APR 7
20 ND SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
COLLAPSING
LIQUIDITY DURING END-OF-DAY REBALANCING HAS LED IN AN UNPRECEDENTED MISPRICING
OF OPTIONS
Here is yet
another way in which the market is now broken.
For the second time in two weeks,
today's Market on Close rebalance announcement at 350pm ET wreaked havoc on
stocks. As we showed
earlier, the publication of a notice that there
were over $2BN in stocks for sale sending the S&P lower by 40 points in an
unprecedented single tick.
SEE CHART: E
Mini S&P Futs vs MOC $2.4 BN
This followed a similar but inverse
reaction on March 26, when news of a $7BN MOC buy imbalance sent the
S&P higher by 40 points in seconds.
Why is this
happening? Simply, there is just no liquidity in the market, something
we showed last week when we visualized the record bid-ask spread in the median
S&P stock.
However, as
it turns out, the collapse in equity liquidity which manifests itself in ever
more violent moves during the end-of-day rebalancing,
is having a far broader impact.
According
to Goldman's John Marshall, single stock options prices have become
overvalued as end-of-day re-balancing in a low liquidity market have
exacerbated common measures of realized volatility. As the Goldman derivatives
strategist explains, "realized volatility for the average stock appears 32 points higher than
it is."
This
suggests an “end-of-day realized volatility premium” of 32%.
SEE CHARTS:
This is problematic as many market
models, especially vol-targeting, use close-to-close volatility as a key
input and are currently
overestimating the fundamental volatility of stocks by 32% over this period.
Finally, for those readers who are
not as versed in the nuances of greeks trading, here is a brief appendix
explaining How low liquidity has inflated realized
volatility, and why is it important for stock and option investors?
Read the answer under these
subtitles:
Realized volatility is an input to many risk management and option
pricing models.
How did the supply/demand of liquidity impact volatility over the past month?
Should daily closing prices affect the value of derivatives more than
intra-day price volatility?
Single stock options with more than a month to expiration should see less
impact from these end-of-day effects.
….
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The forward
PE multiple today, in light of plunging earnings, reached at today's intraday
high was 19x, the same as in late
February when stocks were at all time highs!
Why is this notable? Because as Golub writes, "this is the same level the S&P500 held on Feb 19, the
all-time high."
SEE CHART:
US EQUITY
ABSOLUTE VALUATION REMAIN HIGH
SEE TABLE
RETURN
OUTLOOK GOES FROM BAD TO POOR
SEE CHART:
PRICING IN
A MODERATE EPS DECLINE
SEE CHART
EPS
UNLIKELY TO RETURN TO PREVIOUS PEAK UNTIL 2023
SEE CHART:
….
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Never before has the US government caused a
recession, or depression,simply by
shutting down the economy...
Well, yes, it seems that our establishment betters can’t get rabid enough
urging on a total shutdown of the US economy.
SEE CHART: FRED
It is therefore proceeding with warp speed, as today’s claims data
dramatically illustrates. When placed in historical
context, the reported 6.6 million of initial unemployment claims (thin red line
on the right margin) filed thru last Saturday truly give the notion of being
“off the charts” a wholly new definition.
SEE CHART: FRED 2
What is coming down the pike in terms of the “incoming data”, therefore,
will generate sheer panic in the Imperial City and on Wall Street, too.
Indeed, when you add in the automatic stabilizer outlays to the $2.2
trillion Everything Bailout, the hemorrhage of Federal spending and borrowing
will be damn near incalculable.
SEE CHART: FRED-3
In short, this is merely
not your grandfather’s recession; it’s actually a Bubble Finance era Doomsday
Machine.
The tragedy, of course, is that the blistering fiscal and financial calamity
ahead is totally unnecessary. Public health measures to contain the virus until the summer heat kills
it off could be far more targeted and less intrusive via
a policy of protective isolation for the vulnerable populations, and maximum
flexibility and personal protection (masks, gloves etc.) for the workers and
participants in daily commerce.
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
IS TRUMP PROFITING FROM THIS CRISIS?
Cases have
been reported at 34 prisons so far.
....
Cases have
been reported at 34 prisons so far. READ
THIS TWITER
or:
REACTION TO
THIS ‘MEDICNE’:
1-BREAKING - Swedish hospitals have stopped administering hydroxychloroquine
& the HCQ/AZ combination to #COVID19 patients. First clinical results show
**no evidence** that the HCQ/AZ combination had any benefit at all, show even
adverse reactions. https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/06/hydroxychloroquine-update-for-april-6
2-
Medical experimentation on prisons?
Tuskegee and nearly a century of slave experiments was real, y'all. Seems odd that they would be willing to kill
off their inmates since US prison is a for profit business. But trump has
friends in that business so they are probably being pressured to help line his
pockets.
3-You know
who's in charge of prisons...Barr. Just another trump enabler. Will he
force prisoners to ingest a potentially fatal drug, in support of his
"dear leader" This is Mass
Murder.. Trump should be arrested for
practicing medicine without a license.
4-Trump has
stake in Hydroxychleloroquine Drug maker: REPORT:
Link address: https://t.co/FxeTAvRTdj?amp=1
Judith: "Taxpayers" bought a ton of an
unproven drug for jared's "stockpile" because trump ordered it. Now, "taxpayers" buy a ton of that drug from
jared's "stockpile" because barr ordered it. Will incarcerated humans
now be forced to consume this drug because trump and barr order it?
5-Dr. Public Square: Replying to
and
6-My opinion: IF all of this is true: THE SUPREME COURT
MUST PROCEDE
SOURCE: Replying to
and
Trump owns shares in the company that produces the drug. #ProfiteeringPresident
#ProfiteeringPOTUS
SOURCE:
Claude Taylor on Twitter:
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The plot
from the movie "Up In The Air" is now
playing out in reality...
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RFELATED:
What's going to happen is that the pandemic, at some point, will be
solved, but we are all going to
come out on the other side with fewer freedoms than we started...
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For some
reason, funded largely by the United States, yet very China centric. We will be
giving that a good look.
====
Observing governments thrashing about in the crisis, the phrase that comes to mind is not “public
trust” as much as “every nation for itself"...
====
An economy of rackets designed to enrich
the few at the expense of the many is brittle because self-serving rackets
snuff out competition, accountability and transparency...
Introduction
An economy of rackets designed to enrich the few at the expense of the
many is brittle because self-serving rackets snuff out competition,
accountability and transparency. What's remarkable about the lockdown isn't
the hue and cry about the economic damage--it's the
absence of any critical curiosity as to how our economy became so fragile that only the wealthiest contingent can survive a few
weeks on savings or rainy-day funds
Some Subtitles
While
everyone is busy screaming about the damage done by the lockdown, nobody's
asking why costs are so high that few can survive a few weeks on their own
means.
If costs weren't so
crushing, more households and enterprises might have savings.
As for
innovation--please don't make us laugh. All the rackets work overtime to avoid
being disrupted by the forces of productivity and transparency.
I've been
explaining How
Healthcare Is Dooming the U.S. Economy for years. Now it's
becoming too obvious to deny. Sickcare
Will Bankrupt the Nation
….
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...be aware
that power structures (and their goons like Biden) can and will seize on opportunities to roll out
pre-existing authoritarian agendas... it happened after 9/11 and it's
happening now.
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
At least two Patriot batteries are now located in at the US
military bases of Ayn al-Assad and Erbil. Two more Patriot batteries will reportedly be deployed soon...
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
VIDEO
URL: https://youtu.be/R6gyKwiG1uY
- Tehran Urges Washin to Stop Hindering Oil
Sales as Num of CV Cases in Iran Tops 60,000 US is already at war with Iran &
Iran must act accordingly: Hit ISR-NATO
allies
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
ECOL Social Tráfico ilegal de animales salvajes:
bomba sanitaria que estallo con el CV Adeline Marcos
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ALAI ORG
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RT
EN ESPAÑOL
Científicos ARG logran secuenciar el genoma completo
del nuevo CV: SARS-COV-2 https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/349198-cientificos-argentinos-logran-secuenciar-genoma
Trump vs OMS :"suspensión poderosa" de
pagos por CV "muy centrado en
China" https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/349200-trump-anuncia-suspension-poderosa-pagos-oms-acusarla-centrada-china Chantaje asqueroso.. típico de Trump
El CV como
pretexto para que los narcotraficantes jueguen al 'altruismo' en México https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/349180-coronavirus-pretexto-narcotraficantes-jueguen-altruismo
Colombia se suma a los países que lograron aislar la
cepa que causa el coronavirus https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/349130-cientificos-colombianos-consiguen-aislar-virus-coronavirus
La O M S desaconseja de que el personal sanitario
use mascarillas de algodón https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/349174-organizacion-mundial-salud-desaconsejar-mascarillas-algodon
Fuerza Armada VEN derriba una narco-avioneta que
irrumpió en su espacio aéreo https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/349186-fuerza-armada-venezolana-neutraliza-aeronave
RU fabrica el cañón-obús más potente del mundo. No matara USAnos, los
capará https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/349144-rusia-actualizacion-2s7m-malka
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Presid
Candidate Bernie Sanders & Fight for a Progressive Future
Si AOC postula como VP de Sanders y como Pdo indep del Dems..ganan las
Elec
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