ND
JUL 15 19 SIT
EC y POL
ND denounce Global-neoliberal debacle y propone State-Social
+ Capit-compet in Eco
ZERO HEDGE ECONOMICS
Neoliberal globalization is over. Financiers know it, they
documented with graphics
This is not a drill.
Watch the video below.
Unfortunally there is not big names on recession, as they
claim. Michael Hudson is not there, neither Richard Wolff, Stephen Resnick and
others
Anyway, I will try this 1 Dollar Show.
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Is America's "longest expansion" really its "longest recession"?
….
“JOBLESS MEN KEEP
GOING: We can’t take care of our own”
By Chamber of Comerce
THE
PERMANENT RECESSION History + Charts:
We can
pretend the strength in EPS was because business has been booming during the
“long economic expansion,” but it wasn’t. We got less production
growth out of this expansion than in any other expansion in US history, and
that is easy to prove with the Fed’s own data. GDP went up, but the rate
of growth in GDP has been in secular decline during each expansion: (Expansion periods are the periods between the gray recession
zones in the Fed graph below.)
See Chart
Now you know why it doesn’t feel like things have really
gotten any better for the average person. They haven’t. We’ve been living the last twenty
years in a trickle-down recession that has only benefited the top 10%. Mostly,
of course, the 1%.
One would think we might have gotten a little extra lift in
GDP percentage-wise for massive amount of extra debt we took on. It’s not just
the government that saddled itself with a shipload of extra debt. Corporations did the same, and total individual debt is
deeper now than before the official “Great Recession” hit:
See Chart:
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/MW-HL737_consum_20190619152202_NS.png?itok=n6BGrPYZ
Employment in
statistics … is a good profession
The main
people assuring themselves of future employment are the statistic manipulators.
They are kept well busy.
Falling out of the
official statistics happens in three main ways:
1) You only remain counted in unemployment
stats for as long as you keep actively seeking work and qualifying for
benefits. Period. Multitudes gave up seeking work years ago and chose earlier
retirement or death or …? The stats stopped counting them when they, for
whatever reasons, stopped looking for work.
2) You also fall off the list as soon as you use up all your available
benefits because that is another way to no longer qualify. Millions used up all
of their available benefits years ago.
3) You fall off the list when you replace your
former full-time job with part-time work.
As a result we have the lowest labor participation rate in half a
century. Even the Fed acknowledges that and
pretends to be mystified as to why that is when it is as obvious as the gray hair
on the Fed chair’s head.
As a result we have the lowest labor participation rate in half a
century. Even the Fed
acknowledges that and pretends to be mystified as to why that is when it is as obvious as the gray hair on the Fed chair’s head.
See Chart:
All of
that makes it easy to have an outstanding looking unemployment number
that really is not representative at all of our labor situation.
REAL unemployment, factoring
all of that back in, looks like the top line in the graph below: (The bottom two lines are the
official measures of unemployment used by the US government and the Federal
Reserve.)
See Chart:
We
count part-time jobs as full-time jobs when we tally “new jobs,” but most of the
new jobs created during this expansion were either part-time jobs that replaced
full-time jobs or were jobs that offered lower pay or lower benefits. In fact, the number of part-time
jobs in the economy is now 40% higher than it was the last time unemployment
was this low! And those jobs typically don’t come with
benefits and typically pay lower wages.
But it gets worse. Besides
not counting new jobs in full-time equivalents, all of those new jobs are
assumed to be additional people hired back into the labor force, but many were
actually the same people counted twice! That is because
they were people who went from holding one good full-time job to holding two
part-time jobs in order to make ends meet, both
of which offer no benefits and lower pay for each hour worked.
All Trumped up
about nothing
According to the
Congressional Research Services’ May, 2019, Report about the effects of the Tax
Cuts and Jobs Act (a.k.a. the Trump Tax Cuts):
This analysis examines the preliminary effects
of the Act during the first year, 2018.
On the whole, the
growth effects tend to show a relatively small (if any) first-year effect on
the economy. Although growth rates cannot indicate the tax cut’s effects
on GDP, they tend to rule out very large effects particularly in the short
run. Although investment grew significantly, the growth patterns for
different types of assets do not appear to be consistent with the direction and
size of the supply-side incentive effects one would expect from the tax
changes. This potential outcome may raise questions about how much longer-run
growth will result from the tax revision.
Real wages grew more slowly than GDP: at 2.0%
(adjusted by the GDP deflator) compared with 2.9% for overall real GDP. Such
slower growth has occurred in the past. The real wage rate for production and
nonsupervisory workers grew by 1.2%…. While evidence does indicate significant
repurchases of shares, either from tax cuts or repatriated revenues, relatively
little was directed to paying worker bonuses, which had been announced by some
firms.
According to the National Income and Product
Accounts (NIPA), actual growth rate [in 2018] was 2.9%,
which is consistent with a small effect of the tax revision, perhaps even
smaller than projected by most analysts…. The data appear to indicate
that not enough growth occurred in the first year to cause the tax cut to pay
for itself….
But this
year will come in better, right? Well, let’s see: the first quarter came in at
about the same as that 2.9%, but pretty much everyone anticipates
the second quarter is about to come in worse. I say, substantially worse. We
shall see.
Lets see how the
trickle-down Trump plan actually panned out for workers:
There is no indication of a surge in
wages in 2018 … compared to history or relative to GDP growth….
A number of firms announced bonuses, which in some cases they attributed to the tax cut. One
organization that tracks these bonuses has reported a total of $4.4 billion.41
With US employment of 157 million, this amount is $28 per worker….
Much of these funds, the data indicate, has been used for a record-breaking amount of stock
buybacks, with $1 trillion announced by the end of 2018.
WHAT? It all went to the
corporate owners? Who could have seen that coming?
I’m pretty sure that is precisely how I
said two years ago this was going to turn out, and people just argued that I’m
a Trump hater, not willing to give the plan a chance. (Actually, I just hated giving the
government a chance to start racking up debt faster than our eyeballs can spin,
knowing the benefits would all inure to the wealthy.)
Therefore, as my
motto originally stated, “It’s been a great
recession for a few.” That’s why I
call my site “The GREAT Recession
Blog.” FOR SOME IT WAS GREAT.
….
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US
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Seudo democ duopolico in US is obsolete; it’s full of frauds
& corruption. Urge cambio
On
SOCIALISM: Entiendo que los Babylons no leyeron los Doc
que envié a la red. Les
recomiendo leer :
Estos
3 documentos están en la serie:
SOCIALISMO EN NUEVA DEMOCRACIA que contiene 10
articulos.
Cuando
los lean creo que los Babylonios estarían en condiciones de un debate abierto
en NUEVA DEMOCRACIA: https://nd-hugoadan.blogspot.com/
Los invito
a este debate público. Mientras tanto guardo mi opinión
sobre el decepcionante art que acaban de enviar a la red:
…
“Run the numbers”? “Fiscally feasible”? Have you been paying
attention, like, at all? Do you
want free money, or are you part of the problem?
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Twitter,
Facebook, Instagram and 'other platforms'
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US-WORLD ISSUES (Geo Econ, Geo Pol & global Wars)
Global depression is on…China, RU, Iran search for State
socialis+K-, D rest in limbo
Xinophobic article: China is the cause of our neoliberal
collapse: high debt. Ridiculous!
"It’s
almost Pavlovian. Rates go down and borrowing goes up. Once they are built up,
debts are hard to pay down without diverting funds from other goals"
"It’s almost Pavlovian. Rates go down and borrowing
goes up. Once they are built up, debts are hard to pay
down without diverting funds from other goals"
See Chart + VIDEO:
And while the developed world has some more to go before
regaining the prior all time leverage high, with
borrowing led by the U.S. federal government and by global non-financial
business, total debt in emerging markets hit a new all time high…
See Chart:
And here is a startling fact: according to Fundamental
Intelligence, a bond market consultancy, Chinese firms accounted for 42% of all corporate
bonds issued in EMs this year, which it
warned raised the risk of defaults next year and in 2021.
As a result of China's ravenous debt appetite, emerging economies had the highest-ever level of debt (both
corporate and household) at the end of Q1, both in dollar terms and as a share
of their gross domestic product, according
to the FT's report on the latest IIF
data.
See Chart:
Breaking down the
debt increase, the combined debts of 30 large Developing Economies rose to
216.4% of GDP in March, from 212.4% a year earlier, sending it to $69.1
trillion in dollar terms, with Gibbs noting that much of the risk
in EM debt was concentrated in the corporate sector
(mostly that of China), where debts were equal to 92.6% of GDP in March —
higher than the comparable figure for the non-financial corporate sector in
developed markets, according to the IIF.
See Chart:
Growing Burden
Another risk: in emerging markets, the IIF said that business is increasingly relying on
short-term borrowing which “leaves some highly indebted
firms more exposed to swings in global risk appetite."
And something else to keep in mind, in prior debt cycles
China never allowed full-blown corporate bankruptcy and debt restructuring, as
insolvent companies were either bailed out or nationalized. Which means that
once the downturn comes, China will be facing a tsunami of defaults the likes
of which it has literally never experienced before.
As for developed countries, the debt auto pilot here is
fully engaged: total debt increased by $1.6 trillion in
the quarter to $177 trillion. That includes $69 trillion in the U.S., where
government borrowing has been on the rise; in other news just the total US debt
is now the same as the debt across all the emerging markets.
….
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The last 38 major quakes this year, going back to the 3rd of May
have occurred along the Pacific
Ring Of Fire...
….
El numero de amenazas de muerte que han
lanzado contra toda humanidad los terroristas del Gbno de Trump es aún mayor, lo que indica que el WW3 puede anteceder
el estallido de la naturaleza (earthquakes) contra los seres humanos.
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"China just makes its numbers up..."
There's just one thing though - the entire surge in retail
sales (and industrial production) seems to have been triggered by an almost unprecedented sudden
surge in auto sales to large (state-owned) enterprises...
See Chart:
However,
absent considerably more liquidity, forced credit injections, or a miracle,
Auto sales are about to hit a wall as China's credit impulse begins to slow...
See Chart:
As
John Rubino recently noted, China, like the US, is getting
progressively less bang for each newly-borrowed buck. There’s
a point at which new borrowing doesn’t just product less wealth but actually
destroys it. The US and China are heading that way fast, while Europe might be
there already.
As Evans-Pritchard, notes, the result is “maximum
vulnerability.”
….
SOURCE: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-15/wont-end-well-lies-damned-lies-chinas-retail-sales-data
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SPUTNIK and RT SHOWS
GEO-POL n GEO-ECO
..Focus on neoliberal expansion via wars & danger of WW3
-Trade
War Targets Foreign Investments in China, Beijing Should Prop Up Economic
Confidence - Pundit
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NOTICIAS IN SPANISH
Lat Am search f alternatives to neo-fascist regimes &
terrorist imperial chaos
REBELION
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ALAI ORG
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RT
EN ESPAÑOL
- Trump sobre la jornada de redadas antimigrantes: "Fue un día muy exitoso pero ustedes no vieron mucho de ello"
- La Unión Europea aprueba sanciones contra Turquía por explorar hidrocarburos en Chipre
- El FMI valora el plan económico de Macri y advirte ante la "incertidumbre política" de cara a las elecciones
- Agente fronteriza latina causa furor y controversia en la Red en plena redada antimigrantes en EE.UU.
- Bombarderos Tu-160 son escoltados por cazas daneses, finlandeses y suecos cerca de las fronteras de Rusia
- Víctimas del multimillonario Epstein instan al juez a no liberarlo antes del juicio por tráfico sexual
- Canciller iraní: La puerta a la negociación está "abierta" si Trump levanta sus sanciones
- Keiser Report "US es el país en el que hay que endeudarse mucho para comprar una casa"
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INFORMATION CLEARING HOUSE
Deep on the US political crisis: neofascism & internal
conflicts that favor WW3
-Idiots Driving World to War By Finian Cunningham
- Iran vs. Spineless Europe. How far will
US-western Threats Go? By
Peter Koenig
-Govt That Tortures Journalists Bans RT From
Media Conf By Caitlin
Johnstone
-"Religious Fanatics Have Hijacked
America's Israel Policy. And They're Not Even Evangelis" By Ori Nir
-US dark money behind Europe’s far right By Mary F and Claire P
-Trump tells progressi congresswomen to 'go
back' to their 'broken and crime infested' countries By Kat T
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COUNTER PUNCH
Analysis on US Politics & Geopolitics
David Altheide The Fear Party
Vincent Kelley Jeffrey
Epstein and the Collapse of Europe
Binoy Kampmark Donald
Trump’s Diplomatic Fake Book
M Hudson – B Faulkner De-Dollarizing
the American Financial Empire
Kathy Kelly Remnants of War
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GLOBAL RESEARCH
Geopolitics & Econ-Pol crisis that leads to more
business-wars from US-NATO allies
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DEMOCRACY NOW
Amy Goodman’ team
-“Fossil
Fuel Stooges” Pence & Trump Deny Climate Crisis as Deadly Rains Slam
Louisiana & South Asia
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PRESS TV
Resume of Global News described
by Iranian observers..
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