ND DEC 24 19
SIT EC y POL
ND denounce
Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social + Capit-compet in Eco
FELIZ
NAVIDAD y PROSPERO AÑO NUEVO
La navidad
es día de paz, reconciliación y unidad familiar
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
"If
the market never reacted negatively to all the bad news that it had to digest
throughout 2019, aren’t they already pricing in all the good things that may or
may not come?"
See Chart:
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See more interesting charts at:
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-has-priced-fastest-economic-recovery-financial-crisis
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Only Trump can ruin the Economy more than it is now
"The
reception, far below predecessors, may have been partly due to mixed critical
reviews."
See Chart:
Theater stocks have exhibited
declines throughout most of the year.
See Chart:
You will find more infographics at Statista
The movie theater industry is always changing, there are ups
and downs, but these days -- it's in a secular decline as streaming services
have undoubtedly changed consumer preferences of how they watch movies. So in the next decade, or let's say by 2030 -- will movie theaters even
exist?
….
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As one would expect volumes today
were dismal, around 50% below average (pro-rata) ahead of the early close...
See Chart:
Bonds were bid after a very strong
5Y auction
See Chart:
Today's drop in yields erased
yesterday's price losses...
See Chart:
Here's why Small Caps were bid -
Shorts squeezed out of the gate again...
See Chart:
The Dollar trod water once again -
following a similar pattern to yesterday...
See Chart:
And oil vol is less than half what
it was last Xmas Eve...
See Chart:
Finally, we note the difference
between now and one year ago exactly...
See Chart:
Fear & Greed Index Xmas eve 2019 vs. Xmas Eve 2018
And here's why the ‘grate bubble:: .. The addition
of $5 trillion in global liquidity!!
See Chart:
Global Liquidity Proxi S&P
Is Jay Powell the real ‘Santa’?
[ or a true ‘Satanas’ ]
….
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The sale of
$41 billion in 5Y notes was nothing short of stellar, with the high yield
stopping through the When Issued by a whopping 1.6bps, the biggest stop through
since February 2016.
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The idea that money
printing is an insurance policy that does not come with a cost is simply wrong...
See Chart:
FED Balance Sheet (USD Millions)
REPO CRISIS
The Fed is in fight-or-flight mode because there are very
real credit bottlenecks in the plumbing of the banking system that have created
a US Treasury funding emergency. The central bank has been forced to add $364
billion of Treasury securities to its balance sheet over last four months and
has committed to another $471 billion though mid-January. The money printing
was necessary to fight a repo market funding shortage that warns of a systemic
financial crisis in the making. Usually when the repo alarm bell flashes, it’s
too late.
The 10-year yield had its biggest year-over-year decline
ever. After such a move, this trade simply became too crowded. In our
view, it has already played out. Today, we believe
there is a strong case for rising global yields on the long end of the curve as
we explain below.
See Chart:
US 10 Y Yield
RUNNING HOT
The Fed’s monetary policy is running hot and long-term
interest rates aren’t aligned accordingly… For instance, the 10-yr yield vs.
the Baseline Taylor Rule rate is now at its most extreme in 44 years. Inflation
became a problem during all times this spread went negative. What makes this
issue even more unique is the fact that on top of
running an extreme loose rate policy, the Fed is printing money in a massive
way. It’s hard to say monetary policy won’t come at a major cost this time.
See Chart:
US 10 Y Yield -Taylor Rule Rate
Below are similar disparities across
the globe to consider.
See Table:
THE LABOR MARKET
AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE – FALLING INTO PLACE
Stocks are on pace for their best performance in 22 years
all the while many key fundamentals such as corporate earnings and industrial
production have been deteriorating all year. Continued
gains for the broad stock market in 2020 are highly improbable in our
view as even more of the key fundamentals in the jobs
and consumer market are only just starting to roll over from exuberant extremes.
See Chart:
S&P 500 Annual Performance
The ADP report calls into question the more optimistic BLS
job numbers with the largest negative divergence since 2010. The year-over-year
change for ADP payrolls is decelerating in a pattern last seen directly ahead
of the Global Financial Crisis. What’s crucial is that
the 3-month rolling average of ADP payrolls leads the rate of change in
unemployment rate by 3 months with a correlation of almost 0.9!
See Chart:
US LABOR MARKET
US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
We have likely reached peak consumer complacency, another
key piece of the macro puzzle. After retesting tech bubble levels, the
Bloomberg Personal Finance Survey index is now falling and significantly
diverging from the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence. With the jobs market topping out, we believe consumer
confidence will be the next shoe to drop.
See Chart:
US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
COST OF
CAPITAL POISED TO RISE
The bull case for stocks rests on one major liquidity force,
the cost of capital. That’s driven by the availability of credit and the
strength of company fundamentals. When looking at equities broadly, aggregate earnings
per share for Russell 3000 index just started to fall on a year over year basis. Furthermore, corporate balance sheets never looked so weak.
For instance, the Bloomberg Barclay
High Yield (Ex-Energy) Index today is at its lowest premium to 10-year
Treasuries since June of 2007.
See Chart:
We believe this shift in mindset is already forcing
companies to either raise prices of goods and services or cut costs to improve
margins, and we expect this trend to continue. These
changes should have a significant impact on consumer prices, labor markets, and
the business cycle.
In this backdrop, we question if the demand for low-rated
bonds will remain strong relative to higher quality assets. Junk bonds only yield 180 basis points higher than median
CPI! It’s the lowest level in the history of the data.
See Chart:
Junk Bonds Real Yields (Ex Energy)
PRECIOUS
METALS
We believe strongly that this time monetary policy will come
at a cost. Look in the chart below at how the new wave of global money printing just initiated by the Fed in response
to the Treasury market funding crisis is highly likely to pull depressed gold
prices up with it.
See Chart:
Global Central Bank Assets vs gold
ZERO
DISCOUNTING FOR INFLATION RISK TODAY
With historic Federal debt relative to GDP and large
deficits into the future as far as the eye can see, if the global financial
markets cannot absorb the increase in Treasury debt, the Fed will be forced to
monetize it even more. The problem is that the Fed’s panic money printing at
this point in the economic cycle may hasten the unwinding of the imbalances it
is so desperate to maintain because it has perversely fed the last-gasp melt up
of speculation in already record over-valued and extended equity and corporate
credit markets. It is reminiscent of when the Fed injected emergency cash into
the repo market at the peak of the tech bubble at the end of 1999 to fend off a
potential Y2K computer glitch that led to that market and business cycle top.
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
Another
bite at the apple?
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Could come the Scorpion bite. If crimes against humanity is the aim
====
The sheer number of people
involved in just the FBI scandal is phenomenal...
….
Trump got the PENTAGON & Dems the FBI. The one who get the People
win. There was not “great cover up”. It was a sisi & weak cover up. Now we
may have a great open up.. starting with election IF & only IF we have free & fair elections. This implies starting
by cutting the freedom from billionaires’
to buying election. This is fraud, worse if they control the machines to
counting votes. Fair election mans ‘inclusion” and it implies to include the 3rd
option in the distribution of power. The ideal
is: 50% of power to winner, 30% to the 2nd voted party and
20% to the 3rd option, it doesn’t matter the amount of votes each
get in the ballot-box . This 3rd option open the chance to mediate
the stupid conflict bet Dems & Reps (both financed by same/similar corp ). To
get this point we need an asap meeting bet
Dems-Reps to reform the current
electoral rules. With the current one whoever wins won’t have chances of
governability. The obsolete duopoly system we have will lead to rush political
confrontation and possible civil war. That is more clear than water.
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Current neoliberal research: an enemy of future generation.
"...this ‘invisible’ approach could create new possibilities for data storage, biosensing, and vaccine
applications that could improve how medical care is
provided..."
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There are only two constitutionally viable alternatives: either Pelosi
must announce that Trump has not
been impeached; or the Senate mustinitiate a trial...
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Are we on the right track as
a nation?
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
WW3 IS CLOSE:
Geopolitics has moved from a slow-moving, relatively predictable chess
match to rapidly evolving 3-D
chess in which the rules keep changing inunpredictable ways.
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Andrei Martyanov’s latest book provides unceasing evidence about the kind of lethality waiting for U.S. forces in
a possible, future war against real armies (not the Taliban or Saddam
Hussein’s)...
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...the launch of the first
ever floating nuclear power plant has become an important
engineering breakthrough that will
impact the energy sphere on a global scale...
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"The
US quest for a partnership with China was fated to fail once China's growth in
economic capabilities was gradually matched by its rising military
power."
….
Trump style of mixing geopolitics
with geoeconomics (uses of military power to force deal & agreements) is a
real obstacle to negotiate with China. We need Chia, they don’t need as. Either
Trump change his style [ impossible in
my view] or we change him (very possible
with both Sanders & Elizabeth Warren alliance. The one who win take the
other as VP).
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...even Stalin found the
Santa Claus aspect of Christmas worth preserving, and he apparently
calculated that a father figure bearing gifts might be useful after all.
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI NET
ORG
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