AUG 17 16 SIT EC Y POL
ZERO HEDGE
ECONOMICS
IS THIS CRISIS AN ISOLATED EVENT
EASY TO BE CONTROLED? .. A mere cycle?
See large
image at: http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/ABOOK-August-2016-PCE-DPI-Baseline.jpg
Introduction
The
economy is pointing downward with alarms ringing in a wider and broader
variety of important economic accounts. From
this view, it is no wonder the FOMC overreacted to
the May payroll report; that’s all that is left as it is more and more isolated. www.zerohedge.com
The NBER
does not define a recession as two consecutive quarters of contracting
GDP. That is the mainstream definition that largely survives as a coping
mechanism to deny what might otherwise be quite apparent.
Right
now, the search for cyclicality is almost irrelevant, though after
too much longer that may change. In other words, what we find is growing weakness in 2016 more
than 2015 that is increasingly corroborated even among the data
points the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee emphasizes. The economy is pointing downward, spring rebound aside, with
alarms ringing in a wider and broader variety of important economic accounts.
From this view, it is no wonder the FOMC overreacted to the May payroll
report; that’s all that is left as it is more and more isolated.
….
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The Fed Is Schizophrenic "We have come to the point where psychological
terms best describe the Federal Reserve’s communications policy..."
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SE
INICIO LA DEBACLE ECON : THE MARKET CRUSH .. “ Viene El sentanazo”
Bond yields are plunging, the USD is
tumbling, and precious metals are
surging after the unquestionably hawkish fed minutes... and so, how do you stop
the market melting down? Break The Market...
SEE IMAGE AT: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/08/16/20160805_break2_0.jpg
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RELATED NEWS:
There's going to be a day of
reckoning here. I've seen it many times in my life. When things
look good, they look great. You go into the sky. But that's when you have to really pull down and really stop
buying."
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Since The
Fed statement, GDP expectations have crashed to cycle lows but that
has not seemed to stop The Fed:
·
*FED OFFICIALS SPLIT IN JULY ON WHETHER RATE
HIKE NEEDED SOON
·
*A COUPLE FED OFFICIALS BACKED JULY RATE HIKE
·
*FOMC VOTERS AGREED TO WAIT FOR MORE DATA TO
GAUGE ECONOMY
But perhaps most notably, several Fed officials are concerned of financial risks from too low rates.
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When looking at the selling by
foreign central banks over the past 12 months, reveals something unexpected: a
not so stealthy, make that gargantuan $335 billion in
Treasury liquidations in the period July 2015- Jun 2015, something which as the
attached chart shows, is truly unprecedented.
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"Today's market requires
Cisco and our customers to be decisive, move with greater speed and drive more
innovation than we've seen in our history. The
restructuring will eliminate up to 5,500 positions, representing approximately
7 percent of our global workforce, and we will take action under this plan
beginning in the first quarter of fiscal 2017."
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SEE BIG IMAGE AT: http://i2.wp.com/bawerk.net/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/GDP-per-worker-US-and-Japan.jpg?resize=730%2C443
Which
country, the United States or Japan, have had the fastest GDP growth
rate since the financial crisis? (Spoiler
Alert - it's not who you think)
The answer seemed so obvious to us that we haven’t really bothered
looking into it until one day we started thinking about the demographic
situation in the two countries. As we all know, Japan has a rapidly ageing
population whereby the workforce is getting smaller for every day. Japan
has had a demographic growth tax ever since 1997 when population growth
overtook potential labour force growth. The United
States on the other hand only started “paying” their demographic tax in 2010 and
it was not until very recently it became severe enough to make a large dent in
overall growth accounting.
If we
adjust for the demographic difference between the US and Japan, the Japanese
economy has actually performed much better than the US. .. The US economy have barely managed to keep up
with is workforce; and the demographic tax facing the US from here on will only
exacerbate the precarious situation.
As Keynesian focus on
measured aggregates in the present, they could see nothing wrong with this
policy. Lower domestic saving was a signal of a strong economy where
little purchasing power would leak out of the circular spending stream whereby
one man’s liability is another man’s asset.
However, in the
dis-aggregates something was terribly wrong.
Old industries were kept alive by cheap credit, consuming the capital
that should bring life to new ones, cementing the pre-Plaza Accord system that
were ill fit for the new reality. Believing the
post-Plaza Accord policy of bubble blowing was working, the Japanese continued
with ZIRP (now NIRP) and QE in order to re-establish Japan’s glory days.
Unsurprisingly, it did not work. Income, as measured by nominal GDP stagnated
while outlays kept growing alongside the gargantuan public debt burden.
It is within this environment
of utter incompetence by the Japanese leadership the economy of Japan, adjusted
for its dire demographic situation, manage to beat the US! Think about that for a second and what it
means for the prospects of the US economy. The
United States is doing the exact same mistakes as Japan did and the lesson will
be the same; stagnation.
Instead of changing course,
economists justify their ineptitude with made-up concepts such as a permanently
reduced rates* to prove the secular stagnation thesis. Fiscal spending funded by debt issuance at negative rates is
next stop on this journey of madness, secured in central banks with
nominal GDP targets.
….
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-08-17/stupid-what-stupid-does-%E2%80%93-secular-stagnation-redux
….
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Evidently,
we have learned nothing from the 2008 crisis...
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POLITICS
"...In
short, polls and pollsters are going to be less reliable. We may not even know
when we’re off base. What this means for 2016 is anybody’s guess..."
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New
Texas polling data from Public Policy Polling yields this and other shocking
results...
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A PSYCHOLOGICALLY ILL PERSON TO THE PRESIDENCY?
Board-certified medicine
specialist and TV personality Dr. Drew Pinsky has come out and said that he is “gravely concerned” about presidential candidate Hillary
Clinton’s health, pointing out that treatment
she is receiving could be the result of her bizarre behaviors.
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ME & WORLD ISSUES
For the 19th month in a row,
Japanese Imports plunged - dropping 24.7% YoY (worse than expected), the
biggest drop since Oct 2009. Exports were just as dismal, also missing
expectations, plunging 14.1% YoY - worst since Oct 2009. The biggest driver of the collapse of Japanese trade was a
44% crash in the Chinese trade balance. There's
no lipstick to put on this pig... it's a disaster.. and worse still Yen
is strengthening back below 100 against the USD.
SEE
IMAGE AT: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/08/16/20160817_japan_0.jpg
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DEMOCRACY NOW
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
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The
Prospects of US Imperialism: Will it be Petras’ Apocalypse or Hammond’s Hopeful
Enlightenment? By Eric Walberg,
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Adolph Reed Jr. tells Paul Jay that the labor movement is
the only institution with the capacity that can amount to anything on the left
of center in American politics
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The push to warehouse asylum-seeking women and children
in a private facility as a deterrent violates US obligations to international
law, says Mark Fleming of the National Immigrant Justice Center
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CEPR economist Mark Weisbrot dispels the myths
surrounding Latin America's historic elections of left governments and their
implementation of anti-poverty and social programs
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Chris Williams and Jerry Natanine say the testing will
locate new drilling sites for fossil fuels that we shouldn't even be burning
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Aviva Chomsky uses the recent occasion of Fidel Castro's
90th birthday to discuss his impact after 50 years in office and a decade in
public life
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
US Impunity
Under Threat: Turkey May Disintegrate NATO By Paul Craig Roberts
The American
neo-conservatives gave NATO a new purpose. They made it an instrument for
obtaining American Hegemony over the world.
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Al-Qaeda, ISIS, the
al-Nusra Front and other ultra-right wing Islamic groups have been utilized by
American imperialism to destroy the old state
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Hezbollah
Leader: WHY The US Created Daesh (ISIS) Video
- English Subs
Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah reveals why the US created ISIS
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In a time of universal
deceit - telling the truth is a revolutionary act
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True to form, the
media reaction has been to shriek in outrage that he would cast aspersions on
such august personages.
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Even Nukes
Grow Old By Eric Margolis
Instead of debating
transgender toilets, American voters should be demanding: `Mr President/or Mrs
President, get rid of our nukes!
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The Washington Post
published what has to be one of the most naked examples of projection ever
displayed by a major American paper.
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America’s
Journalistic Hypocrites By Robert Parry
The mainstream U.S.
news media has essentially ignored or silenced anyone who deviates from the
neocon-dominated conventional wisdom.
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COUNTER PUNCH
[[ I gues she still suffering
from paranoia psychopathic .]]
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John W. Whitehead The
Greatest Threat to Our Freedoms
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Bruce Mastron America’s
Cult of the Police
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SPUTNIK
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IT IS HAPPENING: US TO HAND OVER CONTROL OF THE INTERNET AS OF OCTOBER 1
The United States will fulfill a
years-old promise to privatize the governance of the World Wide Web in October. The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) was
established in 1988 to coordinate domain names across the globe.
A nonprofit organization, ICANN is overseen by the US Department
of Commerce. Until recently, Washington had failed
to make good on this promise. But on Tuesday,
Assistant Secretary Lawrence Strickling confirmed that the process will be
finalized in roughly two months. http://sputniknews.com/science/20160818/1044378083/us-icann-handover.html
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MILITARY &
INTELLIGENCE Pentagon
Wants New Chemical Warfare Protective Suit, Despite Budget Cuts The US
Defense Department plans to offer cash prizes for winning designs.
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WASHINGTON BLOG
Given the current abundance of food globally, confidence
in permanent food surpluses and low grain prices is high. Few worry that the
present abundance of food could be temporary. But the global food supply is
more fragile than we might think, despite historically low grain/agricultural
commodity prices.
Both corn and wheat have
plummeted in price due to current demand/supply
In Globalization’s
Few Winners and Many Losers (July 20, 2016), I discussed the fatal
flaws in market price discovery: in the Tyranny of Price, risks and
costs imposed by environmental degradation are ignored in price discovery, along
with largely invisible declines in value, quantity and quality.
⇒ Keep Reading
⇒ Keep Reading
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
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El sinsentido de la economÃa moderna y común Sergio
P. Páramo
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Chile -Notas para un análisis de situación
polÃtica nacional: trabajo, revoluc e intelect orgánicos
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PRESS TV
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