsabilidad
penal https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/335217-gobierno-facto-bolivia-abroga-decreto
- Lacalle Pou gana
oficialmente las elecciones de Uruguay y pone fin a 15 años del Frente Amplio https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/334946-lacalle-pou-gana-elecciones-uruguay
- Guaidó despide a su
'enviado' en Colombia sin que aún se aclare el desfalco del dinero para la
"ayuda humanitaria" en Cúcuta https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/335163-guaido-despide-enviado-colombia-desfalco-dinero
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COUNTER
PUNCH
Analysis
on US Politics & Geopolitics
Vicente Navarro What
is Happening in Spain?
Jeff Mackler and Lazaro Monteverde Bolivia:
Anatomy of a Coup
Ellen Taylor Evo
Morales and the Rights of Mother Earth
Natalie Dowzicky When
Trump Became Messiah to the American Right
Thomas Knapp Trump
Sentences Future War Criminals to Death
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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