AUG 4 16 SIT EC
y POL 1
ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
Far from a sign of good things for the economy as whole,
recently declining oil prices now tend to indicate a weakening economy that was
already in a weak state. It turns out that the oil
price and the economy are now in a very tight relationship, and we are going to
be seeing them together a lot for a long time to come.
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One of these things is not like
the others...
[ REAL INFLATION DATA ]
With The Fed's reported inflation hovering around 1.0% - enabling
monetary policy so easy, it could work in the Bunny Ranch - we thought the average joes and joannas of America might need
reminding of just what is devouring their wages...
Remember though, thank nice Mr.Obama for creating this
'tax' (silver lining - 'consuming' all that healthcare insurance will do
wonders to maintain the US GDP) and do not complain about how tough it is
'getting by' because that is cynical and you wouldn't
want to be labeled a realist doom-and-gloomer. Now shut up and eat your soylent
green.
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As the world awaits the next in the series of "most
important jobs numbers ever," which has now been shown as only relevant to
the degree by which it moves the S&P 500 higher (or god forbid lower), consensus expectations are for a goldilocks 180k gain in
jobs and flat 4.9% unemployment rate. The market will be looking to
see if the Fed's recent optimism surrounding labor market conditions (despite a collapse in their own LMCI)
are justified and if the employment figures of July and August demonstrate a
new trend in conjunction with June ahead of the September meeting... and of course the 'election adjustment'.
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The last few weeks
have seen an historic shift in
Americans' "comfort" levels. For the first time in 6 months, consumer confidence among black Americans is
higher than that of white Americans, having soared in the last two
weeks, during and following The DNC convention.
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Individual
tax/withholding receipts for the month of July – those tax and withholding
payments that come straight from wage earner pay stubs – are down 1.0% year
over year. YTD non-withheld tax receipts (such as those that come from “Gig
economy” workers) are down 6.5%, and July’s comp is 15% lower than a year ago.
Last, corporate tax receipts are down 11% YTD, and if
the current pace of these payments holds it will be the first negative comp
since 2011.
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Since the end of QE3
(Oct 2014), the broadest measure of the US equity market (NYSE Composite) is
modestly lower (-1.2%). However, 5 US stocks have soared an impressive 35%
since then. In fact, as Bloomberg reports,
the five biggest companies in the world by market value were all U.S. tech
companies (a feat that wasn't even achieved during the exuberant peaks
in the dot-com bubble in 2000).
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One of the biggest “lies”
in the financial world is that if you just invest your money in the markets
over the long-term, you will average
7, 8 or 10% a year. Asset-gatherers don't give enough credence to the long-term effects of the “when”
you start your investing cycle.
The primary problem is that investors DO NOT have 100-years to invest BEFORE
their disbursement cycle begins. Unfortunately, with stock valuations pushing the second highest level in
history, forward return expectations (before inflation, taxes, and expenses)
are extremely low.
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In the second
quarter, the Swiss National
Bank added $7.3 billion to its US equity portfolio, and according to its just filed
13-F, is now long a record $61.8 billion in
US stocks, up from $54.5 billion a month ago. In fact, rising from $41.3 billion in total US stock holdings as of
December 2015, this
means that the Swiss central bank increased its total US holdings by a record
50% in the first half of 2016.
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Various analysts
believe that the close correlation between the junk bonds and crude oil - which
have been together for quite some time - has now decoupled. Is this relationship
really over, or is this parting of ways only a temporary separation?
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In the second quarter
inventory subtracted 1.2%
from GDP. It was supposed
to add to GDP. When it didn’t, Bloomberg promptly noted that a rebound in inventory build-up will add to
third quarter GDP. It
won’t, because inventory-to-sales numbers
remain in the stratosphere.
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WTI Crude is up over
6% in 24 hours, since yesterday's surprise build (and production cut) as the
machines squeeze out an over-exuberant short positioning once again. However,
just as we saw last year around this time, Astenbach's infamous oil veteran Andy Hall is warning a "violent reversal higher" looms again
amid extreme positioning and potentially improving fundamentals.
Exaggerating the move further is the surge in the contango which has once again made sea-storage profitable,
sending yield-seeking traders into the carry trade (and squeezing shorts
further).
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Despite a small beat
in MoM data (-1.5% vs -1.9% exp), US factory orders plunged 5.6% YoY - the worst drop since September 2015. This extends the period of annual
contraction to 20 months - a record streak of declines in US history and one which has always,
without exception, coincided with recession...
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The insanity of the two
strategies to keep inflated asset prices alive is no hindrance to their
implementation. The collapse of asset inflation will implode all the
fiscal and financial promises based on ever-inflating assets and reveal the
unsustainability of the status quo's strategy of substituting debt and asset
bubbles for stagnating real income.
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Following Challenger
Gray's 2nd consecutive monthly rise in layoffs, appearing to resume its uptrend
from last year, initial jobless claims rose a modest 3k to 269k (slightly worse
than the expected 265k), still near 43 year lows...
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POLITICS
On this issue, the case is
overwhelming...
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Trump may be a
“bridge too far,” for some, but why are Republicans voting for Hillary Clinton? The fact is that this election has revealed the truth
about the US two-party system... There is only one party: pro-war and pro-technocratic (corporatist).
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“This bill is a travesty, an undemocratic
and discriminatory bill which preempts state laws, while offering no meaningful
labeling for GMOs.”
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Here’s your feel-good story of the day...
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ME & WORLD ISSUES
While US media
continues to hammer Trump for what 'uncited sources' are saying, European media notes that the commander of U.S. European
Command said allied nations must pay their fair share of defense costs to deter Russia in comments that support Republican presidential
nominee Donald Trump's tough talk on NATO.
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Corporate media
regularly attempts to present Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria as solely responsible for the ongoing conflict in the region.
The media does report on events that contradict this narrative - albeit
sparingly - but taken
together, these underreported details shine a new light on the conflict.
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Chris
Hedges vs. Robert Reich on Clinton, Third Parties, Capitalism & Next Steps
for Sanders Backers
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
What if U.S. Election 2016 Fails to Give
Either Presidential Candidate 270 Electoral Votes? The Twelfth Amendment Sets
In… By Michael T. Bucci
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Republican Presidential Campaign in Crisis:
Republican National Committee Could Pressure Trump To Withdraw from the Race By Patrick Martin
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Fighting “Voter Suppression”, Accuracy of
Voting Machines: California Court Upholds Method to Detect Election Fraud By Bill Simpich,
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Col. Lawrence
Wilkerson and Paul Jay discuss Hillary Clinton's militarist track record and
Donald Trump's bellicose rhetoric
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Frozen
Sovereign Funds Behind the Libyan 'Invitation' to Bomb Sirte Libyan Government of National Accord has
been under pressure to invite the US bombing campaign because western
governments won't grant access to $67 billion in sovereign funds until the
Islamic State is defeated
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Kerry's And
Al-Qaeda's "Very Different
Track" Attack On Aleppo Fails By Moon Of Alabama
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10 Facts
the Mainstream Media Won’t Tell You About War On Syria By Darius Shahtahmasebi
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U.S.
Bombing Campaign in Libya Has No “End Point” By Alex
Emmons
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Hezbollah
Leader Says Saudi Arabia’s Wahhabi Culture Behind World Terrorism Video - English
Subs
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Trump,
Russia and Democratic Lies By Margaret Kimberley
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The Danger
of Excessive Trump Bashing By Robert Parry .
HERE THE REAL DANGERS:
Danger 1. US econ get worse, prices up & working &
middle classes down.. Then Trump was right
D-2. NATO aggression on RU starts, they respond with huge US
loses. Then T is right: peace & neg
D-3. Deep State breaks: Clinton Benghazi plot was criminal,
plus new evid of her sold US data
D-4. BLM join Latino & other oppressed minor for radical
action against the plutocratic oligarchy
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COUNTER PUNCH
Renee Parsons The
Propaganda War With Putin
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Vijay Prashad State
of Fear: Trump v. Clinton
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Dean Baker The
Decline in Homeownership
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RT SHOWS
It's been almost seven months since Russia's runners,
throwers and jumpers were banned from international competitions over
allegations of systemic doping. While Moscow promised to clean up its act in
time for the Rio de Janeiro Olympics, some...
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The top story: Tourism associated with the Olympic Games in
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil is running into hurdles as ticket sales lag past events.
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Tyrel Ventura & special guest host Brigida Santos open
up the conversation with yet another bombing campaign against Islamic State
(IS, formerly ISIS), this time in Libya.
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Max and Stacy discuss the farcical, upside down world that
central bank intervention has made in markets – where the safest bets are now
the most dangerous.
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Nusra kills Syrian
government soldiers; and, according to Seymour
Hersh and other investigative journalists, they have, throughout the Syrian war, been supplied guns and other
weapons by the governments of U.S., Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, for that
purpose. This is part of America’s operation to overthrow Bashar al-Assad, whom
even Western polling
shows to be popular amongst the Syrian general population. That same polling
shows Nusra and other jihadist organizations (and the U.S. government, which
arms them) to be extremely unpopular in Syria.
On April 19th, the U.S. State Department
had blocked entrance into the United States by Raed Saleh, the head of the White Helmets, and
refused to say why. Saleh had been invited to receive in NYC an award by USAID
and NGOs that the U.S. government finances, but he was barred at the airport,
apparently because the FBI had placed him onto its no-fly list as a known
terrorist.
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Yesterday I explained why Revealing
the Real Rate of Inflation Would Crash the System. If asset
inflation ceases, the net result would be the same: systemic collapse. Why is this so?
Destroying the return on cash
with ZIRP and NIRP (negative interest rate policy) has forced capital to chase
any asset that offers any hope of a positive yield. As asset
inflation takes off, the capital gains attract more capital (never mind if
yields are low–we’ll make a killing from capital gains as the asset inflates
further) which creates a self-reinforcing feedback: the more assets inflate,
the more attractive they become to capital seeking any kind of return.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
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Según Obama, Trump no está calificado para estar en la Casa Blanca El tampoco lo estuvo
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MOST OF THE NATION DIDN’T VOTE HILLARY or TRUMP
De los 324 millones de habitantes de
EE.UU. solo aproximadamente 30 millones votaron por los dos candidatos que se
enfrentarán en las urnas en noviembre.
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PRESS TV
Later vet rally will
be against Hillary’s Corp fascist power
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If unfair ballot access laws .. we will run
ABSTENTION
Later the fight will be against “illegitimate Government”
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We don’t trust US polls, they are paid by Clinton
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Not the working
classes, not the Nation
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African National Congress woke up
in South Africa
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US,
Israel closer to new military aid deal wasted money
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