DIC 16 15 SIT EC y POL
The US Federal Reserve raises
interest rates by 0.25 percentage points - its first increase since 2006 - in a
move likely to have global repercussions. It could also mean higher borrowing costs for
developing economies, many of which are already seeing slow growth. The
move takes the range of rates banks offer to between 0.25% and 0.5%. The
purpose it to stop the EC slowdown "the financial system was in danger of going bust" and to strengthen the dollar.
Analysis by Business editor Kamal Ahmed. The US central
bank cited as the reasons for its action increased household spending and
investment by business, along with a continued low rate of inflation. In its statement,
the committee said: "The committee judges that there has been considerable
improvements in labor market conditions this year, and it is reasonably
confident that inflation will rise, over the medium term, to its 2%
objective."
The Fed has said it
will continue to monitor inflation and employment to determine if and when
further rise are justified. The chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen,
said the committee was confident the economy would "continue to
strengthen" but it still has "room for improvement".
2017 'normal'
Future action will
depend on how the economy moves forward and will be gradual. The Fed's
medium-term projection for the Federal Funds rate is 1.5% in 2016 and 2.5% in
2017. The Fed will not get close to normal levels of around 3.5% until 2018
when it expects the economy will be back on a solid track. Ms Yellen
acknowledged weakness remained in the labour market, particularly wage growth. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35117405
...
More on this story in BBC
1-Rate rise: Reaction and
analysis : Key Points
- The US Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 0.25%
- Fed expects future rate increases to be 'gradual'
- UK experience: unemployment falls to the lowest in nearly 10 years
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ZERO HEDGE
The
Fed Hike Will Unleash A Monster Dollar Rally Goldman Predicts; Merrill
Disagrees. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/16/2015
The "long dollar" trade may be the most
crowded ever but that doesn't mean there aren't disagreements where the
greenback goes from here, especially after the Fed's historic first rate hike. www.zerohedge
EXTRACTS: [ The big corp
divided: Golman in favor vs Merrill BOFA disagree ]
GOLDMAN: The "long dollar" trade may be the most
crowded ever...
From Goldman's FX
team explaining why "they hiked it and they liked it"
The turning point for price
action came in the press conference, when Chair Yellen did not use a question
on credit markets to head in a dovish direction, but emphasized the soundness
of the financial system and strength of the economy instead (Exhibit 1).
Yes, sure, let's just forget the terrible September jobs
report which unleashed the tremendous October market surge on hopes of a dovish
Fed, which then magically morphed into a narrative that it was a hawkish Fed
that is good for stocks all along. Anyway back to Goldman:
There is no doubt that 2015 was
a difficult year for the divergence trade, notably EUR/$ lower.
[ Which train is Goldman taking about? This one..the train with rate-hike ?
OR this one, the train from the fable of NAZI Gold: no-train, only tunnel ..No light at the end..]
…
But we don’t think there is a mystery as to what happened.
Disagreement within the ECB has hampered the implementation of QE, which was
one driver that caused the bounce in EUR/$ from 1.05 to 1.14 and temporarily
put the Dollar on the back foot (the other driver being the dovish shift from
the Fed at the March meeting). We certainly do not subscribe to the theory
that Dollar strength is over now that lift-off has occurred, which is a popular
view in some quarters given the behavior of the greenback during past hiking
cycles.
Here is BofA Merrill Lynch with the variant perspective:
The dollar was mixed in the
aftermath of the FOMC today with the market nearly fully priced for the first
hike in 9 years. The still optimistic tone of the statement with respect to the
labor market and growth, the unlimited ON RRP facility (strengthening the Fed’s
ability to control short-rates) and with the dot plots still signaling 4 2016
hikes, the USD initially rallied--though later retraced—price action inconsistent with market’s expectation for a dovish hike.
However, the USD’s experience of strengthening the 3-6 months into the first
Fed hike, only to selloff in the months after, leaves us hesitant to read
today’s Statement and Press conference as unencumbered bullish USD factor.
More specifically, net USD long positioning was still quite high heading into
the meeting, therefore, the USD’s retracement was likely a reflection of
position adjustment than a fundamental catalyst. The mixed price action
suggests today’s meeting will not be a near-term catalyst for the USD to rally
further.
Dollar
performance going forward (now that the Fed has started the
normalization process) will depend on: FIRST, US
data and the pace of hikes—if the Fed is able to hike 4 times next year versus
the 2 priced into the market, the USD will move higher in our view,
particularly against a backdrop of further policy easing by the ECB and BOJ in
2016. A sharp RMB depreciation could slow the pace of USD appreciation, in
our view. And SECOND, equity performance
which, in part, will reflect the market’s assessment of the ability of the economy
to handle higher rates (and a higher USD). Given the USD’s positive
correlation with equities, any weakness here will likely hamper USD gains
against funding currencies like the EUR and JPY in this scenario. Recent
financial market volatility and the Fed’s still consistent message of
conducting 4 hikes in 2016 (vs only 2 priced by the market) make us cautious on
this front.
And there you have it: two opinions, two diametrically
opposite conclusions.
Confused? That's the point. However, if one had to come up
with a coherent trade from all of the above, it would be to go alongside
Goldman's prop traders, which is by definition precisely the opposite of what
Goldman's clients are advised to do.
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Congress Fumes As Experts Say Iran Violated UN Ban By Test-Firing Nuclear Capable Ballistic Missile. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/16/2015
[ The other face of ISIS, Saudis & US-NATO: inventing an
excuse to hit IRAN ]
Iran's move to test-fire a new ballistic missile in October
may not have violated the letter of the nuclear accord (on which the ink is
barely dry), but UN experts say it does violate a Security Council resolution,
a revelation which puts the Obama administration in an extremely awkward
position just as Iran was poised to see economic sanctions lifted.
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In
Dramatic Reversal, US Vice President Biden Calls On Turkey To Withdraw Its
Troops From Iraq. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/16/2015
"The Vice President reaffirmed the United States'
commitment to Iraqi sovereignty and territorial integrity and called on Turkey
to do the same by withdrawing any military forces from Iraqi territory that
have not been authorized by the Iraqi government." www.zerohedge
[ This is a wise statement from Biden: Does he planned to
replace the crony-corrupt-warmonger Hillary
in the coming elections? .. I suspect she will be indicted by Court for a criminal
felony that will put her out of the race.. Is Biden in the post? Ckeck: THE
VIOLENT CRIMES AND SHADY DEALINGS OF HILLARY CLINTON. Open: http://nd-hugoadan.blogspot.com/2015/12/dic-13-15-sit-ec-y-pol.html
. ]
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Fed
Hikes Rates, Unleashing First Tightening Cycle In Over 11 Years. S- by Tyler
Durden on 12/16/15
In the end, the Fed did not surprise, and raised interest
rates for the first time in almost a decade in a widely telegraphed move while
signaling that the pace of subsequent increases will be “gradual” and in line
with previous projections. The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously
voted to set the new target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 percent
to 0.5 percent, up from zero to 0.25 percent.
www.zerohedge
[ Hay varios efectos que van a ser inmediatos al interior del país, entre ellos
la inflación, lo que va a afectar los salarios, si estos no son elevados. Pero
son los efectos fuera del país lo que más pronto podrían ocurrir. Los prestamos
serán más caros y más elevada la deuda
acumulada por pagarse. Asi lo acaba de indicar en Bloomberg un economista. Este
hablo de una subida en tasa de inflación del 4.7% al 4.9%, sin que se mencione
elevar el salario mínimo. De forma que se va a descargar en las clases trabajadoras
del interior y de fuera, los costos de la crisis americana actual. Mientras tanto,
los banqueros y financistas
especuladores tendrán dólares para cazar fortuna en mercados emergentes (a
menos que se controle allí la tasa de cambio, que se adopte el yuan o que se
exija la inmediata condonación de la deuda externa que subira de un 25% a un
50%.) No se trata de un real plan para
estabilizar la economía, ni la interna ni las de fuera, se trata solo de amortiguar
el estallido o burst que se avecina: otra gran recesión como la del 2008 y evitar que se convierta en depresión
Ec similar a la del 30. Lo más probable no es una mejora de la economía USA
sino solo un largo periodo de estancamiento estructural, indicó Bill Croos. Se piensa responder con planes de contingencia
a los shock que presente el mercado. De ahí la intención de subir la tasa de
intereses poco a poco. ]
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Fed May Have To Drain As Much As $1 Trillion In Liquidity To Push Rates 25 bps Higher. Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/16/2015
[ Yellen may do so.. (inundar con
dolares los mercados emergentes, mientras se mantienen o elevan aun mas los
altos intereses a la deuda soberana) ..but what about the international effects?..
Will emerging states acept this sunami of
dollars without the condonation of the current debt to zero? .. Is this a
probeta-experiment not designed to last
longer .. as Keiser report said?... all depends on the response to hike-rates
.. so far nothing is sure.. China
already took precautions, according to their real situation. I already sent the Keiser report to the South
for them to consider a bloke response is possible.. Los
'doctores Frankenstein' del ámbito internacional que crean mercados
trastornados y monstruosos 849 ]
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MORE BREAKING BAD NEWS:
“We have reached the apogee of history’s greatest credit
inflation. Now we’re hurtling into a prolonged worldwide deflation. You can
already see this deflation in the plunge of oil, iron ore, copper and other
commodity prices. We are in uncharted waters after nearly 20 years of madcap
money printing by the Fed and other central banks. The world’s central
banks are finally out of dry powder. They no longer have the means to inflate
the global credit and financial bubble. That’s why today’s FOMC meeting
is the most crucial inflection point since 1929.” www.zerohedge
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6- Bad news for dollar:
Gold
& Silver Jump Ahead Of Fed On Concerns About "World's Most Crowded
Trade"
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7- To export, the dollar has to be
down: Congress
To Lift Four Decade Oil Export Ban: Will It Impact Crude Prices? However: “All that you’re doing is transferring the
glut from the U.S., where most of the storage capacity is, to elsewhere in the
world.” www.zerohedge
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The
Humiliation Is Complete: Assad Can Stay, Kerry Concedes After Meeting With
Putin. Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/16/2015
"The United States and our partners are not seeking
so-called regime change [and] there is no policy of the United States, per se,
to isolate Russia." www.zerohedge.com
[ Regime change was a failure in Syria from the very beginning ..
Now the US-NATO allies try to push the Saudis phony alliance of Suni states to
continue implement the same policy.. Obama support to the Saudis is clear while
the US continue the rhetoric of fighting suni-terrorism.. Another fiasco is at
portas.. the RU will take them out of Iraq and recover the original limits of
Syria.. any response from the Saudis will be excuse to crash them .. not matter
what the response of NATO.. RU are ready to go further with them.. if they don’t
remove all the missiles that they put in the borders of Russia.. that was
unfair .. and enough is enough. ]
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Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/16/2015 - 07:39
- Fed Poised to Mark the End of an Era (Hilsenrath)
- Fed opens meeting to put an end to crisis era policy (Reuters)
- Fed's Historic Liftoff and Everything After: Decision Day Guide (BBG)
- Emerging Markets Gird for Fed Rate Increase (WSJ)
- What 7 Years at Zero Rates Have Looked Like (BBG)
- 5 Things to Watch at the Fed Meeting (WSJ)
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
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Pronunciamiento en defensa de la Ley
de medios de Argentina . Foro de Comunicación para la
Integración de Nuestramérica
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Alemania se compromete militarmente en Siria Manuel Kellner
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