APR 21 20
ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle
y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
….
Note que esta Edic del Journal Democ-Now fue bloqueada por esto la re-edito.
Ver la Seccion “US-world-Issues”
: US FORCES ARE STILL SECURING WHAT IN SYRIA? Here
Wikileaks uncover the US terrorist Foreign policy with Obama.
….
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over.
Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
Terrible news... the paper oil market was utterly destroyed. As May expired,
the rest of the front-months were clubbed like baby seals...
See Chart:
As Bloomberg's Javier Blas noted:
"Yesterday
was scary. Today is a lot more scary. The whole oil market is screaming
oversupply simultaneously. "
And that fear spilled over
into stocks (S&P's biggest drop since April 1st)
See Chart:
The Dow was unable to hold
its 50% retracement level of the Feb-Mar crash...
See Chart:
FANG Stocks dared to slide
today...
See
Chart:
The Nasdaq fell back below
its 200- and 50-DMA...
Bank stocks fell for the 2nd
day..
See Chart:
5Y
Yields hit a new record low intraday, highlighting the decoupling between the bond market and the stock
market's rebound...
See Chart:
Worryingly, given the Powell
Put, HYG prices are erasing all of The post Fed gains...
See Chart:
The dollar rallied out of
its recent range back to two week highs...
See Chart:
Gold was down on the day as
the dollar gained but did push back up towards $1700 (futures) into the close..
See Chart:
Finally, just in case you
thought stocks were cheap... and this 2-day drop is a dip to buy...
See Chart:
As US Macro data collapses
to its worst sine Lehman...
See Chart:
US Macro Surprise Index
….
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Recessions reverse excesses...
….
Real Retail Sales vs Real PCE
SEE CHART
But it isn’t just retail sales. It
is also exports which account for about 40% of corporate profits overall, which
are seen sliding dramatically in March. SEE CHART: Exports
plummeted to 2008 Lows
Earnings
Estimates Still Too High
SEE CHART: earning risk due to CV impact
[Updated]
Earning low: In our first analysis, earnings were expected to
decline That is a
decline of -2.3% in Q1 and a total decline of -6% in Q2.
Those numbers
have now been revised for a decline of -4.4% in Q1, and a total decline of
10.2% in Q2.
SEE CHART
So, with the
entire U.S. economy shut down, 15-20% unemployment, and -20% GDP, earnings are
only expected to decline by 10%?
History suggests this is
not likely to be the case.
First, let’s review GAAP Earnings (actual real earnings) as compared to GDP.
Not surprisingly, since “stocks are not the
economy,” there is a higher correlation
between economic growth and corporate earnings. This is because, without economic growth, consumers don’t have paychecks with
which to consume, which is where corporate earnings are derived from.
SEE CHART GAAP Earning vs. GDP Growth
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Earnings-GDP-Releationship-042020.png?itok=ctWy24df
Assuming a 15% decline in
GDP (some estimates run as high as 30%), the suggestion of
only a 10% decline in earnings seems laughable. The
chart below looks at S&P’s estimates (as reported) going
back to 2008, versus the S&P 500, and expectations for a “V-sharped” market
recovery.
SEE CHART: S&P500 Index vs Eaning annual % change
Again I ask you, “Does it seem realistic that with a decline in economic
growth not seen since the “Depression,” earnings would only decline by 10%?”
Valuations Are An Issue
We just want to
get through the typhoon, and we’d rather come out of it with a whole lot of
liquidity.
Currently, the “race to chase the bottom” has
gotten investors to once again vastly overpay for
assets which portends poor future returns. More importantly, they have jumped into “buying risk,” at a point
where that “risk,” or rather the opportunity to lose capital, can not
be calculated.
Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian has also done
the math and concludes that as ‘stocks have rallied,
bottom-up consensus estimates for 2020 have fallen’, which in turn has pushed the S&P 500’s
forward P/E ratio from March’s low of 13.0x to 19.5x, higher than
mid-Feb’s peak P/E of 18.9x.” – Zerohedge
SEE CHART: Best P/E Ratio
The Bear Market Isn’t
Over
The chart below is the long-term
log trend of earnings versus its exponential growth trend.
See Chart: Earning
reversion likely on par with financial crisis
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Earnings-Reversion-Trend-2-042020.png?itok=DumFHIeW
“Using that historical
context, we can project a recession will reduce earnings to roughly 100/share. The resulting decline asset prices to revert
valuations to a level of 18x (still high) trailing earnings would suggest
a level of $1800 for the S&P 500 index.”
SEE CHART: S&P500 Bear Market correction potential
Again, I am not “overly dramatic” or “super
bearish.” I am
also not saying the index is going to 1800.
What I am saying is there is a good bit of data to
support the thesis that a much larger earnings decline is in process, and markets will have to adjust to
bring valuations in line with earnings.
That is just how markets work both with, and
without, the Fed.[as SYSTEM .. where common actors
–inversor y comprador- ‘desaparecen’ ]
A more realistic, and still overly
optimistic of a 50-60% decline in earnings, makes current valuations even more difficult to
support. (Using the chart and table below,
you can pick your price and valuation level.)
SEE CHART:
Whether its corporate profits, earnings, or GDP, no
matter how you analyze the data, it suggests the
outlook for stocks going into the summer is not favorable.
While it certainly seems to be a simple formula
that as long as the Fed remains active in supporting
asset prices, the deviation between fundamentals and fantasy doesn’t matter. It
has been a hard point to argue as of late..
However, what has started,
and has yet to complete, is the historical “mean reversion” process
which has always followed bull markets. This should not be a surprise to
anyone, as asset prices eventually reflect the underlying reality of corporate
profitability and earnings.
Recessions
reverse excesses.
….
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Sadly, as markets stall and crash,participants will still be in their seats
thinking all is well...
SEE CHART History of Assets
Bubbles Past 40 Years
….
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OIL.. EJE del poder polit-Econ en el US is Down. What is next: take it from Saudis/Ven?
Forget Turnaround Tuesday...
Oil is a “dangerous market to trade in right now,”. The market needs shutins to
happen now. “This has changed everything,” , said Monica Malik, chief
at Abu Dhabi Com bank
“So much of the
recent recovery was based on the fact that the oil price had been above
$50-$60, providing
support to economic activity, n
that’s just been decimated.”
This "price slump was psychologically very important,”
“There is a
possibility it will change perceptions forever.”
The best summary of today's chaos came from Bloomberg energy reporter
Javier Blas who put it simply:
"Yesterday was
scary. Today is a lot more scary. The whole oil market is screaming
oversupply simultaneously. June WTI, which four weeks away from expiry, just
touched $6.5 a barrel. The market is going to force
huge production cuts not in May or June, but immediately."
Update (1435ET): With settlement now come and gone, the May contract soared back
higher today... and adjustments to the USO allocation (to June, July, and
August) prompted a bid in each ahead of the settle which all then plunged back
after...
See Chart:
Update (1345ET): Here we go again. June WTI is now crashing - trading below $7 -
down over 65% on the day...
See Chart:
Remember the settle occurs at 1430ET (and the
expiry of the May contract)... and the prompt spread (May-June) has surged back
to zero...
See Chart:
WTI Prompt
Spread (May-June)
Dan Genter, CEO of RNC Genter Capital Management said:
“The ETFs that are
dealing with the contracts in the commodities are never going to take physical
delivery, they can’t take it. There’s not a doubt the oil ETFs distorted the
market. It was across the board but the ETFs, in our opinion, were the biggest problem,”
he said.“The panic is because there are people invested
in that commodity and in the contracts that not only have no intention of
taking delivery, they have no capacity for taking delivery. All of
a sudden, you’re up against a wall. They call it a contract for a reason.”
But, don’t worry, because President Trump will take the pain away...
right?
….
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WHAT IS NEXT? Plunder Gold from
Peru? But CAN own
half of Comp-property. How to?
"FED CAN'T
PRINT GOLD": BOFA CALLS GOLD "ULTIMATE STORE OF VALUE", RAISES
PRICE TARGET TO $3,000 [ I Have the answer for the HOW TO. Send $2Mll & is yours ]
As central banks and governments double their balance sheets and
fiscal deficits respectively, we have also decided to up our 18m gold target
from $2,000 to $3,000/oz.
The Fed can't print gold , unlike every other
asset.. but can raise its price. In April 2011,
gold price exploded to a record above $1,900/oz .. Today our 18m tons of
gold can elevate its price from $2000 to $3000/oz, suggest Bank of America. And here we are, when can convert BOFA into
the biggest US bank once gold get the "ultimate store of value."
Here
key highlights from Gold prices
report: they performed very well in
recent periods:
As central
banks and governments double their balance sheets and fiscal deficits respectively,
we have also decided to up our 18m gold target from $2,000 to $3,000/oz.
And
with that let's dig deeper into "The Fed can't print gold" and why BofA thinks that gold will have a
3-handle in 18 months time: Keep in mind...
Gold
prices have performed well during the recent periods…
SEE CHARTS:
…except over a brief window where
liquidation occurred
SEE CHARTS
The sell-off in gold prices mirrored the
move in real rates
SEE CHARTS:
Gold is a function on real rates, USD,
commodities and risks…
SEE CHARTS
[and
risks can be created and/or manipulated; I have the key for Peruv-gold ]
…and gold volatility tends
to follow moves in other markets
SEE CHARTS:
Covid-19 has also triggered physical
market dislocations…
SEE CHARTS:
…leading to the launch of a new CME gold futures
contract
Gold interacts with all financial markets
in different ways
SEE CHARTS
Despite the rally, gold positioning has
been surprisingly weak
SEE CHARTS:
Check next Charts:
Fundamentally, EM gold demand should continue to be
soft
…as purchasing power in India and China is
suffering
…although we expect central banks to buy some gold
bars
Gold may take comfort on rising inflation
expectations
…driven by massive monetary easing plans around the
world
…and also by unprecedented fiscal deficits
and government borrowing
Cross-asset portfolios should increase exposure to
gold
…and on our estimates investors are still
underweight gold
We INCREASE OUR AVERAGE GOLD PRICE FORECASTS FROM
2020 ON
...and we also up our 18m gold target from
$2000/oz to $3000/oz
….
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US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
"If this is challenged in the courts
andwe've passed 40 laws that have been
enacted and the Supreme Court invalidates them all... that's a nightmare."
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What? The plan to attack RU-China is
postponed? . IF so: start dissolving
NATO
The virus's ability to mutate has been vastly underestimated...
….
The story-tell of
mutation & self reproduction is not new. It has been published more than a
month ago by China scientists. What is
new is that PENTA-NATO Military drills in the borders with RU-Ch will
automatically be responded and what is worse: that such exchange of nukes will
immediately create new letal pandemias
more destructive than the current one. The whole world will be exposed to
nuclear emissions, starting with the 40 th troops send by NATO.
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Just xenophobia Agst China & the
usual RU phobia of Dems & Reps:
Some of us would welcome an evidentiary discovery into the origin of the
coronavirus. But Democrats and Republicans appear wedded to political narratives for their advantage...
….
Las
mentiras no necesitan someterse a las reglas de la ‘evidencia’ .. basta con
repetirlas una y otra vez hasta grabarlas en la frágil mente del ya
‘politizado’ por la prensa mercenaria or presstitute.
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For better or worse, COVID-19 has become the most important political issue of
the 2020 election. ..
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“You absolutely love to see it.”
====
...knowing what we knew on March 1st,quarantine and extreme social
distancing was absolutely the right thing to do...The mistake was not taking the timeout...
SEE CHART:
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A Harvard University law professor
believes that homeschooling is
dangerous and should be banned... "because they want to isolate
their children from ideas and
values central to our democracy."
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU,
Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Trump
last year: "And
we're going to be protecting it, and we'll be deciding what we're going to do with it in the future."
….
In Syria, US military forces
supported ISR plunder of Oil after the war in Libya. In general The US supported all Saudi –suni- jijadists attacks against Iran. Syria is the vast territory
where Saudis, Turks, + UK-US can train their soldiers & practice their military weapons
(including bio-chemicals). Syria was used
to re-create the evil military alliance against Iran. This happens specially with Obama Regime. The war mongerismo
of OB started in Libya, where the
Gold was stolen after killing Gaddafi
and ended up in Syria and Yemen
. In 2013-14 OB created the “Islamic
State” in Iraq and the Levant or ISIL terrorist org spreaded in al Middle East. Training &
arming 10,000 jijadist cost to US 1Bill USD a year since 2012 to 2017. In March
2015 he supported the Saudi war against the small & poor country of Yemen. OPEN:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_interventions_by_the_United_States
More on this issue:
2-
3-
4-
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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THE REST FOR TOMORROW
LO DEMAS PARA MAÑANA
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