APR
19 20
ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
As long as
investors are confident that the next quarter is a little better, and the path
from there is improving, we think markets will be more forgiving of poor data.
But this thinking is predicated on April and May being the low for US and
global activity.
As Matthew emphasizes, a sustainable re-opening requires
that four key components are in place:
- adequate surge capacity in hospitals,
- public health infrastructure to support testing,
- robust contact tracing to curtail ‘hot spots’ and
- widespread access to serology testing (to determine who is already immune to the virus).
See Chart:
If you
give investors confidence that the worst is behind them, history suggests they
can put up with quite a bit of bad news. We
think this is especially true for credit spreads and levels of volatility,
which often hit their worst levels several months before the trough in economic
data (and even farther ahead of things returning to ‘normal’). If, as we
forecast, April and May represent the low of economic activity in the US, a
market low in March would be very consistent with past patterns of market
anticipation.
As long as investors
are confident that the next quarter is a little better, and the path from there
is improving, we think markets will be more forgiving of poor data. But this thinking is
predicated on April and May being the low for US and global activity.
In short,
we don’t see a trade-off between what’s required to control coronavirus cases
and a better long-run impact for markets and the economy.
….
SOURCE:
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"The
recent news flow suggests the acceleration phase of the default cycle has
officially began" - Goldman
Sachs
Speculative-grade companies with
weak liquidity and poor refinancing profiles, that are also in the most-exposed
sectors, dominated recent negative rating actions.
SEE CHART:
In our
baseline default forecast we further assumed US high-yield spreads will
increase and remain elevated at recessionary levels in the next two
quarters."
SEE CHART:
Goldman, the vampire squid writes
that "the recent news
flow suggests the acceleration phase of the default cycle has officially began" and points out what we
first reported last week that in Retail, J.C. Penney elected not to make its $12 million
scheduled interest payment this week, and has entered a 30-day grace period,
with a default now inevitable. At the same time, Neiman Marcus Group was
downgraded by S&P to CCC-/Neg O, with the rating agency viewing a restructuring as “more certain in the near term.” [ IF happens..]
….
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And if you think that a
vaccine will be the golden ticket that gets us out of this mess, you might want to reconsiderthat
belief, because there has never been a successful vaccine for any
coronavirus...
SEE CHART:
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
The mainstream media doesn't realize how big a threat this is to our entire societal fabric...
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When the ‘Stimulus
Checks’ will arrive to Pittsburgh PA Do
you both have idea on it?
Watch:
Treasury Secretary bats down CNN's Jake Tapper & liberal chorus claiming it
was all about stroking the
president's ego..
…..
Or there is not checks for those
who love Trump ‘to death’? I’m not
fascist jic
===
Should we be concerned?
….
Of course… but we prefer the check.. no vaccines at all.. unless I get
a Lawyer to put in jail the one who inoculate me the virus
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Is this TRUE?
"All of these things have led to more deaths, more illnesses, more
economic damage. If it wasn't for the Trump-Pence regime..."
….
IF TRUE.. THIS IS FASCISM…
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... a funny thing happened on the way back to normal:
We couldn’t get there from here.
The Fed actually did raise interest rates and shrink its
balance sheet a bit in 2018, but towards year-end the
financial markets melted down. Here’s the S&P 500:
See Chart:
This flash
bear market was enough to send the Fed back to cutting rates and printing
money. And just like that, zero-to-negative interest rates and QE
to eternity became permanent features of the global economy.
Then came the
pandemic that not only ratified QE but expanded it to
cover pretty much any financial asset anywhere, while sending government
deficits to levels last seen during World War II. The IMF
now projects that by year-end global debt will
be $8 trillion higher than it would have been otherwise. Advanced economy
sovereign debt will surge from 105% of GDP to 122% — in one year.
See Chart
Deeper Deficits
Now let’s
assume the best-case scenario going forward, which is that a cure for covid-19 is developed and the global
lockdown ends in a few months. The world goes back to work and growth returns
to the previous 2 or so percent.
What happens to all this new debt?
Nothing.
We simply carry it into the next crisis, amplifying a mess
that would have been spectacular in any event.
2018
proved that tightening of any kind is destabilizing for a society this highly
leveraged. So currency once created and debt once incurred can
never be retired, only rolled over.
THE TRUE CRAZY
BEGINS...
- ...when one-off relief payments are made permanent (hello, UBI),
- ...when the Fed makes QE equal to the entire federal deficit (come on in, MMT),
- ...and when whole categories of private sector debt are simply forgiven (step out of the bible, Mr. Debt Jubilee).
- ...Oh, and when interest rates go firmly negative in the US (see you in the rear-view mirror, zero bound).
Put another way, the entire socialist/corporatist
wish list is about to be enacted in one ear-shattering primal scream of “WE
GIVE UP!”
The obvious response to this would be to load
up on precious metals. But since they’re apparently no longer available,
I don’t know what to tell you, other than “snooze, you
lose.”
….
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
...it's not market support, it’s
absurd puppet theater.
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Many early
entrants are passing or nearing infection peak. The focus shifts to "exit
plan", as emergency treatments are proving costly.
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As the COVID-19 Crisis stagnates the Earth, there may be a big shake up going on in space...
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Only $17.30
until the price of oil turns negative.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
ALAI ORG
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RT
EN ESPAÑOL
América Latina supera las 100.000 infecciones por
coronavirus https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/350499-america-latina-infecciones-coronavirus-cifras
"Es imposible": Wuhan rompe el silencio y
niega que el CV se haya originado allí https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/350463-imposible-laboratorio-wuhan-negar-coronavirus-surgit
Irán confirma un reciente incidente con la Marina de
EE.UU. en el golfo Pérsico https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/350465-iran-confirma-enfrentamiento-marina-eeuu-golfo-semana-pasada
Caída récord del petróleo USA en WTI: su precio
alcanza su cota mínima en dos déc https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/350502-petroleo-alcanza-precio-minimo-18-
Perú, 2do país
de Latinoamérica más afectado por covid-19 con más de 15.000 casos https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/350493-aumentan-casos-coronavirus-peru
El UK iniciará fabricación masiva de vacuna anti CV antes de terminar las
pruebas https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/350412-reino-unido-fabricar-vacuna-antes-pruebas
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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