ND
DEC 16 19 SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
Trade deal, done (ish). UK Election, done. China data,
rebounding. Quad-Witch, soon. Fed injecting cajillions in liquidity, check!
It's the Rick Astley market to year-end (maybe...)
Everything is awesome if we look at
stocks, but bonds and yuan appear much less enthused at the path ahead...
See Chart:
Boeing weighed on Dow Industrials
and FedEx dragged Dow Transports lower, but all the US majors ended the day
higher...
See Chart:
Overall, since the Oct 11
"phase one" deal, German stocks have outperformed US and China has
lagged notably (managing to get green overnight)...
See Chart:
And VIX was clubbed like a baby seal
to an 11 handle once again...
See Chart:
Late in the day, equity protection
costs began to rise, even as IG credit protection slipped lower...
See Chart:
Treasury yields all rose today, but
notably the short-end outperformed, belly underperformed (2Y +3.5bps, 7Y +6bps)
See Chart:
While stocks broke out of the recent
range to new record highs, 30Y Yields stalled out at pre-deal levels...
See Chart:
The B-dollar fell for the 10th day
in the last 12...
See Chart:
The weaker dollar helped lift all
commodities (with gold scratching out a tiny gain) as copper outperformed...
See Chart:
Finally, we note that the S&P is
now as "top heavy" as it was during the dot com bubble: the five
biggest stocks (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, FB and AMZN) account for 16.5% of the
S&P's market cap, the most since 1999.
See Chart:
And don't forget, it's not the
fun-durr-mentals, central bank liquidity is all that matters...
See Chart:
Trade accordingly
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/vixtermination-short-squeeze-spark-stock-surge-bonds-yuan-decouple
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BofA's
Chief Investment Strategist expects the S&P to hit 3,333 by March 3,
because central banks are acting as if a full-blown financial crisis has
already erupted...
See Chart:
Central Banks cutting like it’s a
crisis
See More interesting Charts at
….
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OPEC and allies may have reached a deal on crude oil production
cuts, but the hard work to achieve
a balanced market starts now...
See Chart:
….
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"The Fed is learning that the banks are interpreting the rules in
such as way that they really need
to keep more liquidity than was once thought necessary..."
In this issue of
The Institutional Risk Analyst, IRA, we feature
a timely conversation with Dr. George Selgin, senior
fellow and director of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at
the Cato Institute and Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of
Georgia. He is the author of a number of books, including Floored!
How a Misguided Fed Experiment Deepened and Prolonged the Great Recession (The
Cato Institute, 2018) and writes frequently on monetary policy,
payments and related topics for Alt-M.
We spoke to Dr. Selgin last week from his office in Washington.
The IRA: George, thank you for taking the time to speak
with us today. Let’s start with the snafu in the world of repurchase agreements
and short-term money markets and then move to the equally important question of
payments. First thing, how do you explain the liquidity problems seen in the
REPO market over the past year to ordinary citizens and particularly members of
Congress? More important, how do you link the policy
narrative coming from the Federal Open Market Committee with what the Fed is
actually doing in the markets? The two often seem disconnected.
---
Listen
this other VIDEO sobre el mismo
tema:
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Selgin: Those are some big questions. You start by
observing that for some decades now the Fed like other central banks has
insisted that its task is to regulate short-term interest rates. So, when
interest rates do something that the Fed has not planned for them to do, that’s
a problem. If the Fed isn’t able
to control interest rates, then what is it doing and what is it able to do? I’d
start with that premise, that the Fed is supposed to be able to keep interest
rates on the desired target or target range, but in fact has been having
trouble doing so. It had trouble keeping rates in line in September and it may
soon have trouble doing so again.
The IRA: Well, investors may not cooperate. The whole
idea of targeting interest rates, as you noted in your book “Floored,”
essentially amounts to the nationalization of a heretofore private financial
market. But do continue.
Selgin: The
second point to make is that under the post 2008 system, banks are supposed to
have all kinds of liquidity; they should have so much liquidity
that they never have to resort to borrowing from other banks to cover
shortfalls in reserves. But things haven’t turned out that way. It was the
desire of some banks to cover reserve shortfalls, for example, plus the
unwillingness of other banks to lend was the proximate cause of problems in
September and may become one again.
The IRA: Indeed. Isn’t it remarkable to
see Fed Governor Randal Quarles at
the Fed and Zoltan Pozsar at Credit Suisse (CS) each put
various pieces of the puzzle forward for our consideration, but no one really
talks about your point namely the idiosyncratic behavior of individual
banks. Wells Fargo (WFC),
for example, has 15% more liquidity than it needs to fulfill the liquidity
coverage ratio (LCR) and other tests. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) likewise is no longer providing
liquidity to the markets as year-end approaches. Trillions of dollars in
liquidity is essentially out of the market.
Selgin: That’s right. There are two ways to understand
why reserves ended up in short supply. One which the Fed has tended to
emphasize is that the Fed
miscalculated how many reserves would be required to keep the system flush,
particularly in making plans for reducing the size of the balance sheet starting
in October 2017. Consequently, it seems to have overdone things a little bit.
The IRA: Ya think? Do our colleagues in the Fed system
appreciate just how close we came to running the ship aground? Last December
particularly?
Selgin: I
think they do now! What they don’t appreciate enough, but are coming around to
appreciating, is that the problem is not simply that there are not enough total
reserves in the system, but that those reserves are concentrated in a few large
banks, including Wells but also others. And they failed to reckon with the fact that, even though these banks on
paper had sufficient liquidity to meet the LCR rule and other liquidity
requirements, in fact they did not feel comfortable lending out what seems to
be a surfeit of reserves—not even in response to high rates and for
short periods.
The IRA: Or even to their own people. We reported on one
case where the bank side of a certain money center essentially told the capital
markets desk of the same bank that they had to pay those elevated market rates.
….
CONTINUE READING AT:
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
You wouldn't know it by watching CNN...
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"Democrats don’t like Trump and his
demeanor, so they have decided to criminalize politics.”
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Do they
reveal why he couldn't find all that FBI FISA abuse?
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"If you make a mockery of the impeachment process by presenting
amazingly weak charges, then expect
a trial of the monkeys presenting the charges..."
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Los dueños del poder
hablan:
IT'S OFFICIAL: MORE AMERICANS NOW OPPOSE IMPEACHMENT THAN SUPPORT IT
IT'S OFFICIAL: MORE AMERICANS NOW OPPOSE IMPEACHMENT THAN SUPPORT IT
While the mainstream media continues to press
ahead with the narrative that 'this matters', America has officially moved
on...
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Both of them read
minds (Reps & Dems} .. Apparently 2 parties but with a single brain
"...from a practical standpoint, it’s difficult to prosecute a serious casebased almost solely on
the idea that you claim to know
what the other guy was thinking..."
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It’s is the brain that suport to manufacture weapons & wars; the
brain that disguise NATO as the dove of peace, and finance QEs & bailouts
for the billionaires & money for secret plan to start WW3. Same brain some B.…t
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"This solemn holiday may be THE DEMOCRAT PARTY’S LAST CHANCE TO AVOID SUICIDE..."
….
Quien
esta a punto del suicidio politico is Trump.
Luego del apoyo que
obtendra en el senado contra el impeachment - lo que será insuficiente para
cantar victoria electoral.. su esperanza de vida política depende de que golpee
a Iran. Y esto podría no ser el inicio del WW3, sino solo una guerra regional
que la ONU se encargaría de desactivar y negociar. La pregunta es si RU y China
+ aliados acepatarian esta derrota. Pero minetras se esperaq la Resol de la ONU
Trump podría decir que ganamos la 1ra
guerra a RU, Chiba y sus aliados. Siria seria
dividido en pedazos e Iran destruido por el 1strike con Misiles y
semi-nukes del US, ISR, de Turcos y Saudis. Si este es el plan y no hay
respuesta belica del otro lado, el negociaod ‘paz” de la ONU triunfa y también
Trump en su re-eleccion. Pero esto solo si no hay respuesta belica del bloke
RU-Chino y no creo en esa posibilidad. Perderian todo el poder que tienen
ganado y el bloque imperial se les iría encima. Creeo si en la respuesta
automática de ellos y también en el efecto inverso. El sistema bancario de
Londres seria bombardeado y también el arsenal militar-nuclear del UK serian
destruidos. Asi el poder de NATO se reduce a la mitad o a nasa. Lo mismo
ocurriría con el bombardeo a Dimona y otros dos centros nucleares de ISR ,
además de los bunkers en Tel Aviv y Jerusalén. El bombardeo al potencial
petrolero Saudi ya no tiene sentido, están en las ultimas, pero si liquidarían su
potencial militar y semi- nuclear. Por
supuesto que habrán soldados muertos en ambos bandos (los 5,000 soldados USA en
Siria, desaparecerían) y lo mas grave
serán las bajas en la población civil de todos los paises del Middle East. Podria
Tramp cantar victoria de la guerra en esa región. Lo dudo. Creo por eso que quien esta a punto del suicidio político es Trump.
Diria que Trump es ya un cadáver político que se va
anticipando a su otra muerte segura. Trump no
tendría que evitar el suicidio que se asume en los Dems. Los muertos no se suicidan.
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global
depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in
limbo
This truly is the battle of this
century. Will a
small cadre of unelected, unregulated, unaccountable thugs be allowed to use the massive power of the state to rule over
the plebs...
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Japan's holdings are back near the widest gap to China's holdings since July 2008...
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In short,
if China does as the USTR claims, the US is a huge winner here (and there are
lots of losers); if China does not comply with what look an impossible import
targets, then the US can frame China as the bad guy and the tariffs can go back
up again.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
====
ALAI NET ORG
INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
Paul Street The
Woman-Hater-in-Chief
John Feffer Whose Coups?
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
- Plea
for Liberation of Julian Assange. Response from the Archbishop of Canterbury By Diana Johnstone,
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
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PRESS TV
Middle East n world news
- Turkey to recognize killing of Native Americans as ‘genocide’
- Hong Kong ‘disappointed with resumption of violent protests’
- Trump to North Korea: ‘We're watching very closely’
- 14 miners dead after southwest China mine blast
- Esper cites US ‘right of self-defense’ in Iraq
- US rejects China, Russia's call for lifting of N Korea bans
- Lebanon postpones PM designation
- Gambians demand President Barrow step down
- Boris Britain to begin persecuting pro-Palestine BDS?
- PROGRAMS
- US-Turkey tensions
- OPCW deception
- Denouncing US Sanctions
- India's citizenship law
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