DEC
5 17 SIT EC y POL
ND denuncia
debacle d Globaliz neoliberal y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Econ
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know
it, they documented with graphics
The
US Dollar is down over 9% year-to-date against a broad basket of the world's
fiat currencies, tumbled over 10% against gold, and has collapsed against Bitcoin; but, as
Bloomberg's Garfield Reynolds warns, the dollar's worst year since 2003 is about to
get "even grimmer" in 2018...
The one point of clarity coming out of Washington is that tax reform isn’t
about to save the dollar where Fed rate hikes have failed.
CFTC data showed dollar shorts
increased again in the second half of November after shrinking to the smallest level since June. That snapped a move that had suggested investors were about
to go net dollar-long.
The flattening of the
Treasuries curve -- with benchmark 10-year yields totally range-bound -- is
another vote of no-confidence.
This
time twelve months ago, markets were gearing up for the ’Year of the Dollar.’
That turned out badly, but the year ahead could be even bleaker now that its
fans have abandoned it.
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" My main fear as we entered 2017 was that the Fed
would tighten too much and too fast, pushing the economy into a deflationary
recession. I still think that’s the most likely
scenario.."
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Potential Achieved
Last week, the Commerce Department revised its third-quarter inflation-adjusted
GDP estimate to a 3.3% annualized pace. While that was good news, it also marked something ominous.
In addition to actual gross domestic product, economists track “Potential GDP.” That’s how fast the economy
is capable of growing, considering the number of available workers,
productivity, and other factors.
If subsequent data confirms last quarter’s 3.3% growth, it will mark the first time since 2007 the US economy
achieved “maximum sustainable output.”
The End Is Near
Actual GDP can’t stay above
potential GDP for long before bad things start happening. This chart proves it:
Here is the potential GDP
chart above, extrapolating the future as it would look with 3–4% growth over
the next decade.
I’m sorry this chart is so tall, but
that red triangle is necessary to project as much growth as the president
anticipates and that Congress says will pay for the tax cuts. The
smaller yellow fan below it is the less thrilling estimate of nonpartisan
economists.
In either case, to do what the Republicans predict, GDP must grow above
potential for years, unless potential GDP rises in a similarly spectacular
fashion.
That’s not impossible: a major technology breakthrough might
do it, say, a cure for
cancer that frees up more workers, or wearable supercomputers to make workers
more productive.
But just as likely, a recession, natural disaster, war, or other shock could
sharply reduce GDP. The projections above don’t
account for that possibility.
Booms Going “Boom”
Actual GDP can outpace potential
GDP at the end of a cycle, but by definition, such growth is unsustainable. The inputs to higher production—available workers,
productivity—can’t grow fast enough, so those booms end up going “boom.”
Now consider what else is happening.
The Federal Reserve is in tightening mode, both raising short-term interest rates and
reducing its massive balance sheet assets. Fed officials think the economy is
close to full employment, and they want to control inflation pressure before it
gets out of hand.
If this tax cut finally
passes -I don’t think it will- create anything like 3–4%
GDP growth. I think it will do the opposite, as
the US Treasury borrows hundreds of billions more dollars to cover deficit
spending. That will drive rates higher; not good for real estate or consumer
spending.
All that is happening
even if we get no surprises. War with North Korea, a NAFTA breakup,
Chinese banking crisis, a hard Brexit—any of those
could extinguish global growth.
My main fear as we entered 2017 was that the Fed would tighten too
much and too fast, pushing the economy into a deflationary recession. I
still think that’s the most likely scenario.
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Government
Watchdog Warns Market Crash Risk Rising: "One-Sixth Of All Hedge Funds Are
15x Leveraged"
"The top decile of macro and relative-value
hedge funds has been leveraged about 15 times in recent quarters. Combined, these funds account for more than $800 billion in gross assets, about one-sixth of
all hedge fund assets."
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Bitcoin is all the rage today, and as it
crosses over $10,000, a 10-bagger for the year, we should look at what it is, what it isn’t, and why
it’s become so popular...
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POLITICS
La seudo
democ y sist duopolico es obsoleto por
fraudulento y corrupto. Urge
cambiarlo
IMPOSSIBLE TO DENY that PEACE MOV are
behind these protests
More
than 600 demonstrations are planned at Verizon stores across the United States
on Thursday amid the Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC) plan to kill net
neutrality.
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WORLD ISSUES and M-East
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K- compet. D rest in limbo
IF CHINA FALLS THE US WILL BE NEXT
The warning signs from
the 2007-08 crisis exist in China's property market now - and other parts of its financial
system - bar one...
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In addition to the previous aggressive military
equipment..
The
US will deploy B-1B Lancer bombers over Korean Peninsula for joint aerial
drills with U.S. and South Korean fighters, Yonhap
News reports, citing
military authorities.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
US politics crisis: Trump captured by Deep state to reproduce
old cronyism without alter-plan
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Global Econ-Pol crisis leads to more business-wars: profiteers US-NATO under screen
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis, their internal conflicts n
chances of WW3
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Russiagate Becomes Israelgate By
Philip Giraldi
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The FBI's Perjury Trap Of The Century By David Stockman
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Walking into Armageddon By Paul Craig Roberts
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The American Empire’s Descent Into Dystopia By Chris Hedges
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Socialism, Capitalism and Health Care By James Petras
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Deep State Institutions That Make Up The
“Secret Government” By Arjun
Walia
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COUNTER PUNCH
Paul Craig Roberts
Plunder
Capitalism
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George Ochenski
Our
Dirty Double Standard for Corporate Polluters
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Lawrence Wittner
The
Peace Movement and Electoral Politics
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
The nasty business of US-NATO-Global-wars uncovered ..
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Russia
Banned From 2018 Olympics, Clean Athletes May Compete Under Neutral Flaghttps://sputniknews.com/sport/201712051059728210-ioc-decision-russia-olympics/
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RT SHOWS
World According to Jesse Return
of the Red Scare & John Kiriakou
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Latino America fight to break with collapsing Empire: leftist view on alternatives
Hist Arendt contra la historia Gilberto Lopes
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El
precio del Petroleo no es estable y el bitcoin fue inundado por espec US
Si
la fuerza del bitcoin reside en anonimato como evitar manip del petro
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Keiser Report Los mitos del 1%: un estado
empresarial neofeudal
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PRESS TV
Global situation described by Iranian observers.. Titles
distorted n incomplete sentences
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GOP
is ‘dead party, morally corrupt’: Fox News host Dems party too
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