ND DEC 6 19
SIT EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal
debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO
HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is
over. Financiers know it, they documented with graphics
It was a torrid week which
started off ugly, with the S&P off to the worst start to a December since
2008 amid fears the trade deal with China would be pushed beyond the Nov 2020
election. However, "optimism" promptly
returned after an "anonymous" Bloomberg article said that the trade
deal remains on track, and subsequent comments by Trump and Larry Kudlow
suggested that talks are progressing, restoring hope that the next round of
tariffs, slated to begin on Dec 15, will be delayed.
And then there was today's
payrolls report, which blew away expectations with a
266K print, 29K above the highest Wall
Street forecast, on the back of a surge in manufacturing jobs, which jumped by
54K, the biggest monthly increase since 1998, as striking GM workers returned
to work.
See Chart:
MANUFACTURING
WORKERS NET MONTLY CHANGE
As a result, after tumbling on
the first two days of the week, the S&P staged a remarkable recovery and closed the week virtually unchanged, while 10Y yield mirrored
every move in risk almost tick for tick.
See Chart:
EMINI
vs 10Y Yiled
A big reason for the continued
impressive rally was APPLE stock, which hit a new all time high above $270 as Tim Cook
continues to repurchase every share he can find. The stock is now up more than 71% YTD.
See Chart:
There was another reason for the return of the stock rally: this week the Fed's balance sheet rose once again, and as we
have shown, in the past 9 weeks ever since the Fed resumed repos and eventually
POMO, the stock market is up every single week when the Fed's balance sheet is
higher; the only week the S&P was lower was when the Fed's balance sheet
also shrank. Surely, it's just a coincidence...
See Chart:
Weekly Change in S&P Emini vs. Change in FED Balance Sheet
As risk soared, safe havens pulled back, and after
sliding as low as 1.70%, the 10Y yield was back in the mid 1.80% range.
See Chart:
Those wondering if the brief volatility spike at
the start of the week was enough to spark a short squeeze in the record VIX
future net short, the answer is no, although for the second consecutive week,
VIX net specs did shrink modestly.
See Chart:
VIX Net Specs
The B-Dollar finally ended its 5-day losing streak,
the longest since late October, with a bang, rising 0.15% on the day.
See Chart:
Bloomberg Dollar Index Daily Change
Brent jumped on Friday, after OPEC announced a
surprise 500kb/d production cut, which however may be insufficient to prevent
an increase in the oil glut. That said, Brent was almost unchanged from last
Thursday following last Friday's plunge amid fears Saudi Arabia may overproduce
to punish those OPEC nations that violated the production quotas.
See Chart:
Brent Crude
Ironically, while retail investors who bought the
S&P are doing great, hedge funds are underperforming the S&P for yet
another year, and many of them are facing a barrage of redemption requests.
See Chart:
Hegde Funds vs S&P 500
Finally, this was and remains a market where one Trump tweet
can mean the difference between a successful and catastrophic year for
countless traders, and something tells us the coming three weeks, which see
both the culmination of trade discussions and Trump's
impeachment, will be anything BUT QUIET.
….
MY OPINION:
TRUMP
IS TRUMPED IN THE KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS
Hugo
Adan. Dec 6 2019
The
article: Wild, Rollercoaster Week Ends Where It
Started After Blockbuster Jobs, Return Of "Deal Optimism" [ vs. DEAD
Optimism ]
Ended
up with this statement:
Finally, this was and remains a
market where one Trump tweet can mean the difference between a successful and
catastrophic year for countless traders, and something tells us the coming
three weeks, which see both the culmination of trade discussions and Trump's
impeachment, will be anything but quiet.
I will be quiet too.. it means that I will continue pushing for Trump out
of power.. but I guess ALL DEPENDS ON THE SUPREME
COURT… Otherwise, the violence chaos will divide our Nation. Election with Trump inside is the start of
violent chaos. Trump must resign: he has not
chances of governability if he win elections. I hope he won’t win, BUT with the current fraudulent electoral
system that allows buying votes and the use of fraudulent machines counting
votes, he could win .
The circulation of elites is
faster in the center of global power that in the periphery, several scholars
said so & I’m seeing the future of Trump with the lenses of political
science. I can’t deny his lessons on power: he defies
key parts of the establishment and I admire him for doing so, but he has not ‘a post-neoliberal agenda’ .
Trump
is trumped in the keynesian economics that
forced the spending of the Govt (specially the State in arms & wars
abroad), plus the spending of consumers & investors to stimulate the GDP.
This Economics doesn’t work any longer,
though with interest rate cut 3 times it foster the power of the rich to buy
more overvalue houses & other market values. Saving & production
investment has been abandoned. Soon or lather the huge debt will hit us
To combat depression by forcing
credit expansion and lower interest
rates, to buy & sell any overvalue
item in market, is like giving free money to them. Manipulating interest rate allow the 1% to be richer. For how long?, nobody knows but everybody
knows that one more QE is coming, plus bailouts for those whose gluttony has not been satisfied.
WHAT
ABOUT THE MIDDLE & WORKING CLASSES?.
The upper middle class who paid
high interest rate for their loans can
get now the benefit of this capitalist expansion for the supper rich, IF and
only IF the lower interest rate is retroactive to their previous loans. If so they could
became a new rich class. IF don’t, they will be the worst enemy of the 1% (the super-billionaires)
.
The middle & lower layers of the middle class didn’t get
nothing (or almost nothing) with previous cuts of interest rates and they will
have lower chances of getting better with
more cuts of interest rates. They
in fact run small business & keep alive the whole economic system ; they
deserve benefits from the new QE coming.
The working classes don’t have real life, the
minimum salary have not been raised for years, they survive in America. The
burden of current capitalist expansion is on their shoulders. Some of them have
loans and if the cuts on interest rate are retroactive to them,
they can alleviate their situation.
We can say that the working
classes & the millennial got nothing
from the current expansion of the rich. The rich will buy robots & high
teck to destroy their current labor-job. The real future for them is a
socialist regime or/and a revolution.
The Keynesian idea that
spending drives economic growth became a trap: the US GDP didn’t growth for
years & less even with the 3 rounds
of interest rate cats. The pumping of
fake USD didn’t make the consumer & investor expending more productive (the
sell of our car-polluters are stopped) . Real industrial production is dying,
what we have instead is the growth of speculation in WS & Chicago.
Our spending in weapons &
wars abroad is the only inhuman business that flourished. And in the mind of
big profiteers of war is the expansion toward China a RU via WW3; that is in
their mind of current US billonaires. Such stupidity didn’t realize the meaning
of MAD (mutual assured destruction) and
don’t care for the life of our nation nor the whole humanity.
The trap of the Keynesian
economics (facilitate consumer & state expending & the buying of houses and other expensive
& over-value items by the rich with lower interest rate ) will not stop the
current economic depression. Not by pumping more USD from the thin air. We
cannot cure evilness with the same means that brought this depression. That was
said by F Hayek, one of the main thinker of liberalism. This miss direction of
production requires to mixing capitalism with socialism, as FDR did it, without
mentioning that taxing the rich was a socialist idea.
We need to place more attention
to the Public Needs; not to the interest of private greed of big billonaires. Trump will try to
reproduce the same system that creates explosive inequality and that is the
path to violent chaos. This system is condemned to explode. That is the main reason
why Trump should abandon his political race.
….
----
----
----
... QE4 is coming. The Fed would
rather have a cushion of ample reserves against unexpected repo market blow ups
than react retroactively with $trillions/month of open market operation
purchases.
See Chart:
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-hasnt-expanded-its-balance-sheet-speed-financial-crisis
----
----
"End The Fed" is no
longer enough...
====
When this
bubble pops, like all bubbles pop, the
remaining wealth of workers and savers, goaded into the market by Washington’s
policies of mass dollar debasement, will die a painful death...
====
Several FX vols reached new
lows last week and most remain close to their all-time lows. In
addition to low ATM vols, USD call skew is also near historically flat and USD
carry remains positive.
See Chart:
JP
Morgan Global FX Volatility Index
….
SOURCE:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fx-volatility-nears-all-time-low-perfect-storm-vol-skew-and-carry
----
----
Using unrealistically low inflation assumptions leads to misguided
policy decisions and
perpetuation of the myth that inflation is under control...
See Chart:
The
impact of the tariffs on Consumer Prices
See more charts
….
----
----
Futures are back to alltime highs,
enjoying a burst of trade deal optimism when first Trump said China trade deal
talks were "moving right along", and then, at 1am ET, China announced
it would waive import tariffs imposed last year on some U.S. soybean and pork
shipments...
====
US DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is
obsolete; it’s full of frauds & corruption. Urge cambio
After weeks of hearings, public opinion is basically
unchanged...
====
Trump Derangement Syndrome
goes supernova...
====
Impeachment law is not for amateurs...
====
Shooter was a
member of the Saudi Airforce sent to the US for training.
….
I read this news yesterday (Thursday 5) & I didn’t
published because time-inconsistence. “The Pensacola Shooting : 4 Killed at
naval air station in Florida, days after deadly Pearl Harbor rampage”. So, this is an old story-tell that has only
one thing in common with the current news: Saudi officer are trained in US
military stations. Another inconsistence: first they said 4 US soldiers killed
& then they said 3. Check this old
news published yesterday Thurs 5 & talking something on Friday: https://wwwrt.com/usa/475239-saudi-shooter-pensacola-navy-base/
Today this ‘news’ is manipulated in different way: In update
4 is said: “Mohammed Saeed Alshamrani,
a member of the Saudi Air Force who was in the US for flight training (so on
official government business)”. It also said that “A member of the Saudi Air Force, per Florida
governor https://twitter.com/kendilaniannbc/status/1203021044925239298 … and since another Saudi was involve in
killing Americans, this candidate running for Florida Gobernor is pending. “Still, police warned they would need "a
little time" before they can make any determinations in the case.”
In update 3 is said that Saudis “attending aviation school in the US, should
raise eyebrows: The last group of Saudi nationals who sought flight lessons in
the US pulled off 9/11.”
However, his name ( of the one
running for Governor) apparently wasn't released
Another shooting?
“The shooter opened fire in a classroom building on Friday
morning, which suggests he was on the base for a reason. The assailant managed
to kill three others before he was killed by officers with the Escambia County
Sheriff's Office, who arrived on the scene and fatally
shot the suspect after exchanging gunfire. FBI and ATF agents also
responded to the scene”. [ So: he was killed ]
“President Trump tweeted that he just received a "full
briefing" on the shooting, and discussed it with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.”
In another update, it is said: “The shooter in Pensacola has
been killed, Escambia County Sheriff’s Office confirmed in a Facebook post.”
They change the number of the killed: not 3 o more but 2, BUT they mention two
shooting: “ Police added that two people have been confirmed dead, including
the suspect, in what was the second shooting on a naval base in the span of 48
hours. Police and ATF agents initially responded to the shooting, according
to ABC
News.”
….
INTRODUCTION TO:
ADONDE APUNTA LA HISTORIETA SAUDI?
1-Nota sobre historia:
A: Es cierto, los Saudis co-participaron en el
atentado terrorista del 9/11 y que al dia siguiente abandonaron el país con el
aval del Presid del US. El efecto fue la brutal guerra en Iraq. Murieron
millones de Iraquis por una mentira que
aquí todos creyeron gracias a la ‘press-titue’: se dijo que Iraq tenia
nuke-missils apuntando al US. Y no era cierto –recién lo es- lo cierto entonces
fue el afán de controlar el petróleo mundial y lo lograron, pero no por mucho
tiempo, RU y los Saudis siguieron siendo los líderes en esa producción.
B: Mas tarde vino la guerra contra Libia donde
Gadafi vendía su petrolea a Italia sin usar el USD y esto más la alianza
autonoma que había construido en el norte de Africa amenazaban no solo el poder
del dollar en el intercambio mundial, también la geo-politica autonomista del
continente africano. Gadafy había construido una red autonomista fuerte pero no armada en Africa. Este era un
mal ejemplo que el imperio quería destruir
y la enviaron para ello a la Sec de Estado -Mrs Hillary Clinton- para
ayudar a los Saudis a poner las cosas en orden.
Cuando Hillary llego a Libya encontró que los
Saudis ya habían quebrado el poder de Gadafi y lo tenían preso y sometido a
torturas. Cuando Hillary llego se ordenó su ejecución. Y ella con los Saudis se
distribuyeron el oro y otras riquezas personales de Gadafy y de la Nacion
entera . Pero a ella lo que más interesó fueron los petro-dolares Saudis y se
sabe que recibió una millonada para entrenar los terroristas Saudis que luego
fueron enviados a Siria y el resto del Middle East.
Cuanto recibió HC? Nunca se supo pues borro de phone-cellular
todo lo referido al negocio corrutpo en
lo que ella estuvo envuelta. Lo peor fue
no dar oído a la demanda de la Embajada del US en Bengazi que había sido
cercada por otro grupo terrorista también Saudi. El embajador y 3 más fueron
asesinados en Bengazi.
Hubo ineficiencia criminal cuando ella cerró
oídos a la demanda de la Embajador de Bengazi. Y nunca Hillary fue procesada
por ello pues también borro evidencias
del phone que pertenecia a las agencias
de inteligencia del US (y si estos tuvieron acceso a esa data, también lo
ocultaron).
En la mente de Hillary, lo que primo no fue lo
que interesaba a la nación Americana (salvar la vida de los sevidores del US en
Bengazi, entre otras). Lo que en ella primo fue su “private greed”, su desmedido
afán por enriquecerse por cualquier
medio.
2- Notice
that at least 2 big News agencies have been involved in lies of recent
shooter of Saudis at Pensacola (Florida). and no one of these news agencies mention
the name of the shooter. THEY CREATED A SAUDI GHOST for
this stupid- fabricated story tell. Pero los SAUDIS si existen y hoy se sabe que andan en migas con los RU..
que no quieren ser blancos de los misiles de Iran ni Turquia.. Se sabe que top
Saudis está dispuestos a negociar la paz con total autonomía del US. Los Saudis
y sus banqueros en Londres temen que de darse el WW3 aquellos misiles les
destruyan su riqueza mal habida. Hay temor.. Pero por que? si también ellos tienen
‘nuke-missils’. Es que el US no les dio les dio los códigos para su uso? Muy
posible: RU lo hizo en Cuba.
3- El contexto actual no está claro para los
Saudis, solo se sabe que las viejas alianzas del US ya se están quebrando.
Francia, Alemania y Japón empiezan a caminar por cuenta propia. Y si hay WW3
solo el UK apoyaría al US y es justo hacia allí adonde apuntan los misisles de
RU-China e Iran; quizá también los del India. Es cierto que RU y China hacen
serios esfuerzos por evitar el WW3. Pero si ocurre No habrá vencedores, solo
destrucción mundial y millones de muertos en ambos frentes, el MAD prevalecerá.
Pero a la vez RU-China e IRAN se
preparan para el evento WW3 en caso ocurra. La política Econ de Trump depende
de la guerra y venta de armas y si Trump es ‘impeached’, es posible que declare
el WW3, si la Corte Suprema no lo obliga a irse.
….
MY FINAL
COMMENT IS PENDING:
ADONDE APUNTA la HISTORIETA SAUDI? Where this
story-tales goes to?
That will be my next article
----
----
"It's usually easier to criticize than to make
efforts to agree on solutions. But we are going to need more emphasis on
the latter in the years ahead if
our society is to thrive and survive."
====
US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China,
RU, Iran search for State socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
...since
we are all conditioned by
environment and career risk in short term, portfolio managers did what
they are supposed to do in November to keep their bonus and job intact by buying what matters most -
“EQUITIES”
See Chart:
Global
GDP vs Equities
see
more charts at:
----
----
The group of more than 20 producers
agreed to an extra 500,000 barrels per day in cuts for the first quarter of
2020, taking the total to 1.7 million bpd, or 1.7% of global demand.
====
SPUTNIK
and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO ..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars
& danger of WW3
----
----
NOTICIAS
IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to
neo-fascist regimes & terrorist imperial chaos
ALAI NET ORG
----
----
INFORMATION
CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political
crisis: neofascism & internal conflicts that favor WW3
-----
----
COUNTER
PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics &
Geopolitics
Jeffrey
St. Clair Eat an
Impeachment
Dave
Lindorff It’s
Impeachment of Trump That is Essential
Forrest
Hylton Bolivia’s
Coup Govt: a Far-Right Horror Show
Ellen
Isaacs The
Audacity of Hypocrisy
----
----
GLOBAL
RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol
crisis that leads to more business-wars from US-NATO allies
----
----
DEMOCRACY
NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
----
====
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario