viernes, 18 de diciembre de 2015

DIC 18 15 SIT EC y POL



DIC 18 15 SIT EC y POL


Fed Raised Rates, but Bond Market Had Other Ideas. Investor demand pushed down Treasury yields, highlighting challenge facing U.S. central bank. By Katy Burne. WSJ. http://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-hikes-but-some-rates-veer-lower-1450402769
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Deadly US airstrike against Iraqi forces. A least 20 Iraqi soldiers have been killed and 30 injured in an airstrike carried out by the US military, Hakim al-Zamili, head of the Iraqi Parliament’s Security and Defense Committee, told Sputnik news agency. [ AGAIN? . More than 1Mll were killed before. Stop this insanity!. .. At the request of Iraq.. RU should install same missiles installed in Syria. ]

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ZERO HEDGE






Update: CISA is now the law: OBAMA SIGNS SPENDING, TAX BILL THAT REPEALS OIL EXPORT BAN"They’re kind of pulling a Patriot Act." When Obama signs the $1.1 trillion Spending Bill in a few hours, as he will, it will be official: the second Patriot Act will become the law, and with it what little online privacy US citizens may have had, will be gone. www.zerohedge



[ There are 2 diff thing here: the elimination of taxes for oil export & the elimination of privacy for US citizen. The taxes were done yesterday for all, now the oil big corp got special attent & people the less. "DIME PARA QUIEN GOBIERNAS y TE DIRE QUIEN ERES" ]

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"It's not just warm, but very warm," exclaims one east coast ski resort owner, adding "I can’t remember it ever being like this here." But why?  www.zerohedge
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EXTRACT
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As WSJ reports, two weather occurrences - the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño - are combining to shake up temperatures from coast to coast in the U.S., bringing springlike conditions to the Northeast for much of this month and leaving parts of the West colder and wetter than usual.

Typically this time of year, Arctic Oscillation would bring cold air to the Eastern U.S., bringing temperatures down. But so far this year, the oscillation has stayed much farther north, allowing warm air from the south to fill the void, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s climate prediction center.


The other factor is El Niño, a periodic climate cycle in which sea surface temperatures over the eastern Pacific become warmer than usual. The effects from changes in Arctic Oscillations generally last only a few weeks, but the balmy weather in the Northeast could continue because of the El Niño effect, experts say.

El Niños push the subtropical and polar jet streams, which help define weather around the world, to the north. The result is that the southern U.S. gets rain that normally falls in Central and South America, while the Northeast and Midwest get a reprieve from winter as the polar jet stream is pushed up into Canada.

“If people are nervous, they should be nervous.”
The current El Niño is on track to rank among the top three strongest since record-keeping began in 1950, according to federal climatologists.

And since every failure of central planning to achieve its seasonally-adjusted economic targets must be blamed on something, even something as ridiculous as the weather, regardless if it is "too cold" like in the past two years, or "too hot", now we know why Q4 GDP will be crap!
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“..a vote of no confidence in what the Fed is doing, potentially forcing the Fed to backtrack in less than 2 days? “  www.zerohedge.com
 
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[ It did not happen & it won’t happen.. I guess. Why?  there are more winners than losers among huge Corp .. they will get the chunk of dollars for tem & will go to invade emerging markets.. the effect of this action is what remain to be seen ]    

“However, considering Kolanovic' track record of hinting at key risk inflection risk, it is quite likely that whatever the ultimate closing price on December 16 and, more importantly, December 18, volatility may very soon have an "August 24" type event.” 

[ IS THIS “WISHFUL THINKING”?.  .. If there is a sudden speed-acceleration on a public bus is not normal that because inertia people are moved  behind .. until  it comes a “new normality” ?. However,  Let’s take a look at such “move behind” depicted with Bloomberg charts and see if they are factors predicting  a huge recession in the near future:.. Here the list provided in this art… ]

1-the sudden acceleration of thursday .. called “the bloodbath.”: $INX 5min = $ TRAN 5Min-
2-With S&P 500 Futures breaking the 2,000 level after-hours... (possible contraction up to March 16)
3- Post-Yellen, bonds are outperforming notably.
4- Post-Fed... not exactly confidence-inspiring... “See: rate-hikes are awesome”
5- The Dow is down 700 points from post-Yellen exuberance... Nasdaq broke 5,000; Dow nears 17,000; and S&P 2,000 was defended with valor...
6- Leaving everything Red for the week...
7- Trannies are down 18% YoY... the fastest accelerating drop since Lehman...
8- FANGs all red post-Fed...
9- Stocks caught down to credit markets - as credit crashes...
10- Equities still have a long way to go... S&P 500.. Leveraged loans down
11- Treasury yields (most notably the longer-end) ripped lower after the Fed... but remain higher on the week...
12- With a dramatic "policy error" style flattening of the yield curve...UST 2s30s
13- The USDollar rose over 1% on the week but the last 24 hours has seen some fading as carry trades were unwound en masse, driving JPY higher..
14- Commodities were very mixed this week. Silver, gold, and copper surged today
15- Silver's best day in 11 weeks...
16- Crude collapsed to fresh cycle lows...

[ Are these moves out of the common volatility-behavior in current market?..  Do they predict a huge recession in the near future?.. Are they related to structural bases? ..Let the economists respond these questions..] . 
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[ LAS DUDAS PERSISTEN.. VER PARA CREER , dice un ciego ]

"I don’t mean to make anybody too worried about this stuff, right? ... We can speak less about stuff and pretend like everything’s just always great. It makes me think hey, should we be calling Yellen... and saying, let us tell you what we are seeing." www.zerohedge.com
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EXTRACT
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With Financial Stress Index near cycle highs and macro data collapsing (in Services and Manufacturing) even CEOs are questioning Janet Yellen's timing...
               
"I don’t mean to make anybody too worried about this stuff, right?
  
We can speak less about stuff and pretend like everything’s just always great. I don’t think – I don’t think that’s the right way to build partnerships. I think, we tell you when things are working, we tell you when things are not working, we tell you when we make changes, we tell you when the changes are working, we tell you when the changes are not working.”

...the areas that are affected by oil... the Texas markets specifically…In the first half of the year, they were pulling down total Company sales a little under 2 points...

In Q3, that accelerated to 4 points, and that’s meaningful, right? It’s not just meaningful to us, I’d say it’s meaningful to anybody who’s thinking about what the US economy ought to look like...

It makes me think hey, should we be calling Yellen... and saying, let us tell you what we are seeing."
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By: Restoration Hardware CEO Gary Friedman (Home Furnishing). h/t Avondale Asset Management
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House Passes $1.15 Trillion Spending Bill: Here Is What's In It. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/18/2015

“Moments ago, the House of Representatives just passed the $1.15 trillion spending bill that includes a $680 billion package of tax-break extensions, in a 316 to 113 vote, and will now move to the Senate, where its passage is likewise assured and will be signed by the president over the next few days. For those wondering what are the main components of the spending bill, here is a quick summary.”  www.zerohedge.com

[ El sunami de dollars listo a inundar las playas del sur .. A retirarse de ellas para sobrevivir .. los financistas de la especulación predatoria y el vulture capital (capital buitre) listos para recibir su gran tajada de esta torta y viajar a las periferias a ofrecer “salvatajes” .. Sálvese de ellos quien pueda  y mejor si se  UNEN  y crean alianzas para sobrevivir este shock .. Es más letal que la invasión de tropas USA al mundo. .. Este es un fenómeno natural del sistema neoliberal, dicen los que aplauden la “nueva normalidad”.. Otros, los más cautos economistas,  saben que esto no va a durar mucho .. y como en todo Sunami.. sus aguas sucias se retiraran de las playas ..  dejando solo destrucciones y miserias para los de abajo. .. Se acusara a los arribistas y entonces el  cambio de sistema vendrá con más fuerza a nivel mundial. .. Es inevitable que eso empiece a ocurrir el año que viene. ]
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“Just in case yesterday's weakness was mistaken for "well, it's just stabilizing before the next leg higher," US equity markets are pooping the bed this morning with The Dow down over 500 points from its post-Yellen highs, FANGs plunging red, credit collapsing, and bond yields slumping. Between quad-witching, Fed policy error concerns, and the utter failure of the Bank of Japan's efforts to save the world, global stocks and bonds are flashing red warnings for the end of centrally planned markets.” www.zerohedge
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[ Does the postman came late.. when the widow was crying the suicide of her husband?. The fact is:  There are severe policy errors of structural character –as we denounced yesterday- and they are becoming worse when days pass .. The feed back & feed forward are always slow .. Yellen said that they are going to be corrected asap, once they show up .. but they are related to over-production derived from Tech advances on the one hand, and the lower purchasing power of people due to salaries-stagnation, on the other.. Neither manufacture production, nor “millennial-unemployment  will be solve with this monetary policies.. If we add to this the effects on Debt and trade misbalances.. we can’t see nothing good for common people .. only more misery for them  inside and outside ..The worse will be the plundering from  the vulture capital abroad.. That will isolate the US from the rest of the world.. Easy to predict huge waves of social REV .. They will break up inside & outside. .. Me pregunto si entonces Volveremos a cantar la Internacional Socialista como la cantaron Marx y Bakunin y mas tarde Lenin y Trotsky en 1917. Tambien la canto la americana Emma Goldman quien fue a visitar a los bolcheviques, llevando el saludo de Saco y Vanzeti, los bravos sindicalistas de America que luego fueron asesinados y a quienes se debe la conquista de las 8 horas de trabajo diarias, esa que todo el mundo celebra el 1ro de Mayo, menos este pais en el que se logro esa conquista ?.. Podremos rescatar esa nuestra historia? .. SI lo creo.. es muy posible! .. ahora que se inicia la caida final del sistema capitalista y su inmundia neoliberal. ]
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“While correlation is not causation, one would have to be an ignorant unicorn-worshipper to believe that a collapse in America's manufacturing would not have some follow-through. Following the crash in Manufacturing, Markit reported America's Services economy massively missed expectations and plunged to 53.7, lowest since Dec 2014. New orders plunged to the lowest since January 2015 and employment tumbled. As Markit reports, this is "disappointing  news  for  an  economy which  has  seen the first  US  interest  rate  hike  for almost  a  decade." www.zerohedge.com

[ Al parecer estamos frente a los inicios del fin .. si el capitalismo no da mas (devino obsoleto) .. y si el socialismo está fermentando desde abajo para arriba (abandonando lo sillones burocráticos de la supuesta “democracia”) .. si esto viene ocurriendo a nivel mundial.. es porque estamos a los inicios de una nueva época .. el regreso de un socialismo más efectivo y mejor articulado desde abajo. ]
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“On Friday we get still more evidence that the West is begrudgingly coming to terms with the fact that Assad will be sticking around for the foreseeable future in Syria, as Bild (citing anonymous sources) says German spies have been "cooperating" with Assad for "some time" and are set to establish an intelligence cell in Damascus.”
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[ Difícil creerlo.. pero si es cierto.. eso probaría que la red imperial se está yendo a la merda… Si el imperio no pueden cambiar regímenes como lo hicieron antes .. es porque devino obsoleto. .. Al US y NATO solo les quedaría  el matrimonio político anti-natura : “democracias basura con monarquías basura” ..y encamarse con los panzones Saudis,  los de Qatar y los de emiratos .. Difícil que Europa acepte eso .. más posible que Francia prefiera a Le Pen en las elecciones del próximo año ..  o que se disuelva la UE o parte de ella.. que tolerar la emergencia del monarquismo jihadista de los Sunis.  Ese sería  el final de “La Sagrada Famila” del norte. ]
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Not since December 2013 have Canadian Consumer Prices dropped by such a large amount. November CPI dropped 0.3% MoM, dramatically worse than expected to the largest drop since Dec 2013. The largest YoY drop in Canadian CPI, amid a surge in inventories relative to a collapsee in wholesale sales sent the loonie crashing above 1.4000 for the first time since August 2003. www.zerohedge.com

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[ Temo que lo que viene en el SUR va a ser peor ]
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Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/18/2015 - 07:33
  • Oil heads for third straight weekly loss as supply weighs (Reuters)
  • BOJ's $2.5 Billion ETF Boost Seen Having Little Impact on Stocks (BBG)
  • Japan core CPI seen flat in November, household spending down (Reuters)
  • Dollar gets altitude sickness as BOJ disappoints (Reuters)
  • Fed Hikes, but Some Rates Veer Lower (WSJ)
  • White House calls for 'common sense steps' to help Puerto Rico (Reuters)
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TODAY SHOWS IN RT


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Worlds Apart. Forcing EU-nity? Ft. Cyril Svoboda, Czech Foreign Minister (2002-2006) Oksana is joined by Cyril Svoboda, the former foreign affairs minister of the Czech Republic, to explore  hot issues in Europe from debt to terrorism, regional conflicts and migration. 
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GLOBAL RESEARCH


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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH


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ALC. Encuentro Continental "Somos una Abya Yala". Guatemala, 29 de Feb al 6 de Marzo, 2016
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PRESS TV


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