viernes, 24 de abril de 2020

APR 24 20 ND SIT EC y POL



APR  24 20  ND SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco



ZERO HEDGE  ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics



Global economic data disappointed/crashed by the most on record this week, plunging to its weakest since the great financial crisis...
See Chart:
Global Macro Surprise Index

But, but, but... stocks are up over the last few weeks right.
And then there's the ongoing increase in deaths from COVID..
However, on the week the mirage of gains in stocks faded - after two glorious weeks of "well the worst must be over" gains - and gold surged on the week...
See Chart:

And long-bond yields down 8bps on the week...
See Chart:

Small Cap stocks actually outperformed on the week as the Friday afternoon buying panic helped float all boats (ramping Nasdaq green on the week very briefly) but Dow Industrials and Transports were weakest...
See Chart:

High yield bonds had an ugly week and IG bonds even dropped a little in price...
See Chart:

The B-Dollar Index  was up on the week with rallies every day after EU closed...
See Chart:

Finally, circling back to where we started, here’s a gloomy statistic from Bloomberg to close the week out: Friday’s U.S. durable goods report showed the inventory-to-sales ratio climbed to 1.82 months in March, the highest in almost 11 years.
See Chart:

Shipments dropped 4.5%, the most since early 2009, leaving producers with more in inventory and signaling production cutbacks in coming months. At the same time, orders for goods meant to last at least three months tumbled 14.4% -- the most since 2014 -- led by slumping demand for commercial aircraft, Commerce Department data show.
So buy stocks?
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Bring on the concerns about the second wave.

Earlier this week we noted that the most confusing thing in the market at the moment is the huge dichotomy between what will be one of the worst synchronized global economic slumps in history, against what is now the largest ever intervention and bailouts.
See Chart:

As a result, the $64 trillion question is whether the record liquidity injection by central banks in the past month...
See Chart:

In an attempt to put some order to this chaos, overnight BofA's Chief Equity Strategist summarized the prevailing trader thought as "bearish but fewer looking for retest of lows" and defined the "New consensus" in the market as follows:

  1. buy "what the Fed buys" (credit);
  2. deflationary trading range for stocks;
  3. own quality/growth (tech, health care),
  4. avoid investment ghettos (EU, EM, energy, financials)
Hartnett will also irk some traders by contending that the current "pain trade" in the market is still up, as a result of bearish positioning and bullish policy, and he expects the S&P to challenge 2018 lows of 3020. However, on the bearish side, the BofA CIO contends that the end of lockdowns will be the most likely catalyst for end of the rally. And since the reopening begins as soon as today...

... one could argue that the topping process has begun, a point Hartnett agrees with as he notes that the BofA "lockdown portfolio", which while still up from the March low has begun to underperform slightly, and is an early sign that “leadership” may temporarily peak May/June. 
Cash mountain: $4.7tn currently in Money Market Funds; biggest inflows of year to “prime MMF’s” ($20.9bn) which were epicenter of epic March liquidation on Wall Street.

BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: pinned at 0.0 (Chart 1), i.e. investors extreme bearish; asset performance since March 17th “buy signal”…stocks 17.5%, HY bonds 2.6%, but 10- year Treasury yield -16bps...yields not rising despite extreme bearish sentiment either because a. recession to drag risk assets lower, or b. Treasuries discounting imminent “Yield Curve Control” announcement by Fed…yields lose signaling power.
See  Chart:
Extreme Bearish

US leading policy panic: $6 out of every $10 of central bank asset buying in 2020 is by US Fed; $4 out of every $10 of fiscal stimulus is by US Treasury. 

The bull surprises: a. policy makers need higher asset prices to prevent public or private sector bankruptcies, reduce unemployment, offset pandemic, “whatever it takes” policy continues; b. data improves…US mortgage purchasing index, BofA credit card data has stabilized, unemployment claims lower, March will be low for global PMIs & EPS revisions (Global Earnings Revision Ratio worse than 2008 in Mar).
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

Remember when the Fed said now
is not the time to worry about moral hazard?
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"To rescue investors who knowingly risked there capital, and should now be left to suffer the consequences, since those are the rules of the game..."
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Here are all the key events and milestones over the next month as the world prepares to reopen from a historic shutdown of the global economy.
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"For the under-50-year-old population, the death-rate is 5 per 100,000... That’s a rounding error in the scheme of things.You can’t run a society based on the risk of 5 out of 100,000 people..."
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DON’T TRUST THE OLIGARCHY IN POWER

...The oligarchic class in your own country that has been exploiting, propagandizing, deceiving, oppressing and robbing you every moment of your life since you were born. [Little change to make it consistent with her content message and previuos articles.] :
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Distortion?  YES..  They did it before:
The Russians and the Chinese are your enemy.
Not the media-owning class who uses their unrivaled narrative control to sow division among your brothers and sisters at home and around the world so you don’t realize who’s really been fucking you over.
….
Are the Russians and the Chinese OUR ENEMIES?
The key QT is why our oligarchy wants to start WW3 with them?.
….
Buy Caitlin Johnstone  books :
….
Read her recent articles:
1
Caitlin Johnstone. In a recent article falsely titled "The U.S.-China propaganda war is on hold, but not for long "  OPEN:

2
ahtribune.com — The neoliberal Council on Foreign Relations through its journal Foreign Affairs has amped up its criticisms of China. United States president Donald Trump and American officials have orchestrated a gambit to deflect unwanted attention from the miserable US response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the souring US economy.   OPEN:
            ….
            WHAT?  ..  YES:  This is an evidence of FASCISM IN AMERICA
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"Please, please, wake up. A calamity far worse than COVID-19 itself is at hand..."
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo



"China has continued to run a global disinformation campaign to deflect blame for the outbreak of the pandemic and improve its international image." Just kidding! -EU
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION:

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RT en español

Desempleo y rebajas salariales: estragos del coronavirus en el mercado lab  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/350724-desempleo-record-rebajas-salariales-coronavirus
Cómo intenta el cuerpo humano salvarnos del nuevo coronavirus  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/351068-cuerpo-humano-intentar-salvarnos-nuevo-coronavirus
Trabajar desde la cama  la peor opción para sobrevivir el autoaislamiento CV  https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/351117-psiquiatra-explica-como-sobrevivir-autoaislamiento-covid19
Vacuna china contra el  CV-19  podría estar lista en septiembre   https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/351099-vacuna-china-covid-19-emergencias-lista-septiembre
Casa Blanca anuncia planes para reabrir la economía en 16  Estados  https://actualidad.rt.com/video/351093-casa-blanca-anuncia-planes-formales-economia-ee-uu
Política petrolera de US perjudicó no solo a rivales, también a sus aliados  https://actualidad.rt.com/video/351052-politica-petrolera-eeuu-perjudicar-rivales-aliados
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3

Monitoring the Public After CV  By Philip Giraldi
Curtains Up!  By David Perez  VOTE FOR NOBODY!
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics

Paul Street   May Day, Mayday!
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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DEMOCRACY NOW  Amy Goodman’  team

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