sábado, 7 de diciembre de 2019

ND DEC 7 19 SIT EC y POL



ND  DEC 7 19  SIT EC y POL 
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco

US  ECONOMICS & POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

TRUMP TRAMPED & US ECON DEBACLE
explained by the Economist Chris Hamilton
The current and future situation is one of collapsing credit and collapsing money creation as the growth of deflationary elderly overwhelms inflationary working age growth...
The story I'm not hearing...
July 31...Debt Ceiling Deal - July 31st of this year, Senate Democrats carried President Trump's budget deal eliminating the debt ceiling through July 31st of 2021.  This after a majority of Trump's House Republicans voted against the budget deal but House Democrats overwhelmingly passed it.  And thus the debt ceiling was no more.  Since July 31st, the Treasury has issued over $1 trillion in net new debt but that is just the start.
July 31...Federal Reserve begins series of interest rate cuts - On July 31st, the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates and has cut rates from 2.4% to 1.55% or a 35% reduction on the cost of overnight intra-bank lending, the foundation of credit.
August 21.. Federal Reserve restarts QE -  Since August, the Fed ceased quantitative tightening (QT) and restarted quantitative easing (QE).  The Federal Reserve balance sheet has expanded by over $300 billion in short order, with an $180 billion increase in Treasuries held.
Excess Reserves Not Restarted - With all the new QE, hardly any of it has been added to bank excess reserves...just a paltry $16 billion out of the $306 billion in new currency digitally conjured.
Direct Monetization - That is $290 billion in new dollars directly in banks hands...and banks do what banks do, which is leverage those dollars by 5x's to 10x's (or more), resulting in...
Asset Explosion - Using the Wilshire 5000 as a proxy (as it represents all publicly traded US equities), US equities have risen $2.42 trillion over the 4 month period as all the new digitally conjured cash has been passed to large banks for the "assets" they held...or about a 8.5x the quantity of new "not QE" and "not excess reserves".
What does that look like?
In dollar terms over the past four months, US debt up over $1 trillion, Federal Reserve held assets up over $300 billion, Fed held Treasuries up $180 billion, Excess Reserves up only $16 billion, direct monetization of $270 billion...resulting in an increase of $2.4 trillion in the Wilshire 5000 market weighted capitalization (chart below).
See Chart:
Since July 31 2019 –Change, Trillions S’s-

In percentage terms in just four months, total US debt is up 4.8%, Federal Reserve held assets up over 8%, Fed held Treasuries up 8.6%, excess reserves up just 1.2%, direct monetization up over 18%, and equities up over 8% (chart below). 
See Chart:
Since July 31-2019 –Change Percentage-

Federal Funds rate was also reduced by 35%.
SUMMARY
Trump and the Democrats agreed to spend without limits, Trump and the Federal Reserve agreed to QE4 and mainlining the digitally created cash into the economy (errr...financial assets) via direct monetization.  THE RESULT has been to massively enrich the few who own the vast majority of all assets which are surging upwards and pass all the debt along to the working stiffs.
Trump is truly an evil genius...Dem's are truly self serving dolts...and the Fed is truly the best central bank money can buy.  Or the Fed is the evil genius, Dem's still self serving dolts, and Trump is the best president money can buy.  Either way, Trump, the Democrats, Republicans, and the ultra-wealthy are laughing all the way to the bank. And the vast majority of Americans have been sold into debt slavery.
POST SCRIPT - CONTEXT
The chart below details why this is the greatest asset bubble in modern history.  The chart shows the market value of all household assets (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.) as a percentage of disposable personal income (simply put, the value of all assets held by US citizens versus their total national income that may be invested or saved after all taxes are paid).  As the chart below details, as rates go up, asset valuations go down...and vice versa.  And never have asset valuations been so far beyond underlying incomes to support those valuations as now
See Chart:
In blue: HH Assets as % of DPI. In Black: Fed Funds

Since 1981, household assets as a percentage of disposable personal income versus federal funds rate with primary sources of debt detailed below.  The breakdown of mortgage debt and surge of federal debt since 2008 are not so hard to see.  Plus the Federal Reserve balance sheet is included as those assets will only be increasing from here on out
See Chart:

DEBT CREATION BY PERIODS, 1960 through 2000, 2000 through 2008, and 2008 through 2019.  Relatively stable corporate debt creation, collapsing mortgage debt, and surging federal debt.  And collapsing mortgage debt and surging federal debt is only just getting started, because...
See Chart
Sources of US debt by periods

And finally, why mortgage debt won't be rising anytime soon and all debt creation will be up to the federal government.  The chart below shows the annual change in young (working age) versus elderly...a surging population of elderly versus huge deceleration of growth among the working age population. 
See Chart:
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19.6%, 25.7%, 20.5%, 27.3%, 15.5%, 10.8%, 13%, 16%, 13.3%, 18.7%, and... 0.00%
See Chart:
Tamed Optimism: WS least bullish on the stock market in 15 years

On the other hand, the only other time all three central banks were easing at the same time as they are now, was during the financial crisis:[ Facing recession sin incluir WW3]
See Chart:
In 2020 US-FED, ECB & BoJ will  all be conducting QE simultaneously
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US  DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio

Biden, like Kerry, has methodically lied about his enthusiastic support for Bush's invasion.
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A catch-22 of their own making...
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The frantic efforts of an exploitative elite to eliminate dissent only accelerates the regime's path to collapse...
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US-WORLD  ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo

Trade wars will continue for years, even decades, until China abandons communism or the U.S. concedes the high ground in global hegemony...neither is likely soon.
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While China has considered those who drafted the US Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act to be placed on a no-entry list -- prohibiting them from traveling to mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macau, it seems that on Saturday a much broader list could already exist as the president of the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in Hong Kong was detained 
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The 70th anniversary summit-turned-circus this week would seem to be a portent for NATO’s overdue redundancy...
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Donald Trump is in a painful bind...
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Trump created the problems with China: interfering in Hong Kong, threats & ..
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IF IRAN is bombed is because of RU.. they still supporting inhuman policy of ISR
Israel confirmed a 'mystery' rocket test which had diverted all inbound civilian flights.
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"We do not need to have lengthy talks with the US now and denuclearization is already gone out of the negotiating table."
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO  ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3

- Trump Calls on Americans to ‘Love Israel More’  The inhuman barbarity committed by ISR against Palestinians + stolen their land, cannot be pardoned  by reasonable people.
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos

REBELION
ECOL:  Peor de lo esperado  Ferran Puig
Europa   FALSIFICADORES  Pierre Rimbert
Bolivia  Vargas Llosa  EL MENTIROSO   Atilio A. Boron
Mundo   Un triple interés en China   Xulio Ríos
FEM:  Dónde está el movimiento feminista?  Ana Bernal-Triviño
ALC:  Dominica, ¿la próxima víctima?  Ricardo Alarcón
VEN: Tributo a la burguesía  Pascualina Curcio
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VIENTO  SUR
Francia   El malestar social coagula  Léon Cremieux
Malí  Neocolonialismo francés en África  Cathy Billard
Humanismo: Oír las espinas de la barbarie:   Antonio Crespo
Am Lat: Ent a F Gaudichaud   La vuelta a la guerra de clases  AP
Lib de prensa: En defensa de Julian Assange  Sally Burch
Capitalismo:  Un sistema que roba nuestro futuro  Ian Angus
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO  allies

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