ND
NOV 18 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
BEST official story-tell on our economy: OR:
How we lost the “private greed for all”
Authored by Michael Cembalest, CIO JPMorgan Private Bank
DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach shares
the dubious award for 'worst' Armageddonist, with none other than Dr.Doom -
Nouriel Roubini...
…
The ethical principle of “private greed”:
“JUST REMEMBER IF GREED IS
GOOD, EXTREME GREED MUST BE AWESOME FOR EVERYONE...” [[ Can we call this:
Opium dream of Billionaires ]]
As bearish-biased
analysts, strategists, and investors throw in the towel amid the
market's incessant FOMO-driven melt-up in the face of record global policy
uncertainty, declining earnings, and a global economy showing anything but
'troughing'; it seems JPMorgan's Asset
Management group has decided now is the time to name names and call
out the last decade's so-called "Armageddonists"...
While
recessions and bear markets are a fact of life, something peculiar happened
after the Global Financial Crisis: the rise of the Armageddonists, which refers to the market-watchers,
forecasters and money managers whose apocalyptic comments spread like wildfire
in print and online financial news.
I also
understand that mega-bearish news appeals to human negativity bias, a
topic examined by Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman in his 2011 book on the
brain and human survival instincts, by political scientist Stuart Soroka who
has illustrated the inverse relationship between magazine sales and the
positivity of a magazine’s cover, and in a 2014 experiment in which a city
newspaper lost two thirds of its readers on a day when it deliberately only
published positive news. That said, what are the
consequences for investors that reacted to dire Armageddonist predictions which
have flooded the airwaves and internet since 2010?
See Chart:
A History of S&P 500 bear markets
We pulled together
comments made by well known Armageddonists since 2010, a few of whom are on record as having anticipated the prior
bear market and recession.
See Table:
We
measured the impact on an investor deciding to shift a dollar from equities to
diversified government, mortgage-backed and corporate bonds after reading the
post-2010 comments. To be clear,
this isn’t about whether the Armageddonist at some point became more
optimistic. This chart is about the opportunity loss
for investors that acted upon seeing their comments at the time. One
example: $1 shifted from equities to bonds in 2014 in response to mega-bearish
commentary would have underperformed equities by around 40% as the S&P 500,
propelled more by earnings growth than by multiple expansion, rolled on.
See Chart:
The consequences of listening to Armageddonists, 2010-2019
One
day, of course, Armageddonists will be rewarded with a recession.
Partly as a consequence of the
China-US Trade War, equity outperformance vs bonds reached a peak in
early 2018 and has been treading water since; CEO Confidence has plunged to its
lowest level since the financial crisis; the US is now in an earnings
recession; and 67% of respondents to the Duke CFO Survey believe the US will be
in recession by the end of 2020 (despite all of this, institutional investor
positioning in equity futures is close to its highest/most bullish level since
2007). In any case, for investors that reacted to Armageddonist
comments, the larger issue is this: the next recession and bear market will
have to be quite severe to earn back what was sacrificed along the way. Using rough math, a
sustained, multi-year bear market with 35%-45% declines from peak levels would
be needed to reverse many of the opportunity losses shown in the chart above.
HOW SEVERE WILL
THE NEXT BEAR MARKET BE?
I believe
it won’t be as bad as the prior two, due to the following:
- a reduction in global economic imbalances,
- higher levels of capital and decreased funding risks in US and European banks,
- stronger balance sheet fundamentals of US households,
- reduced risk in most Emerging Markets due to higher levels of foreign exchange reserves and less reliance on foreign capital,
- and the low level of new US equity supply since buybacks and M&A have exceeded new equity issuance for the last five years.
See Charts:
Having said all that, who could have seen this coming?
See Chart:
Of course, we suspect the fact that Michael Cembalest has
decided to issue this report, "outing" the Armageddonists, will only
fuel the calls for a top in complacency... just remember if greed is
good, extreme greed must be awesome for everyone...
See Chart:
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Neo-nazis al attack:
...just enough time for Comey and Clapper to book their flights to
Caracas.
….
Is there a place they can go if their strategy fails? Where neonazis are in power to protect our parasites? We call neo-nazis to those
parasites
====
Parrots war?
"Politico
and Bertrand colluded, collaborated and conspired with Schiff to defame Kash."
====
Civil war.. a new normal?
The real grievance is the
sense that an unresponsive elite are sucking up all the available wealth,
leaving the vast majority with (at best) zero upward mobility and at
worst a return to the servitude
their parents only recently escaped...
THIS IS GETTING
RIDICULOUS.
Every few days another country blows up, as their citizens
take to the streets with little warning and no apparent interest in a quick
settlement. Here’s the first part of the “War…Civil
Unrest” section of today’s DollarCollapse.com links list. As you can see, the
peasants have grabbed their pitchforks and besieged their betters on four
continents over a wide range of issues, which implies that the stated
cause in each case is just an excuse.
See List of FACTS:
The real grievance is the sense that an
unresponsive elite are sucking up all the available wealth, leaving the vast
majority with (at best) zero upward mobility and at worst a return to the
servitude their parents only recently escaped. To test the truth of this, watch what happens
when a chastened government caves on the initial issue — and instead of heading
back home the protesters ramp it up.
Who even remembers what pulled France’s Yellow Vests into
the streets? The Macron government has spent months apologizing and offering
big new spending programs aimed at the protesters’ stated concerns. Yet today’s
headline is about water cannons and flipped cars. Hong Kong repealed the law
that ignited its riots back in June, yet today the story is protesters shooting
police with arrows (!) and Chinese soldiers deploying to help “clean up the
streets.” Uh huh.
WHY IS THIS
HAPPENING NOW?
Because artificially easy money enriches the
people who own the stocks, bonds and real estate that rise in value when interest
rates go down. This expands the already painfully wide gap between rich and
poor and turns the already high level of background resentment into a powder
keg. Then it’s just a matter of a provocation. And there’s always another
provocation coming.
Looked at this way, the current wave of unrest is not easily
fixed because the immediate remedy is even more easy money. In other words, reinstate the gas price subsidy and borrow whatever is
necessary to cover the cost. Or increase welfare spending to make life slightly
easier for protesters, at the cost of higher deficits. Then cut interest
rates to finance all the new debt.
The result? Even more new money flowing into the elite via rising
financial asset prices. Which further widens the gap between rich and poor.
Not a single government is responding to protests with “Ok, we’ll take a bunch of real wealth from the oligarchs and
give it to the protesters.” That solution obviously won’t fly with the various versions of deep state/military
industrial complex that are in charge out there. Easy money, IN
CONTRAST:
1) is technically
doable,
2) appears at first glance to help the 99%, and
3) actually further
enriches the 1%.
So no one objects, the problem gets worse, and the next round of unrest is even
bigger.
This may not be
immediately apparent, but most people will get it
eventually, by which time a peaceful solution will be far out of reach. Civil
unrest is our new normal.
….
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"At the President's invitation, Chair Powell met with the
President and the Treasury Secretary Monday morning at the White House to
discuss the economy, growth, employment and inflation."
====
Marihuana is not addicted IF cultivated under the sun.. IT
only boost your senses
Gateway
drug, eh?
…..
IF you abused daily of course it
could became addicted like coffee. The Econ, political & war-crisis that destroy
families-union do have negative psychol effects on personality (young teens specially):
that create addictions. But natural Marihuana in itself doesn’t. What happens is that in
the US most marihuana is cultivated inside attics of a house and it is very
weak.. do not have power to boost senses, then they added crack (the poison or venom that kills DNA) . That is
is a crime, for that reason I agree to prohibit this type of Marihuana. In the shorts of the
Amazon there is natural marihuana that is very powerful, it got a red flower at
the top of the plant if exposure to sun, that is called ‘monio rojo’ (not other
natural marihuana got it, I guess is the amazon jungle context that create this
red flower, said a French lady who use to expend her 15 days -vacation time in
Quillabamba-Cusco-Peru. She added 2 little petals from the red flower and cover
it with 2 dried leaves of marihuana
& she got 3-4 hours of dreams under the compass of classic music. That was
her secret). With natural-regular marihuana you can have
the same 3 hours inside a concert of classic music with 3 dried leaves, you
create your own ‘pitillo’ small
cigarette. In 5-10 min your star getting effect
and you go to the concert. Not smell & nothing to denounce that you
are flying & walking on the moon. BUT you can’t
have same effect with fake marithuana cultivated in the attics of a house.
IF you have a farm or a big back-yard in your house you can have natural
marihuama, all this plant need is exposure to daily sun. This marihuana should NOT
be prohibited. Alcohol –other than Merlot that make thin your blood
& circulation to your brain - should be prohibited. Hugo Adan
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Fossil fuel combustion is obsolete:
kill watter & farmers in fracking-perforation areas; create car pollution
(electric & new tech car can erase most polluter cars) and tectonic plaques
has been weaken because oil-gas exploration (earthquakes are expected ) & if WW3 comes, Yellowstone
will blow up just because chain reaction from nearest nuke silos explosion..
that is the main US target if the PENTA & NATO initiates WW3.
The oil and gas industry used to be untouchable. It’s not
anymore...
…..
The key QT is: who is
not enemy of Oil & Gas = Fossil fuel
combustion, knowing that it put at risk our life.. the life of our
entire nations.. worse if we initiate WW3. The only
real friends of OIL & GAS are 1-the super-billionaires who profit
from such business, starting with the brothers Koch and 2-the top-layers of bureaucracy in PENTA and NATO plus 3-d-military industrial complex
I did mention 3 of the biggest friends of Oil
& Gas… you mention the rest.
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
...quid pro quo?
After plunging in August (US
foreign net transactions saw a $41 billion outflow - the biggest monthly
outflow since Dec 2018), September
data showed a notable $49.47 billion rebound in flows...
See Chart:
US NET Foreign Transaction Flows
Only Treasuries saw net selling
- Foreign net selling of Treasuries at $34.3b
- Foreign net buying of equities at $8.8b
- Foreign net buying of corporate debt at $14.9b
- Foreign net buying of agency debt at $26b
See Chart:
Foreign net transaction
of US Treasuries
Rather notably Japan, after buying the most Treasuries since
2013 in August, dumped $28.9 billion in September - its biggest monthly cut in
Treasury reserves ever...
See Chart:
Japan Holding of US Treasuries
China
dumped Treasuries for the sixth month in the last seven to its lowest level of holdings since May 2017...
See Chart:
China Holding of US Treasury
And finally, we note that Israel continues to be an active buyer of US bonds
(buying for the fifth of the last six months to a new record high)...
...quid
pro quo?
The trend continues - albeit with a
slowdown in the last month or two - as Treasury holdings tumble worldwide, gold reserves have been rising...
See Chart:
Global
Gold Holdings
….
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NOTE RELATED:
From Hugo Adan
JA & China are the largest holders of US Treasuries .
What could happen when they dumped our US-T?
China
and Japan dumped U.S. Treasuries the most in August.
... In the big-picture
view, this mean that the world is moving away from the US
dollar.
“U.S. Treasuries slumped in September 2018, as the 10-year
Treasury yield breached 3.2%, worrying
investors that could cause equities to reassess their valuations. If yields rise as a result of economic growth
is fine, it is deemed positive for equities. However,
any sudden or relentless move higher on the back of inflation creates tightening financial conditions,
equities take as a headwind -- and investors get worried. But there is
something more sinister behind the move seen in U.S. bonds in September. Japan
and Russia are all sellers & they
selling more vs. Saudi Arabia as buyer & they are buying lesss. This has driven the global share of USD reserves to its
lowest since 2013. Now the USD is
going down and there are “signs ” that “inflation is
overheating.".
According to investopedia the dumping of US Treasury will
affect the whole US Treasury Yield panorama and create dollar devaluation in
the world market. (Devaluation leads to Capitulation). As shown on the chart of
the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield,
this benchmark yield has not hit such depths since October of 2016. Where do
yields go from here? If trade fears increase further, we could potentially be
seeing a retest of the 1.36%-area lows of 2016.
FACT: China don’t
want USD
& the US don want Yuans.
SOLUTION : a gold - currency for Trade Deals
See Chart:
US 10-Y Treasury Yield
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Nuclear generation in the US and France faces contrasting challenges
of power market prices and safety concerns, as this week’s graphics show...
====
"We are no longer
interested in such meetings that provide us no benefit."
====
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus
on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Explosions Reported Near Damascus Airport -
State Media US must move out of Sy
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
New red in Spanish News:
with Videos
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REBELION:
MX:
Urgente Soberanía alimentaria para el pueblo
España Por qué la ultraderecha crece en España Vicenç Navarro
España Por qué la ultraderecha crece en España Vicenç Navarro
====
ALAI NET
====
RT EN
ESPAÑOL
Evo: "Mesa, Camacho y Áñez tienen miedo de que
vuelva para pacificar el país porque quieren escarmentar al pueblo" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/334122-morales-mesa-camacho-anez-tener-miedo-volver-pacificar-pais
...
Dispersan con gases lacrimógenos a manifestantes que marchaban en Bolivia
por el retorno de Evo Morales https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/334125-fuerzas-seguridad-emplean-agentes-quimicos-bolivia
...
Disturbios y choques con carabineros en el segundo 'superlunes' de
protestas en Chile a pesar del acuerdo para una nueva Constitución https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/334096-superlunes-marchas-chile-acuerdo-constitucion
…
Gobierno de facto de Bolivia destina 5 millones de dólares para
"equipar" a las FF.AA. en medio de denuncias por brutal represión de
las protestas https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/334121-bolivia-34-millones-equipamiento-ffaa
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
-Jewish settlements not illegal, Pompeo
announces in historic US policy shift
By ICH and Agencies U.S. Contravenes International law
By ICH and Agencies U.S. Contravenes International law
-Plundering Iraq By Eric Margolis
-OPCW Scandal Keeps Unfolding. Here’s Why No
One’s Talking About It.
By Caitlin Johnstone
By Caitlin Johnstone
-America’s Arms Sales Addiction By William D. Hartung
-How to Save the Planet and Ourselves By Chris Hedges
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Laura
Flanders SayHerName,
Impeachment, and a Hawk
Bill
Hatch A New Silence
Olivia
Arigho-Stiles Protestors
Massacred in Post-Coup Bolivia
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
-Fight
Bolivia’s Coup, The Resistance: Indigenous Workers Build Self Defense
Committees. By Tatiana Cozzarelli
and Ana Rivera,
-Conflict
of Interest: Julian Assange’s Judge and Her Husband’s Links to the British
Military Establishment Exposed by WikiLeaks By Mark Curtis and
Matt Kennard,
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
-Massacre
in Cochabamba: Anti-Indigenous Violence Escalates as Mass Protests Denounce
Coup in Bolivia
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PRESS TV
Middle East n world news
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