APR
13 20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"...you get a bailout, you get a bailout,(almost) everybody gets a bailout."
It looks like the bail-out and QE schemes have provided a
better windshield for capital owners than for the hourly paid employees, if we judge it by the most recent trends. Equities are UP again,
while initial claims keep skyrocketing.
SEE CHART:
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To all fans of MMT: you are getting exactly what you always wanted.
See Chart:
FED
Deficit will reach Record Levels
Debt Could Exceed the Size of the Economy This Year
See Chart:
And now
we look forward to the Congressional Budget Office updating its long-term debt
chart which before the Coronavirus pandemic looked like this...
See Chart:
Debt held
by the public (% of GDP)
….
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"the largest shock to the global economy in 90 years has left
equities only 18% below the record highs of mid-February and roughly in line
with the market price in June 2019, just 10 months ago."
See Chart:
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We’re gonna need a
bigger stimulus
Consumer
sentiment just suffered the largest single-month decline on record as Americans became increasingly rattled by
thousands of business closings and millions of layoffs across the country.
The share
of respondents who said times were “good” plunged in April to the lowest level
since May 1980... despite the biggest surge in The Fed Balance Sheet ever...
See Chart
FED
Balance sheet vs. Good times
What a
let-down!
The message from the
markets for "interventionists" is clear...
A
"historic" OPEC+ deal utterly failed to inspire...
See Chart:
And The
Fed's "unprecedented" action from Thursday has now been completely
erased from The Dow's memory...
See Chart:
Virus-Fear
Trade was resurrected today...
See Chart:
Notable
plunge in 'value' factor today...
See Chart:
Even
Fed-Sponsored junk debt fell further today...
See Chart:
Treasury yields rose today,
steepening with the long-end up 4-5bps, short-end up 1-2bps...(NOTE - bonds
were bid into the EU close)...
See Chart:
Gold prices surged to new cycle
highs...
See Chart:
The B-dollar Index ended lower for the 5th day in a row...
See Chart:
And, as Bloomberg details, assuming a bear market in U.S. stocks has ended because the S&P
500 Index has rallied 25% from its March low, a milestone reached Thursday, flies in the face of recent history. Gains of more than 20% interrupted the 2000-2002 and
2007-2009 bear markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
See Chart:
Here we go again
And don't forget earnings start tomorrow with the big banks...“We’re in for a
tough year,” said Savita Subramanian, head of U.S.
equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Corp. in a Bloomberg
Television interview. Earnings are going to be down “by about 30%,” she added.
See Chart:
DOW
vs Dow Consensus 12M forward EPS
….
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All the
gains from The Fed going "all in" on Thursday have been erased...
See Chart:
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"Surprisingly,
the largest shock to the global economy in 90 years has left equities only 18%
below the record highs of mid-February and roughly in line with the market
price in June 2019, just 10 months ago."
SEE CHART
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"We
believe it’s a 'plateau.' That is relatively good news in a world of bad
options. We should start looking
to 'reopening'."
With US health data suggesting that the spread of the
coronavirus may be nearing a plateau in the U.S., public officials are under
growing pressure to chart a path back to normality, something Morgan Stanley did over the weekend when it laid out a projected
timeline and milestones for a return to work
in the US.
See Chart:
Projected Timelines and milestones
for a return to work in the US
The latest data show that conditions
are beginning to improve. New York hospitalizations continued to flatten, with
total admissions virtually stable at 18,000 and with ICU patients and intubations
declining since Sunday.
See Chart:
Net change in Intubations
However, the number of new active
cases looks to be peaking globally, projections of cumulative fatalities and
peak healthcare usage are coming down, and even actual new hospitalizations in
hard-hit New York City have fallen sharply.
See Chart:
Net Change in total hospitalizations
In a nutshell, optimists think this will allow us to reopen the economy soon. Pessimists
counter that the main reason for the improvement is social distancing, which
directly corresponds to reduced economic activity; if so, any
economic rebound could result in a large second wave of infections, as well as
renewed deterioration in the outlook for the death toll and healthcare
overloads. Who is right?
According to Goldman, much of the improvement is probably a
direct consequence of social distancing and the plunge in economic activity,
and could reverse quickly if people just went back to work. But even if this means that a
return to “business as usual” is off the table until we have a vaccine, it
might be possible to bring back at least part of the lost output with a sharp
increase in testing as well as more limited changes to business practices that
lower the risk of infection.
Assuming a marginal
propensity to spend out of income of 60%, this $5trn
income hit might result in a further $3trn reduction in aggregate demand and
therefore GDP, according to Goldman calculations. In turn,
this new $3trn GDP hit might show up as another $3trn reduction in private
sector income. And so on, until global GDP has
contracted by a multiple of the original virus-related impact.
Next steps
If policymakers can fill in the remaining holes on macro
policy and manage to thread the needle between continued virus control and a
gradual reopening of the economy, the level of GDP should begin to move higher
in May/June, according to Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius. Will the recovery look V-shaped or U-shaped?
According to Bank of America, there
is no chance of a V-shaped
recovery. For Goldman, its forecast for US growth shows -11% in Q2, -8% in
Q3, and -5% in Q4, which qualifies as U-shaped. On a quarter-on-quarter
annualized basis, however, this same forecast shows -34% in Q2, +19% in Q3, and
+12% in Q4, which looks rather V-shaped.
Thus, Goldman's forecast is one in which
the economy recovers only gradually from the virus but nevertheless shows
sequential growth rates in H2 that are unprecedented in postwar history:
this will allow the bank to cover all bases, and to tell its clients it is
bearish one day, as it was for much of the past months, and then to U-turn
unexpectedly, and declare - as it did today - that it
is now bullish and that the bottom of the market is in (even as Goldman itself had
a bit of fun at its own absurd report).
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
The press
jumped on this...
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Lawyer
Stella Morris expressed that already her fiancé's "life is on the brink"as she fears he would not "survive
infection with coronavirus".
….
America & the world will have
another Trump IF –for humanitarian reason- he
make a Clare statement on this immediate FREEDOM.
I PROMISE I will help to create this new image for our President Trump.
That will help his re-election.
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Contradictions among ‘Mafiozi Men’?
"The
nature of this recession--the unprecedented suddenness and trajectory of the
contraction centered on a health crisis--has provided absolute cover for policy
makers to go well beyond traditional support."
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"The
path to re-opening the economy is going to be long. It will require turning on
and off various forms of social distancing and will only come to an end when
vaccines are available, in the spring of 2021 at the earliest."
See Chart
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"I’ve never witnessed a system being more strained..."
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Doctors
have to wonder whether they have
underestimated COVID-19’s ability to wreak lasting havoc."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Was China the biggest importer of US infected Porks?
MORE THAN 200 CASES OF COVID-19 WERE REPORTED
AMONG EMPLOYEES
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IRONY 1: UGLY business:
"These
people wanted Corona to spread like crazy in A
and then offer their 'help' via vaccine..." [ TT called Hydroxychloroquine
to this medicine ]
….
It happens in A.. not in America? Are you
sure? Where in A was born Melinda?
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IRONY 2: POWER to BILLONAIRES…
Does this happens in Africa?.. not in the other ‘A’?
We were heading that direction anyway; the coronavirus sped up the
process. And where it will lead isn’t clear yet. But it won’t be anything you can plausibly call 'capitalism'...
….
No way.. in capitalism our
‘Democracy’ give power to the poor working classes.. Capitalism does not give
money to trumpists & much less to the Bloomberg’ mafia.. And Bloomberg
did not corrupt elections, the poor working classes di it. They stolen the
money from the ‘honest’ gay Bloom and
gave it to Biden. We have ‘honest Demo’ with them. Hard to believe it,
but it is the official true, and ‘official true’ must be trusted. Otherwise the
Furer can be upset. LONG LIVE DEMOCRATIC FASCISM! .. the real capitalist
socialism.
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When patterns degrade to the point of
unpredictability,
anything becomes possible...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Disrupting Huawei’s Role in 5G Rollout ‘Would
Do Britain a Disservice’, Tech Giant's UK Chief Warns
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI ORG
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RT
EN ESPAÑOL
La OMS afirma que el covid-19 es 10 veces más
mortífero que el H1N1 https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/349785-oms-covid19-mas-mortifero-h1n1
RU desarrolla medicina anti CV cuyos ensayos
clínicos comenzarán dentro de 10 días https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/349779-rusia-desarrollar-tratamiento-coronavirus-ensayos-clinicos
Suben a 21.102 los casos de CV en Rusia, tras 2.774
nuevos positivos en un día https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/349857-rusia-aumentan-casos-coronavirus
Trump asegura que el número de nuevos casos de CV en el US se mantiene "plano" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/349826-trump-casos-coronavirus-plano-eeuu
Méx: hospitales privados y públicos hacen frente
común para combatir el CV https://actualidad.rt.com/video/349838-mexico-hospitales-lucha-conjunta-covid19
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
-Cuba
–Endless Cruelty of US Sanctions –US Intercepts Chinese Medical Supplies to
Cuba By
Peter Koenig
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
- Wash
Your Hands? Despite Pandemic, Thousands Still Have No Water in Detroit, a
Coronavirus Hot Spot
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