ND DEC 14 19
SIT EC y POL
ND
denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO
HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal
globalization is over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
... when
the media tells you to ignore history and suggests 'this time may be
different'... That is usually just
about the time when it isn’t.
Not only did the tariffs get delayed, but on Friday, it was reported that
China and the U.S. reached “Phase One” of the trade deal,
which included “some” tariff relief and agricultural
purchases. To
wit:
The U.S. plans to scrap tariffs on Chinese goods in phases, a priority
for Beijing, Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said. However, Wang did not
detail when exactly the U.S. would roll back duties.
President Donald Trump later said his administration would cancel
its next round of tariffs on Chinese goods set to take effect Sunday. In
tweets, he added that the White House would leave 25% tariffs on $250 billion
in imports in place, while cutting existing duties on another $120 billion in
products to 7.5%.
China will also consider canceling retaliatory tariffs set for
Dec. 15, according to Vice Finance Minister Liao Min.
Then from
the USTR:
“The United States will be maintaining 25 percent tariffs on
approximately $250 billion of Chinese imports, along with 7.5 percent tariffs
on approximately $120 billion of Chinese imports.”
See Chart:
Art Of The Deal Versus
The Art Of War
Over the past 18-months we have written
numerous articles about the ongoing “trade war,” which was
started by Trump against China
- China is playing a very long game. Short-term economic pain can be met with ever-increasing levels of government stimulus. The U.S. has no such mechanism currently, but explains why both Trump and Vice-President Pence have been suggesting the Fed restarts QE and cuts rates by 1%.
- The pressure is on the Trump Administration to conclude a “deal,” not on China. Trump needs a deal done before the 2020 election cycle AND he needs the markets and economy to be strong. If the markets and economy weaken because of tariffs, which are a tax on domestic consumers and corporate profits, as they did in 2018, the risk-off electoral losses rise. China knows this and are willing to “wait it out” to get a better deal.
- China is not going to jeopardize its 50 to 100-year economic growth plan on a current President who will be out of office within the next 4-years at most. It is unlikely as the next President will take the same hard-line approach on China that President Trump has, so agreeing to something that won’t be supported in the future is doubtful.”
This Is The Only Deal
This is NOT a “Phase One” trade-deal.
This is a “Let’s get a deal on the easy stuff,
call it a win, and go home,” deal.
Let’s put some hard numbers to this.
Currently, China is
buying about $10 billion of farm produce in 2018. That is down from a peak of
$25 billion in 2012, which was long before the trade war broke out.
See Chart:
Since the trade war was started, China has sourced deals from Brazil and Argentina for pork
and soybeans to offset the shortfall in imports from the U.S. These agreements,
and subsequent imports, won’t be cancelled to shift to the U.S. since at any
moment Trump could reinstate tariffs.
See Chart:
Market share of China
Soybean Imports
More importantly, as
noted by Zerohedge on Friday, if this “deal” was as amazing as claimed, the
agricultural commodity index should be screaming higher.
See Chart:
Importantly, even if
China agrees to double their exports in the coming year, which would be a
realistic goal, it would only reset the trade table to where it was before the
tariffs started.
Trump lost the “trade war,” he just doesn’t realize it,
yet.
No More “Trade Tweets?”
Since early 2018, and more
importantly since the December lows of last year, the market has risen on the
back of continued “hopes” of Federal Reserve easing, and the
conclusion of a “trade deal.”
With the Fed now signaling that
they are effectively done lowering rates through next year, and President Trump
concluding a “trade deal,” what will be the next driver of the
markets. While will the “algo’s” do
without daily “trade tweets” to push stock markets higher?
See Chart:
…..
----
----
US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo
democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge
cambio
"...
this I think is a dangerous,
dangerous thing - not just for us, not just for Julian Assange,
but for the world and the future."
====
"We can’t fully explain why
holdings of cash are rising and where they are going."
…..
Everybody know that billonaires are hiding it in secure
places (bunkers) & or sending to fiscal paradise. The FED should
expropriate those riches…
====
“No matter what
people think the political meaning of the Horowitz report might be, reporters who read it will know: Anybody who
touched this nonsense in print should be embarrassed...”
====
WikiLeaks
publishes more internal OPCW-UN
'dissent memos' casting doubt on Douma incident.
====
….
OF COURSE: AOC is an honest person
& very intelligent: T must be impeached: Read
SOBRE SISTEMAS de GOB y SISTEMAS
ECON Oct 24-2019
====
Senator
Warren and other capitalism critics seldom ask how the system got rigged and what might be done
to undo the rigging...
….
Why? Because
the owner of this sytem (the 1% of billonaries) wanted this neoliberal ismthat feed their gluttony
(QEs % Bailouts) plus tax evasion. Our Nation don’t need a system with big Corp
espending State money in manufacturing weapons & promoting war abroad. We don’t need a FED State with the PENTA and
NATO sacrificing our soldiers in Afghanistan and other places. This is an
inhumane & rigged system that is now collapsing. How to put down this
system? One way is via fair &
inclusive election with a 3rd option as Scandinavian & other
European did it. We need a 3rd option to deflect the chaotic
division inside the duopoly system we have (Reps vs Dems) . This system is
going to explode in civil war and State separatism will come. We need to unite
production investors (not speculators in WS ) with lower middle classes (all of
them have been excluded from the 1%’ financial system. We Need to take
control FED Banks and return to a USD
based on Gold. If Trump is re-elected we
must mobilize people to Referendums state by state & region by region to
support the Public Need not the private Greed. And we will force Trump to a new
impeachment for crimes against humanity and War crimes beside other charges
(tax evasion among them). He will not last in power if re-elected. Read SOBRE
SISTEMAS de GOB y SISTEMAS ECON
----
----
SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL
n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal
expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-'I Expect Tensions to Heat Up Again Once
Election is Over' - Economist on US-China 'Phase One Deal'
----
----
NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am
search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
Opin: ¿Qué sigue en Colombia? Jairo Estrada Álvarez
----
----
INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on
the US political crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
----
----
COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis
on US Politics & Geopolitics
Melvin
Goodman The
FBI: Another Worry in the National Security State
----
----
GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics
& Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
----
----
PRESS TV
Middle
East n world news
- No luck in search for remaining bodies on New Zealand volcano
- Trump: UK wants to do business with US ‘so badly’
- UN negotiators work to salvage climate summit
- Detained migrants' trash inspires US janitor's art
- Cuba urges Latin American unity against 'US meddling'
- People join anti-fascist demo called by Sardines Movement
- ‘US to withdraw 4k more troops from Afghanistan’
- N Korea nuclear tests aimed at subduing US nuclear threats
- Trump regime escalates economic terrorism on Iran
- US threatens Iran after attacks on military bases in Iraq
- PROGRAMS
- US ballistic missile test
- Pensacola attack
- Afghan papers
----
===
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario