DIC 17 15 SIT EC y POL
ZERO HEDGE
A
Big, Fat "Policy Error" Or Worse? Find Out Tomorrow. Submitted
by Tyler Durden on
12/17/15
“Did algos finally figure out precisely what
we said first thing this morning, namely that the market completely ignored
what was a hawkish hike, and that as a result, what Yellen has
done, now that the kneejerk reaction is over, is policy error, pure and
simple?” www.zerohedge
EXTRACTS
..
On Tuesday, the day before Yellen's historic rate hike, the S&P closed at
2,043. Today, the day after, the
S&P closed at.... 2,042.
... but also for the most "sensitive" asset class
in recent weeks, junk bonds which suffered a bruising wipeout today.
and that as a result, what Yellen
has done, now that the kneejerk reaction is over, is policy error, pure and simple? To be sure,
the pancaking of the 2s30s screams "error" and an imminent global deflationary wave:
The Fed's rate hike] falls at a peculiar time—less than
48 hours before the largest option expiry in many years. There are $1.1
trillion of S&P 500 options expiring on Friday morning. $670Bn of these are
puts, of which $215Bn are struck relatively close below the market level,
between 1900 and 2050.
This is how we concluded:
..
"The irony will be if, regardless of what the Fed does,
the subsequent move is driven not by the market's read through of monetary
policy but by the "pin" in this massive $1.1 trillion option expiry,
the biggest in many years, one which if recent market action is an indicator,
suggests the stop loss strike level will be taken out in the process setting
the "psychological" stage for market participants who will look at the drop in
the market, and equate it with a vote of no confidence in what the Fed is
doing, potentially forcing the Fed to backtrack in less than 2 days! "
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Gold
& The Federal Funds Rate Submitted by Tyler
Durden on 12/17/2015
It is widely assumed that the gold price must decline
when the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates. It seems logical enough:
gold has no yield, so if competing investment assets such as bonds or savings
deposits do offer a yield, gold will presumably be exchanged for those. There
is only a slight problem with this idea. The simple assumption “Fed
rate hikes equal a falling gold price” is not supported by even a shred
of empirical evidence. www.zerohedge
..
EXTRACTS:
..
The Fundamental Drivers of Gold
We have recently made an updated list of the most important
fundamental drivers of the gold price – not necessarily in order of their
importance. Moreover, many of these drivers are obviously not independent of
each other. Here is the list:
- real interest rates, as determined by the difference in market-derived inflation expectations and nominal interest rates
- the trend in credit spreads
- the steepness of the yield curve
- the trend of the US dollar
- faith in the banking system’s solvency
- faith in the monetary authority
- faith in government more generally (with a special focus on fiscal policy)
- the trend in risk asset prices
- the relative performance of financial stocks vs. the broad market
- the rate of change in money supply growth
- the demand for money and the desire to increase precautionary savings
- the trend in economic confidence in general
- the trend in commodity prices
Below we show a simple chart that serves as a quick
explanation why the trend in the federal funds rate as such is not
relevant to the gold price. It is “simple” in the sense that while it is
connected with point one of the above list of fundamental gold price drivers,
it doesn’t employ a proper calculation of real interest rates (which would
involve deducting expected price inflation rates from nominal interest
rates).
Instead we have merely calculated the real federal funds
rate by deducting the annualized rate of change of CPI from the nominal FF
rate.
Conclusion
..
Our assessment is that one simply
cannot afford to ignore the fact that gold provides insurance against a
potential blow-up of the global fiat money and debt bubble – regardless of its
near to medium term price performance. Its performance is in any
case only negative in USD terms – in no other currency can gold be deemed to be
in a significant bear market. In fact, as we have recently pointed out, it is already
making new
all time highs in some fiat currencies.
..
Gold’s characteristic as a
hedge/insurance against the consequences of policymaker machinations has
recently gained additional importance in light of the fact that the echo bubble
is clearly fraying
at the edges already. Sooner or
later there will be another full-blown crisis, at which point gold ownership
will definitely be of great advantage. It is often said
that the only certainties in life are death and taxes, but that is not quite
true. There is another apodictic certainty: all booms driven by credit
expansion will eventually blow up.
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Paul
Craig Roberts On Who Really Benefits From The Rate Hike. S- by Tyler
Durden on 12/17/15
[ Aqui el
gran perdedor con el rate hike .. los consumidores: precios altos, salarios
bajos ]
A different way of putting it is that the “rate hike”
favors banks sitting on excess reserves over banks who are lending to
businesses and consumers in their community. In other words, the rate
hike just facilitates more looting by the One Percent.
..
“The fact of the matter is that the available liquidity exceeded
demand in the old rate range. .. The banking system as a whole does not need to
borrow as it is sitting on $2.42 trillion in excess reserves.”
..
“The “rate hike”
favors banks sitting on excess reserves over banks who are lending to
businesses and consumers in their community… In other words, the rate hike
just facilitates more looting by the One Percent.” www.zerohedge
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BRIBONES DIVIDIDOS: THE
LOSERS ARE UPSET.. GOLMAN VERY HAPPY
HERE THE LOSERS : BOFA =Bank
of America y otros
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LOS TRENES del RATE-HIKE en su CURSO y SUS PASAJEROS NO SABEN ADONDE VAN
[ El tren de Goldman va
desparramándolos en el trayecto.. Como ayer con el Titanic.. no hubo para
ellos asiento que les salve la vida.. ]
[ El tren neo-nazi jamás
encontrara luz al final del túnel .. lo que les espera no es el oro robado.. es
el crash letal de la recesión mundial ..
y otro juicio Nuremberg ..si quedan vivos ]
...
...
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Argentine
Peso Collapses 29% After Government Lifts Currency Controls. S- by Tyler
Durden on 12/17/15
“New President Mauricio Macri's move to unify the official
and black market exchange rates for the peso in the face of depleted FX
reserves and still sky high inflation has the currency plunging by nearly 30%
on Thursday.”
[ Los
traficantes del dólar pronto llegaran al salvataje .. Macri acusara a Cristina
de la inflación . Ese libreto lo
conocemos.. Luego vendrá la gran debacle.. y otra vez “que se vayan
todos!” ]
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Washington's
'Plan B' in Syria. Renewed military intervention to oust Assad?. F Cunningham.
Washington wants regime change, no matter what Kerry may declare.
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A Blind Eye
Toward Turkey’s Crimes. By Robert Parry. The developing story of a NATO ally’s ties to
terrorism.
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Syria Shatters
Pentagon Dream. By Pepe Escobar. No one should be reasonably expecting
that an astonishing mediocre, lame duck Team Obama would have the balls to
confront Wahhabism.
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This “Rate
Hike” Is A Fraud. Paul Craig Roberts. The rate hike just facilitates
more looting by the One Percent
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Adding Up
the Broken Souls. By Robert Koehler
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Quiénes son hoy los extremistas? ¿y quienes los moderados?. Vicenç Navarro
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Keiser
report: La sabia decisión del Banco Central
de Rusia
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"Limpieza étnica y
genocidio": Tropas turcas asaltan casas de civiles en una ciudad kurda. A la nacionalidad Kurda
de Turquia le asiste el derecho a la libre auto-determinacion.
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VIDEOS
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PRESS TV
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