lunes, 17 de marzo de 2014

CRIMEA VOTE FOR RUSSIA PROMPTS DIPLOMATIC AND ACUTE SECURITY CRISIS





Christof Lehmann (nsnbc) : 96.77 % of Crimeans voted “Yes” for joining the Russian Federation. The EU, G7 and US threaten sanctions and consequences, and reject the “legitimacy” of the referendum. Protesters in cities in the Eastern Ukraine, block Ukrainian military convoys with heavy weaponry. The new Kiev government deploys over 15.000 “National Guards” to the East and threatens terrorism against gas pipelines. Analysts warn that the “Crisis” easily could escalate into civil war and a direct military stand off.

Overwhelming and Unequivocal YES for Russia. Already early exit polls on Sunday evening showed that Crimeans had overwhelmingly voted good bye Kiev and hello Moscow, with the majority of all ethnicities and language groups voting in favor of Crimea’s accession into the Russian Federation. The final result was announced Sunday night, showing that 96.77 percent had voted “YES”.

Observers Stress, Referendum in Accordance with International Law and Norms. About 135 international observers from 23 countries, including Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Latvia and Poland monitored the referendum. The team of observers included MPs from EU member states, experts in international law, human rights activists and 1,240 local observers. 623 journalists from 169 international media have been accredited for the occasion. 
The head of the election monitors commission, the Polish M.P. Mateusch Piskorski,said that the voting took place in accordance with international norms and standards.

Crimean P.M. Heads to Moscow, Stresses that Crimea does not Want to Burn Bridges to Ukraine. Crimea’s Prime Minister, Sergey Aksyonov, along with a Crimean delegation, has headed to Moscow for talks with members of the Russian Duma (Parliament) about Crimea’s accession into the Russian Federation. On Sunday evening, Aksyonov said that Crimea will introduce the ruble as second official currency along with the Ukrainian hryvna next week, adding that the dual currency policy will be in place for six months. He added that the integration process of the Republic Crimea and the Russian Federation will take up to one year, adding that it could be done faster, but that Crimea wants to maintain relations with “economic entities, including Ukraine”, rather than to burn bridges.

Moscow Hails Referendum as Expression of Crimeans Rights to Self Determination. Moscow hailed the referendum as an opportunity for the people of Crimea, to express their preferences about the future status of the Crimean peninsula and stressed the legality of the referendum, while deriding the legality of the coup in Kiev, the post-coup government and the decisions that have been made by the government in Kiev since the coup.

White House “warns” Russia. The White House warned President Vladimir Putin on Sunday that Moscow would face sanctions in coming days and international isolation that will hurt Russia’s economy, reports the Reuters news agency. Reuters quoted White House senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer as saying, ”We are putting as much pressure on the Russians as we can to do the right thing”. A U.S. sanctions announcement could come as early as Monday.

EU – Block Can’t Just Sit Back and Allow this to Happen. The BBC quotes EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton, as saying that the bloc “can’t simply sit back and say this situation can be allowed to happen”. In an article, spiced with images of  alleged “pro-Russian troops”, the BBC quotes Ashton as saying that the “so-called referendum” was “illegal under the constitution of Ukraine and under international law”, adding:
“I call upon Russia yet again to meet with Ukrainian leaders and to start a dialogue with them, and to try to move to de-escalation, please, as quickly as possible. We’ve seen no evidence of that”.

Today, the EU foreign ministers from the 28 EU countries will be meeting in Brussels to discuss a visa ban and an asset freeze against a number of Russian officials. The EU has already suspended talks on an economic pact with Russia and an easing of visa restrictions. Ashton said that the ministers will now be toughening the measures by discussing a list of names of those who could be subject to an asset freeze and a visa ban.

Merkel’s Massive Sanctions and a Phone Call to Putin. Last week, the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, threatened Moscow with “massive” economic sanctions and other consequences. During the speech in the German Parliament (Reichsstag), Chancellor Merkel stressed that she perceived Russia and its position with regard to the Ukraine and Crimea as “a threat”. Merkel’s statement prompted the Chinese ambassador to Germany to warn about a possible global currency war.

Yesterday, the German Chancellor and the Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the crisis in the Ukraine by telephone, reports ITAR-TASS, which quotes Putin as reiterating that the Crimean referendum is held in accordance with international law., and as quoting the UN Charter Article 1, that stipulates the principle of equality and self-determination of peoples.

The agency does not report what Merkel said, but many analysts agree that Germany, despite Merkel’s threats, would be reluctant to impose “massive economic sanctions” because it would be the EU member that would come to suffer most from them. Merkel and Putin discussed, among others, the OSCE’s suspension of its talks with Russia.

Russia Obliged to Show Reciprocity with Regard to Sanctions. With reciprocity being one of the basic social behavior of homo sapiens sapiens, Russia afforded its reciprocity by assuring that Russia is ready to retaliate with counter sanctions against the EU and the USA, should they go ahead with economic measures against Russia over the tensions about Crimea. The Russian Deputy Economic Development Minister, Aleksey Likhachev, said last week:
“We hope that there will only be targeted political sanctions, and not a broad package affecting economic trade. … Our sanctions will be, of course, similar”. 

Already in January, Russia’s Minister of Economic Development, Aleksey Ulyukaev, warned that the world is headed for a global currency war. In an interview, following the latest Western threats of sanctions, Ulyukaev said in in interview with the Vesti 24 TV channel, that Russia, among others, would shield itself, from Western sanctions, by boosting trade in other currencies that the US dollar. Ulyukaev said:
“We need to increase trade volume conducted in national currencies. Why, in relation to China, India, Turkey and other countries, should we be negotiating in dollars? Why should we do that? We should sign deals in national currencies- this applies to energy, oil, gas, and everything else”.

While Diplomats Meet – Significantly Increased Risk of Civil War, Terrorism and Military Stand Off. Diplomats will be making many rhetoric statements today, the development with regards to sanctions remains to be seen later on Monday and throughout the week.

Meanwhile, the security situation in Ukraine is deteriorating rapidly, as a growing number of protesters in Kharkov Donnetzk, Dneprpetrovsk and other Eastern Ukrainian cities demand to hold a referendum equal or similar to the one that has been held in Crimea on Sunday.

The situation is becoming aggravated by the fact that the new Kiev government, especially the ultra nationalist and overtly Neo-Nazi Svoboda Party and Pravy Sector are bussing bus loads full of the same radicals to the Eastern Ukraine, who already created deadly violence at the Euro-Maidan in Kiev.

Heavy Ukrainian Military Equipment Masses along Ukrainian – Russian Border.

Ukrainian heavy military equipment, including armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles have been heading towards the Russian border since 14 March and continue to amass, leading both Russian and Ukrainian speaking residents in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Lugansk to protest and to block roads and railway lines to prevent a military escalation.

Residents have uploaded various videos of the heavy military equipment moving through the eastern Ukrainian regions. The process triggered protests which erupted in the cities of Kharkov, Donetsk and Lugansk.

The Russian TV channel RT reports that on Thursday, local activists of Lugansk and Donetsk regions blocked the columns carrying the military equipment. Near Donetsk, the Donbas people’s militia forced the Ukrainian troops to turn around, while in Lugansk the activists stopped the columns, setting up a 24-hour patrol guarding the military equipment and preventing its further movement.  Meanwhile, the Ukraine’s new Minister of Internal Affairs, Arsen Avakov, said:
“To date, the border with the Russian Federation is practically blocked. This raises tensions in Kharkov and Lugansk in particular. This is because the Border and National Guard are blocking passage from Russia [to Ukraine] of civilians with questionable intentions”.

Avakov said that some 15.000 – 20.000 troops of the newly-formed “National Guard” are being deployed to the Eastern Ukraine. During a government session, Avakov said:
“We suppose that the mobilization will involve all of the Ukrainian territory in figures of 10 to 15 thousand and will be carried out in the next 15 days”.

When it is fully formed the Guard will be comprised of 60,000 men and women appointed by the Verhovnaya Rada upon the recommendation of the acting president Turchinov.

The majority of both the Russian speaking and the majority of Ukrainian speaking Ukrainians in the country’s eastern regions stress that these National Guard troops will predominantly be recruited among ultra nationalists, Fascists and Neo-Nazi organizations which stood behind the violence in Kiev, including the hiring of snipers to shoot both protesters and police officers alike, to blame it on the ousted Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovich. It is considered an absolute certainty that these troops will be commanded by radical Neo-Nazi and Fascist commanders.

Adding to the increased risk of civil war and a military confrontation is that Pravy Sector leader Dmitry Yarosh has called for sabotaging gas and oil pipelines. Yarosh, against whom Interpol has an outstanding arrest warrant on terrorism charges, had earlier called on Chechen fighters to to attack Russian interests in solidarity with Kiev. About the deployment of the newly-formed “National Guard” and sabotage of pipelines, Yarosh said:
“We cannot allow the enemy to carry out a blitzkrieg attack on Ukrainian territory. We mustn’t forget that Russia makes money sending its oil through our pipelines to the West. We will destroy these pipelines and deprive our enemy of its source of income”.

On the eve of Sunday’s referendum, Crimean self-defense forces foiled an attempt to sabotage a gas pipeline at Arabat Spit, reported the Crimean Prime Minister Sergey Aksyonov. The, would be, saboteurs identified themselves as “the Border Guard”.

Analysts warn that the protests against the Kiev government and the military escalation in Odessa, Kharkov, Donetsk, Lugansk, Melitopol, Yevpatoria, Kerch and Mariupo, combined with the deployment of 15.000 – 20.000 ultra nationalist “National Guards”, and terrorism threats are a recipe for disaster, that could lead to an uncontrollable escalation, a civil war and a direct military stand-off, that could escalate and spin out of control.

Some analysts warn that the USA and UK have reasons to aggravate, rather than to defuse the crisis – A strategy that is directed against Germany, the EU and Russia.
Ch/L – nsnbc 17.03.2014
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